Publications
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Creese H-M, Taylor-Robinson D, Saglani S, et al., 2020, Primary care of children and young people with asthma during the Covid-19 era, British Journal of General Practice, Vol: 70, Pages: 528-529, ISSN: 0960-1643
Around 1.1 million children and young people (CYP)currently receive treatment for asthma in the United Kingdom (UK)(1). The UK performs poorly compared with other European countries in children's outcomes of asthma management and has had amongst the highest number of reported asthma deaths in Europesince 1998 (2). We evaluate evidenceofthe impact of Covid-19 on CYP with asthma and consider what actionsgeneral practitioners can take to protect these children from serious harm.
Sharland E, Long P, Sharland M, et al., 2020, Early origins of oral penicillin dosing for children, Archives of Disease in Childhood, Vol: 105, Pages: 1118-1119, ISSN: 1468-2044
Murray CJL, Abbafati C, Abbas KM, et al., 2020, Five insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, The Lancet, Vol: 396, Pages: 1135-1159, ISSN: 0140-6736
The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a rules-based synthesis of the available evidence on levels and trends in health outcomes, a diverse set of risk factors, and health system responses. GBD 2019 covered 204 countries and territories, as well as first administrative level disaggregations for 22 countries, from 1990 to 2019. Because GBD is highly standardised and comprehensive, spanning both fatal and non-fatal outcomes, and uses a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of hierarchical disease and injury causes, the study provides a powerful basis for detailed and broad insights on global health trends and emerging challenges. GBD 2019 incorporates data from 281 586 sources and provides more than 3·5 billion estimates of health outcome and health system measures of interest for global, national, and subnational policy dialogue. All GBD estimates are publicly available and adhere to the Guidelines on Accurate and Transparent Health Estimate Reporting. From this vast amount of information, five key insights that are important for health, social, and economic development strategies have been distilled. These insights are subject to the many limitations outlined in each of the component GBD capstone papers.
Lozano R, Fullman N, Mumford JE, et al., 2020, Measuring universal health coverage based on an index of effective coverage of health services in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, The Lancet, Vol: 396, Pages: 1250-1284, ISSN: 0140-6736
BackgroundAchieving universal health coverage (UHC) involves all people receiving the health services they need, of high quality, without experiencing financial hardship. Making progress towards UHC is a policy priority for both countries and global institutions, as highlighted by the agenda of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and WHO's Thirteenth General Programme of Work (GPW13). Measuring effective coverage at the health-system level is important for understanding whether health services are aligned with countries' health profiles and are of sufficient quality to produce health gains for populations of all ages.MethodsBased on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we assessed UHC effective coverage for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Drawing from a measurement framework developed through WHO's GPW13 consultation, we mapped 23 effective coverage indicators to a matrix representing health service types (eg, promotion, prevention, and treatment) and five population-age groups spanning from reproductive and newborn to older adults (≥65 years). Effective coverage indicators were based on intervention coverage or outcome-based measures such as mortality-to-incidence ratios to approximate access to quality care; outcome-based measures were transformed to values on a scale of 0–100 based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile of location-year values. We constructed the UHC effective coverage index by weighting each effective coverage indicator relative to its associated potential health gains, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years for each location-year and population-age group. For three tests of validity (content, known-groups, and convergent), UHC effective coverage index performance was generally better than that of other UHC service coverage indices from WHO (ie, the current metric for SDG indicator 3.8.1 on UHC service coverage), the World Bank, and GBD 2017. We quantified
Haagsma JA, James SL, Castle CD, et al., 2020, Burden of injury along the development spectrum: associations between the Socio-demographic Index and disability-adjusted life year estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017, Injury Prevention, Vol: 26, Pages: i12-i626, ISSN: 1353-8047
BACKGROUND: The epidemiological transition of non-communicable diseases replacing infectious diseases as the main contributors to disease burden has been well documented in global health literature. Less focus, however, has been given to the relationship between sociodemographic changes and injury. The aim of this study was to examine the association between disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from injury for 195 countries and territories at different levels along the development spectrum between 1990 and 2017 based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 estimates. METHODS: Injury mortality was estimated using the GBD mortality database, corrections for garbage coding and CODEm-the cause of death ensemble modelling tool. Morbidity estimation was based on surveys and inpatient and outpatient data sets for 30 cause-of-injury with 47 nature-of-injury categories each. The Socio-demographic Index (SDI) is a composite indicator that includes lagged income per capita, average educational attainment over age 15 years and total fertility rate. RESULTS: For many causes of injury, age-standardised DALY rates declined with increasing SDI, although road injury, interpersonal violence and self-harm did not follow this pattern. Particularly for self-harm opposing patterns were observed in regions with similar SDI levels. For road injuries, this effect was less pronounced. CONCLUSIONS: The overall global pattern is that of declining injury burden with increasing SDI. However, not all injuries follow this pattern, which suggests multiple underlying mechanisms influencing injury DALYs. There is a need for a detailed understanding of these patterns to help to inform national and global efforts to address injury-related health outcomes across the development spectrum.
