Imperial College London

Dr Thomas Hone

Faculty of MedicineSchool of Public Health

Lecturer in Global Health Systems Research
 
 
 
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t.hone

 
 
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Reynolds BuildingCharing Cross Campus

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Publications

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56 results found

Harding D, Pitcairn CFM, Machado DB, De Araujo LFSC, Millett C, Hone Tet al., 2022, Interpersonal violence and depression in Brazil: A cross-sectional analysis of the 2019 National Health Survey, PLOS Global Public Health, Vol: 2, Pages: e0001207-e0001207

<jats:p>Depression and interpersonal violence are issues of increasing public health concern globally, especially in low-and-middle income countries. Despite the known relationship between interpersonal violence and an increased risk of depression, there is a need to further characterise the experience of depression in those who have experienced violence, to better develop screening and treatment interventions. A cross-sectional analysis was conducted on responses from the 2019 Brazilian National Health Survey. The prevalence of depression (both clinician-diagnosed, and Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) screened) were estimated by type of violence experienced in the preceding 12 months (none, physical violence, sexual violence, physical and sexual violence, or threat of violence). Logistic regression models assessed the associations between violence and depression after adjusting for socioeconomic and demographic factors. Of 88,531 respondents, 8.1% experienced any type of violence. Compared to those not experiencing violence, those who experienced any type of violence had a higher prevalence of clinician-diagnosed or PHQ-9-screened depression (e.g. the prevalence of clinician-diagnosed depression was 18.8% for those experiencing sexual violence compared to 9.5% for those not experiencing violence). Both undiagnosed and untreated depression were also more prevalent in those experiencing any type of violence. In logistic regression models, any experience of violence was associated with a higher odds of depression (e.g. aOR = 3.75 (95% CI: 3.06–4.59) for PHQ-9-detected depression). Experiencing violence was also associated with a higher likelihood of having depression which was undiagnosed (e.g. in those who experienced sexual violence: aOR of 3.20, 95% CI 1.81–5.67) or untreated (e.g. in those who experienced physical and sexual violence: aOR = 8.06, 95% CI 3.44–18.9). These findings highlight the need to consider screening for depression i

Journal article

Mrejen M, Hone T, Rocha R, 2022, Socioeconomic and racial/ethnic inequalities in depression prevalence and the treatment gap in Brazil: A decomposition analysis, SSM - Population Health, Vol: 20, ISSN: 2352-8273

Depression is a major global health burden and there are stark socioeconomic inequalities in both the prevalence of depression and access to treatment for depression. In Brazil, racial/ethnic inequalities are of particular concern, but the factors contributing to these inequalities remain mostly unknown. This paper firstly explores determinants of depression and the treatment gap (i.e., untreated afflicted individuals) in Brazil and identifies if socio-economic and health system factors explain changes over time. Secondly, it analyses income and racial/ethnic inequalities in depression and the treatment gap and identifies factors explaining inequalities through decomposition methods. Data from two waves (2013 and 2019) of a representative household-based survey are used. In 2019, 10.8% of adults were depressed, but over 70% of depressed adults did not receive care. Black or brown/mixed Brazilians were more likely to have untreated depression, and region of residence was the most important determinant of these racial/ethnic inequalities. Notably, 44.6% of the difference in the treatment gap between white individuals and black and brown/mixed individuals was not explained by differences in observables, which could potentially be due to discrimination or difficulties in accessing treatment due to other non-observable characteristics. Employment, age, exposure to violence and physical activity are the main contributing factors to income inequalities in depression. These results suggest that policies aimed at improving the levels of exposure of lower-income individuals to risk factors may positively impact mental health and mental health inequalities, while addressing inequalities in service provision and resourcing for mental health and tackling barriers to access stemming from discrimination are essential to bridge the treatment gap equitably.

Journal article

Stokes J, Turner AJ, Anselmi L, Morciano M, Hone Tet al., 2022, The relative effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on wave one Covid-19 mortality: natural experiment in 130 countries, BMC Public Health, Vol: 22, ISSN: 1471-2458

BackgroundNon-pharmaceutical interventions have been implemented around the world to control Covid-19 transmission. Their general effect on reducing virus transmission is proven, but they can also be negative to mental health and economies, and transmission behaviours can also change voluntarily, without mandated interventions. Their relative impact on Covid-19 attributed mortality, enabling policy selection for maximal benefit with minimal disruption, is not well established due to a lack of definitive methods.MethodsWe examined variations in timing and strictness of nine non-pharmaceutical interventions implemented in 130 countries and recorded by the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT): 1) School closing; 2) Workplace closing; 3) Cancelled public events; 4) Restrictions on gatherings; 5) Closing public transport; 6) Stay at home requirements (‘Lockdown’); 7) Restrictions on internal movement; 8) International travel controls; 9) Public information campaigns. We used two time periods in the first wave of Covid-19, chosen to limit reverse causality, and fixed country policies to those implemented: i) prior to first Covid-19 death (when policymakers could not possibly be reacting to deaths in their own country); and, ii) 14-days-post first Covid-19 death (when deaths were still low, so reactive policymaking still likely to be minimal). We then examined associations with daily deaths per million in each subsequent 24-day period, which could only be affected by the intervention period, using linear and non-linear multivariable regression models. This method, therefore, exploited the known biological lag between virus transmission (which is what the policies can affect) and mortality for statistical inference.ResultsAfter adjusting, earlier and stricter school (− 1.23 daily deaths per million, 95% CI − 2.20 to − 0.27) and workplace closures (− 0.26, 95% CI − 0.46 to −&th

Journal article

Hone T, 2022, Primary Health care as a platform for addressing racial discrimination to “leave no one behind” and reduce health inequities, International Journal for Equity in Health, ISSN: 1475-9276

Journal article

Hone T, Macinko J, Trajman A, Palladino R, Medina Coeli C, Saraceni V, Rasella D, Durovni B, Millett Cet al., 2022, Expansion of primary healthcare and emergency hospital admissions among the urban poor in Rio de Janeiro Brazil: a cohort analysis, Lancet Regional Health Americas, Vol: 15, Pages: 1-13, ISSN: 2667-193X

