Imperial College London

DrThibautJombart

Faculty of MedicineSchool of Public Health

Senior Lecturer
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 3658t.jombart Website

 
 
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Location

 

UG11Norfolk PlaceSt Mary's Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Publication Type
Year
to

157 results found

Moraga P, Dorigatti I, Kamvar ZN, Piatkowski P, Toikkanen SE, Nagraj VP, Donnelly CA, Jombart Tet al., 2018, epiflows: an R package for risk assessment of travel-related spread of disease., F1000Research, Vol: 7, ISSN: 2046-1402

As international travel increases worldwide, new surveillance tools are needed to help identify locations where diseases are most likely to be spread and prevention measures need to be implemented. In this paper we present <i>epiflows</i>, an R package for risk assessment of travel-related spread of disease.  <i>epiflows</i> produces estimates of the expected number of symptomatic and/or asymptomatic infections that could be introduced to other locations from the source of infection. Estimates (average and confidence intervals) of the number of infections introduced elsewhere are obtained by integrating data on the cumulative number of cases reported, population movement, length of stay and information on the distributions of the incubation and infectious periods of the disease. The package also provides tools for geocoding and visualization. We illustrate the use of <i>epiflows</i> by assessing the risk of travel-related spread of yellow fever cases in Southeast Brazil in December 2016 to May 2017.

Journal article

Nagraj VP, Randhawa N, Campbell F, Crellen T, Sudre B, Jombart Tet al., 2018, epicontacts: Handling, visualisation and analysis of epidemiological contacts., F1000Research, Vol: 7, ISSN: 2046-1402

Epidemiological outbreak data is often captured in line list and contact format to facilitate contact tracing for outbreak control. <i>epicontacts</i> is an R package that provides a unique data structure for combining these data into a single object in order to facilitate more efficient visualisation and analysis. The package incorporates interactive visualisation functionality as well as network analysis techniques. Originally developed as part of the Hackout3 event, it is now developed, maintained and featured as part of the R Epidemics Consortium (RECON). The package is available for download from the Comprehensive R Archive Network (CRAN) and GitHub.

Journal article

Paradis E, Gosselin T, Grunwald NJ, Jombart T, Manel S, Lapp Het al., 2017, Towards an integrated ecosystem of R packages for the analysis of population genetic data, MOLECULAR ECOLOGY RESOURCES, Vol: 17, Pages: 1-4, ISSN: 1755-098X

Journal article

Montano V, Jombart T, 2017, An Eigenvalue Test for spatial Principal Component Analysis, BMC Bioinformatics, Vol: 18, ISSN: 1471-2105

BackgroundThe spatial Principal Component Analysis (sPCA, Jombart (Heredity 101:92-103, 2008) is designed to investigate non-random spatial distributions of genetic variation. Unfortunately, the associated tests used for assessing the existence of spatial patterns (global and local test; (Heredity 101:92-103, 2008) lack statistical power and may fail to reveal existing spatial patterns. Here, we present a non-parametric test for the significance of specific patterns recovered by sPCA.ResultsWe compared the performance of this new test to the original global and local tests using datasets simulated under classical population genetic models. Results show that our test outperforms the original global and local tests, exhibiting improved statistical power while retaining similar, and reliable type I errors. Moreover, by allowing to test various sets of axes, it can be used to guide the selection of retained sPCA components.ConclusionsAs such, our test represents a valuable complement to the original analysis, and should prove useful for the investigation of spatial genetic patterns.