James SL, Castle CD, Dingels ZV, et al., 2020, Global injury morbidity and mortality from 1990 to 2017: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017, Injury Prevention, Vol: 26, Pages: i96-i114, ISSN: 1353-8047
BACKGROUND: Past research in population health trends has shown that injuries form a substantial burden of population health loss. Regular updates to injury burden assessments are critical. We report Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 Study estimates on morbidity and mortality for all injuries. METHODS: We reviewed results for injuries from the GBD 2017 study. GBD 2017 measured injury-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) using the Cause of Death Ensemble model. To measure non-fatal injuries, GBD 2017 modelled injury-specific incidence and converted this to prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs). YLLs and YLDs were summed to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). FINDINGS: In 1990, there were 4 260 493 (4 085 700 to 4 396 138) injury deaths, which increased to 4 484 722 (4 332 010 to 4 585 554) deaths in 2017, while age-standardised mortality decreased from 1079 (1073 to 1086) to 738 (730 to 745) per 100 000. In 1990, there were 354 064 302 (95% uncertainty interval: 338 174 876 to 371 610 802) new cases of injury globally, which increased to 520 710 288 (493 430 247 to 547 988 635) new cases in 2017. During this time, age-standardised incidence decreased non-significantly from 6824 (6534 to 7147) to 6763 (6412 to 7118) per 100 000. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALYs decreased from 4947 (4655 to 5233) per 100 000 to 3267 (3058 to 3505). INTERPRETATION: Injuries are an important cause of health loss globally, though mortality has declined between 1990 and 2017. Future research in injury burden should focus on prevention in high-burden populations, improving data collection and ensuring access to medical care.
Smith HC, Saxena S, Petersen I, 2020, Antibiotic prescribing in the first eight weeks after childbirth, Publisher: WILEY, Pages: 544-545, ISSN: 1053-8569
Smith HC, Saxena S, Petersen I, 2020, What medications are prescribed to women during their postnatal check?, Publisher: WILEY, Pages: 545-545, ISSN: 1053-8569
James SL, Castle CD, Dingels Z, et al., 2020, Global injury morbidity and mortality from 1990 to 2017: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (vol 26, pg i96, 2020), INJURY PREVENTION, Vol: 26, Pages: 165-165, ISSN: 1353-8047
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- Citations: 64
Murray CJL, Aravkin AY, Zheng P, et al., 2020, Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, The Lancet, Vol: 396, Pages: 1223-1249, ISSN: 0140-6736
BackgroundRigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardised and comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of risk factor exposure, relative risk, and attributable burden of disease.MethodsGBD 2019 estimated attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 87 risk factors and combinations of risk factors, at the global level, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. GBD uses a hierarchical list of risk factors so that specific risk factors (eg, sodium intake), and related aggregates (eg, diet quality), are both evaluated. This method has six analytical steps. (1) We included 560 risk–outcome pairs that met criteria for convincing or probable evidence on the basis of research studies. 12 risk–outcome pairs included in GBD 2017 no longer met inclusion criteria and 47 risk–outcome pairs for risks already included in GBD 2017 were added based on new evidence. (2) Relative risks were estimated as a function of exposure based on published systematic reviews, 81 systematic reviews done for GBD 2019, and meta-regression. (3) Levels of exposure in each age-sex-location-year included in the study were estimated based on all available data sources using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression method, or alternative methods. (4) We determined, from published trials or cohort studies, the level of exposure associated with minimum risk, called the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. (5) Attributable deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs were computed by multiplying population attributable fractions (PAFs) by the relevant outcome quant
Vos T, Lim SS, Abbafati C, et al., 2020, Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, The Lancet, Vol: 396, Pages: 1204-1222, ISSN: 0140-6736
BackgroundIn an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries.MethodsGBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of