Background:Robust evidence on the relationship between primary care and emergency admissions is lacking in low- and middle-income countries. This study evaluates how the phased roll out of the family health strategy (FHS) to the urban poor in Rio de Janeiro Brazil affected emergency hospital admissions and readmissions from ambulatory-care sensitives conditions (ACSCs).Methods:A cohort of 1.2 million adults in Rio de Janeiro city were followed for five years (Jan 2012 to Dec 2016). The association between FHS use and the likelihood of emergency hospital admissions and 30-day readmissions were evaluated using multi-level Poisson regression models with inverse probability treatment weighting and regression adjustment (IPTW-RA) for socioeconomic and household characteristics. Inequalities in associations were examined across groups of causes and by key socioeconomic groups. Results:Records from 2,551,934 primary care consultations and 15,627 admissions were analysed. In IPTW-RA analyses, each additional FHS consultation was associated with a 3% lower rate of ACSC admission (RR: 0.97; 95%CI: 0.95, 0.98), a 63% lower rate of 30-day readmissions from any non-birth cause (RR: 0.37; 95%CI: 0.30, 0.46), and an 57% lower rate of 30-day readmissions from ACSCs (RR: 0.43; 95%CI: 0.33, 0.55). Individuals who were older, had the lowest educational attainment, were unemployed, and had higher incomes had larger reductions in ACSC admissions associated with FHS use.Interpretation:Investment in primary care is important for reducing emergency hospital admissions and their associated costs in LMICs. Funding DFID/MRC/Wellcome Trust/ESRC

Journal article

Liu Y, Xiao S, Yin X, Gao P, Wu J, Xiong S, Hockham C, Hone T, Wu JHY, Pearson SA, Neal B, Tian Met al., 2022, Nation-wide routinely collected health datasets in China: a scoping review, Public Health Reviews, Vol: 43, ISSN: 0301-0422

Objectives: The potential for using routinely collected data for medical research in China remains unclear. We sought to conduct a scoping review to systematically characterise nation-wide routinely collected datasets in China that may be of value for clinical research.Methods: We searched public databases and the websites of government agencies, and non-government organizations. We included nation-wide routinely collected databases related to communicable diseases, non-communicable diseases, injuries, and maternal and child health. Database characteristics, including disease area, data custodianship, data volume, frequency of update and accessibility were extracted and summarised.Results: There were 70 databases identified, of which 46 related to communicable diseases, 20 to non-communicable diseases, 1 to injury and 3 to maternal and child health. The data volume varied from below 1000 to over 100,000 records. Over half (64%) of the databases were accessible for medical research mostly comprising communicable diseases.Conclusion: There are large quantities of routinely collected data in China. Challenges to using such data in medical research remain with various accessibility. The potential of routinely collected data may also be applicable to other low- and middle-income countries.

Journal article

Chan JJL, Tran-Nhu L, Pitcairn CFM, Laverty AA, Mrejen M, Pescarini JM, Hone TVet al., 2022, Inequalities in the prevalence of cardiovascular disease risk factors in Brazilian slum populations: A cross-sectional study, PLOS Global Public Health, Vol: 2, Pages: 1-19, ISSN: 2767-3375

BackgroundSocial and environmental risk factors in informal settlements and slums may contribute to increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). This study assesses the socioeconomic inequalities in CVD risk factors in Brazil comparing slum and non-slum populations.MethodsResponses from 94,114 individuals from the 2019 Brazilian National Health Survey were analysed. The United Nations Human Settlements Programme definition of a slum was used to identify slum inhabitants. Six behavioural risk factors, four metabolic risk factors and doctor-diagnosed CVD were analysed using Poisson regression models adjusting for socioeconomic characteristics.ResultsCompared to urban non-slum inhabitants, slum inhabitants were more likely to: have low (less than five days per week) consumption of fruits (APR: 1.04, 95%CI 1.01–1.07) or vegetables (APR: 1.08, 95%CI 1.05–1.12); drink four or more alcoholic drinks per day (APR: 1.05, 95%CI 1.03–1.06); and be physically active less than 150 minutes per week (APR: 1.03, 95%CI 1.01–1.04). There were no differences in the likelihoods of doctor-diagnosed metabolic risk factors or CVD between the two groups in adjusted models. There was a higher likelihood of behavioural and metabolic risk factors among those with lower education, with lower incomes, and the non-White population.ConclusionsBrazilians living in slums are at higher risk of behavioural risk factors for CVD, suggesting local environments might impact access to and uptake of healthy behaviours.

Journal article

Ahmed A, Aune D, Vineis P, pescarini J, Millett C, Hone Tet al., 2022, The impact of conditional cash transfers on the control of neglected tropical disease: a systematic review, The Lancet Global Health, Vol: 10, Pages: e640-e648, ISSN: 2214-109X

Background:Neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) are diseases of poverty and affect 1.5 billion people globally. Conditional cash transfer (CCTs) programmes alleviate poverty in many countries, potentially contributing to improved NTD outcomes. This systematic review examines the relationship between CCTs and screening, incidence or treatment outcomes of NTDs.Methods:A systematic review was carried out. MEDLINE, EMBASE, Lilacs, EconLit, Global Health, and grey literature websites were systematically searched in September 2020 with no date or language restrictions. Controlled quantitative studies including randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and observational studies evaluating CCT interventions in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) were included. Any outcome measures related to the WHO’s 20 diseases classified as NTDs were included. Two authors extracted data from published studies and appraised risk of biases using the Risk of Bias in Non-Randomised Studies of Interventions and Risk of Bias 2 tools. Results were analysed narratively. PROSPERO registration: CRD42020202480.Findings:From the search, 5165 records were identified. Eleven studies were eligible for inclusion covering four CCTs in Brazil, the Philippines, Mexico and Zambia. Most studies were either RCTs or quasi-experimental studies and ten were assessed to be of moderate quality. Seven studies reported improved NTD outcomes associated with CCTs – particularly reduced incidence of leprosy and increased uptake of deworming treatments. There was some evidence of greater benefit in lower socioeconomic groups but sub-group analysis was limited. Methodological weaknesses include self-reported outcomes, missing data, improper randomisation and differences between CCT and comparator populations in observational studies. The available evidence is currently limited, covering a small proportion of CCTs and NTDs. Interpretation:CCTs can be associated with improved NTD outcomes, and could be driven by

