Imperial College London
Alternate

Steven Riley

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Professor of Infectious Disease Dynamics
 
 
 
//

Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 2452s.riley

 
 
//

Location

 

UG8Medical SchoolSt Mary's Campus

//

Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@unpublished{Riley:2020:10.1101/2020.11.30.20239806,
author = {Riley, S and Eales, O and Walters, C and Wang, H and Ainslie, K and Atchison, C and Fronterre, C and Diggle, P and Ashby, D and Donnelly, C and Cooke, G and Barclay, W and Ward, H and Darzi, A and Elliott, P},
doi = {10.1101/2020.11.30.20239806},
publisher = {Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory},
title = {REACT-1 round 7 interim report: fall in prevalence of swab-positivity in England during national lockdown},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2020.11.30.20239806},
year = {2020}
}
Download

RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - UNPB
AB  - Background The second wave of the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic in England has been characterized by high growth and prevalence in the North with lower prevalence in the South. High prevalence was first observed at younger adult ages before spreading out to school-aged children and older adults. Local tiered interventions were in place up to 5th November 2020 at which time a second national lockdown was implemented.Methods REACT-1 is a repeated cross-sectional survey of SARS-CoV-2 swab-positivity in random samples of the population of England. The current period of data collection (round 7) commenced on 13th November 2020 and we report interim results here for swabs collected up to and including 24th November 2020. Because there were two distinct periods of growth during the previous round 6, here we compare results from round 7 (mainly) with the second half of round 6, which obtained swabs between 26th October and 2nd November 2020. We report prevalence both unweighted and reweighted to be representative of the population of England. We describe trends in unweighted prevalence with daily growth rates, doubling times, reproduction numbers (R) and splines. We estimated odds ratios for swab-positivity using mutually-adjusted multivariable logistic regression models.Results We found 821 positives from 105,123 swabs giving an unweighted prevalence of 0.78% (95% CI, 0.73%, 0.84%) and a weighted prevalence of 0.96% (0.87%, 1.05%). The weighted prevalence estimate was ∼30% lower than that of 1.32% (1.20%, 1.45%) obtained in the second half of round 6. This decrease corresponds to a halving time of 37 (30, 47) days and an R number of 0.88 (0.86, 0.91). Using only data from the most recent period, we estimate an R number of 0.71 (0.54, 0.90). A spline fit to prevalence showed a rise shortly after the previous period of data collection followed by a fall coinciding with the start of lockdown. The national trends were driven mainly by reductions in higher-prevalence northern regi
AU  - Riley,S
AU  - Eales,O
AU  - Walters,C
AU  - Wang,H
AU  - Ainslie,K
AU  - Atchison,C
AU  - Fronterre,C
AU  - Diggle,P
AU  - Ashby,D
AU  - Donnelly,C
AU  - Cooke,G
AU  - Barclay,W
AU  - Ward,H
AU  - Darzi,A
AU  - Elliott,P
DO  - 10.1101/2020.11.30.20239806
PB  - Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
PY  - 2020///
TI  - REACT-1 round 7 interim report: fall in prevalence of swab-positivity in England during national lockdown
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2020.11.30.20239806
UR  - https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.30.20239806v1
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/85790
ER  -
Download