Imperial College London
Alternate

Steven Riley

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Professor of Infectious Disease Dynamics
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 2452s.riley

 
 
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Location

 

UG8Medical SchoolSt Mary's Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@unpublished{Riley:2021,
author = {Riley, S and Wang, H and Eales, O and Walters, C and Ainslie, K and Atchison, C and Fronterre, C and Diggle, P and Ashby, D and Donnelly, C and Cooke, G and Barclay, W and Ward, H and Darzi, A and Elliott, P},
publisher = {Imperial College London},
title = {REACT-1 round 8 interim report: SARS-CoV-2 prevalence during the initial stages of the third national lockdown in England},
url = {https://www.imperial.ac.uk/medicine/research-and-impact/groups/react-study/real-time-assessment-of-community-transmission-findings/},
year = {2021}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - UNPB
AB  - BackgroundHigh prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 virus in many northern hemisphere populations is causingextreme pressure on healthcare services and leading to high numbers of fatalities. Eventhough safe and effective vaccines are being deployed in many populations, the majority ofthose most at-risk of severe COVID-19 will not be protected until late spring, even incountries already at a more advanced stage of vaccine deployment.MethodsThe REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission study-1 (REACT-1) obtains throatand nose swabs from between 120,000 and 180,000 people in the community in England atapproximately monthly intervals. Round 8a of REACT-1 mainly covers a period from 6thJanuary 2021 to 15th January 2021. Swabs are tested for SARS-CoV-2 virus and patterns ofswab-positivity are described over time, space and with respect to individual characteristics.We compare swab-positivity prevalence from REACT-1 with mobility data based on the GPSlocations of individuals using the Facebook mobile phone app. We also compare resultsfrom round 8a with those from round 7 in which swabs were collected from 13th Novemberto 24th November (round 7a) and 25th November to 3rd December 2020 (round 7b).ResultsIn round 8a, we found 1,962 positives from 142,909 swabs giving a weighted prevalence of1.58% (95% CI, 1.49%, 1.68%). Using a constant growth model, we found no strongevidence for either growth or decay averaged across the period; rather, based on data froma limited number of days, prevalence may have started to rise at the end of round 8a.Facebook mobility data showed a marked decrease in activity at the end of December 2020,followed by a rise at the start of the working year in January 2021. Between round 7b andround 8a, prevalence increased in all adult age groups, more than doubling to 0.94%(0.83%, 1.07%) in those aged 65 and over. Large household size, living in a deprivedneighbourhood, and Black and Asian ethnicity were all associated with increasedprevalence. Both healthcare
AU  - Riley,S
AU  - Wang,H
AU  - Eales,O
AU  - Walters,C
AU  - Ainslie,K
AU  - Atchison,C
AU  - Fronterre,C
AU  - Diggle,P
AU  - Ashby,D
AU  - Donnelly,C
AU  - Cooke,G
AU  - Barclay,W
AU  - Ward,H
AU  - Darzi,A
AU  - Elliott,P
PB  - Imperial College London
PY  - 2021///
TI  - REACT-1 round 8 interim report: SARS-CoV-2 prevalence during the initial stages of the third national lockdown in England
UR  - https://www.imperial.ac.uk/medicine/research-and-impact/groups/react-study/real-time-assessment-of-community-transmission-findings/
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/85583
ER  -
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