Imperial College London
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DrTomSmith

Faculty of Natural Sciences, Department of Life Sciences (Silwood Park)

Research Associate
 
 
 
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Contact

 

thomas.smith1 Website

 
 
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Location

 

Unit CSilwood ParkSilwood Park

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Smith:2021:10.1073/pnas.2019284118,
author = {Smith, TP and Flaxman, S and Gallinat, AS and Kinosian, SP and Stemkovski, M and Unwin, HJT and Watson, OJ and Whittaker, C and Cattarino, L and Dorigatti, I and Tristem, M and Pearse, WD},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.2019284118},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of USA},
pages = {1--8},
title = {Temperature and population density influence SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the absence of nonpharmaceutical interventions},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2019284118},
volume = {118},
year = {2021}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - As COVID-19 continues to spread across the world, it is increasingly important to understand the factors that influence its transmission. Seasonal variation driven by responses to changing environment has been shown to affect the transmission intensity of several coronaviruses. However, the impact of the environment on severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) remains largely unknown, and thus seasonal variation remains a source of uncertainty in forecasts of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Here we address this issue by assessing the association of temperature, humidity, ultraviolet radiation, and population density with estimates of transmission rate (R). Using data from the United States, we explore correlates of transmission across US states using comparative regression and integrative epidemiological modeling. We find that policy intervention (“lockdown”) and reductions in individuals’ mobility are the major predictors of SARS-CoV-2 transmission rates, but, in their absence, lower temperatures and higher population densities are correlated with increased SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Our results show that summer weather cannot be considered a substitute for mitigation policies, but that lower autumn and winter temperatures may lead to an increase in transmission intensity in the absence of policy interventions or behavioral changes. We outline how this information may improve the forecasting of COVID-19, reveal its future seasonal dynamics, and inform intervention policies.
AU  - Smith,TP
AU  - Flaxman,S
AU  - Gallinat,AS
AU  - Kinosian,SP
AU  - Stemkovski,M
AU  - Unwin,HJT
AU  - Watson,OJ
AU  - Whittaker,C
AU  - Cattarino,L
AU  - Dorigatti,I
AU  - Tristem,M
AU  - Pearse,WD
DO  - 10.1073/pnas.2019284118
EP  - 8
PY  - 2021///
SN  - 0027-8424
SP  - 1
TI  - Temperature and population density influence SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the absence of nonpharmaceutical interventions
T2  - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of USA
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2019284118
UR  - https://www.webofscience.com/api/gateway?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000671755600012&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
UR  - https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.2019284118
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/105757
VL  - 118
ER  -
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