Wang H, Abbas KM, Abbasifard M, et al., 2020, Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2019: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, The Lancet, Vol: 396, Pages: 1160-1203, ISSN: 0140-6736
BackgroundAccurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019.Methods8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10–14 and 50–54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated usin
Greenfield G, Blair M, Aylin P, et al., 2020, Frequent attendances at emergency departments in England, Emergency Medicine Journal, Vol: 37, Pages: 597-599, ISSN: 1472-0205
Background: A small proportion of patients referred to as ‘frequent attenders’ account for a large proportion of hospital activity such as emergency departments (ED) attendances and admissions. There is lack of recent, national estimates of the volume of frequent ED attenders. We aimed to estimate the volume and age distribution of frequent ED attenders in English hospitals.Method: We included all attendances at all major EDs across England in the financial year 2016–2017. Patients who attended 3 times or more were classified as frequent attenders. We used a logistic regression model to predict the odds of being a frequent attender by age group.Results: 14,829,519 attendances were made by 10,062,847 patients who attended at least once. 73.5% of ED attenders attended once and accounted for 49.8% of the total ED attendances. 9.5% of ED attenders attended 3 times or more; they accounted for 27.1% of the ED attendances. While only 1.2% attended 6 times or more, their contribution was 7.6% of the total attendances. Infants and adults aged over 80 years were significantly more likely to be frequent attenders than adults aged 30-59 years (OR=2.11, 95% CI 2.09 to 2.13, OR=2.22, 95% CI 2.20 to 2.23, respectively). The likelihood of hospital admission rose steeply with the number of attendances a patient had.Conclusion: One in ten patients attending the ED are frequent attenders and account for over a quarter of attendances. Emergency care systems should consider better ways of reorganising health services to meet the needs of patients who attend EDs frequently.
Ma R, Cecil E, Bottle A, et al., 2020, Impact of a pay-for-performance scheme for long-acting reversible contraceptive (LARC) advice on contraceptive uptake and abortion in British primary care: An interrupted time series study, PLoS Medicine, Vol: 17, Pages: e1003333-e1003333, ISSN: 1549-1277
BackgroundLong-acting reversible contraception (LARC) is among the most effective contraceptive methods, but uptake remains low even in high-income settings. In 2009/2010, a target-based pay-for-performance (P4P) scheme in Britain was introduced for primary care physicians (PCPs) to offer advice about LARC methods to a specified proportion of women attending for contraceptive care to improve contraceptive choice. We examined the impact and equity of this scheme on LARC uptake and abortions.Methods and findingsWe examined records of 3,281,667 women aged 13 to 54 years registered with a primary care clinic in Britain (England, Wales, and Scotland) using Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) from 2004/2005 to 2013/2014. We used interrupted time series (ITS) analysis to examine trends in annual LARC and non-LARC hormonal contraception (NLHC) uptake and abortion rates, stratified by age and deprivation groups, before and after the P4P was introduced in 2009/2010. Between 2004/2005 and 2013/2014, crude LARC uptake rates increased by 32.0% from 29.6 per 1,000 women to 39.0 per 1,000 women, compared with 18.0% decrease in NLHC uptake. LARC uptake among women of all ages increased immediately after the P4P with step change of 5.36 per 1,000 women (all values are per 1,000 women unless stated, 95% CI 5.26–5.45, p < 0.001). Women aged 20 to 24 years had the largest step change (8.40, 8.34–8.47, p < 0.001) and sustained trend increase (3.14, 3.08–3.19, p < 0.001) compared with other age groups. NLHC uptake fell in all women with a step change of −22.8 (−24.5 to −21.2, p < 0.001), largely due to fall in combined hormonal contraception (CHC; −15.0, −15.5 to −14.5, p < 0.001). Abortion rates in all women fell immediately after the P4P with a step change of −2.28 (−2.98 to −1.57, p = 0.002) and sustained decrease in trend of −0.88 (−1.12 to −0.63, p < 0.001). The largest
Creese H, Mason K, Schluter DK, et al., 2020, Early years pathways to inequalities in childhood asthma? A causal mediation analysis, EUPHA, Publisher: OXFORD UNIV PRESS, Pages: V434-V434, ISSN: 1101-1262
Ram B, Venkatraman T, Foley K, et al., 2020, Impact of school-based physical activity interventions in primary schools: measuring what matters, European Public Health Conference, Publisher: Oxford University Press, Pages: 1-2, ISSN: 1101-1262