Journal article

Jombart T, Kendall M, Almagro-Garcia J, Colijn Cet al., 2017, Treespace: statistical exploration of landscapes of phylogenetic trees, Molecular Ecology Resources, Vol: 17, Pages: 1385-1392, ISSN: 1755-0998

The increasing availability of large genomic data sets as well as the advent of Bayesian phylogenetics facilitates the investigation of phylogenetic incongruence, which can result in the impossibility of representing phylogenetic relationships using a single tree. While sometimes considered as a nuisance, phylogenetic incongruence can also reflect meaningful biological processes as well as relevant statistical uncertainty, both of which can yield valuable insights in evolutionary studies. We introduce a new tool for investigating phylogenetic incongruence through the exploration of phylogenetic tree landscapes. Our approach, implemented in the R package treespace, combines tree metrics and multivariate analysis to provide low-dimensional representations of the topological variability in a set of trees, which can be used for identifying clusters of similar trees and group-specific consensus phylogenies. treespace also provides a user-friendly web interface for interactive data analysis and is integrated alongside existing standards for phylogenetics. It fills a gap in the current phylogenetics toolbox in R and will facilitate the investigation of phylogenetic results.

Journal article

Garske T, Cori A, Ariyarajah A, Blake I, Dorigatti I, Eckmanns T, Fraser C, Hinsley W, Jombart T, Mills H, Nedjati-Gilani G, Newton E, Nouvellet P, Perkins D, Riley S, Schumacher D, Shah A, Van Kerkhove M, Dye C, Ferguson N, Donnelly Cet al., 2017, Heterogeneities in the case fatality ratio in the West African Ebola outbreak 2013 – 2016, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, Vol: 372, ISSN: 1471-2970

The 2013–2016 Ebola outbreak in West Africa is the largest on record with 28 616 confirmed, probable and suspected cases and 11 310 deaths officially recorded by 10 June 2016, the true burden probably considerably higher. The case fatality ratio (CFR: proportion of cases that are fatal) is a key indicator of disease severity useful for gauging the appropriate public health response and for evaluating treatment benefits, if estimated accurately. We analysed individual-level clinical outcome data from Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone officially reported to the World Health Organization. The overall mean CFR was 62.9% (95% CI: 61.9% to 64.0%) among confirmed cases with recorded clinical outcomes. Age was the most important modifier of survival probabilities, but country, stage of the epidemic and whether patients were hospitalized also played roles. We developed a statistical analysis to detect outliers in CFR between districts of residence and treatment centres (TCs), adjusting for known factors influencing survival and identified eight districts and three TCs with a CFR significantly different from the average. From the current dataset, we cannot determine whether the observed variation in CFR seen by district or treatment centre reflects real differences in survival, related to the quality of care or other factors or was caused by differences in reporting practices or case ascertainment.

Journal article

Cori A, Donnelly CA, dorigatti, ferguson NM, fraser, garske, jombart, Nedjati-Gilani G, Nouvellet, Riley, Van Kerkhove, Mills, Blake IMet al., 2017, Key data for outbreak evaluation: building on the Ebola experience, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, Vol: 372, ISSN: 1471-2970

Following the detection of an infectious disease outbreak, rapid epidemiological assessmentis critical to guidean effectivepublic health response. To understand the transmission dynamics and potential impact of an outbreak, several types of data are necessary. Here we build on experience gained inthe West AfricanEbolaepidemic and prior emerging infectious disease outbreaksto set out a checklist of data needed to: 1) quantify severity and transmissibility;2) characterise heterogeneities in transmission and their determinants;and 3) assess the effectiveness of different interventions.We differentiate data needs into individual-leveldata (e.g. a detailed list of reported cases), exposure data(e.g.identifying where / howcases may have been infected) and populationlevel data (e.g.size/demographicsof the population(s)affected andwhen/where interventions were implemented). A remarkable amount of individual-level and exposuredata was collected during the West African Ebola epidemic, which allowed the assessment of (1) and (2). However,gaps in population-level data (particularly around which interventions were applied whenand where)posed challenges to the assessment of (3).Herewehighlight recurrent data issues, give practical suggestions for addressingthese issues and discuss priorities for improvements in data collection in future outbreaks.

