Imperial College London

ProfessorWendyBarclay

Faculty of MedicineDepartment of Infectious Disease

Action Medical Research Chair Virology. Head of Department
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 5035w.barclay

 
 
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Location

 

416Medical SchoolSt Mary's Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Publication Type
Year
to

197 results found

Eales O, Walters C, Wang H, Haw D, Ainslie K, Atchison C, Page A, Prosolek S, Trotter A, Viet TL, Alikhan N-F, Jackson LM, Ludden C, COG UK TCGUKC, Ashby D, Donnelly C, Cooke G, Barclay W, Ward H, Darzi A, Elliott P, Riley Set al., 2021, Characterising the persistence of RT-PCR positivity and incidence in a community survey of SARS-CoV-2

BackgroundCommunity surveys of SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR swab-positivity provide prevalence estimates largely unaffected by biases from who presents for routine case testing. The REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) has estimated swab-positivity approximately monthly since May 2020 in England from RT-PCR testing of self-administeredthroat and nose swabs in random non-overlapping cross-sectional community samples. Estimating infection incidence from swab-positivity requires an understanding of the persistence of RT-PCR swab positivity in the community.MethodsDuring round 8 of REACT-1 from 6 January to 22 January 2021, of the 2,282 participants who tested RT-PCR positive, we recruited 896 (39%) from whom we collected up to two additional swabs for RT-PCR approximately 6 and 9 days after the initial swab. We estimated sensitivity and duration of positivity using an exponential model of positivity decay, for all participants and for subsets by initial N-gene cycle threshold (Ct) value, symptom status, lineage and age. Estimates of infection incidence were obtained for the entire duration of the REACT-1 study using P-splines.ResultsWe estimated the overall sensitivity of REACT-1 to detect virus on a single swab as 0.79 (0.77, 0.81) and median duration of positivity following a positive test as 9.7 (8.9, 10.6) days. We found greater median duration of positivity where there was a low N-gene Ct value, in those exhibiting symptoms, or for infection with the Alpha variant. The estimated proportionof positive individuals detected on first swab, was found to be higher 𝑃 for those with an 0 initially low N-gene Ct value and those who were pre-symptomatic. When compared to swab-positivity, estimates of infection incidence over the duration of REACT-1 included sharper features with evident transient increases around the time of key changes in socialdistancing measures.DiscussionHome self-swabbing for RT-PCR based on a single swab, as implemented in REACT-1, has hig

Working paper

Goldhill DH, Barclay WS, 2021, 2020 Hindsight: Should evolutionary virologists have expected the unexpected during a pandemic?, EVOLUTION, ISSN: 0014-3820

Journal article

Elliott P, Haw D, Wang H, Eales O, Walters C, Ainslie K, Atchison C, Fronterre C, Diggle P, Page A, Trotter A, Prosolek S, COG-UK TCGUKC, Ashby D, Donnelly C, Barclay W, Cooke G, Ward H, Darzi A, Riley Set al., 2021, REACT-1 round 13 final report: exponential growth, high prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 and vaccine effectiveness associated with Delta variant in England during May to July 2021

BackgroundThe prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection continues to drive rates of illness andhospitalisations despite high levels of vaccination, with the proportion of cases caused by theDelta lineage increasing in many populations. As vaccination programs roll out globally andsocial distancing is relaxed, future SARS-CoV-2 trends are uncertain.MethodsWe analysed prevalence trends and their drivers using reverse transcription-polymerasechain reaction (RT-PCR) swab-positivity data from round 12 (between 20 May and 7 June2021) and round 13 (between 24 June and 12 July 2021) of the REal-time Assessment ofCommunity Transmission-1 (REACT-1) study, with swabs sent to non-overlapping randomsamples of the population ages 5 years and over in England.ResultsWe observed sustained exponential growth with an average doubling time in round 13 of 25days (lower Credible Interval of 15 days) and an increase in average prevalence from 0.15%(0.12%, 0.18%) in round 12 to 0.63% (0.57%, 0.18%) in round 13. The rapid growth acrossand within rounds appears to have been driven by complete replacement of Alpha variant byDelta, and by the high prevalence in younger less-vaccinated age groups, with a nine-foldincrease between rounds 12 and 13 among those aged 13 to 17 years. Prevalence amongthose who reported being unvaccinated was three-fold higher than those who reported beingfully vaccinated. However, in round 13, 44% of infections occurred in fully vaccinatedindividuals, reflecting imperfect vaccine effectiveness against infection despite high overalllevels of vaccination. Using self-reported vaccination status, we estimated adjusted vaccineeffectiveness against infection in round 13 of 49% (22%, 67%) among participants aged 18to 64 years, which rose to 58% (33%, 73%) when considering only strong positives (Cyclethreshold [Ct] values < 27); also, we estimated adjusted vaccine effectiveness againstsymptomatic infection of 59% (23%, 78%), with any one of three common COVID-19symptoms reported

Working paper

Russell CD, Fairfield CJ, Drake TM, Turtle L, Seaton RA, Wootton DG, Sigfrid L, Harrison EM, Docherty AB, de Silva T, Egan C, Pius R, Hardwick HE, Merson L, Girvan M, Dunning J, Nguyen-Van-Tam JS, Openshaw PJM, Baillie JK, Semple MG, Ho Aet al., 2021, Co-infections, secondary infections, and antimicrobial use in patients hospitalised with COVID-19 during the first pandemic wave from the ISARIC WHO CCP-UK study: a multicentre, prospective cohort study, The Lancet Microbe, Vol: 2, Pages: E354-E365, ISSN: 2666-5247

BackgroundMicrobiological characterisation of co-infections and secondary infections in patients with COVID-19 is lacking, and antimicrobial use is high. We aimed to describe microbiologically confirmed co-infections and secondary infections, and antimicrobial use, in patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19.MethodsThe International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infections Consortium (ISARIC) WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK (CCP-UK) study is an ongoing, prospective cohort study recruiting inpatients from 260 hospitals in England, Scotland, and Wales, conducted by the ISARIC Coronavirus Clinical Characterisation Consortium. Patients with a confirmed or clinician-defined high likelihood of SARS-CoV-2 infection were eligible for inclusion in the ISARIC WHO CCP-UK study. For this specific study, we excluded patients with a recorded negative SARS-CoV-2 test result and those without a recorded outcome at 28 days after admission. Demographic, clinical, laboratory, therapeutic, and outcome data were collected using a prespecified case report form. Organisms considered clinically insignificant were excluded.FindingsWe analysed data from 48 902 patients admitted to hospital between Feb 6 and June 8, 2020. The median patient age was 74 years (IQR 59–84) and 20 786 (42·6%) of 48 765 patients were female. Microbiological investigations were recorded for 8649 (17·7%) of 48 902 patients, with clinically significant COVID-19-related respiratory or bloodstream culture results recorded for 1107 patients. 762 (70·6%) of 1080 infections were secondary, occurring more than 2 days after hospital admission. Staphylococcus aureus and Haemophilus influenzae were the most common pathogens causing respiratory co-infections (diagnosed ≤2 days after admission), with Enterobacteriaceae and S aureus most common in secondary respiratory infections. Bloodstream infections were most frequently caused by Escherichia coli a

