Imperial College London
Alternate

DrJamesBennett

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Statistical Manager
 
 
 
//

Contact

 

umahx99

 
 
//

Location

 

1120Sir Michael Uren HubWhite City Campus

//

Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Parks:2020:10.1038/s41591-019-0721-y,
author = {Parks, RM and Bennett, JE and Tamura-Wicks, H and Kontis, V and Toumi, R and Danaei, G and Ezzati, M},
doi = {10.1038/s41591-019-0721-y},
journal = {Nature Medicine},
pages = {65--70},
title = {Anomalously warm temperatures are associated with increased injury deaths},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41591-019-0721-y},
volume = {26},
year = {2020}
}
Download

RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - Temperatures  which  deviate  from  long-term  local  norm  affect  human  health,  and  are  projected to become more frequent as the global climate changes.1 There is limited data on how such anomalies affect deaths from injuries. Here, we used data on mortality and temperature  over  38  years  (1980-2017)  in  the  contiguous  USA  and  formulated  a  Bayesian  spatio-temporal  model  to  quantify  how  anomalous  temperatures,  defined  as  deviations  of  monthly  temperature  from  the  local  average  monthly  temperature  over  the entire   analysis   period,   affect  deaths   from   unintentional   (transport,   falls   and drownings)  and  intentional  (assault  and  suicide)  injuries,  by  age  group  and  sex.  We  found  that  a  1.5°C  anomalously  warm  year,  as  envisioned  under  the  Paris  Climate  Agreement,2 would be associated with an estimated 1,601 (95% credible interval 1,430-37 1,776)  additional  injury  deaths.  84%  of  these  additional  deaths  would  occur  in  males,  mostly in adolescent to middle ages. These deaths would comprise of increases in deaths 39 from drownings, transport, assault and suicide, offset partly by a decline in deaths from  falls in older ages. The findings demonstrate the need for targeted interventions against injuries  during  periods  of  anomalously  high  temperatures,  especially  as  these  episodes  are likely to increase with global climate change.
AU  - Parks,RM
AU  - Bennett,JE
AU  - Tamura-Wicks,H
AU  - Kontis,V
AU  - Toumi,R
AU  - Danaei,G
AU  - Ezzati,M
DO  - 10.1038/s41591-019-0721-y
EP  - 70
PY  - 2020///
SN  - 1078-8956
SP  - 65
TI  - Anomalously warm temperatures are associated with increased injury deaths
T2  - Nature Medicine
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41591-019-0721-y
UR  - https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-019-0721-y
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/75413
VL  - 26
ER  -
Download