Journal article

Nouvellet P, Cori A, Garske T, Blake IM, Dorigatti I, Hinsley W, Jombart T, Mills HL, Nedjati-Gilani G, Van Kerkhove MD, Fraser C, Donnelly CA, Ferguson NM, Riley Set al., 2017, A simple approach to measure transmissibility and forecast incidence, Epidemics, Vol: 22, Pages: 29-35, ISSN: 1755-4365

Outbreaks of novel pathogens such as SARS, pandemic influenza and Ebola require substantial investments in reactive interventions, with consequent implementation plans sometimes revised on a weekly basis. Therefore, short-term forecasts of incidence are often of high priority. In light of the recent Ebola epidemic in West Africa, a forecasting exercise was convened by a network of infectious disease modellers. The challenge was to forecast unseen “future” simulated data for four different scenarios at five different time points. In a similar method to that used during the recent Ebola epidemic, we estimated current levels of transmissibility, over variable time-windows chosen in an ad hoc way. Current estimated transmissibility was then used to forecast near-future incidence. We performed well within the challenge and often produced accurate forecasts. A retrospective analysis showed that our subjective method for deciding on the window of time with which to estimate transmissibility often resulted in the optimal choice. However, when near-future trends deviated substantially from exponential patterns, the accuracy of our forecasts was reduced. This exercise highlights the urgent need for infectious disease modellers to develop more robust descriptions of processes – other than the widespread depletion of susceptible individuals – that produce non-exponential patterns of incidence.

Journal article

Bertranpetit E, Jombart T, Paradis E, Pena H, Dubey J, Su C, Mercier A, Devillard S, Ajzenberg Det al., 2016, Phylogeography of Toxoplasma gondii points to a South American origin, Infection, Genetics and Evolution, Vol: 48, Pages: 150-155, ISSN: 1567-1348

Toxoplasma gondii, a protozoan found ubiquitously in mammals and birds, is the etiologic agent of toxoplasmosis, a disease causing substantial public health burden worldwide, including about 200,000 new cases of congenital toxoplasmosis each year. Clinical severity has been shown to vary across geographical regions, with South America exhibiting the highest burden. Unfortunately, the drivers of these heterogeneities are still poorly understood, and the geographical origin and historical spread of the pathogen worldwide are currently uncertain. A worldwide sample of 168 T. gondii isolates gathered in 13 populations was sequenced for five fragments of genes (140 single nucleotide polymorphisms from 3153 bp per isolate). Phylogeny based on Maximum likelihood methods with estimation of the time to the most recent common ancestor (TMRCA) and geostatistical analyses were performed for inferring the putative origin of T. gondii. We show that extant strains of the pathogen likely evolved from a South American ancestor, around 1.5 million years ago, and reconstruct the subsequent spread of the pathogen worldwide. This emergence is much more recent than the appearance of ancestral T. gondii, believed to have taken place about 11 My ago, and follows the arrival of felids in this part of the world. We posit that an ancestral lineage of T. gondii likely arrived in South America with felids and that the evolution of oral infectivity through carnivorism and the radiation of felids in this region enabled a new strain to outcompete the ancestral lineage and undergo a pandemic radiation.

Journal article

International Ebola Response Team, Agua-Agum J, Ariyarajah A, Aylward B, Bawo L, Bilivogui P, Blake IM, Brennan RJ, Cawthorne A, Cleary E, Clement P, Conteh R, Cori A, Dafae F, Dahl B, Dangou JM, Diallo B, Donnelly CA, Dorigatti I, Dye C, Eckmanns T, Fallah M, Ferguson NM, Fiebig L, Fraser C, Garske T, Gonzalez L, Hamblion E, Hamid N, Hersey S, Hinsley W, Jambei A, Jombart T, Kargbo D, Keita S, Kinzer M, George FK, Godefroy B, Gutierrez G, Kannangarage N, Mills HL, Moller T, Meijers S, Mohamed Y, Morgan O, Nedjati-Gilani G, Newton E, Nouvellet P, Nyenswah T, Perea W, Perkins D, Riley S, Rodier G, Rondy M, Sagrado M, Savulescu C, Schafer IJ, Schumacher D, Seyler T, Shah A, Van Kerkhove MD, Wesseh CS, Yoti Zet al., 2016, Exposure patterns driving Ebola transmissions in West Africa: a retrospective observational study, PLOS Medicine, Vol: 13, ISSN: 1549-1277

