Summary
My work focuses on understanding infectious disease dynamics through mathematical and statistical modelling as well as outbreak analysis. I have experience in real time outbreak analysis and am interested in vector borne diseases, in particular the influence of climate on transmission dynamics.
Much of my work has policy implications and is driven by the need to answer key questions of public health concern, using different models and methods to solve the problem at hand. I have worked on a wide range of different diseases, including
- Yellow fever
- Ebola
- Malaria
- MERS (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome)
- Pandemic flu
- Avian Flu
VACCINE IMPACT MODELLING CONSORTIUM
I was director of the Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium during the setup phase 2017 to 2018, an initiative that aims to quantify the global impact of established childhood vaccines including Hib, Hepatitis B, HPV, Japanese Encephalitis, Measles, Meningitis A, streptococcus pneumonia, Rotavirus, Rubella and Yellow Fever.
OUTBREAK ANALYSIS
I have experience in real-time outbreak analysis from the 2009 H1N1 flu pandemic (2009), the MERS outbreak (2014), the West African Ebola outbreak (2014 - 2016) and the Yellow Fever outbreak in Angola (2016). In fact, alongside a good dozen other researchers at Imperial College, I am member of the WHO Ebola Response Team, and we have contributed to situational awareness and informed outbreak response through over 70 reports sent to WHO and partners which are based on rigorous data analysis in real time.
VECTOR BORNE DISEASES
I am interested in the influence of climatic and environmental factors on disease transmission. These factors strongly affect the dynamics of vector borne diseases due to the dependence of the vectors on climate. I have worked on Malaria and Yellow Fever and am collaborating with the WHO and the Gavi on estimating the disease burden of Yellow Fever and the impact of vaccination across Africa – the first such estimates in 20 years, with much richer spatial structure than the previous estimates and a rigorous assessment of the inherent uncertainty.
TOOLS
Visualisation of the yellow fever vaccination coverage in Africa
Montagu, a platform to generate, store and report on vaccine impact estimates.
Research GROUP
Dr Zulma Cucunubá (Research fellow) , core scientific team of the VIMC.
Dr Katy Gaythorpe (Research Associate), on evaluating the Yellow Fever disease burden and impact of vaccination of in Africa.
Dr Nicholas Letchford (Research Associate), core scientific team of the VIMC.
Dr Xiang Li (Research Associtate), core scientific team of the VIMC.
Mr Arran Hamlet (PhD student, co-supervised with Prof Neil Ferguson) on the impact of climate on intensity and seasonality of yellow fever transmission.
Mr Obiora Eneanya (PhD student, co-supervised with Prof Christl Donnelly) on mapping the populations at risk of lymphatic filariasis in Nigeria.
FORMER GROUP MEMBERS
Dr Kévin Jean (Visiting Lecturer)
Publications
Journals
Echeverria-Londono S, Li X, Toor J, et al., 2021, How can the public health impact of vaccination be estimated?, Bmc Public Health, Vol:21
Hamlet A, Ramos DG, Gaythorpe K, et al., 2021, Seasonality of agricultural exposure as an important predictor of seasonal yellow fever spillover in Brazil, Nature Communications, Vol:12, ISSN:2041-1723, Pages:1-11
Gaythorpe KAM, Hamlet A, Jean K, et al., 2021, The global burden of yellow fever, Elife, Vol:10, ISSN:2050-084X
Jean K, Raad H, Gaythorpe KAM, et al., 2021, Assessing the impact of preventive mass vaccination campaigns on yellow fever outbreaks in Africa: A population-level self-controlled case series study, Plos Medicine, Vol:18, ISSN:1549-1277
Li X, Mukandavire C, Cucunuba ZM, et al., 2021, Estimating the health impact of vaccination against ten pathogens in 98 low-income and middle-income countries from 2000 to 2030: a modelling study, The Lancet, Vol:397, ISSN:0140-6736, Pages:398-408