Journal article

Seferidi P, Hone T, Duran AC, Bernabe-Ortiz A, Millett C, Seferidi P, Hone T, Duran AC, Bernabé-Ortiz A, Millett Cet al., 2022, Global inequalities in the double burden of malnutrition and associations with globalisation: a multilevel analysis of Demographic and Health Surveys from 55 low-income and middle-income countries, 1992-2018, The Lancet Global Health, Vol: 10, Pages: e482-e490, ISSN: 2214-109X

BACKGROUND: Low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) face a double burden of malnutrition (DBM), whereby overnutrition and undernutrition coexist within the same individual, household, or population. This analysis investigates global inequalities in household-level DBM, expressed as a stunted child with an overweight mother, and its association with economic, social, and political globalisation across country income and household wealth. METHODS: We pooled anthropometric and demographic data for 1 132 069 children (aged <5 years) and their mothers (aged 15-49 years) from 189 Demographic and Health Surveys in 55 LMICs between 1992 and 2018. These data were combined with country-level data on economic, social, and political globalisation from the Konjunkturforschungsstelle Globalisation Index and gross national income (GNI) from the World Bank. Multivariate associations between DBM and household wealth, GNI, and globalisation and their interactions were tested using multilevel logistic regression models with country and year fixed-effects and robust standard errors clustered by country. FINDINGS: The probability of DBM was higher among richer households in poorer LMICs and poorer households in richer LMICs. Economic globalisation was associated with higher odds of DBM among the poorest households (odds ratio 1·49, 95% CI 1·20-1·86) compared with the richest households. These associations attenuated as GNI increased. Social globalisation was associated with higher odds of DBM (1·39, 95% CI 1·16-1·65), independently of household wealth or country income. No associations were identified between political globalisation and DBM. INTERPRETATION: Increases in economic and social globalisation were associated with higher DBM, although the impacts of economic globalisation were mostly realised by the world's poorest. The economic patterning of DBM observed in this study calls for subpopulation-specific double-dut

Journal article

Radó MK, Laverty AA, Hone T, Chang K, Jawad M, Millett C, Been JV, Filippidis FTet al., 2022, Cigarette taxation and neonatal and infant mortality: a longitudinal analysis of 159 countries, PLOS Global Public Health, Vol: 2, ISSN: 2767-3375

Previous studies on the associations between cigarette taxes and infant survival have all been in high-income countries and did not examine the relative benefits of different taxation levels and structures. We evaluated longitudinal associations of cigarette taxes with neonatal and infant mortality globally. We applied country-level panel regressions using 2008–2018 annual mortality and biennial WHO tobacco taxation data. Complete data was available for 159 countries. Outcomes were neonatal and infant mortality. We conducted analyses by type of taxes (i.e. specific cigarette taxes, ad valorem taxes, and other taxes, import duties and VAT) and the income group classification of countries. Covariates included scores for other WHO recommended tobacco control policies, socioeconomic, health-care, and air quality measures. Secondary analyses investigated the associations between cigarette tax and cigarette consumption. We found that a 10 percentage-point increase in total cigarette tax as a percentage of the retail price was associated with a 2.6% (95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 1.9% to 3.2%) decrease in neonatal mortality and a 1.9% (95% CI: 1.3% to 2.6%) decrease in infant mortality globally. Estimates were similar for both excise and ad valorem taxes. We estimated that 231,220 (95% CI: 152,658 to 307,655) infant deaths could have been averted in 2018 if all countries had total cigarette tax at least 75%. 99.2% of these averted deaths would have been in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The secondary analysis supported causal interpretation of results by finding that a 10 percentage-point increase in taxes was associated with a reduction of 94.6 (95% CI: 32.7 to 156.5) in annual cigarette consumption per capita. Although causal inference is precarious due to the quasi-experimental design, we used a robust analytical approach and focused on within-country changes. Limitations include an inability to include data on roll-your-own tobacco, other forms of toba

Journal article

Xiong S, Cai C, Jiang W, Ye P, Ma Y, Liu H, Li B, Zhang X, Wei T, Sun H, Hone T, Peiris D, Mao L, Tian Met al., 2022, Primary health care system responses to non-communicable disease prevention and control: A scoping review of national policies in Mainland China since the 2009 health reform, The Lancet Regional Health - Western Pacific, Pages: 100390-100390, ISSN: 2666-6065

This study aims to review China's national policies related to non-communicable disease (NCD) prevention and control at the primary health care (PHC) level since China's 2009 health system reform. Policy documents from official websites of China's State Council and 20 affiliated ministries were screened, where 151 out of 1,799 were included. Thematic content analysis was performed, and fourteen ‘major policy initiatives’ were identified, including the basic health insurance schemes and essential public health services. Several areas showed to have strong policy support, including service delivery, health financing, and leadership/governance. Compared with WHO recommendations, several gaps remain, including lack of emphasis on multi-sectoral collaboration, underuse of non-health-professionals, and lack of quality-oriented PHC services evaluations. Over the past decade, China continues to demonstrate its policy commitment to strengthen the PHC system for NCD prevention and control. We recommend future policies to facilitate multi-sectoral collaboration, enhance community engagement, and improve performance evaluation mechanisms.

Journal article

Basu S, Hone T, Villela D, Saraceni V, Trajman A, Durovni B, Millett C, Rasella Det al., 2022, The contribution of primary care expansion to sustainable development goal three for health: a microsimulation of the fifteen largest cities in Brazil, BMJ Open, Vol: 12, ISSN: 2044-6055