BackgroundA growing number of small studies suggest that school-based physical activity initiatives can help children achieve the recommended 60 minutes of physical activity per day. However, the heterogeneity of outcomes and measures used in small studies prevents pooling of results to demonstrate whether short-term health benefits are sustained. Qualitative studies suggest many benefits that are not represented by outcomes in trials to date. The aim of this study was to generate a list of outcomes that have been studied to develop a core outcome set (COS) acceptable to key stakeholders for future studies evaluating school-based physical activity initiatives.MethodsWe searched six databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO, CINAHL, CENTRAL and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews) systematically for reviews of school-based physical activity interventions, and extracted relevant studies to identify the outcomes and measures used in each paper. A long list was generated from the literature and a previous workshop with stakeholders. This study is registered with COMET (#1322), and with PROSPERO (CRD42019146621).Results75/121 cited studies drawn from 53/2409 reviews met our inclusion criteria. We grouped 65 outcomes into 3 domains: (i) physical activity and health (ii) social and emotional health, and (iii) educational attainment. We will conduct two Delphi survey rounds with four stakeholder groups (health professionals, researchers, educators and parents) to rate the importance of each outcome. A core outcome set will be generated from a consensus process.ConclusionsThere is currently a large variation of outcomes and measures studied that precludes evidence synthesis of the impact of school-based physical activity interventions. Consensus methods are needed to focus research on the outcomes that matter the most to key stakeholders and to provide tools for future studies to assess long-term impact.Key messagesVariations in outcomes studied precludes evidence synt
Ma R, Cecil E, French R, et al., 2020, Impact of financial incentives for primary care to give long acting reversible contraceptive advice, Publisher: OXFORD UNIV PRESS, ISSN: 1101-1262
Wiens KE, Lindstedt PA, Blacker BF, et al., 2020, Mapping geographical inequalities in oral rehydration therapy coverage in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000–17, The Lancet Global Health, Vol: 8, Pages: e1038-e1060, ISSN: 2214-109X
BackgroundOral rehydration solution (ORS) is a form of oral rehydration therapy (ORT) for diarrhoea that has the potential to drastically reduce child mortality; yet, according to UNICEF estimates, less than half of children younger than 5 years with diarrhoea in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) received ORS in 2016. A variety of recommended home fluids (RHF) exist as alternative forms of ORT; however, it is unclear whether RHF prevent child mortality. Previous studies have shown considerable variation between countries in ORS and RHF use, but subnational variation is unknown. This study aims to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of relative and absolute coverage of ORS, RHF, and ORT (use of either ORS or RHF) in LMICs.MethodsWe used a Bayesian geostatistical model including 15 spatial covariates and data from 385 household surveys across 94 LMICs to estimate annual proportions of children younger than 5 years of age with diarrhoea who received ORS or RHF (or both) on continuous continent-wide surfaces in 2000–17, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. Additionally, we analysed geographical inequality in coverage across administrative units and estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths averted by increased coverage over the study period. Uncertainty in the mean coverage estimates was calculated by taking 250 draws from the posterior joint distribution of the model and creating uncertainty intervals (UIs) with the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of those 250 draws.FindingsWhile ORS use among children with diarrhoea increased in some countries from 2000 to 2017, coverage remained below 50% in the majority (62·6%; 12 417 of 19 823) of second administrative-level units and an estimated 6 519 000 children (95% UI 5 254 000–7 733 000) with diarrhoea were not treated with any form of ORT in 2017. Increases in ORS use corresponded with declines in RHF in many locations, resulting in relatively co
LBD Double Burden of Malnutrition Collaborators, 2020, Author correction: Mapping local patterns of childhood overweight and wasting in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2017., Nature Methods, Vol: 26, Pages: 1308-1308, ISSN: 1548-7091
An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.