BACKGROUND: The ongoing West African Ebola epidemic began in December 2013 in Guinea, probably from a single zoonotic introduction. As a result of ineffective initial control efforts, an Ebola outbreak of unprecedented scale emerged. As of 4 May 2015, it had resulted in more than 19,000 probable and confirmed Ebola cases, mainly in Guinea (3,529), Liberia (5,343), and Sierra Leone (10,746). Here, we present analyses of data collected during the outbreak identifying drivers of transmission and highlighting areas where control could be improved.METHODS AND FINDINGS: Over 19,000 confirmed and probable Ebola cases were reported in West Africa by 4 May 2015. Individuals with confirmed or probable Ebola ("cases") were asked if they had exposure to other potential Ebola cases ("potential source contacts") in a funeral or non-funeral context prior to becoming ill. We performed retrospective analyses of a case line-list, collated from national databases of case investigation forms that have been reported to WHO. These analyses were initially performed to assist WHO's response during the epidemic, and have been updated for publication. We analysed data from 3,529 cases in Guinea, 5,343 in Liberia, and 10,746 in Sierra Leone; exposures were reported by 33% of cases. The proportion of cases reporting a funeral exposure decreased over time. We found a positive correlation (r = 0.35, p < 0.001) between this proportion in a given district for a given month and the within-district transmission intensity, quantified by the estimated reproduction number (R). We also found a negative correlation (r = -0.37, p < 0.001) between R and the district proportion of hospitalised cases admitted within ≤4 days of symptom onset. These two proportions were not correlated, suggesting that reduced funeral attendance and faster hospitalisation independently influenced local transmission intensity. We were able to identify 14% of potential source contacts as cases in the

Journal article

Inns T, Ashton PM, Herrera-Leon S, Lighthill J, Foulkes S, Jombart T, Rehman Y, Fox A, Dallman T, De Pinna E, Browning L, Coia JE, Edeghere O, Vivancos Ret al., 2016, Prospective use of whole genome sequencing (WGS) detected a multi-country outbreak of Salmonella Enteritidis, EPIDEMIOLOGY AND INFECTION, Vol: 145, Pages: 289-298, ISSN: 0950-2688

Journal article

Clare FC, Halder JB, Daniel O, Bielby J, Semenov MA, Jombart T, Loyau A, Schmeller DS, Cunningham AA, Rowcliffe M, Garner TWJ, Bosch J, Fisher Met al., 2016, Climate forcing of an emerging pathogenic fungus across a montane multi-host community, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, Vol: 371, ISSN: 1471-2970

Changes in the timings of seasonality as a result of anthropogenic climate change are predicted to occur over the coming decades. While this is expected to have widespread impacts on the dynamics of infectious disease through environmental forcing, empirical data are lacking. Here, we investigated whether seasonality, specifically the timing of spring ice-thaw, affected susceptibility to infection by the emerging pathogenic fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) across a montane community of amphibians that are suffering declines and extirpations as a consequence of this infection. We found a robust temporal association between the timing of the spring thaw and Bd infection in two host species, where we show that an early onset of spring forced high prevalences of infection. A third highly susceptible species (the midwife toad, Alytes obstetricans) maintained a high prevalence of infection independent of time of spring thaw. Our data show that perennially overwintering midwife toad larvae may act as a year-round reservoir of infection with variation in time of spring thaw determining the extent to which infection spills over into sympatric species. We used future temperature projections based on global climate models to demonstrate that the timing of spring thaw in this region will advance markedly by the 2050s, indicating that climate change will further force the severity of infection. Our findings on the effect of annual variability on multi-host infection dynamics show that the community-level impact of fungal infectious disease on biodiversity will need to be re-evaluated in the face of climate change.

