Imperial College London


Faculty of MedicineSchool of Public Health

Research Associate







St Mary's Research BuildingSt Mary's Campus





Currently modelling SARS-CoV-2 transmission and applying machine learning to satellite imagery for geospatial mapping of infectious diseases. Previously worked on atomistic simulation of materials at ultra-high temperatures.

Selected Publications

Journal Articles

Faria NR, Mellan TA, Whittaker C, et al., 2021, Genomics and epidemiology of the P.1 SARS-CoV-2 lineage in Manaus, Brazil, Science, Vol:372, ISSN:0036-8075, Pages:815-821

Vollmer MAC, Glampson B, Mellan TA, et al., 2021, A unified machine learning approach to time series forecasting applied to demand at emergency departments, Bmc Emergency Medicine, Vol:21, ISSN:1471-227X, Pages:1-14

Flaxman S, Mishra S, Gandy A, et al., 2020, Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe, Nature, Vol:584, ISSN:0028-0836, Pages:257-261

Hawryluk I, Mellan TA, Hoeltgebaum H, et al., 2020, Inference of COVID-19 epidemiological distributions from Brazilian hospital data, Journal of the Royal Society Interface, Vol:17, ISSN:1742-5662, Pages:20200596-20200596

Mellan TA, Duff A, Grabowski B, et al., 2019, Fast anharmonic free energy method with an application to vacancies in ZrC, Physical Review B, Vol:100, ISSN:1098-0121, Pages:024303-1-024303-11

Mellan TA, Aziz A, Xia Y, et al., 2019, Electron and phonon interactions and transport in the ultrahigh-temperature ceramic ZrC, Physical Review B, Vol:99, ISSN:2469-9950

Mellan TA, Wang H, Schwingenschloegl U, et al., 2019, Origin of the transition entropy in vanadium dioxide, Physical Review B, Vol:99, ISSN:2469-9950

Mellan TA, Duff AI, Finnis MW, 2018, Spontaneous Frenkel pair formation in zirconium carbide, Physical Review B, Vol:98, ISSN:2469-9950

Hawryluk I, Mishra S, Flaxman S, et al., Referenced Thermodynamic Integration for Bayesian Model Selection: Application to COVID-19 Model Selection

Hawryluk I, Hoeltgebaum H, Mishra S, et al., Gaussian Process Nowcasting: Application to COVID-19 Mortality Reporting


Mellan T, Hoeltgebaum H, Mishra S, et al., 2020, Report 21: Estimating COVID-19 cases and reproduction number in Brazil

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