ObjectivesAs middle-income countries strive to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), it remains unclear to what degree expanding primary care coverage can help achieve those goals and reduce within-country inequalities in mortality. Our objective was to estimate the potential impact of primary care expansion on cause-specific mortality in the 15 largest Brazilian cities.DesignMicrosimulation modelSetting15 largest cities by population size in BrazilParticipantsSimulated populationsInterventionsWe performed survival analysis to estimate hazard ratios of death by cause and by demographic group, from a national administrative database linked to the Estratégia de Saúde da Família (Family Health Strategy, FHS) electronic health and death records among 1.2 million residents of Rio de Janeiro (2010-2016). We incorporated the hazard ratios into a microsimulation to estimate the impact of changing primary care coverage in the 15 largest cities by population size in Brazil.Primary and secondary outcome measuresCrude and age-standardized mortality by cause, infant mortality, and under-5 mortality.ResultsIncreased FHS coverage would be expected to reduce inequalities in mortality among cities (from 2.8 to 2.4 deaths per 1,000 between the highest- and lowest-mortality city, given a 40-percentage point increase in coverage), between welfare recipients and non-recipients (from 1.3 to 1.0 deaths per 1,000), and among race/ethnic groups (between Black and White Brazilians from 1.0 to 0.8 deaths per 1,000). Even a 40-percentage point increase in coverage, however, would be insufficient to reach SDG targets alone, as it would be expected to reduce premature mortality from non-communicable diseases by 20% (versus the target of 33%), and communicable diseases by 15% (versus 100%).ConclusionsFHS primary care coverage may be critically beneficial to reducing within-country health inequalities, but reaching SDG targets will likely require coordination betwe

Journal article

Mrejen M, Rocha R, Millett C, Hone Tet al., 2021, The quality of alternative models of primary health care and morbidity and mortality in Brazil: a national longitudinal analysis, The Lancet Regional Health - Americas, Vol: 4, Pages: 1-9, ISSN: 2667-193X

BackgroundEvidence is limited on health benefits from quality improvement of primary healthcare (PHC) in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). This study investigated whether increasing PHC quality in Brazil with highly-skilled health professionals and integrated community health workers (CHWs) was associated with reductions in hospitalizations and mortality beyond benefits derived from increasing access.MethodsAnnual municipal-level data for 5,411 municipalities between 2000 and 2014 were analysed using fixed effects panel regressions. PHC quality was measured as: i) the proportion of consultations provided by highly-skilled health professionals (doctors and nurses); and ii) the proportion of visits provided by CHWs from multidisciplinary PHC teams. Models assessed associations between PHC quality and hospitalization and mortality from diabetes, cardiovascular disease (CVD), tuberculosis, leprosy, perinatal and maternal causes, and adjusted for PHC access, utilisation, presence of secondary care services, and socioeconomic factors.FindingsA one percentage point increase in the proportion of consultations provided by highly-skilled health professionals was associated with 0•019 fewer deaths from diabetes per 100,000 population (95%CI: -0•034, -0•003; p-value: 0.0167) and 0•029 fewer hospitalizations per 100,000 from leprosy (95%CI: -0•055, -0•002; p-value: 0.0321). A one percentage point increase in the proportion of care provided by CHWs from multidisciplinary PHC teams was associated with 0•025 fewer deaths from CVD per 100,000 (95%CI: -0•050, -0•001; p-value: 0.0442) and 0•148 fewer maternal hospital admissions per 100,000 (95%CI: -0•286, -0•010; p-value: 0.0356). No significant associations were found for the other twenty pairs of exposures and outcomes analysed.InterpretationInvesting in higher-quality PHC models with highly-skilled health professionals and integrated CHWs can deliver reductions in

Journal article

Shimizu H, Pacheco Santos L, Sanchez M, Hone T, Millett C, Harris Met al., 2021, Challenges facing the more doctors program (Programa Mais Médicos) in vulnerable and peri-urban areas in Greater Brasilia, Brazil, Human Resources for Health, Vol: 19, Pages: 1-8, ISSN: 1478-4491

BackgroundA shortage of physicians, especially in vulnerable and peri-urban areas, is a global phenomenon that has serious implications for health systems, demanding policies to assure the provision and retention of health workers. The aim of this study was to analyze the strategies employed by the More Doctors Program (Programa Mais Médicos) to provide primary care physicians in vulnerable and peri-urban parts of Greater Brasilia.MethodsThe study used a qualitative approach based on the precepts of social constructivism. Forty-nine semi-structured interviews were conducted: 24 with physicians employed as part of the More Doctors program, five with program medical supervisors, seven with secondary care physicians, twelve with primary care coordinators, and one federal administrator. The interviews occurred between March and September 2019. The transcripts of the interviews were submitted to thematic content analysis.ResultsThe partnership between the Ministry of Health and local authorities was essential for the provision of doctors—especially foreign doctors, most from Cuba, to assist vulnerable population groups previously without access to the health system. There was a notable presence of doctors with experience working with socioeconomically disadvantaged populations, which was important for gaining a better understanding of the effects of the endemic urban violence in the region. The incentives and other institutional support, such as enhanced salaries, training, and housing, transportation, and food allowances, were factors that helped provide a satisfactory working environment. However, the poor state of the infrastructure at some of the primary care units and limitations of the health service as a whole were factors that hampered the provision of comprehensive care, constituting a cause of dissatisfaction.ConclusionsMore Doctors introduced a range of novel strategies that helped ensure a supply of primary care doctors in vulnerable and peri-urb

Journal article

Pitcairn C, Laverty A, Chan J, Oyebode O, Mrejen M, Pescarini J, Machado DB, Hone Tet al., 2021, Inequalities in the prevalence of major depressive disorder in Brazilian slum populations: a cross-sectional analysis, Epidemiology and Psychiatric Sciences, Vol: 30, ISSN: 2045-7979

Aims:The mental health of slum residents is under-researched globally, and depression is a significant source of worldwide morbidity. Brazil's large slum-dwelling population is often considered part of a general urban-poor demographic. This study aims to identify the prevalence and distribution of depression in Brazil and compare mental health inequalities between slum and non-slum populations.Methods:Data were obtained from Brazil's 2019 National Health Survey. Slum residence was defined based on the UN-Habitat definition for slums and estimated from survey responses. Doctor-diagnosed depression, Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9)-screened depression and presence of undiagnosed depression (PHQ-9-screened depression in the absence of a doctor's diagnosis) were analysed as primary outcomes, alongside depressive symptom severity as a secondary outcome. Prevalence estimates for all outcomes were calculated. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to investigate the association of socioeconomic characteristics, including slum residence, with primary outcomes. Depressive symptom severity was analysed using generalised ordinal logistic regression.Results:Nationally, the prevalence of doctor diagnosed, PHQ-9 screened and undiagnosed depression were 9.9% (95% confidence interval (CI): 9.5–10.3), 10.8% (95% CI: 10.4–11.2) and 6.9% (95% CI: 6.6–7.2), respectively. Slum residents exhibited lower levels of doctor-diagnosed depression than non-slum urban residents (8.6%; 95% CI: 7.9–9.3 v. 10.7%; 95% CI: 10.2–11.2), while reporting similar levels of PHQ-9-screened depression (11.3%; 95% CI: 10.4–12.1 v. 11.3%; 95% CI: 10.8–11.8). In adjusted regression models, slum residence was associated with a lower likelihood of doctor diagnosed (adjusted odds ratio (adjusted OR): 0.87; 95% CI: 0.77–0.97) and PHQ-9-screened depression (adjusted OR: 0.87; 95% CI: 0.78–0.97). Slum residents showed a greater likelihood of report