Journal article

Ward H, Atchison C, Whitaker M, Donnelly CA, Riley S, Ashby D, Darzi A, Barclay WS, Cooke G, Elliott Pet al., 2021, Increasing SARS-CoV-2 antibody prevalence in England at the start of the second wave: REACT-2 Round 4 cross-sectional study in 160,000 adults

<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:sec><jats:title>Background</jats:title><jats:p>REACT-2 Study 5 is a population survey of the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in the community in England.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods</jats:title><jats:p>We contacted a random sample of the population by sending a letter to named individuals aged 18 or over from the NHS GP registrations list. We then sent respondents a lateral flow immunoassay (LFIA) kit for SARS-CoV-2 antibody self-testing and asked them to perform the test at home and complete a questionnaire, including reporting of their test result. Overall, 161,537 adults completed questionnaires and self-administered LFIA tests for IgG against SARS-CoV-2 between 27 October and 10 November 2020.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results</jats:title><jats:p>The overall adjusted and weighted prevalence was 5.6% (95% CI 5.4-5.7). This was an increase from 4.4% (4.3-4.5) in round 3 (September), a relative increase of 26.9% (24.0-29.9).The largest increase by age was in the 18 to 24 year old age group, which increased (adjusted and weighted) from 6.7% (6.3-7.2) to 9.9% (9.3-10.4), and in students, (adjusted, unweighted) from 5.9% (4.8-7.1) to 12.1% (10.8-13.5). Prevalence increased most in Yorkshire and The Humber, from 3.4% (3.0-3.8) to 6.3% (5.9-6.8) and the North West from 4.5% (4.2-4.9) to 7.7% (7.2-8.1). In contrast, the prevalence in London was stable, at 9.5% (9.0-9.9) and 9.5% (9.1-10.0) in rounds 3 and 4 respectively. We found the highest prevalence in people of Bangladeshi 15.1% (10.9-20.5), Pakistani 13.9% (11.2-17.2) and African 13.5% (10.7-16.8) ethnicity, and lowest in those of white British ethnicity at 4.2% (4.0-4.3).</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Interpretation</jats:title><jats:p>The second wave of infection in England is apparen

Journal article

Drake TM, Riad AM, Fairfield CJ, Egan C, Knight SR, Pius R, Hardwick HE, Norman L, Shaw CA, McLean KA, Thompson AAR, Ho A, Swann OV, Sullivan M, Soares F, Holden KA, Merson L, Plotkin D, Sigfrid L, de Silva TI, Girvan M, Jackson C, Russell CD, Dunning J, Solomon T, Carson G, Olliaro P, Nguyen-Van-Tam JS, Turtle L, Docherty AB, Openshaw PJ, Baillie JK, Harrison EM, Semple MG, ISARIC4C investigatorset al., 2021, Characterisation of in-hospital complications associated with COVID-19 using the ISARIC WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK: a prospective, multicentre cohort study, The Lancet, Vol: 398, Pages: 223-237, ISSN: 0140-6736

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 is a multisystem disease and patients who survive might have in-hospital complications. These complications are likely to have important short-term and long-term consequences for patients, health-care utilisation, health-care system preparedness, and society amidst the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Our aim was to characterise the extent and effect of COVID-19 complications, particularly in those who survive, using the International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infections Consortium WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK. METHODS: We did a prospective, multicentre cohort study in 302 UK health-care facilities. Adult patients aged 19 years or older, with confirmed or highly suspected SARS-CoV-2 infection leading to COVID-19 were included in the study. The primary outcome of this study was the incidence of in-hospital complications, defined as organ-specific diagnoses occurring alone or in addition to any hallmarks of COVID-19 illness. We used multilevel logistic regression and survival models to explore associations between these outcomes and in-hospital complications, age, and pre-existing comorbidities. FINDINGS: Between Jan 17 and Aug 4, 2020, 80β€ˆ388 patients were included in the study. Of the patients admitted to hospital for management of COVID-19, 49·7% (36β€ˆ367 of 73β€ˆ197) had at least one complication. The mean age of our cohort was 71·1 years (SD 18·7), with 56·0% (41β€ˆ025 of 73β€ˆ197) being male and 81·0% (59β€ˆ289 of 73β€ˆ197) having at least one comorbidity. Males and those aged older than 60 years were most likely to have a complication (aged ≥60 years: 54·5% [16β€ˆ579 of 30β€ˆ416] in males and 48·2% [11β€ˆ707 of 24β€ˆ288] in females; aged <60 years: 48·8% [5179 of 10β€ˆ609] in males and 36·6% [2814 of 7689] in females). Renal (24·3%, 17β€ˆ752 of 73β€ˆ197), complex respiratory (18·4%, 13β€ˆ486 of 73β€ˆ197), and systemic (16·3%, 11β€ˆ895 of 73β€ˆ197) complications were

Journal article

Ward H, Whitaker M, Tang SN, Atchison C, Darzi A, Donnelly C, Diggle P, Ashby D, Riley S, Barclay W, Elliott P, Cooke Get al., 2021, Vaccine uptake and SARS-CoV-2 antibody prevalence among 207,337 adults during May 2021 in England: REACT-2 study

Background The programme to vaccinate adults in England has been rapidly implementedsince it began in December 2020. The community prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 anti-spikeprotein antibodies provides an estimate of total cumulative response to natural infection andvaccination. We describe the distribution of SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies in adults inEngland in May 2021 at a time when approximately 7 in 10 adults had received at least onedose of vaccine.Methods Sixth round of REACT-2 (REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-2),a cross-sectional random community survey of adults in England, from 12 to 25 May 2021;207,337 participants completed questionnaires and self-administered a lateral flowimmunoassay test producing a positive or negative result.Results Vaccine coverage with one or more doses, weighted to the adult population inEngland, was 72.9% (95% confidence interval 72.7-73.0), varying by age from 25.1% (24.5-25.6) of those aged 18 to 24 years, to 99.2% (99.1-99.3) of those 75 years and older. Inadjusted models, odds of vaccination were lower in men (odds ratio [OR] 0.89 [0.85-0.94])than women, and in people of Black (0.41 [0.34-0.49]) compared to white ethnicity. Therewas higher vaccine coverage in the least deprived and highest income households. Peoplewho reported a history of COVID-19 were less likely to be vaccinated (OR 0.61 [0.55-0.67]).There was high coverage among health workers (OR 9.84 [8.79-11.02] and care workers (OR4.17 [3.20-5.43]) compared to non-key workers, but lower in hospitality and retail workers(OR 0.73 [0.64-0.82] and 0.77 [0.70-0.85] respectively) after adjusting for age and keycovariates.