Journal article

Paradis E, Gosselin T, Goudet J, Jombart T, Schliep Ket al., 2016, Linking genomics and population genetics with R, Molecular Ecology Resources, Vol: 17, Pages: 54-66, ISSN: 1755-0998

Population genetics and genomics have developed and been treated as independent fields of study despite having common roots. The continuous progress of sequencing technologies is contributing to (re-)connect these two disciplines. We review the challenges faced by data analysts and software developers when handling very big genetic data sets collected on many individuals. We then expose how R, as a computing language and development environment, proposes some solutions to meet these challenges. We focus on some specific issues that are often encountered in practice: handling and analysing SNP data, handling and reading VCF files, analysing haplotypes and linkage disequilibrium, and performing multivariate analyses. We illustrate these implementations with some analyses of three recently published data sets that contain between 60,000 and 1,000,000 loci. We conclude with some perspectives on future developments of R software for population genomics. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Journal article

Dallman T, Inns T, Jombart T, Ashton P, Loman N, Chatt C, Messelhaeusser U, Rabsch W, Simon S, Nikisins S, Bernard H, le Hello S, Jourdan da-Silva N, Kornschober C, Mossong J, Hawkey P, de Pinna E, Grant K, Cleary Pet al., 2016, Phylogenetic structure of European Salmonella Enteritidis outbreak correlates with national and international egg distribution network, Microbial Genomics, Vol: 2, Pages: e000070-e000070, ISSN: 2057-5858

Outbreaks of Salmonella Enteritidis have long been associated with contaminated poultry and eggs. In the summer of 2014 a large multi-national outbreak of Salmonella Enteritidis phage type 14b occurred with over 350 cases reported in the United Kingdom, Germany, Austria, France and Luxembourg. Egg supply network investigation and microbiological sampling identified the source to be a Bavarian egg producer. As part of the international investigation into the outbreak, over 400 isolates were sequenced including isolates from cases, implicated UK premises and eggs from the suspected source producer. We were able to show a clear statistical correlation between the topology of the UK egg distribution network and the phylogenetic network of outbreak isolates. This correlation can most plausibly be explained by different parts of the egg distribution network being supplied by eggs solely from independent premises of the Bavarian egg producer (Company X). Microbiological sampling from the source premises, traceback information and information on the interventions carried out at the egg production premises all supported this conclusion. The level of insight into the outbreak epidemiology provided by whole-genome sequencing (WGS) would not have been possible using traditional microbial typing methods.

Journal article

Jombart T, Archer F, Schliep K, Kamvar Z, Harris R, Paradis E, Goudet J, Lapp Het al., 2016, apex: phylogenetics with multiple genes, Molecular Ecology Resources, Vol: 17, Pages: 19-26, ISSN: 1755-0998

Genetic sequences of multiple genes are becoming increasingly common for a wide range of organisms including viruses, bacteria, and Eucaryotes. While such data may sometimes be treated as a single locus, in practice a number of biological and statistical phenomena can lead to phylogenetic incongruence. In such cases different loci should, at least as a preliminary step, be examined and analysed separately. The R software has become a popular platform for phylogenetics, with several packages implementing distance-based, parsimony, and likelihood-based phylogenetic reconstruction, and an even greater number of packages implementing phylogenetic comparative methods. Unfortunately, basic data structures and tools for analysing multiple genes have so far been lacking, thereby limiting potential for investigating phylogenetic incongruence. In this paper, we introduce the new R package apex to fill this gap. apex implements new object classes which extend existing standards for storing DNA and amino-acid sequences, and provides a number of convenient tools for handling, visualizing, and analyzing these data. In this paper, we introduce the main features of the package and illustrate its functionalities through the analysis of a simple dataset. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Journal article