Journal article

Gaspar RS, Rossi L, Hone T, Dornelles AZet al., 2021, Income inequality and non-communicable disease mortality and morbidity in Brazil States: a longitudinal analysis 2002-2017, The Lancet Regional Health - Americas, Vol: 2, ISSN: 2667-193X

Background:Income inequality can negatively affect population health by increasing social stress and conflict, and reducing trust, public goods and healthcare access. However there is limited evidence from low and middle-income countries (LMICs) with high levels of inequality. This study investigates the association between income inequality, morbimortality and risk factors of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in 26 Brazilian states from 2002 to 2017.Methods:Data was acquired for men and women from the Global Health Data Exchange, the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, and the Brazilian Ministry of Health, totalling 416 state-year observations. Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and risk factors of NCDs were the dependent variables. Gini Index was the main independent variable. Multivariate linear panel regressions were performed, controlling for state and time fixed effects, gross domestic product per capita, population ageing, poverty and access to healthcare.Findings:A 1% increase in the Gini Index was associated with increases in alcohol abuse (of 923•4 DALYs per 100,000 people, 95%CI 217•6 to 1629•0) and diabetes mellitus morbidity (of 893•3 DALYs per 100,000 people, 95%CI 127•7 to 1659•0), and decreases in morbidity from attention disorder (of -4•0 DALYs per 100,000 people, 95%CI -7•4 to -0•5) and autism spectrum (of -2•4 DALYs per 100,000 people, 95%CI -4•3 to -0•5). These associations were greater for men, further supported by associations with alcohol use as a risk factor.Interpretation:This study provides evidence from a highly unequal LMIC, Brazil, of negative associations between income inequality and NCDs, and the importance of addressing wider social determinants of health.

Journal article

Jawad M, Hone T, Vamos EP, Cetorelli V, Millett Cet al., 2021, Implications of armed conflict for maternal and child health: A regression analysis of data from 181 countries for 2000-2019, PLoS Medicine, Vol: 18, ISSN: 1549-1277

BACKGROUND: Armed conflicts have major indirect health impacts in addition to the direct harms from violence. They create enduring political instability, destabilise health systems, and foster negative socioeconomic and environmental conditions-all of which constrain efforts to reduce maternal and child mortality. The detrimental impacts of conflict on global maternal and child health are not robustly quantified. This study assesses the association between conflict and maternal and child health globally. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Data for 181 countries (2000-2019) from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program and World Bank were analysed using panel regression models. Primary outcomes were maternal, under-5, infant, and neonatal mortality rates. Secondary outcomes were delivery by a skilled birth attendant and diphtheria, pertussis, and tetanus (DPT) and measles vaccination coverage. Models were adjusted for 10 confounders, country and year fixed effects, and conflict lagged by 1 year. Further lagged associations up to 10 years post-conflict were tested. The number of excess deaths due to conflict was estimated. Out of 3,718 country-year observations, 522 (14.0%) had minor conflicts and 148 (4.0%) had wars. In adjusted models, conflicts classified as wars were associated with an increase in maternal mortality of 36.9 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births (95% CI 1.9-72.0; 0.3 million excess deaths [95% CI 0.2 million-0.4 million] over the study period), an increase in infant mortality of 2.8 per 1,000 live births (95% CI 0.1-5.5; 2.0 million excess deaths [95% CI 1.6 million-2.5 million]), a decrease in DPT vaccination coverage of 4.9% (95% CI 1.5%-8.3%), and a decrease in measles vaccination coverage of 7.3% (95% CI 2.7%-11.8%). The long-term impacts of war were demonstrated by associated increases in maternal mortality observed for up to 7 years, in under-5 mortality for 3-5 years, in infant mortality for up to 8 years, in DPT vaccination coverage for up to 3 years, and in

Journal article

Bexson C, Millett C, Pacheco Santos LM, de Sousa Soares R, Proenço de Oliveira F, Hone Tet al., 2021, Brazil’s more doctors programme and infant health outcomes: a longitudinal analysis, Human Resources for Health, Vol: 19, Pages: 1-10, ISSN: 1478-4491

BackgroundProviding sufficient numbers of human resources for health is essential for effective and accessible health services. Between 2013 and 2018, the Brazilian Ministry of Health implemented the Programa Mais Médicos (PMM) (More Doctors Programme) to increase the supply of primary care doctors in underserved areas of the country. This study investigated the association between PMM and infant health outcomes and assessed if heterogeneity in the impact of PMM varied by municipal socioeconomic factors and health indicators.MethodsAn ecological longitudinal (panel) study design was employed to analyse data from 5,565 Brazilian municipalities over a 12-year period between 2007 and 2018. A differences-in-differences approach was implemented using longitudinal fixed effect regression models to compare infant health outcomes in municipalities receiving a PMM doctor with those that did not receive a PMM doctor. The impact of PMM was assessed on aggregate and in municipality subgroups. ResultsOn aggregate, the PMM was not significantly associated with changes in infant or neonatal mortality, but the PMM was associated with reductions in IMR (of -0.21; 95% CI: -0.38,-0.03) in municipalities with highest IMR prior to the programme’s implementation (where IMR >25.2 infant deaths per 1,000 live births). The PMM was also associated with an increase in the proportion of expectant mothers receiving seven or more prenatal care visits but only in municipalities with a lower IMR at baseline and high density of non-PMM doctors and community health workers before the PMM.ConclusionsThe PMM was associated with reduced infant mortality in municipalities with the highest infant mortality rate prior to the programme. This suggests effectiveness of the PMM was limited only to the areas of greatest need. New programmes to improve the equitable provision of human resources for health should employ comprehensive targeting approaches balancing health needs and socioeconomic