Working paper

Riley S, Eales O, Haw D, Wang H, Walters C, Ainslie K, Christina A, Fronterre C, Diggle P, Ashby D, Donnelly C, Barclay W, Cooke G, Ward H, Darzi A, Elliott Pet al., 2021, REACT-1 round 13 interim report: acceleration of SARS-CoV-2 Delta epidemic in the community in England during late June and early July 2021

BackgroundDespite high levels of vaccination in the adult population, cases of COVID-19 have risenexponentially in England since the start of May 2021 driven by the Delta variant. However,with far fewer hospitalisations and deaths per case during the recent growth in casescompared with 2020, it is intended that all remaining social distancing legislation in Englandwill be removed from 19 July 2021.MethodsWe report interim results from round 13 of the REal-time Assessment of CommunityTransmission-1 (REACT-1) study in which a cross-sectional sample of the population ofEngland was asked to provide a throat and nose swab for RT-PCR and to answer aquestionnaire. Data collection for this report (round 13 interim) was from 24 June to 5 July2021.ResultsIn round 13 interim, we found 237 positives from 47,729 swabs giving a weighted prevalenceof 0.59% (0.51%, 0.68%) which was approximately four-fold higher compared with round 12at 0.15% (0.12%, 0.18%). This resulted from continued exponential growth in prevalencewith an average doubling time of 15 (13, 17) days between round 12 and round 13.However, during the recent period of round 13 interim only, we observed a shorter doublingtime of 6.1 (4.0, 12) days with a corresponding R number of 1.87 (1.40, 2.45). There weresubstantial increases in all age groups under the age of 75 years, and especially at youngerages, with the highest prevalence in 13 to 17 year olds at 1.33% (0.97%, 1.82%) and in 18 to24 years olds at 1.40% (0.89%, 2.18%). Infections have increased in all regions with thelargest increase in London where prevalence increased more than eight-fold from 0.13%(0.08%, 0.20%) in round 12 to 1.08% (0.79%, 1.47%) in round 13 interim. Overall,prevalence was over 3 times higher in the unvaccinated compared with those reporting twodoses of vaccine in both round 12 and round 13 interim, although there was a similarproportional increase in prevalence in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals between thetwo rounds.DiscussionWe

Working paper

Leach DA, Mohr A, Giotis ES, Cil E, Isac AM, Yates LL, Barclay WS, Zwacka RM, Bevan C, Brooke GNet al., 2021, The antiandrogen enzalutamide downregulates TMPRSS2 and reduces cellular entry of SARS-CoV-2 in human lung cells, Nature Communications, Vol: 12, Pages: 1-12, ISSN: 2041-1723

SARS-CoV-2 attacks various organs, most destructively the lung, and cellular entry requires two host cell surface proteins: ACE2 and TMPRSS2. Downregulation of one or both of these is thus a potential therapeutic approach for COVID-19. TMPRSS2 is a known target of the androgen receptor, a ligand-activated transcription factor; androgen receptor activation increases TMPRSS2 levels in various tissues, most notably prostate. We show here that treatment with the antiandrogen enzalutamide – a well-tolerated drug widely used in advanced prostate cancer – reduces TMPRSS2 levels in human lung cells and in mouse lung. Importantly, antiandrogens significantly reduced SARS-CoV-2 entry and infection in lung cells. In support of this experimental data, analysis of existing datasets shows striking co-expression of AR and TMPRSS2, including in specific lung cell types targeted by SARS-CoV-2. Together, the data presented provides strong evidence to support clinical trials to assess the efficacy of antiandrogens as a treatment option for COVID-19.

Journal article

Drake TM, Fairfield CJ, Pius R, Knight SR, Norman L, Girvan M, Hardwick HE, Docherty AB, Thwaites RS, Openshaw PJM, Baillie JK, Harrison EM, Semple MG, ISARIC4C Investigatorset al., 2021, Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug use and outcomes of COVID-19 in the ISARIC Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK cohort: a matched, prospective cohort study, The Lancet Rheumatology, Vol: 3, Pages: e498-e506, ISSN: 2665-9913

Background: Early in the pandemic it was suggested that pre-existing use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) could lead to increased disease severity in patients with COVID-19. NSAIDs are an important analgesic, particularly in those with rheumatological disease, and are widely available to the general public without prescription. Evidence from community studies, administrative data, and small studies of hospitalised patients suggest NSAIDs are not associated with poorer COVID-19 outcomes. We aimed to characterise the safety of NSAIDs and identify whether pre-existing NSAID use was associated with increased severity of COVID-19 disease. Methods: This prospective, multicentre cohort study included patients of any age admitted to hospital with a confirmed or highly suspected SARS-CoV-2 infection leading to COVID-19 between Jan 17 and Aug 10, 2020. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality, and secondary outcomes were disease severity at presentation, admission to critical care, receipt of invasive ventilation, receipt of non-invasive ventilation, use of supplementary oxygen, and acute kidney injury. NSAID use was required to be within the 2 weeks before hospital admission. We used logistic regression to estimate the effects of NSAIDs and adjust for confounding variables. We used propensity score matching to further estimate effects of NSAIDS while accounting for covariate differences in populations. Results: Between Jan 17 and Aug 10, 2020, we enrolled 78β€ˆ674 patients across 255 health-care facilities in England, Scotland, and Wales. 72β€ˆ179 patients had death outcomes available for matching; 40β€ˆ406 (56·2%) of 71β€ˆ915 were men, 31β€ˆ509 (43·8%) were women. In this cohort, 4211 (5·8%) patients were recorded as taking systemic NSAIDs before admission to hospital. Following propensity score matching, balanced groups of NSAIDs users and NSAIDs non-users were obtained (4205 patients in each group). At hospital admission, we observed no si