Agua-Agum J, Allegranzi B, Ariyarajah A, Aylward RB, Blake IM, Barboza P, Bausch D, Brennan RJ, Clement P, Coffey P, Cori A, Donnelly CA, Dorigatti I, Drury P, Durski K, Dye C, Eckmanns T, Ferguson NM, Fraser C, Garcia E, Garske T, Gasasira A, Gurry C, Gutierrez GJ, Hamblion E, Hinsley W, Holden R, Holmes D, Hugonnet S, Jombart T, Kelley E, Santhana R, Mahmoud N, Mills HL, Mohamed Y, Musa E, Naidoo D, Nedjati-Gilani G, Newton E, Norton I, Nouvellet P, Perkins D, Perkins M, Riley S, Schumacher D, Shah A, Minh T, Varsaneux O, Van Kerkhove MDet al., 2016, After Ebola in West Africa - Unpredictable Risks, Preventable Epidemics, New England Journal of Medicine, Vol: 375, Pages: 587-596, ISSN: 1533-4406

Between December 2013 and April 2016, the largest epidemic of Ebola virus disease (EVD) to date generated more than 28,000 cases and more than 11,000 deaths in the large, mobile populations of Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. Tracking the rapid rise and slower decline of the West African epidemic has reinforced some common understandings about the epidemiology and control of EVD but has also generated new insights. Despite having more information about the geographic distribution of the disease, the risk of human infection from animals and from survivors of EVD remains unpredictable over a wide area of equatorial Africa. Until human exposure to infection can be anticipated or avoided, future outbreaks will have to be managed with the classic approach to EVD control — extensive surveillance, rapid detection and diagnosis, comprehensive tracing of contacts, prompt patient isolation, supportive clinical care, rigorous efforts to prevent and control infection, safe and dignified burial, and engagement of the community. Empirical and modeling studies conducted during the West African epidemic have shown that large epidemics of EVD are preventable — a rapid response can interrupt transmission and restrict the size of outbreaks, even in densely populated cities. The critical question now is how to ensure that populations and their health services are ready for the next outbreak, wherever it may occur. Health security across Africa and beyond depends on committing resources to both strengthen national health systems and sustain investment in the next generation of vaccines, drugs, and diagnostics.

Journal article

Cauchemez S, Nouvellet P, Cori A, Jombart T, Garske T, Clapham H, Moore S, Mills HL, Salje H, Collins C, Rodriquez-Barraquer I, Riley S, Truelove S, Algarni H, Alhakeem R, AlHarbi K, Turkistani A, Aguas RJ, Cummings DA, Van Kerkhove MD, Donnelly CA, Lessler J, Fraser C, Al-Barrak A, Ferguson NMet al., 2016, Unraveling the drivers of MERS-CoV transmission., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Vol: 113, Pages: 9081-9086, ISSN: 1091-6490

With more than 1,700 laboratory-confirmed infections, Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) remains a significant threat for public health. However, the lack of detailed data on modes of transmission from the animal reservoir and between humans means that the drivers of MERS-CoV epidemics remain poorly characterized. Here, we develop a statistical framework to provide a comprehensive analysis of the transmission patterns underlying the 681 MERS-CoV cases detected in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) between January 2013 and July 2014. We assess how infections from the animal reservoir, the different levels of mixing, and heterogeneities in transmission have contributed to the buildup of MERS-CoV epidemics in KSA. We estimate that 12% [95% credible interval (CI): 9%, 15%] of cases were infected from the reservoir, the rest via human-to-human transmission in clusters (60%; CI: 57%, 63%), within (23%; CI: 20%, 27%), or between (5%; CI: 2%, 8%) regions. The reproduction number at the start of a cluster was 0.45 (CI: 0.33, 0.58) on average, but with large SD (0.53; CI: 0.35, 0.78). It was >1 in 12% (CI: 6%, 18%) of clusters but fell by approximately one-half (47% CI: 34%, 63%) its original value after 10 cases on average. The ongoing exposure of humans to MERS-CoV from the reservoir is of major concern, given the continued risk of substantial outbreaks in health care systems. The approach we present allows the study of infectious disease transmission when data linking cases to each other remain limited and uncertain.

