Imperial College London
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Dr Thomas Woodcock

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Senior Research Fellow
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 1838thomas.woodcock99

 
 
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Location

 

328Reynolds BuildingCharing Cross Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Nakubulwa:2022:ageing/afac038,
author = {Nakubulwa, M and Junghans, C and Novov, V and Lyons-Amos, C and Lovett, D and Majeed, A and Aylin, P and Woodcock, T},
doi = {ageing/afac038},
journal = {Age and Ageing},
pages = {1--9},
title = {Factors associated with accessing long-term adult social care in people aged 75 and over: a retrospective cohort study.},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ageing/afac038},
volume = {51},
year = {2022}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - BACKGROUND: An ageing population and limited resources have put strain on state provision of adult social care (ASC) in England. With social care needs predicted to double over the next 20 years, there is a need for new approaches to inform service planning and development, including through predictive models of demand. OBJECTIVE: Describe risk factors for long-term ASC in two inner London boroughs and develop a risk prediction model for long-term ASC. METHODS: Pseudonymised person-level data from an integrated care dataset were analysed. We used multivariable logistic regression to model associations of demographic factors, and baseline aspects of health status and health service use, with accessing long-term ASC over 12 months. RESULTS: The cohort comprised 13,394 residents, aged ≥75 years with no prior history of ASC at baseline. Of these, 1.7% became ASC clients over 12 months. Residents were more likely to access ASC if they were older or living in areas with high socioeconomic deprivation. Those with preexisting mental health or neurological conditions, or more intense prior health service use during the baseline period, were also more likely to access ASC. A prognostic model derived from risk factors had limited predictive power. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings reinforce evidence on known risk factors for residents aged 75 or over, yet even with linked routinely collected health and social care data, it was not possible to make accurate predictions of long-term ASC use for individuals. We propose that a paradigm shift towards more relational, personalised approaches, is needed.
AU  - Nakubulwa,M
AU  - Junghans,C
AU  - Novov,V
AU  - Lyons-Amos,C
AU  - Lovett,D
AU  - Majeed,A
AU  - Aylin,P
AU  - Woodcock,T
DO  - ageing/afac038
EP  - 9
PY  - 2022///
SN  - 0002-0729
SP  - 1
TI  - Factors associated with accessing long-term adult social care in people aged 75 and over: a retrospective cohort study.
T2  - Age and Ageing
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ageing/afac038
UR  - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35231093
UR  - https://academic.oup.com/ageing/article/51/3/afac038/6540138
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/98591
VL  - 51
ER  -
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