Imperial College London
Alternate

Steven Riley

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Professor of Infectious Disease Dynamics
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 2452s.riley

 
 
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Location

 

UG8Medical SchoolSt Mary's Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@unpublished{Riley:2020:10.1101/2020.10.30.20223123,
author = {Riley, S and Ainslie, KEC and Eales, O and Walters, CE and Wang, H and Atchinson, CJ and Fronterre, C and Diggle, PJ and Ashby, D and Donnelly, CA and Cooke, G and Barclay, W and Ward, H and Darzi, A and Elliott, P},
doi = {10.1101/2020.10.30.20223123},
publisher = {medRxiv},
title = {High prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 swab positivity and increasing R number in England during October 2020: REACT-1 round 6 interim report},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2020.10.30.20223123},
year = {2020}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - UNPB
AB  - Background REACT-1 measures prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in representative samples of the population in England using PCR testing from self-administered nose and throat swabs. Here we report interim results for round 6 of observations for swabs collected from the 16th to 25th October 2020 inclusive. Methods REACT-1 round 6 aims to collect data and swab results from 160,000 people aged 5 and above. Here we report results from the first 86,000 individuals. We estimate prevalence of PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, reproduction numbers (R) and temporal trends using exponential growth or decay models. Prevalence estimates are presented both unweighted and weighted to be representative of the population of England, accounting for response rate, region, deprivation and ethnicity. We compare these interim results with data from round 5, based on swabs collected from 18th September to 5th October 2020 inclusive. Results Overall prevalence of infection in the community in England was 1.28% or 128 people per 10,000, up from 60 per 10,000 in the previous round. Infections were doubling every 9.0 (6.1, 18) days with a national reproduction number (R) estimated at 1.56 (1.27, 1.88) compared to 1.16 (1.05, 1.27) in the previous round. Prevalence of infection was highest in Yorkshire and The Humber at 2.72% (2.12%, 3.50%), up from 0.84% (0.60%, 1.17%), and the North West at 2.27% (1.90%, 2.72%), up from 1.21% (1.01%, 1.46%), and lowest in South East at 0.55% (0.45%, 0.68%), up from 0.29% (0.23%, 0.37%). Clustering of cases was more prevalent in Lancashire, Manchester, Liverpool and West Yorkshire, West Midlands and East Midlands. Interim estimates of R were above 2 in the South East, East of England, London and South West, but with wide confidence intervals. Nationally, prevalence increased across all age groups with the greatest increase in those aged 55-64 at 1.20% (0.99%, 1.46%), up 3-fold from 0.37% (0.30%, 0.46%). In those aged over 65, prevalence was 0.81% (0.58%, 0
AU  - Riley,S
AU  - Ainslie,KEC
AU  - Eales,O
AU  - Walters,CE
AU  - Wang,H
AU  - Atchinson,CJ
AU  - Fronterre,C
AU  - Diggle,PJ
AU  - Ashby,D
AU  - Donnelly,CA
AU  - Cooke,G
AU  - Barclay,W
AU  - Ward,H
AU  - Darzi,A
AU  - Elliott,P
DO  - 10.1101/2020.10.30.20223123
PB  - medRxiv
PY  - 2020///
TI  - High prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 swab positivity and increasing R number in England during October 2020: REACT-1 round 6 interim report
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2020.10.30.20223123
UR  - https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.30.20223123v1
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/83693
ER  -
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