Journal article

Hone T, Stokes J, Trajman A, Saraceni V, Coeli CM, Rasella D, Durovni B, Millett Cet al., 2021, Racial and socioeconomic disparities in multimorbidity and associated healthcare utilisation and outcomes in Brazil: a cross-sectional analysis of three million individuals, BMC Public Health, Vol: 21, ISSN: 1471-2458

Background:Evidence is limited on racial/ethnic group disparities in multimorbidity and associated health outcomes in low- and middle-income countries hampering effective policies and clinical interventions to address health inequalities.Methods:This study assessed race/ethnic and socioeconomic disparities in the prevalence of multimorbidity and associated healthcare utilisation, costs and death in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. A cross-sectional analysis was carried out of 3,027,335 individuals registered with primary healthcare (PHC) services. Records included linked data to hospitalisation, mortality, and welfare-claimant (Bolsa Família) records between 1 Jan 2012 and 31 Dec 2016. Logistic and Poisson regression models were carried out to assess the likelihood of multimorbidity (two or more diagnoses out of 53 chronic conditions), PHC use, hospital admissions and mortality from any cause. Interactions were used to assess disparities.Results:In total 13,509,633 healthcare visits were analysed identifying 389,829 multimorbid individuals (13%). In adjusted regression models, multimorbidity was associated with lower education (Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR): 1.26; 95%CI: 1.23,1.29; compared to higher education), Bolsa Família receipt (AOR: 1.14; 95%CI: 1.13,1.15; compared to non-recipients); and black race/ethnicity (AOR: 1.05; 95%CI: 1.03,1.06; compared to white). Multimorbidity was associated with more hospitalisations (Adjusted Rate Ratio (ARR): 2.75; 95%CI: 2.69,2.81), more PHC visits (ARR: 3.46; 95%CI: 3.44,3.47), and higher likelihood of death (AOR: 1.33; 95%CI: 1.29,1.36). These associations were greater for multimorbid individuals with lower educational attainment (five year probability of death 1.67% (95%CI: 1.61,1.74%) compared to 1.13% (95%CI: 1.02,1.23%) for higher education), individuals of black race/ethnicity (1.48% (95%CI: 1.41,1.55%) compared to 1.35% (95%CI: 1.31,1.40%) for white) and individuals in receipt of welfare (1.89% (95%CI: 1.77,2.00%) co

Journal article

Alves LC, Sanchez MN, Hone T, Pinto LF, Nery JS, Tauil PL, Barreto ML, Penna GOet al., 2021, The association between a conditional cash transfer programme and malaria incidence: a longitudinal ecological study in the Brazilian Amazon between 2004 and 2015, BMC Public Health, Vol: 21, Pages: 1-9, ISSN: 1471-2458

BackgroundMalaria causes 400 thousand deaths worldwide annually. In 2018, 25% (187,693) of the total malaria cases in the Americas were in Brazil, with nearly all (99%) Brazilian cases in the Amazon region. The Bolsa Família Programme (BFP) is a conditional cash transfer (CCT) programme launched in 2003 to reduce poverty and has led to improvements in health outcomes. CCT programmes may reduce the burden of malaria by alleviating poverty and by promoting access to healthcare, however this relationship is underexplored. This study investigated the association between BFP coverage and malaria incidence in Brazil.MethodsA longitudinal panel study was conducted of 807 municipalities in the Brazilian Amazon between 2004 and 2015. Negative binomial regression models adjusted for demographic and socioeconomic covariates and time trends were employed with fixed effects specifications.ResultsA one percentage point increase in municipal BFP coverage was associated with a 0.3% decrease in the incidence of malaria (RR = 0.997; 95% CI = 0.994–0.998). The average municipal BFP coverage increased 24 percentage points over the period 2004–2015 corresponding to be a reduction of 7.2% in the malaria incidence.ConclusionsHigher coverage of the BFP was associated with a reduction in the incidence of malaria. CCT programmes should be encouraged in endemic regions for malaria in order to mitigate the impact of disease and poverty itself in these settings.

Journal article

Coeli CM, Saraceni V, Mota Medeiros Jr P, Santos HPDS, Guillen LCT, Alves LGSB, Hone T, Millett C, Trajman A, Durovni Bet al., 2021, Record linkage under suboptimal conditions for data-intensive evaluation of primary care in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making, Vol: 21, Pages: 1-13, ISSN: 1472-6947

BackgroundLinking Brazilian databases demands the development of algorithms and processes to deal with various challenges including the large size of the databases, the low number and poor quality of personal identifiers available to be compared (national security number not mandatory), and some characteristics of Brazilian names that make the linkage process prone to errors. This study aims to describe and evaluate the quality of the processes used to create an individual-linked database for data-intensive research on the impacts on health indicators of the expansion of primary care in Rio de Janeiro City, Brazil.MethodsWe created an individual-level dataset linking social benefits recipients, primary health care, hospital admission and mortality data. The databases were pre-processed, and we adopted a multiple approach strategy combining deterministic and probabilistic record linkage techniques, and an extensive clerical review of the potential matches. Relying on manual review as the gold standard, we estimated the false match (false-positive) proportion of each approach (deterministic, probabilistic, clerical review) and the missed match proportion (false-negative) of the clerical review approach. To assess the sensitivity (recall) to identifying social benefits recipients’ deaths, we used their vital status registered on the primary care database as the gold standard.ResultsIn all linkage processes, the deterministic approach identified most of the matches. However, the proportion of matches identified in each approach varied. The false match proportion was around 1% or less in almost all approaches. The missed match proportion in the clerical review approach of all linkage processes were under 3%. We estimated a recall of 93.6% (95% CI 92.8–94.3) for the linkage between social benefits recipients and mortality data.ConclusionThe adoption of a linkage strategy combining pre-processing routines, deterministic, and probabilistic strategies, as well as

Journal article

Siqueira M, Coube M, Millett C, Rocha R, Hone Tet al., 2021, The impacts of health systems financing fragmentation in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review protocol, Systematic Reviews, Vol: 10, ISSN: 2046-4053