Journal article

Bloom CI, Drake TM, Docherty AB, Lipworth BJ, Johnston SL, Nguyen-Van-Tam JS, Carson G, Dunning J, Harrison EM, Baillie JK, Semple MG, Cullinan P, Openshaw PJM, Alex B, Bach B, Barclay WS, Bogaert D, Chand M, Cooke GS, Filipe AD, Fletcher T, Green CA, Harrison EM, Hiscox JA, Ho AY, Horby PW, Ijaz S, Khoo S, Klenerman P, Law A, Lim WS, Mentzer AJ, Merson L, Meynert AM, Noursadeghi M, Moore SC, Palmarini M, Paxton WA, Pollakis G, Price N, Rambaut A, Robertson DL, Russell CD, Sancho-Shimizu V, Scott JT, Silva TD, Sigfrid L, Solomon T, Sriskandan S, Stuart D, Summers C, Tedder RS, Thomson EC, Thompson AAR, Thwaites RS, Turtle LCW, Zambon M, Hardwick H, Donohue C, Lyons R, Griffiths F, Oosthuyzen W, Norman L, Pius R, Fairfield CJ, Knight SR, Mclean KA, Murphy D, Shaw CA, Dalton J, Girvan M, Saviciute E, Roberts S, Harrison J, Marsh L, Connor M, Halpin S, Jackson C, Gamble C, Leeming G, Law A, Wham M, Clohisey S, Hendry R, Scott-Brown J, Greenhalf W, Shaw V, McDonald S, Keating S, Ahmed KA, Armstrong JA, Ashworth M, Asiimwe IG, Bakshi S, Barlow SL, Booth L, Brennan B, Bullock K, Catterall BWA, Clark JJ, Clarke EA, Cole S, Cooper L, Cox H, Davis C, Dincarslan O, Dunn C, Dyer P, Elliott A, Evans A, Finch L, Fisher LWS, Foster T, Garcia-Dorival I, Greenhalf W, Gunning P, Hartley C, Jensen RL, Jones CB, Jones TR, Khandaker S, King K, Kiy RT, Koukorava C, Lake A, Lant S, Latawiec D, Lavelle-Langham L, Lefteri D, Lett L, Livoti LA, Mancini M, McDonald S, McEvoy L, McLauchlan J, Metelmann S, Miah NS, Middleton J, Mitchell J, Moore SC, Murphy EG, Penrice-Randal R, Pilgrim J, Prince T, Reynolds W, Ridley PM, Sales D, Shaw VE, Shears RK, Small B, Subramaniam KS, Szemiel A, Taggart A, Tanianis-Hughes J, Thomas J, Trochu E, Tonder LV, Wilcock E, Zhang JE, Flaherty L, Maziere N, Cass E, Carracedo AD, Carlucci N, Holmes A, Massey H, Adeniji K, Agranoff D, Agwuh K, Ail D, Alegria A, Angus B, Ashish A, Atkinson D, Bari S, Barlow G, Barnass S, Barrett N, Bassford C, Baxter D, Beadsworth Met al., 2021, Risk of adverse outcomes in patients with underlying respiratory conditions admitted to hospital with COVID-19: a national, multicentre prospective cohort study using the ISARIC WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK, The Lancet Respiratory Medicine, Vol: 9, Pages: 699-711, ISSN: 2213-2600

BackgroundStudies of patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 have found varying mortality outcomes associated with underlying respiratory conditions and inhaled corticosteroid use. Using data from a national, multicentre, prospective cohort, we aimed to characterise people with COVID-19 admitted to hospital with underlying respiratory disease, assess the level of care received, measure in-hospital mortality, and examine the effect of inhaled corticosteroid use.MethodsWe analysed data from the International Severe Acute Respiratory and emerging Infection Consortium (ISARIC) WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK (CCP-UK) study. All patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 across England, Scotland, and Wales between Jan 17 and Aug 3, 2020, were eligible for inclusion in this analysis. Patients with asthma, chronic pulmonary disease, or both, were identified and stratified by age (<16 years, 16–49 years, and ≥50 years). In-hospital mortality was measured by use of multilevel Cox proportional hazards, adjusting for demographics, comorbidities, and medications (inhaled corticosteroids, short-acting β-agonists [SABAs], and long-acting β-agonists [LABAs]). Patients with asthma who were taking an inhaled corticosteroid plus LABA plus another maintenance asthma medication were considered to have severe asthma.Findings75 463 patients from 258 participating health-care facilities were included in this analysis: 860 patients younger than 16 years (74 [8·6%] with asthma), 8950 patients aged 16–49 years (1867 [20·9%] with asthma), and 65 653 patients aged 50 years and older (5918 [9·0%] with asthma, 10 266 [15·6%] with chronic pulmonary disease, and 2071 [3·2%] with both asthma and chronic pulmonary disease). Patients with asthma were significantly more likely than those without asthma to receive critical care (patients aged 16–49 years: adjusted odds ratio [OR] 1·20 [95% CI

Journal article

Davis C, Logan N, Tyson G, Orton R, Harvey W, Haughney J, Perkins J, Peacock TP, Barclay WS, Cherepanov P, Palmarini M, Murcia PR, Patel AH, Robertson DL, Thomson EC, Willett BJet al., 2021, Reduced neutralisation of the Delta (B.1.617.2) SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern following vaccination

<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>Vaccines are proving to be highly effective in controlling hospitalisation and deaths associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection but the emergence of viral variants with novel antigenic profiles threatens to diminish their efficacy. Assessment of the ability of sera from vaccine recipients to neutralise SARS-CoV-2 variants will inform the success of strategies for minimising COVID19 cases and the design of effective antigenic formulations. Here, we examine the sensitivity of variants of concern (VOCs) representative of the B.1.617.1 and B.1.617.2 (first associated with infections in India) and B.1.351 (first associated with infection in South Africa) lineages of SARS-CoV-2 to neutralisation by sera from individuals vaccinated with the BNT162b2 (Pfizer/BioNTech) and ChAdOx1 (Oxford/AstraZeneca) vaccines. Across all vaccinated individuals, the spike glycoproteins from B.1.617.1 and B.1.617.2 conferred reductions in neutralisation of 4.31 and 5.11-fold respectively. The reduction seen with the B.1.617.2 lineage approached that conferred by the glycoprotein from B.1.351 (South African) variant (6.29-fold reduction) that is known to be associated with reduced vaccine efficacy. Neutralising antibody titres elicited by vaccination with two doses of BNT162b2 were significantly higher than those elicited by vaccination with two doses of ChAdOx1. Fold decreases in the magnitude of neutralisation titre following two doses of BNT162b2, conferred reductions in titre of 7.77, 11.30 and 9.56-fold respectively to B.1.617.1, B.1.617.2 and B.1.351 pseudoviruses, the reduction in neutralisation of the delta variant B.1.617.2 surpassing that of B.1.351. Fold changes in those vaccinated with two doses of ChAdOx1 were 0.69, 4.01 and 1.48 respectively. The accumulation of mutations in these VOCs, and others, demonstrate the quantifiable risk of antigenic drift and subsequent reduction in vaccine efficacy. Accordingly, booster vaccines b

