Publications
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GBD 2021 Osteoarthritis Collaborators, 2023, Global, regional, and national burden of osteoarthritis, 1990-2020 and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021., Lancet Rheumatol, Vol: 5, Pages: e508-e522
BACKGROUND: Osteoarthritis is the most common form of arthritis in adults, characterised by chronic pain and loss of mobility. Osteoarthritis most frequently occurs after age 40 years and prevalence increases steeply with age. WHO has designated 2021-30 the decade of healthy ageing, which highlights the need to address diseases such as osteoarthritis, which strongly affect functional ability and quality of life. Osteoarthritis can coexist with, and negatively effect, other chronic conditions. Here we estimate the burden of hand, hip, knee, and other sites of osteoarthritis across geographies, age, sex, and time, with forecasts of prevalence to 2050. METHODS: In this systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study, osteoarthritis prevalence in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020 was estimated using data from population-based surveys from 26 countries for knee osteoarthritis, 23 countries for hip osteoarthritis, 42 countries for hand osteoarthritis, and US insurance claims for all of the osteoarthritis sites, including the other types of osteoarthritis category. The reference case definition was symptomatic, radiographically confirmed osteoarthritis. Studies using alternative definitions from the reference case definition (for example self-reported osteoarthritis) were adjusted to reference using regression models. Osteoarthritis severity distribution was obtained from a pooled meta-analysis of sources using the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Arthritis Index. Final prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights to calculate years lived with disability (YLDs). Prevalence was forecast to 2050 using a mixed-effects model. FINDINGS: Globally, 595 million (95% uncertainty interval 535-656) people had osteoarthritis in 2020, equal to 7·6% (95% UI 6·8-8·4) of the global population, and an increase of 132·2% (130·3-134·1) in total cases since 1990. Compared with 2020, cases of osteoarthrit
GBD 2019 Europe Hepatitis B & C Collaborators, 2023, Hepatitis B and C in Europe: an update from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019., Lancet Public Health, Vol: 8, Pages: e701-e716
BACKGROUND: In 2016, the World Health Assembly adopted the resolution to eliminate viral hepatitis by 2030. This study aims to provide an overview of the burdens of hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) in Europe and their changes from 2010 to 2019 using estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. METHODS: We used GBD 2019 estimates of the burden associated with HBV-related and HCV-related diseases: acute hepatitis, cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases, and liver cancer. We report total numbers and age-standardised rates per 100 000 for mortality, prevalence, incidence, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) from 2010 to 2019. For each HBV-related and HCV-related disease and each measure, we analysed temporal changes and percentage changes for the 2010-19 period. FINDINGS: In 2019, across all age groups, there were an estimated 2·08 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1·66 to 2·54) incident cases of acute hepatitis B and 0·49 million (0·42 to 0·57) of hepatitis C in Europe. There were an estimated 8·24 million (7·56 to 8·88) prevalent cases of HBV-related cirrhosis and 11·87 million (9·77 to 14·41) of HCV-related cirrhosis, with 24·92 thousand (19·86 to 31·03) deaths due to HBV-related cirrhosis and 36·89 thousand (29·94 to 45·56) deaths due to HCV-related cirrhosis. Deaths were estimated at 9·00 thousand (6·88 to 11·62) due to HBV-related liver cancer and 23·07 thousand (18·95 to 27·31) due to HCV-related liver cancer. Between 2010 and 2019, the age-standardised incidence rate of acute hepatitis B decreased (-22·14% [95% UI -35·44 to -5·98]) as did its age-standardised mortality rate (-33·27% [-43·03 to -25·49]); the age-standardised prevalence rate (-20·60% [-22·09 to -19
Yousif MG, Hashim K, Rawaf S, 2023, Post COVID-19 effect on medical staff and doctors' productivity analysed by machine learning, Baghdad Science Journal, Vol: 20, Pages: 1507-1519, ISSN: 2078-8665
The COVID-19 pandemic has profoundly affected the healthcare sector and the productivity of medical staff and doctors. This study employs machine learning to analyze the post-COVID-19 impact on the productivity of medical staff and doctors across various specialties. A cross-sectional study was conducted on 960 participants from different specialties between June 1, 2022, and April 5, 2023. The study collected demographic data, including age, gender, and socioeconomic status, as well as information on participants' sleeping habits and any COVID-19 complications they experienced. The findings indicate a significant decline in the productivity of medical staff and doctors, with an average reduction of 23% during the post-COVID-19 period. These results reflect the overall impact observed following the entire course of the COVID-19 pandemic and are not specific to a particular wave. The analysis revealed that older participants experienced a more pronounced decline in productivity, with a mean decrease of 35% compared to younger participants. Female participants, on average, had a 28% decrease in productivity compared to their male counterparts. Moreover, individuals with lower socioeconomic status exhibited a substantial decline in productivity, experiencing an average decrease of 40% compared to those with higher socioeconomic status. Similarly, participants who slept for fewer hours per night had a significant decline in productivity, with an average decrease of 33% compared to those who had sufficient sleep. The machine learning analysis identified age, specialty, COVID-19 complications, socioeconomic status, and sleeping time as crucial predictors of productivity score. The study highlights the significant impact of post-COVID-19 on the productivity of medical staff and doctors in Iraq. The findings can aid healthcare organizations in devising strategies to mitigate the negative consequences of COVID-19 on medical staff and doctors' productivity.
Shin YH, Hwang J, Kwon R, et al., 2023, Global, regional, and national burden of allergic disorders and their risk factors in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2019: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, ALLERGY, Vol: 78, Pages: 2232-2254, ISSN: 0105-4538
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GBD 2019 Meningitis Antimicrobial Resistance Collaborators, 2023, Global, regional, and national burden of meningitis and its aetiologies, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019., Lancet Neurol, Vol: 22, Pages: 685-711
BACKGROUND: Although meningitis is largely preventable, it still causes hundreds of thousands of deaths globally each year. WHO set ambitious goals to reduce meningitis cases by 2030, and assessing trends in the global meningitis burden can help track progress and identify gaps in achieving these goals. Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we aimed to assess incident cases and deaths due to acute infectious meningitis by aetiology and age from 1990 to 2019, for 204 countries and territories. METHODS: We modelled meningitis mortality using vital registration, verbal autopsy, sample-based vital registration, and mortality surveillance data. Meningitis morbidity was modelled with a Bayesian compartmental model, using data from the published literature identified by a systematic review, as well as surveillance data, inpatient hospital admissions, health insurance claims, and cause-specific meningitis mortality estimates. For aetiology estimation, data from multiple causes of death, vital registration, hospital discharge, microbial laboratory, and literature studies were analysed by use of a network analysis model to estimate the proportion of meningitis deaths and cases attributable to the following aetiologies: Neisseria meningitidis, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae, group B Streptococcus, Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Listeria monocytogenes, Staphylococcus aureus, viruses, and a residual other pathogen category. FINDINGS: In 2019, there were an estimated 236 000 deaths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 204 000-277 000) and 2·51 million (2·11-2·99) incident cases due to meningitis globally. The burden was greatest in children younger than 5 years, with 112 000 deaths (87 400-145 000) and 1·28 million incident cases (0·947-1·71) in 2019. Age-standardised mortality rates decreased from 7·5 (6·6-8·4) per 100 000 population in 1990
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