Journal article

Jombart T, Kamvar ZN, Luštrik R, Schliep K, Mikryukov V, Knaus Bet al., 2016, adegenet: adegenet version 2.0.1

This version contains a few new features, speedups, and bug fixes

Software

Lessler J, Salje H, van Kerkhove M, Collins Cet al., 2016, Estimating the Severity and Subclinical Burden of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Infection in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, American Journal of Epidemiology, Vol: 183, Pages: 657-663, ISSN: 1476-6256

Not all persons infected with Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) develop severe symptoms, which likely leads to an underestimation of the number of people infected and an overestimation of the severity. To estimate the number of MERS-CoV infections that have occurred in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, we applied a statistical model to a line list describing 721 MERS-CoV infections detected between June 7, 2012, and July 25, 2014. We estimated that 1,528 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1,327, 1,883) MERS-CoV infections occurred in this interval, which is 2.1 (95% CI: 1.8, 2.6) times the number reported. The probability of developing symptoms ranged from 11% (95% CI: 4, 25) in persons under 10 years of age to 88% (95% CI: 72, 97) in those 70 years of age or older. An estimated 22% (95% CI: 18, 25) of those infected with MERS-CoV died. MERS-CoV is deadly, but this work shows that its clinical severity differs markedly between groups and that many cases likely go undiagnosed.

Journal article

Agua-Agum J, Ariyarajah A, Blake IM, Cori A, Donnelly CA, Dorigatti I, Dye C, Eck-Manns T, Ferguson NM, Fraser C, Garske T, Hinsley W, Jombart T, Mills HL, Nedjati-Gilani G, Newton E, Nouvellet P, Perkins D, Riley S, Schumacher D, Shah A, Thomas LJ, Van Kerkhove MDet al., 2016, Ebola virus disease among male and female persons in West Africa, New England Journal of Medicine, Vol: 374, Pages: 96-98, ISSN: 1533-4406

Journal article

Karkey A, Jombart T, Walker AW, Thompson CN, Torres A, Dongol S, Tran Vu Thieu N, Pham Thanh D, Tran Thi Ngoc D, Voong Vinh P, Singer AC, Parkhill J, Thwaites G, Basnyat B, Ferguson N, Baker Set al., 2016, The Ecological Dynamics of Fecal Contamination and Salmonella Typhi and Salmonella Paratyphi A in Municipal Kathmandu Drinking Water., PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol: 10, ISSN: 1935-2735

One of the UN sustainable development goals is to achieve universal access to safe and affordable drinking water by 2030. It is locations like Kathmandu, Nepal, a densely populated city in South Asia with endemic typhoid fever, where this goal is most pertinent. Aiming to understand the public health implications of water quality in Kathmandu we subjected weekly water samples from 10 sources for one year to a range of chemical and bacteriological analyses. We additionally aimed to detect the etiological agents of typhoid fever and longitudinally assess microbial diversity by 16S rRNA gene surveying. We found that the majority of water sources exhibited chemical and bacterial contamination exceeding WHO guidelines. Further analysis of the chemical and bacterial data indicated site-specific pollution, symptomatic of highly localized fecal contamination. Rainfall was found to be a key driver of this fecal contamination, correlating with nitrates and evidence of S. Typhi and S. Paratyphi A, for which DNA was detectable in 333 (77%) and 303 (70%) of 432 water samples, respectively. 16S rRNA gene surveying outlined a spectrum of fecal bacteria in the contaminated water, forming complex communities again displaying location-specific temporal signatures. Our data signify that the municipal water in Kathmandu is a predominant vehicle for the transmission of S. Typhi and S. Paratyphi A. This study represents the first extensive spatiotemporal investigation of water pollution in an endemic typhoid fever setting and implicates highly localized human waste as the major contributor to poor water quality in the Kathmandu Valley.