Journal article

ISARIC Clinical Characterisation Group, 2021, COVID-19 symptoms at hospital admission vary with age and sex: results from the ISARIC prospective multinational observational study, Infection: journal of infectious disease, ISSN: 0300-8126

BACKGROUND: The ISARIC prospective multinational observational study is the largest cohort of hospitalized patients with COVID-19. We present relationships of age, sex, and nationality to presenting symptoms. METHODS: International, prospective observational study of 60 109 hospitalized symptomatic patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 recruited from 43 countries between 30 January and 3 August 2020. Logistic regression was performed to evaluate relationships of age and sex to published COVID-19 case definitions and the most commonly reported symptoms. RESULTS: 'Typical' symptoms of fever (69%), cough (68%) and shortness of breath (66%) were the most commonly reported. 92% of patients experienced at least one of these. Prevalence of typical symptoms was greatest in 30- to 60-year-olds (respectively 80, 79, 69%; at least one 95%). They were reported less frequently in children (≤ 18 years: 69, 48, 23; 85%), older adults (≥ 70 years: 61, 62, 65; 90%), and women (66, 66, 64; 90%; vs. men 71, 70, 67; 93%, each P < 0.001). The most common atypical presentations under 60 years of age were nausea and vomiting and abdominal pain, and over 60 years was confusion. Regression models showed significant differences in symptoms with sex, age and country. INTERPRETATION: This international collaboration has allowed us to report reliable symptom data from the largest cohort of patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19. Adults over 60 and children admitted to hospital with COVID-19 are less likely to present with typical symptoms. Nausea and vomiting are common atypical presentations under 30 years. Confusion is a frequent atypical presentation of COVID-19 in adults over 60 years. Women are less likely to experience typical symptoms than men.

Journal article

Davies B, Araghi M, Moshe M, Gao H, Bennet K, Jenkins J, Atchison C, Darzi A, Ashby D, Riley S, Barclay W, Elliott P, Ward H, Cooke Get al., 2021, Acceptability, usability and performance of lateral flow immunoassay tests for SARSCoV-2 antibodies: REACT-2 study of self-testing in non-healthcare key workers, Publisher: Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory

BackgroundSeroprevalence studies in key worker populations are essential to understand the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2. Various technologies, including laboratory assays and pointof-care self-tests, are available for antibody testing. The interpretation of seroprevalence studies requires comparative data on the performance of antibody tests.MethodsIn June 2020, current and former members of the UK Police forces and Fire service performed a self-test lateral flow immunoassay (LFIA) and provided a saliva sample, nasopharyngeal swab, venous blood samples for Abbott ELISA and had a nurse performed LFIA. We present the prevalence of PCR positivity and antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in this cohort following the first wave of infection in England; the acceptability and usability of selftest LFIAs (defined as use of the LFIA kit and provision of a valid result, respectively); and determine the sensitivity and specificity of LFIAs compared to laboratory ELISAs.ResultsIn this cohort of non-healthcare key workers, 7.4% (396/5,348; 95% CI, 6.7-8.1) were antibody positive. Seroprevalence was 8.9% (6.9-11.4) in those under 40 years, 11.5% (8.8-15.0) in those of non-white British ethnicity and 7.8% (7.1-8.7) in those currently working.The self-test LFIA had an acceptability of 97.7% and a usability of 90.0%. There was substantial agreement between within-participant LFIA results (kappa 0.80; 0.77-0.83). The LFIAs (self-test and nurse-performed) had a similar performance: compared to ELISA, sensitivity was 82.1% (77.7-86.0) self-test and 76.4% (71.9-80.5) nurse-performed with specificity of 97.8% (97.3-98.2) and 98.5% (98.1-98.8) respectively.ConclusionA greater proportion of the non-healthcare key worker cohort showed evidence of previous infection with SARS-CoV-2 than the general population at 6.0% (5.8-6.1) following the first wave in England. The high acceptability and usability reported by participants and the similar performance of self-test and nurse-performed LFIAs indicate that t

Working paper

Riley S, Wang H, Eales O, Haw D, Walters C, Ainslie K, Atchison C, Fronterre C, Diggle P, Page A, Prosolek S, Trotter AJ, Le Viet T, Alikhan N-F, The COVID-19 Genomics UK Consortium COG-UK, Ashby D, Donnelly C, Cooke G, Barclay W, Ward H, Darzi A, Elliott Pet al., 2021, REACT-1 round 12 report: resurgence of SARS-CoV-2 infections in England associated with increased frequency of the Delta variant

BackgroundEngland entered a third national lockdown from 6 January 2021 due to the COVID-19pandemic. Despite a successful vaccine rollout during the first half of 2021, cases andhospitalisations have started to increase since the end of May as the SARS-CoV-2 Delta(B.1.617.2) variant increases in frequency. The final step of relaxation of COVID-19restrictions in England has been delayed from 21 June to 19 July 2021.MethodsThe REal-time Assessment of Community Transmision-1 (REACT-1) study measures theprevalence of swab-positivity among random samples of the population of England. Round12 of REACT-1 obtained self-administered swab collections from participants from 20 May2021 to 7 June 2021; results are compared with those for round 11, in which swabs werecollected from 15 April to 3 May 2021.ResultsBetween rounds 11 and 12, national prevalence increased from 0.10% (0.08%, 0.13%) to0.15% (0.12%, 0.18%). During round 12, we detected exponential growth with a doublingtime of 11 (7.1, 23) days and an R number of 1.44 (1.20, 1.73). The highest prevalence wasfound in the North West at 0.26% (0.16%, 0.41%) compared to 0.05% (0.02%, 0.12%) in theSouth West. In the North West, the locations of positive samples suggested a cluster inGreater Manchester and the east Lancashire area. Prevalence in those aged 5-49 was 2.5times higher at 0.20% (0.16%, 0.26%) compared with those aged 50 years and above at0.08% (0.06%, 0.11%). At the beginning of February 2021, the link between infection ratesand hospitalisations and deaths started to weaken, although in late April 2021, infectionrates and hospital admissions started to reconverge. When split by age, the weakened linkbetween infection rates and hospitalisations at ages 65 years and above was maintained,while the trends converged below the age of 65 years. The majority of the infections in theyounger group occurred in the unvaccinated population or those without a stated vaccinehistory. We observed the rapid replacement of the Alpha (

