18 results found
Gambhir A, Napp T, Hawkes A, et al., 2017, The contribution of non-CO2 greenhouse gas mitigation to achieving long-term temperature goals, Energies, Vol: 10, ISSN: 1996-1073
This paper analyses the emissions and cost impacts of mitigation of non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs) at a global level, in scenarios aimed at meeting a range of long-term temperature goals (LTTGs). The study combines an integrated assessment model (TIAM-Grantham) representing CO2 emissions (and their mitigation) from the fossil fuel combustion and industrial sectors, coupled with a model covering non-CO2 emissions (GAINS), using the latest global warming potentials from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report. We illustrate that in general non-CO2 mitigation measures are less costly than CO2 mitigation measures, with the majority of their abatement potential achievable at US2005$100/tCO2e or less throughout the 21st century (compared to a marginal CO2 mitigation cost which is already greater than this by 2030 in the most stringent mitigation scenario). As a result, the total cumulative discounted cost over the period 2010–2100 (at a 5% discount rate) of limiting global average temperature change to 2.5 °C by 2100 is $48 trillion (about 1.6% of cumulative discounted GDP over the period 2010–2100) if only CO2 from the fossil fuel and industrial sectors is targeted, whereas the cost falls to $17 trillion (0.6% of GDP) by including non-CO2 GHG mitigation in the portfolio of options—a cost reduction of about 65%. The criticality of non-CO2 mitigation recommends further research, given its relatively less well-explored nature when compared to CO2 mitigation.
Few SPM, Gambhir A, Napp T, et al., 2017, The impact of shale gas on the cost and feasibility of meeting climate targets - a global energy system model analysis and an exploration of uncertainties, Energies, Vol: 10, ISSN: 1996-1073
There exists considerable uncertainty over both shaleand conventional gas resource availability and extraction costs, as well as the fugitive methane emissions associated with shale gas extractionand its possible role in mitigating climate change. This study uses a multi-region energy system model, TIAM (TIMES Integrated Assessment Model),to consider the impact of a range of conventional and shale gas cost and availability assessments on mitigation scenariosaimed at achieving a limit to global warming of below 2°C in 2100, with a 50% likelihood. When adding shale gas to the global energy mix, the reduction to the global energy system cost is relatively small (up to0.4%), and the mitigation cost increases by 1-3% under all cost assumptions. The impact of a “dash for shale gas”, of unavailability of carbon capture and storage, of increased barriers to investment in low carbon technologies, and of higher than expectedleakage rates, are also considered;andare each found to have the potential to increase the cost and reduce feasibility of meeting globaltemperature goals. We concludethat the extraction of shale gas is not likely to significantly reduce the effort required to mitigate climate change under globallycoordinatedaction, but could increase required mitigation effort if not handled sufficiently carefully.
Napp T, Bernie D, Thomas R, et al., 2017, Exploring the feasibility of low-carbon scenarios using historical energy transitions analysis, Energies, Vol: 10, ISSN: 1996-1073
The scenarios generated by energy systems models provide a picture of the range of possible pathways to a low-carbon future. However, in order to be truly useful, these scenarios should not only be possible but also plausible. In this paper, we have used lessons from historical energy transitions to create a set of diagnostic tests to assess the feasibility of an example 2 °C scenario (generated using the least cost optimization model, TIAM-Grantham). The key assessment criteria included the rate of deployment of low carbon technologies and the rate of transition between primary energy resources. The rates of deployment of key low-carbon technologies were found to exceed the maximum historically observed rate of deployment of 20% per annum. When constraints were added to limit the scenario to within historically observed rates of change, the model no longer solved for 2 °C. Under these constraints, the lowest median 2100 temperature change for which a solution was found was about 2.1 °C and at more than double the cumulative cost of the unconstrained scenario. The analysis in this paper highlights the considerable challenge of meeting 2 °C, requiring rates of energy supply technology deployment and rates of declines in fossil fuels which are unprecedented.
