Imperial College London
Alternate

Dr Tini Garske

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Senior Lecturer
 
 
 
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Contact

 

t.garske Website

 
 
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Location

 

410School of Public HealthWhite City Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Hamlet:2021:10.1038/s41467-021-23926-y,
author = {Hamlet, A and Ramos, DG and Gaythorpe, K and Romano, APM and Garske, T and Ferguson, N},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-021-23926-y},
journal = {Nature Communications},
pages = {1--11},
title = {Seasonality of agricultural exposure as an important predictor of seasonal yellow fever spillover in Brazil},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-23926-y},
volume = {12},
year = {2021}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - Yellow fever virus (YFV) is a zoonotic arbovirus affecting both humans and non-human primates (NHP’s) in Africa and South America. Previous descriptions of YF’s seasonality have relied purely on climatic explanations, despite the high proportion of cases occurring in people involved in agriculture. We use a series of random forest classification models to predict the monthly occurrence of YF in humans and NHP’s across Brazil, by fitting four classes of covariates related to the seasonality of climate and agriculture (planting and harvesting), crop output and host demography. We find that models captured seasonal YF reporting in humans and NHPs when they considered seasonality of agriculture rather than climate, particularly for monthly aggregated reports. These findings illustrate the seasonality of exposure, through agriculture, as a component of zoonotic spillover. Additionally, by highlighting crop types and anthropogenic seasonality, these results could directly identify areas at highest risk of zoonotic spillover.
AU  - Hamlet,A
AU  - Ramos,DG
AU  - Gaythorpe,K
AU  - Romano,APM
AU  - Garske,T
AU  - Ferguson,N
DO  - 10.1038/s41467-021-23926-y
EP  - 11
PY  - 2021///
SN  - 2041-1723
SP  - 1
TI  - Seasonality of agricultural exposure as an important predictor of seasonal yellow fever spillover in Brazil
T2  - Nature Communications
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-23926-y
UR  - https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-23926-y
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/89862
VL  - 12
ER  -
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