Working paper

Leclerc QJ, Fuller NM, Keogh RH, Diaz-Ordaz K, Sekula R, Semple MG, ISARIC4C Investigators, CMMID COVID-19 Working Group, Atkins KE, Procter SR, Knight GMet al., 2021, Importance of patient bed pathways and length of stay differences in predicting COVID-19 hospital bed occupancy in England., BMC Health Services Research, Vol: 21, Pages: 1-15, ISSN: 1472-6963

BACKGROUND: Predicting bed occupancy for hospitalised patients with COVID-19 requires understanding of length of stay (LoS) in particular bed types. LoS can vary depending on the patient's "bed pathway" - the sequence of transfers of individual patients between bed types during a hospital stay. In this study, we characterise these pathways, and their impact on predicted hospital bed occupancy. METHODS: We obtained data from University College Hospital (UCH) and the ISARIC4C COVID-19 Clinical Information Network (CO-CIN) on hospitalised patients with COVID-19 who required care in general ward or critical care (CC) beds to determine possible bed pathways and LoS. We developed a discrete-time model to examine the implications of using either bed pathways or only average LoS by bed type to forecast bed occupancy. We compared model-predicted bed occupancy to publicly available bed occupancy data on COVID-19 in England between March and August 2020. RESULTS: In both the UCH and CO-CIN datasets, 82% of hospitalised patients with COVID-19 only received care in general ward beds. We identified four other bed pathways, present in both datasets: "Ward, CC, Ward", "Ward, CC", "CC" and "CC, Ward". Mean LoS varied by bed type, pathway, and dataset, between 1.78 and 13.53 days. For UCH, we found that using bed pathways improved the accuracy of bed occupancy predictions, while only using an average LoS for each bed type underestimated true bed occupancy. However, using the CO-CIN LoS dataset we were not able to replicate past data on bed occupancy in England, suggesting regional LoS heterogeneities. CONCLUSIONS: We identified five bed pathways, with substantial variation in LoS by bed type, pathway, and geography. This might be caused by local differences in patient characteristics, clinical care strategies, or resource availability, and suggests that national LoS averages may not be appropriate for local forecasts of bed occ

Journal article

Braga L, Ali H, Secco I, Chiavacci E, Neves G, Goldhill D, Penn R, Jimenez-Guardeno JM, Ortega-Prieto AM, Bussani R, Cannata A, Rizzari G, Collesi C, Schneider E, Arosio D, Shah AM, Barclay WS, Malim MH, Burrone J, Giacca Met al., 2021, Drugs that inhibit TMEM16 proteins block SARS-CoV-2 spike-induced syncytia, NATURE, Vol: 594, Pages: 88-+, ISSN: 0028-0836

Journal article

Goldhill DH, Yan A, Frise R, Zhou J, Shelley J, Cortes AG, Miah S, Akinbami O, Galiano M, Zambon M, Lackenby A, Barclay WSet al., 2021, Favipiravir-resistant influenza A virus shows potential for transmission, PLoS Pathogens, Vol: 17, Pages: 1-17, ISSN: 1553-7366

Favipiravir is a nucleoside analogue which has been licensed to treat influenza in the event of a new pandemic. We previously described a favipiravir resistant influenza A virus generated by in vitro passage in presence of drug with two mutations: K229R in PB1, which conferred resistance at a cost to polymerase activity, and P653L in PA, which compensated for the cost of polymerase activity. However, the clinical relevance of these mutations is unclear as the mutations have not been found in natural isolates and it is unknown whether viruses harbouring these mutations would replicate or transmit in vivo. Here, we infected ferrets with a mix of wild type p(H1N1) 2009 and corresponding favipiravir-resistant virus and tested for replication and transmission in the absence of drug. Favipiravir-resistant virus successfully infected ferrets and was transmitted by both contact transmission and respiratory droplet routes. However, sequencing revealed the mutation that conferred resistance, K229R, decreased in frequency over time within ferrets. Modelling revealed that due to a fitness advantage for the PA P653L mutant, reassortment with the wild-type virus to gain wild-type PB1 segment in vivo resulted in the loss of the PB1 resistance mutation K229R. We demonstrated that this fitness advantage of PA P653L in the background of our starting virus A/England/195/2009 was due to a maladapted PA in first wave isolates from the 2009 pandemic. We show there is no fitness advantage of P653L in more recent pH1N1 influenza A viruses. Therefore, whilst favipiravir-resistant virus can transmit in vivo, the likelihood that the resistance mutation is retained in the absence of drug pressure may vary depending on the genetic background of the starting viral strain.

Journal article

Riley S, Ainslie KEC, Eales O, Walters CE, Wang H, Atchison C, Fronterre C, Diggle PJ, Ashby D, Donnelly CA, Cooke G, Barclay W, Ward H, Darzi A, Elliott Pet al., 2021, Resurgence of SARS-CoV-2: detection by community viral surveillance, Science, Vol: 372, Pages: 990-995, ISSN: 0036-8075

Surveillance of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic has mainly relied on case reporting, which is biased by health service performance, test availability, and test-seeking behaviors. We report a community-wide national representative surveillance program in England based on self-administered swab results from ~594,000 individuals tested for SARS-CoV-2, regardless of symptoms, between May and the beginning of September 2020. The epidemic declined between May and July 2020 but then increased gradually from mid-August, accelerating into early September 2020 at the start of the second wave. When compared with cases detected through routine surveillance, we report here a longer period of decline and a younger age distribution. Representative community sampling for SARS-CoV-2 can substantially improve situational awareness and feed into the public health response even at low prevalence.