BackgroundHealth systems are often fragmented in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). This can increase inefficiencies and restrict progress towards universal health coverage. The objective of the systematic review described in this protocol will be to evaluate and synthesize the evidence concerning the impacts of health systems financing fragmentation in LMICs.MethodsLiterature searches will be conducted in multiple electronic databases, from their inception onwards, including MEDLINE, EMBASE, LILACS, CINAHL, Scopus, ScienceDirect, Scielo, Cochrane Library, EconLit, and JSTOR. Gray literature will be also targeted through searching OpenSIGLE, Google Scholar, and institutional websites (e.g., HMIC, The World Bank, WHO, PAHO, OECD). The search strings will include keywords related to LMICs, health system financing fragmentation, and health system goals. Experimental, quasi-experimental, and observational studies conducted in LMICs and examining health financing fragmentation across any relevant metric (e.g., the presence of different health funders/insurers, risk pooling mechanisms, eligibility categories, benefits packages, premiums) will be included. Studies will be eligible if they compare financing fragmentation in alternative settings or at least two-time points. The primary outcomes will be health system-related goals such as health outcomes (e.g., mortality, morbidity, patient-reported outcome measures) and indicators of access, services utilization, equity, and financial risk protection. Additional outcomes will include intermediate health system objectives (e.g., indicators of efficiency and quality). Two reviewers will independently screen all citations, abstract data, and full-text articles. Potential conflicts will be resolved through discussion and, when necessary, resolved by a third reviewer. The methodological quality (or risk of bias) of selected studies will be appraised using established checklists. Data extraction categories will include the

Journal article

Laverty AA, Hone T, Goodman A, Kelly Y, Millett Cet al., 2021, Associations of active travel with adiposity among children and socioeconomic differentials: a longitudinal study, BMJ Open, Vol: 11, Pages: 1-9, ISSN: 2044-6055

Objectives Examine longitudinal associations between modes of travel to school and adiposity.Setting The UK.Participants 8432 children surveyed at ages 7, 11 and 14 years from the UK Millennium Cohort Study.Primary and secondary outcomes Objective percentage body fat and body mass index (BMI). Transport mode was categorised as private motorised transport, public transport and active transport (walking or cycling). Socioeconomic position (SEP) was measured by household income group and occupational social class. We adjusted analyses for changes in the country of UK, frequency of eating breakfast, self-reported growth spurts, hours of screen time and days per week of moderate-to-vigorous physical activity. Longitudinal (panel) regression models adjusting for individual fixed effects examined associations in changes in mode of travel to school and adiposity, controlling for both time-varying and time-invariant potential confounders. Interaction tests and stratified analyses investigated differences by markers of SEP.Results At age 14 years, 26.1% of children (2198) reported using private motorised transport, 35.3% (2979) used public transport and 38.6% (3255) used active transport to get to school. 36.6% (3083) of children changed mode two times between the three waves and 50.7% (4279) changed once. Compared with continuing to use private transport, switching to active transport was associated with a lower BMI (−0.21 kg/m2, 95% CI −0.31 to −0.10) and body fat (−0.55%, 95% CI −0.80% to −0.31%). Switching to public transport was associated with lower percentage body fat (−0.43%, 95% CI −0.75% to −0.12%), but associations with BMI did not reach statistical significance (−0.13 kg/m2, 95% CI −0.26 to 0.01). Interaction tests showed a trend for these effects to be stronger in more deprived groups, but these interactions did not reach statistical significance.Conclusion This longitudinal study during a key life

Journal article

Shimizu HE, Santos LMP, Sanchez MN, Hone T, Millett C, Harris Met al., 2020, Percepções acerca do Programa Mais Médicos e do Processo de Supervisão Acadêmica [Perceptions about the “Mais Médicos” Program and the Academic Supervision Process], Revista Brasileira de Educação Médica, Vol: 44, ISSN: 0100-5502

Abstract: Introduction: This study aims to analyze the perceptions of the involved actors about the “Mais Médicos” Program (PMM) and the academic supervision process, its strengths and weaknesses aiming to improve Primary Heath Care practices. Method: Qualitative study carried out through 05 in-depth interviews with PMM supervising doctors, and 24 interviews with unit managers, 12 Primary Heath Care coordinators, and 07 Secondary Health Care doctors. Results: Three thematic axes emerged from de analysis: benefits of the program for the municipalities and for the population; the challenges of the supervisory process and the difficulties of the fragmented health system. Conclusions: The actors’ perception of the “Mais Médicos” Program are positive, especially because it brought doctors to municipalities with vulnerable areas, where doctors did not go to and where they did not stay. Supervision is an important support for continuing in-service training; however, it requires a better articulation with the different levels of the health system management. The precariousness of the service network limits the performance of both doctors and supervisors, demonstrating that it is necessary to invest in a solid and effective care network. Moreover, it was once again evident that the population will face a shortage of doctors due to changes in health policies. It is necessary to build more comprehensive policies, that will not only result in sporadic provision of medical care. There is a need for continuous actions, better integrated to the healthcare networks, aiming at an efficient and effective healthcare system.

Journal article

Paes-Sousa R, Millett C, Rocha R, Barreto ML, Hone Tet al., 2020, Science misuse and polarised political narratives in the COVID-19 response, The Lancet, Vol: 396, Pages: 1635-1636, ISSN: 0140-6736

Journal article

Hone T, Saraceni V, Coeli CM, Trajman A, Rasella D, Millett C, Durovni Bet al., 2020, Primary health care expansion and mortality in Brazil’s urban poor: a cohort analysis of 1.2 million adults, PLoS Medicine, Vol: 17, Pages: 1-20, ISSN: 1549-1277