Gambhir A, Drouet L, McCollum D, et al., 2017, Assessing the feasibility of global long-term mitigation scenarios, Energies, Vol: 10, ISSN: 1996-1073
This study explores the critical notion of how feasible it is to achieve long-term mitigation goals to limit global temperature change. It uses a model inter-comparison of three integrated assessment models (TIAM-Grantham, MESSAGE-GLOBIOM and WITCH) harmonized for socio-economic growth drivers using one of the new shared socio-economic pathways (SSP2), to analyse multiple mitigation scenarios aimed at different temperature changes in 2100, in order to assess the model outputs against a range of indicators developed so as to systematically compare the feasibility across scenarios. These indicators include mitigation costs and carbon prices, rates of emissions reductions and energy efficiency improvements, rates of deployment of key low-carbon technologies, reliance on negative emissions, and stranding of power generation assets. The results highlight how much more challenging the 2OC goal is, when compared to the 2.5-4OC goals, across virtually all measures of feasibility. Any delay in mitigation or limitation in technology options also renders the 2OC goal much less feasible across the economic and technical dimensions explored. Finally, a sensitivity analysis indicates that aiming for less than 2OC is even less plausible, with significantly higher mitigation costs and faster carbon price increases, significantly faster decarbonization and zero-carbon technology deployment rates, earlier occurrence of very significant carbon capture and earlier onset of global net negative emissions. Such a systematic analysis allows a more in-depth consideration of what realistic level of long-term temperature changes can be achieved and what adaptation strategies are therefore required.
Alberts G, Gurguc Z, Koutroumpis P, et al., 2016, Competition and norms: a self-defeating combination?, Energy Policy, Vol: 96, Pages: 504-523, ISSN: 1873-6777
This paper investigates the effects of information feedback mechanisms on electricity and heating usage at a student hall of residence in London. In a randomised control trial, we formulate different treatments such as feedback information and norms, as well as prize competition among subjects. We show that information and norms lead to a sharp – more than 20% - reduction in overall energy consumption. Because participants do not pay for their energy consumption this response cannot be driven by cost saving incentives. Interestingly, when combining feedback and norms with a prize competition for achieving low energy consumption, the reduction effect – while present initially – disappears in the long run. This could suggest that external rewards reduce and even destroy intrinsic motivation to change behaviour.
Napp TA, Gambhir A, Hills TP, et al., 2013, A review of the technologies, economics and policy instruments for decarbonising energy-intensive manufacturing industries, Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews
Industrial processes account for one-third of global energy demand. The iron and steel, cement and refining sectors are particularly energy-intensive, together making up over 30% of total industrial energy consumption and producing millions of tonnes of CO2 per year. The aim of this paper is to provide a comprehensive overview of the technologies for reducing emissions from industrial processes by collating information from a wide range of sources. The paper begins with a summary of energy consumption and emissions in the industrial sector. This is followed by a detailed description of process improvements in the three sectors mentioned above, as well as cross-cutting technologies that are relevant to many industries. Lastly, a discussion of the effectiveness of government policies to facilitate the adoption of those technologies is presented. Whilst there has been significant improvement in energy efficiency in recent years, cost-effective energy efficient options still remain. Key energy efficiency measures include upgrading process units to Best Practice, installing new electrical equipment such as pumps and even replacing the process completely. However, these are insufficient to achieve the deep carbon reductions required if we are to avoid dangerous climate change. The paper concludes with recommendations for action to achieve further decarbonisation.
Gambhir A, Schulz N, Napp T, et al., 2013, A hybrid modelling approach to develop scenarios for China's carbon dioxide emissions to 2050, Energy Policy, Vol: 59, Pages: 614-632, ISSN: 0301-4215
Haydock H, Napp TA, 2013, Decarbonisation of heat in industry - A review of the research evidence, Ricardo-AEA/R/ED58571
Shah N, Vallejo L, Cockerill T, et al., 2013, Halving Global CO2 Emissions: Technologies and Costs, Publisher: Imperial College London
Brown TA, Gambhir A, Florin N, et al., 2012, Reducing CO2 emissions from heavy industry: a review of technologies and considerations for policy makers
Brown TA, Scala F, Scott SA, et al., 2011, The attrition behaviour of oxygen-carriers under inert and reacting conditions, Chemical Engineering Science
Brown TA, 2010, Chemical looping combustion with solid fuels
Brown TA, Dennis JS, Scott SA, et al., 2010, Gasification and Chemical-Looping Combustion of a Lignite Char in a Fluidized Bed of Iron Oxide, ENERGY & FUELS, Vol: 24, Pages: 3034-3048, ISSN: 0887-0624
Brown TA, Scala F, Scott SA, et al., 2010, Investigation of the attrition behaviour of an iron oxide oxygen-carrier under inert and reacting conditions, 1st International Conference on Chemical Looping
Mueller CR, Brown TA, Bohn CD, et al., 2009, Experimental investigation of two modified chemical looping cycles using syngas from cylinders and the gasification of Solid Fuels, 20th International Conference on Fluidised Bed Combustion
Brown TA, Dennis JS, Scott SA, et al., 2008, Chemical-looping combustion with solid fuels, 32nd International Symposium on Combustion
Scott SA, Dennis JS, Hayhurst AN, et al., 2006, In situ gasification of a solid fuel and CO2 separation using chemical looping, AIChE, Vol: 52, Pages: 3325-3328
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