Journal article

Peacock TP, Sheppard CM, Brown JC, Goonawardane N, Zhou J, Whiteley M, de Silva TI, Barclay WSet al., 2021, The SARS-CoV-2 variants associated with infections in India, B.1.617, show enhanced spike cleavage by furin

<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>The spike (S) glycoprotein of the SARS-CoV-2 virus that emerged in 2019 contained a suboptimal furin cleavage site at the S1/S2 junction with the sequence <jats:sub>681</jats:sub>P<jats:bold>RR</jats:bold>A<jats:bold>R</jats:bold>/S<jats:sub>686</jats:sub>. This cleavage site is required for efficient airway replication, transmission, and pathogenicity of the virus. The B.1.617 lineage has recently emerged in India, coinciding with substantial disease burden across the country. Early evidence suggests that B.1.617.2 (a sublineage of B.1.617) is more highly transmissible than contemporary lineages. B.1.617 and its sublineages contain a constellation of S mutations including the substitution P681R predicted to further optimise this furin cleavage site. We provide experimental evidence that virus of the B.1.617 lineage has enhanced S cleavage, that enhanced processing of an expressed B.1.617 S protein in cells is due to P681R, and that this mutation enables more efficient cleavage of a peptide mimetic of the B.1.617 S1/S2 cleavage site by recombinant furin. Together, these data demonstrate viruses in this emerging lineage have enhanced S cleavage by furin which we hypothesise could be enhancing transmissibility and pathogenicity.</jats:p>

Journal article

Docherty AB, Mulholland RH, Lone NI, Cheyne CP, De Angelis D, Diaz-Ordaz K, Donegan C, Drake TM, Dunning J, Funk S, GarcΓ­a-FiΓ±ana M, Girvan M, Hardwick HE, Harrison J, Ho A, Hughes DM, Keogh RH, Kirwan PD, Leeming G, Nguyen Van-Tam JS, Pius R, Russell CD, Spencer RG, Tom BD, Turtle L, Openshaw PJ, Baillie JK, Harrison EM, Semple MG, ISARIC4C Investigatorset al., 2021, Changes in in-hospital mortality in the first wave of COVID-19: a multicentre prospective observational cohort study using the WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK, The Lancet Respiratory Medicine, Vol: 9, Pages: 773-785, ISSN: 2213-2600

BACKGROUND: Mortality rates in hospitalised patients with COVID-19 in the UK appeared to decline during the first wave of the pandemic. We aimed to quantify potential drivers of this change and identify groups of patients who remain at high risk of dying in hospital. METHODS: In this multicentre prospective observational cohort study, the International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infections Consortium WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK recruited a prospective cohort of patients with COVID-19 admitted to 247 acute hospitals in England, Scotland, and Wales during the first wave of the pandemic (between March 9 and Aug 2, 2020). We included all patients aged 18 years and older with clinical signs and symptoms of COVID-19 or confirmed COVID-19 (by RT-PCR test) from assumed community-acquired infection. We did a three-way decomposition mediation analysis using natural effects models to explore associations between week of admission and in-hospital mortality, adjusting for confounders (demographics, comorbidities, and severity of illness) and quantifying potential mediators (level of respiratory support and steroid treatment). The primary outcome was weekly in-hospital mortality at 28 days, defined as the proportion of patients who had died within 28 days of admission of all patients admitted in the observed week, and it was assessed in all patients with an outcome. This study is registered with the ISRCTN Registry, ISRCTN66726260. FINDINGS: Between March 9, and Aug 2, 2020, we recruited 80 713 patients, of whom 63 972 were eligible and included in the study. Unadjusted weekly in-hospital mortality declined from 32·3% (95% CI 31·8-32·7) in March 9 to April 26, 2020, to 16·4% (15·0-17·8) in June 15 to Aug 2, 2020. Reductions in mortality were observed in all age groups, in all ethnic groups, for both sexes, and in patients with and without comorbidities. After adjustment, there was a 32% reduction in

Journal article

Riley S, Haw D, Walters C, Wang H, Eales O, Ainslie K, Atchison C, Fronterre C, Diggle P, Page A, Trotter A, Viet TL, Nabil-Fareed A, O'Grady J, The COVID-19 Genomics UK Consortium, Ashby D, Donnelly C, Cooke G, Barclay W, Ward H, Darzi A, Elliott Pet al., 2021, REACT-1 round 11 report: low prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the community prior to the third step of the English roadmap out of lockdown

BackgroundNational epidemic dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 infections are being driven by: the degree of recent indoor mixing (both social and workplace), vaccine coverage, intrinsic properties of the circulating lineages, and prior history of infection (via natural immunity). In England, infections, hospitalisations and deaths fell during the first two steps of the “roadmap” for exiting the third national lockdown. The third step of the roadmap in England takes place on 17 May 2021.MethodsWe report the most recent findings on community infections from the REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) study in which a swab is obtained from a representative cross-sectional sample of the population in England and tested using PCR. Round 11 of REACT-1 commenced self-administered swab-collection on 15 April 2021 and completed collections on 3 May 2021. We compare the results of REACT-1 round 11 to round 10, in which swabs were collected from 11 to 30 March 2021.ResultsBetween rounds 10 and 11, prevalence of swab-positivity dropped by 50% in England from 0.20% (0.17%, 0.23%) to 0.10% (0.08%, 0.13%), with a corresponding R estimate of 0.90 (0.87, 0.94). Rates of swab-positivity fell in the 55 to 64 year old group from 0.17% (0.12%, 0.25%) in round 10 to 0.06% (0.04%, 0.11%) in round 11. Prevalence in round 11 was higher in the 25 to 34 year old group at 0.21% (0.12%, 0.38%) than in the 55 to 64 year olds and also higher in participants of Asian ethnicity at 0.31% (0.16%, 0.60%) compared with white participants at 0.09% (0.07%, 0.11%). Based on sequence data for positive samples for which a lineage could be identified, we estimate that 92.3% (75.9%, 97.9%, n=24) of infections were from the B.1.1.7 lineage compared to 7.7% (2.1%, 24.1%, n=2) from the B.1.617.2 lineage. Both samples from the B.1.617.2 lineage were detected in London from participants not reporting travel in the previous two weeks. Also, allowing for suitable lag periods, the prior close alig

Working paper

Eales O, Page AJ, Tang S, Walters C, Wang H, Haw D, Trotter AJ, Viet TL, Foster-Nyarko E, Prosolek S, Atchison C, Ashby D, Cooke G, Barclay W, Donnelly C, O'Grady J, Volz E, The COVID-19 Genomics UK Consortium, Darzi A, Ward H, Elliott P, Riley Set al., 2021, SARS-CoV-2 lineage dynamics in England from January to March 2021 inferred from representative community samples

Genomic surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 lineages informs our understanding of possible future changes in transmissibility and vaccine efficacy. However, small changes in the frequency of one lineage over another are often difficult to interpret because surveillance samples are obtained from a variety of sources. Here, we describe lineage dynamics and phylogenetic relationships using sequences obtained from a random community sample who provided a throat and nose swab for rt-PCR during the first three months of 2021 as part of the REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) study. Overall, diversity decreased during the first quarter of 2021, with the B.1.1.7 lineage (first identified in Kent) predominant, driven by a 0.3 unit higher reproduction number over the prior wild type. During January, positive samples were more likely B.1.1.7 in younger and middle-aged adults (aged 18 to 54) than in other age groups. Although individuals infected with the B.1.1.7 lineage were no more likely to report one or more classic COVID-19 symptoms compared to those infected with wild type, they were more likely to be antibody positive 6 weeks after infection. Viral load was higher in B.1.1.7 infection as measured by cycle threshold (Ct) values, but did not account for the increased rate of testing positive for antibodies. The presence of infections with non-imported B.1.351 lineage (first identified in South Africa) during January, but not during February or March, suggests initial establishment in the community followed by fade-out. However, this occurred during a period of stringent social distancing and targeted public health interventions and does not immediately imply similar lineages could not become established in the future. Sequence data from representative community surveys such as REACT-1 can augment routine genomic surveillance.