Mainous AG, Saxena S, de Rochars VMB, et al., 2020, COVID-19 highlights health promotion and chronic disease prevention amid health disparities, British Journal of General Practice, ISSN: 0960-1643
Jansen D, Kosola S, Arevalo LC, et al., 2020, Child and adolescent health needs attention now, and in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PUBLIC HEALTH, Vol: 65, Pages: 723-725, ISSN: 1661-8556
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Saxena S, 2020, Routine vaccination during covid-19 pandemic response (vol 369, m2393, 2020), BMJ-BRITISH MEDICAL JOURNAL, Vol: 369, ISSN: 0959-535X
Saxena S, Skirrow H, Bedford H, 2020, Routine vaccination during covid-19 pandemic response, BMJ-BRITISH MEDICAL JOURNAL, Vol: 369, ISSN: 0959-535X
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- Citations: 73
Ruzangi J, Blair M, Cecil E, et al., 2020, Trends in healthcare use in children aged less than 15 years; a population-based cohort study in England from 2007 to 2017, BMJ Open, Vol: 10, ISSN: 2044-6055
Objective To describe changing use of primary care in relation to use of urgent care and planned hospital services by children aged less than 15 years in England in the decade following major primary care reforms from 2007 to 2017Design Population-based retrospective cohort study.Methods We used linked data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink to study children’s primary care consultations and use of hospital care including emergency department (ED) visits, emergency and elective admissions to hospital and outpatient visits to specialists.Results Between 1 April 2007 and 31 March 2017, there were 7 604 024 general practitioner (GP) consultations, 981 684 ED visits, 287 719 emergency hospital admissions, 2 253 533 outpatient visits and 194 034 elective admissions among 1 484 455 children aged less than 15 years. Age-standardised GP consultation rates fell (−1.0%/year) to 1864 per 1000 child-years in 2017 in all age bands except infants rising by 1%/year to 6722 per 1000/child-years in 2017. ED visit rates increased by 1.6%/year to 369 per 1000 child-years in 2017, with steeper rises of 3.9%/year in infants (780 per 1000 child-years in 2017). Emergency hospital admission rates rose steadily by 3%/year to 86 per 1000 child-years and outpatient visit rates rose to 724 per 1000 child-years in 2017.Conclusions Over the past decade since National Health Service primary care reforms, GP consultation rates have fallen for all children, except for infants. Children’s use of hospital urgent and outpatient care has risen in all ages, especially infants. These changes signify the need for better access and provision of specialist and community-based support for families with young children.
Peto J, Alwan NA, Godfrey KM, et al., 2020, Universal weekly testing as the UK COVID-19 lockdown exit strategy, The Lancet, Vol: 395, Pages: 1420-1421, ISSN: 0140-6736
LBD Double Burden of Malnutrition Collaborators, 2020, Mapping local patterns of childhood overweight and wasting in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2017, Nature Medicine, Vol: 26, Pages: 750-759, ISSN: 1078-8956
A double burden of malnutrition occurs when individuals, household members or communities experience both undernutrition and overweight. Here, we show geospatial estimates of overweight and wasting prevalence among children under 5 years of age in 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) from 2000 to 2017 and aggregate these to policy-relevant administrative units. Wasting decreased overall across LMICs between 2000 and 2017, from 8.4% (62.3 (55.1–70.8) million) to 6.4% (58.3 (47.6–70.7) million), but is predicted to remain above the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target of <5% in over half of LMICs by 2025. Prevalence of overweight increased from 5.2% (30 (22.8–38.5) million) in 2000 to 6.0% (55.5 (44.8–67.9) million) children aged under 5 years in 2017. Areas most affected by double burden of malnutrition were located in Indonesia, Thailand, southeastern China, Botswana, Cameroon and central Nigeria. Our estimates provide a new perspective to researchers, policy makers and public health agencies in their efforts to address this global childhood syndemic.