BackgroundExpanding delivery of primary health care to urban poor populations is a priority in many low-and middle-income countries. This remains a key challenge in Brazil despite expansion of the country’s internationally recognised Family Health Strategy (FHS) over the past two decades. This study evaluates the impact of an ambitious program to rapidly expand FHS coverage in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil since 2008. Methods and FindingsA cohort of 1,241,351 million low-income adults (observed January 2010-December 2016; total person-years 6,498,607) with linked FHS utilisation and mortality records was analysed using flexible parametric survival models. Time-to-death from all-causes and selected causes were estimated for FHS users and non-users. Models employed inverse probability treatment weighting and regression adjustment (IPTW-RA).The cohort was 61% female (751,895) and had a mean age of 36 years (standard deviation 16.4). Only 18,721 individuals (1.5%) had higher education whilst 102,899 (8%) had no formal education. Two-thirds of individuals (827250; 67%) were in receipt of conditional cash transfers (Bolsa Família). A total of 34,091 deaths were analysed of which 8,765 (26%) were due to cardiovascular disease, 5,777 (17%) due to neoplasms, 5,683 (17%) due to external causes, 3,152 (9%) due to respiratory diseases, and 3,115 (9%) due to infectious and parasitic diseases. One third of the cohort (467,155; 37.6%) used FHS services. In IPTW-RA survival analysis, an average FHS user had a 44% lower hazard of all-cause mortality (HR: 0.56, 95%CI: 0.54 to 0.59, p<0.001) and a five-year risk reduction of 8.3 per 1000 (95%CI: 7.8 to 8.9, p<0.001) compared to a non-FHS user. There were greater reductions in the risk of death for FHS users who: were black (HR:0.50 (95%CI: 0.46 to 0.54, p<0.001)) or pardo (HR:0.57 (95%CI: 0.54 to 0.60, p<0.001) compared to white (HR:0.59 (95%CI: 0.56 to 0.63, p<0.001); had lower educational attainment

Journal article

Hone T, Powell-Jackon T, Santos LMP, Soares RDS, Proenço de Oliveira F, Niskier Sanchez M, Harris M, Santos F, Millett Cet al., 2020, Impact of the Programa Mais médicos (more doctors Programme) on primary care doctor supply and amenable mortality: quasi-experimental study of 5565 Brazilian municipalities, BMC Health Services Research, Vol: 20, ISSN: 1472-6963

BackgroundInvesting in human resources for health (HRH) is vital for achieving universal health care and the Sustainable Development Goals. The Programa Mais Médicos (PMM) (More Doctors Programme) provided 17,000 doctors, predominantly from Cuba, to work in Brazilian primary care. This study assesses whether PMM doctor allocation to municipalities was consistent with programme criteria and associated impacts on amenable mortality.MethodsDifference-in-differences regression analysis, exploiting variation in PMM introduction across 5565 municipalities over the period 2008–2017, was employed to examine programme impacts on doctor density and mortality amenable to healthcare. Heterogeneity in effects was explored with respect to doctor allocation criteria and municipal doctor density prior to PMM introduction.ResultsAfter starting in 2013, PMM was associated with an increase in PMM-contracted primary care doctors of 15.1 per 100,000 population. However, largescale substitution of existing primary care doctors resulting in a net increase of only 5.7 per 100,000. Increases in both PMM and total primary care doctors were lower in priority municipalities due to lower allocation of PMM doctors and greater substitution effects. The PMM led to amenable mortality reductions of − 1.06 per 100,000 (95%CI: − 1.78 to − 0.34) annually – with greater benefits in municipalities prioritised for doctor allocation and where doctor density was low before programme implementation.ConclusionsPMM potential health benefits were undermined due to widespread allocation of doctors to non-priority areas and local substitution effects. Policies seeking to strengthen HRH should develop and implement needs-based criteria for resource allocation.

Journal article

Jawad M, Hone T, Vamos E, Roderick P, Sullivan R, Millett Cet al., 2020, Estimating indirect mortality impacts of armed conflict in civilian populations: panel regression analyses of 193 countries, 1990-2017, BMC Medicine, Vol: 266, Pages: 1-11, ISSN: 1741-7015

BackgroundArmed conflict can indirectly affect population health through detrimental impacts on political and social institutions and destruction of infrastructure. This study aimed to quantify indirect mortality impacts of armed conflict in civilian populations globally, and explore differential effects by armed conflict characteristics and population groups.Methods We included 193 countries between 1990 and 2017 and constructed fixed effects panel regression models using data from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program and Global Burden of Disease study. Mortality rates were corrected to exclude battle-related deaths. We assessed separately four different armed conflict variables (capturing binary, continuous, categorical and quintile exposures) and ran models by cause-specific mortality stratified by age groups and sex. Post-estimation analyses calculated the number of civilian deaths. ResultsWe identified 1,118 unique armed conflicts. Armed conflict was associated with increases in civilian mortality - driven by conflicts categorised as wars. Wars were associated with an increase in age-standardised all-cause mortality of 81.5 per 100.000 population (β 81.5, 95% CI 14.3-148.8) in adjusted models contributing 29.4 million civilian deaths (95% CI 22.1-36.6) globally over the study period. Mortality rates from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (β 51.3, 95% CI 2.6-99.9), non-communicable diseases (β 22.7, 95% CI 0.2-45.2) and injuries (β 7.6, 95% CI 3.4-11.7) associated with war increased, contributing 21.0 million (95% CI 16.3-25.6), 6.0 million (95% CI 4.1-8.0), and 2.4 million deaths (95% CI 1.7-3.1) respectively. War-associated increases in all-cause and cause-specific mortality were found across all age groups and both genders, but children aged 0-5 years had the largest relative increases in mortality. Conclusions Armed conflict, particularly war, is associated with a substantial indirect mortality impact among civilians

Journal article

Laverty A, Hone T, Vamos EP, Anyanwu PE, Taylor Robinson D, de Vocht F, Millett C, Hopkinson NSet al., 2020, Impact of banning smoking in cars with children on exposure to second-hand smoke: a natural experiment in England and Scotland, Thorax, Vol: 75, Pages: 345-347, ISSN: 0040-6376

England banned smoking in cars carrying children in 2015 and Scotland in 2016. With survey data from three years for both countries (NEngland=3,483-6,920,NScotland=232-319), we used this natural experiment to assess impacts of the English ban using logistic regression within a difference-in-differences framework. Among children aged 13-15 years, self-reported levels of regular exposure to smoke in cars were 3.4% in 2012, 2.2% in 2014 and 1.3% in 2016 for Scotland and 6.3%, 5.9% and 1.6% in England. The ban in England was associated with a -4.1% (95%CI -4.9%;-3.3%) absolute reduction (72% relative reduction) in exposure to tobacco smoke among children.

Journal article

Shimizu HE, Leonor Maria PS, Mauro Niskier S, Hone T, Millett C, Harris Met al., 2020, Perceptions about the “Mais Médicos” Program and the Academic Supervision Process, Revista Brasileira de Educação Médica, ISSN: 0100-5502

Journal article

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