Journal article

Finnie TJR, South A, Bento A, Sherrard-Smith E, Jombart Tet al., 2015, EpiJSON: A unified data-format for epidemiology, Epidemics, Vol: 15, Pages: 20-26, ISSN: 1878-0067

Journal article

Nouvellet P, Garske T, Mills HL, Nedjati-Gilani G, Hinsley W, Blake IM, Van Kerkhove MD, Cori A, Dorigatti I, Jombart T, Riley S, Fraser C, Donnelly CA, Ferguson NMet al., 2015, The role of rapid diagnostics in managing Ebola epidemics, Nature, Vol: 528, Pages: S109-S116, ISSN: 0028-0836

Ebola emerged in West Africa around December 2013 and swept through Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia, giving rise to 27,748 confirmed, probable and suspected cases reported by 29 July 2015. Case diagnoses during the epidemic have relied on polymerase chain reaction-based tests. Owing to limited laboratory capacity and local transport infrastructure, the delays from sample collection to test results being available have often been 2 days or more. Point-of-care rapid diagnostic tests offer the potential to substantially reduce these delays. We review Ebola rapid diagnostic tests approved by the World Health Organization and those currently in development. Such rapid diagnostic tests could allow early triaging of patients, thereby reducing the potential for nosocomial transmission. In addition, despite the lower test accuracy, rapid diagnostic test-based diagnosis may be beneficial in some contexts because of the reduced time spent by uninfected individuals in health-care settings where they may be at increased risk of infection; this also frees up hospital beds. We use mathematical modelling to explore the potential benefits of diagnostic testing strategies involving rapid diagnostic tests alone and in combination with polymerase chain reaction testing. Our analysis indicates that the use of rapid diagnostic tests with sensitivity and specificity comparable with those currently under development always enhances control, whether evaluated at a health-care-unit or population level. If such tests had been available throughout the recent epidemic, we estimate, for Sierra Leone, that their use in combination with confirmatory polymerase chain-reaction testing might have reduced the scale of the epidemic by over a third.

Journal article

Jombart T, Kendall ML, Almagro-Garcia J, Colijn Cet al., 2015, treespace

Statistical Exploration of Landscapes of Phylogenetic Trees

Software

Jombart T, Kamvar ZN, Archer E, Harris R, Xie Yet al., 2015, apex: Version 1.0.1 submitted to CRAN

Phylogenetic Methods for Multiple Gene Data

Software

Mita T, Jombart T, 2015, Patterns and dynamics of genetic diversity in <i>Plasmodium falciparum</i>: What past human migrations tell us about malaria, PARASITOLOGY INTERNATIONAL, Vol: 64, Pages: 238-243, ISSN: 1383-5769

Journal article

Weinert LA, Chaudhuri RR, Wang J, Peters SE, Corander J, Jombart T, Baig A, Howell KJ, Vehkala M, Vaelimaeki N, Harris D, Tran TBC, Nguyen VVC, Campbell J, Schultsz C, Parkhill J, Bentley SD, Langford PR, Rycroft AN, Wren BW, Farrar J, Baker S, Ngo TH, Holden MTG, Tucker AW, Maskell DJet al., 2015, Erratum: Genomic signatures of human and animal disease in the zoonotic pathogen Streptococcus suis, Nature Communications, Vol: 6, ISSN: 2041-1723

Journal article

Weinert LA, Chaudhuri RR, Wang J, Peters SE, Corander J, Jombart T, Baig A, Howell KJ, Vehkala M, Valimaki N, Harris D, Tran TBC, Nguyen VVC, Campbell J, Schultsz C, Parkhill J, Bentley SD, Langford PR, Rycroft AN, Wren BW, Farrar J, Baker S, Ngo TH, Holden MTG, Tucker AW, Maskell DJet al., 2015, Genomic signatures of human and animal disease in the zoonotic pathogen Streptococcus suis, Nature Communications, Vol: 6, ISSN: 2041-1723

Journal article

Agua-Agum J, Ariyarajah A, Blake IM, Cori A, Donnelly CA, Dorigatti I, Dye C, Eckmanns T, Ferguson NM, Fowler RA, Fraser C, Garske T, Hinsley W, Jombart T, Mills HL, Murthy S, Nedjati-Gilani G, Nouvellet P, Pelletier L, Riley S, Schumacher D, Shah A, Van Kerkhove MDet al., 2015, Ebola virus disease among children in West Africa, New England Journal of Medicine, Vol: 372, Pages: 1274-1277, ISSN: 1533-4406

Journal article

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