Saxena S, Hakim A, Alexakis C, et al., 2020, Comparison of small intestinal contrast ultrasound with magnetic resonance enterography in paediatric Crohn’s disease, JGH Open, Vol: 4, Pages: 126-131, ISSN: 2397-9070
AimTo compare the diagnostic yield of small intestinal contrast ultrasonography (SICUS) with magnetic resonance enterography (MRE) in routine clinical practice in a cohort of paediatric patients investigated for Crohn’s disease (CD) attending a UK tertiary centre.Methods and resultsPatients with suspected or established CD who underwent SICUS were identified retrospectively. SICUS was compared to conventional trans-abdominal ultrasound (TUS), ileocolonoscopy (IC) and MRE. Accuracy and agreement of SICUS in detecting small bowel lesions and CD-related complications were assessed using kappa (κ) coefficient statistics. Ninety-three patients (median age 15 years, range 2–17, 49 male) underwent SICUS; 58 had suspected and 35 established CD. In suspected CD, sensitivity and specificity of SICUS in detecting CD small bowel lesions were 81.8% and 100% and for trans-abdominal ultrasound (TUS) 85.7% and 87.5%, respectively. In established CD, sensitivity and specificity of SICUS were 98.7% and 100% and TUS 80% and 100%, respectively. Agreement between SICUS and IC was substantial for the presence of lesions (κ=0.73) but fair with TUS (κ=0.31). Agreement between SICUS and IC was almost perfect for detecting strictures (κ=0.84) with a sensitivity of 100% and specificity of 97.6%. When comparing SICUS and TUS with MRE, agreement for the presence of lesions was substantial (κ=0.63) and moderate (κ=0.53) respectively. Agreement between SICUS and MRE was substantial for detecting strictures (κ=0.77) and dilatation (κ=0.68).ConclusionsSICUS offers a radiation-free alternative for assessing paediatric small bowel CD, with diagnostic accuracy that is comparable to MRE and IC, supporting its wider use in routine practice.
Blackwell J, Saxena S, Pollok RC, 2020, Changing trends in coding for depression among the UK inflammatory bowel disease population, GUT, Vol: 69, Pages: 606-+, ISSN: 0017-5749
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Salway S, Holman D, Lee C, et al., 2020, Transforming the health system for the UK's multiethnic population., BMJ, Vol: 368, Pages: m268-m268, ISSN: 1759-2151
Alatab S, Sepanlou SG, Ikuta K, et al., 2020, The global, regional, and national burden of inflammatory bowel disease in 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017, The Lancet Gastroenterology & Hepatology, Vol: 5, Pages: 17-30, ISSN: 2468-1253
BackgroundThe burden of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is rising globally, with substantial variation in levels and trends of disease in different countries and regions. Understanding these geographical differences is crucial for formulating effective strategies for preventing and treating IBD. We report the prevalence, mortality, and overall burden of IBD in 195 countries and territories between 1990 and 2017, based on data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017.MethodsWe modelled mortality due to IBD using a standard Cause of Death Ensemble model including data mainly from vital registrations. To estimate the non-fatal burden, we used data presented in primary studies, hospital discharges, and claims data, and used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, to ensure consistency between measures. Mortality, prevalence, years of life lost (YLLs) due to premature death, years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were estimated. All of the estimates were reported as numbers and rates per 100 000 population, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UI).FindingsIn 2017, there were 6·8 million (95% UI 6·4–7·3) cases of IBD globally. The age-standardised prevalence rate increased from 79·5 (75·9–83·5) per 100 000 population in 1990 to 84·3 (79·2–89·9) per 100 000 population in 2017. The age-standardised death rate decreased from 0·61 (0·55–0·69) per 100 000 population in 1990 to 0·51 (0·42–0·54) per 100 000 population in 2017. At the GBD regional level, the highest age-standardised prevalence rate in 2017 occurred in high-income North America (422·0 [398·7–446·1] per 100 000) and the lowest age-standardised prevalence rates were observed in the Caribbean (6·7 [6·3–7·2] per 100 000 population). High Socio-demogra
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