Working paper

Lee LYY, Zhou J, Koszalka P, Frise R, Farrukee R, Baba K, Miah S, Shishido T, Galiano M, Hashimoto T, Omoto S, Uehara T, Mifsud EJ, Collinson N, Kuhlbusch K, Clinch B, Wildum S, Barclay WS, Hurt ACet al., 2021, Evaluating the fitness of PA/I38T-substituted influenza A viruses with reduced baloxavir susceptibility in a competitive mixtures ferret model, PLOS PATHOGENS, Vol: 17, ISSN: 1553-7366

Journal article

Ward H, Cooke GS, Atchison C, Whitaker M, Elliott J, Moshe M, Brown JC, Flower B, Daunt A, Ainslie K, Ashby D, Donnelly CA, Riley S, Darzi A, Barclay W, Elliott Pet al., 2021, Prevalence of antibody positivity to SARS-CoV-2 following the first peak of infection in England: Serial cross-sectional studies of 365,000 adults, The Lancet Regional Health - Europe, Vol: 4, Pages: 1-7, ISSN: 2666-7762

BackgroundThe time-concentrated nature of the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in England in March and April 2020 provides a natural experiment to measure changes in antibody positivity at the population level before onset of the second wave and initiation of the vaccination programme.MethodsThree cross-sectional national surveys with non-overlapping random samples of the population in England undertaken between late June and September 2020 (REACT-2 study). 365,104 adults completed questionnaires and self-administered lateral flow immunoassay (LFIA) tests for IgG against SARS-CoV-2.FindingsOverall, 17,576 people had detectable antibodies, a prevalence of 4.9% (95% confidence intervals 4.9, 5.0) when adjusted for test characteristics and weighted to the adult population of England. The prevalence declined from 6.0% (5.8, 6.1), to 4.8% (4.7, 5.0) and 4.4% (4.3, 4.5), over the three rounds of the study a difference of -26.5% (-29.0, -23.8). The highest prevalence and smallest overall decline in positivity was in the youngest age group (18-24 years) at -14.9% (-21.6, -8.1), and lowest prevalence and largest decline in the oldest group (>74 years) at -39.0% (-50.8, -27.2). The decline from June to September 2020 was largest in those who did not report a history of COVID-19 at -64.0% (-75.6, -52.3), compared to -22.3% (-27.0, -17.7) in those with SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed on PCR.InterpretationA large proportion of the population remained susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection in England based on naturally acquired immunity from the first wave. Widespread vaccination is needed to confer immunity and control the epidemic at population level.FundingThis work was funded by the Department of Health and Social Care in England.

Journal article

Peacock TP, Goldhill DH, Zhou J, Baillon L, Frise R, Swann OC, Kugathasan R, Penn R, Brown JC, Sanchez-David RY, Braga L, Williamson MK, Hassard JA, Staller E, Hanley B, Osborn M, Giacca M, Davidson AD, Matthews DA, Barclay WSet al., 2021, The furin cleavage site in the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein is required for transmission in ferrets, NATURE MICROBIOLOGY, Vol: 6, Pages: 899-+, ISSN: 2058-5276

Journal article

Brown JC, Moshe M, Blackwell A, Barclay WSet al., 2021, Inactivation of SARS-CoV-2 in chlorinated swimming pool water

<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>SARS-CoV-2 transmission remains a global problem which exerts a significant direct cost to public health. Additionally, other aspects of physical and mental health can be affected by limited access to social and exercise venues as a result of lockdowns in the community or personal reluctance due to safety concerns. Swimming pools have reopened in the UK as of April 12<jats:sup>th</jats:sup>, but the effect of swimming pool water on inactivation of SARS-CoV-2 has not yet been directly demonstrated. Here we demonstrate that water which adheres to UK swimming pool guidelines is sufficient to reduce SARS-CoV-2 infectious titre by at least 3 orders of magnitude.</jats:p>

Journal article

Pinto AL, Rai RK, Brown JC, Griffin P, Edgar JR, Shah A, Singanayagam A, Hogg C, Barclay WS, Futter CE, Burgoyne Tet al., 2021, Ultrastructural insight into SARS-CoV-2 attachment, entry and budding in human airway epithelium

<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>Ultrastructural studies of SARS-CoV-2 infected cells are crucial to better understand the mechanisms of viral entry and budding within host cells. Many studies are limited by the lack of access to appropriate cellular models. As the airway epithelium is the primary site of infection it is essential to study SARS-CoV-2 infection of these cells. Here, we examined human airway epithelium, grown as highly differentiated air-liquid interface cultures and infected with three different isolates of SARS-CoV-2 including the B.1.1.7 variant (Variant of Concern 202012/01) by transmission electron microscopy and tomography. For all isolates, the virus infected ciliated but not goblet epithelial cells. Two key SARS-CoV-2 entry molecules, ACE2 and TMPRSS2, were found to be localised to the plasma membrane including microvilli but excluded from cilia. Consistent with these observations, extracellular virions were frequently seen associated with microvilli and the apical plasma membrane but rarely with ciliary membranes. Profiles indicative of viral fusion at the apical plasma membrane demonstrate that the plasma membrane is one site of entry where direct fusion releasing the nucleoprotein-encapsidated genome occurs. Intact intracellular virions were found within ciliated cells in compartments with a single membrane bearing S glycoprotein. Profiles strongly suggesting viral budding from the membrane was observed in these compartments and this may explain how virions gain their S glycoprotein containing envelope.</jats:p>

Journal article

Riley S, Eales O, Haw D, Walters C, Wang H, Ainslie K, Atchison C, Fronterre C, Diggle P, Ashby D, Donnelly C, Cooke G, Barclay W, Ward H, Darzi A, Elliott Pet al., 2021, REACT-1 round 10 report: Level prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 swab-positivity in England during third national lockdown in March 2021

BackgroundIn England, hospitalisations and deaths due to SARS-CoV-2 have been falling consistentlysince January 2021 during the third national lockdown of the COVID-19 pandemic. The firstsignificant relaxation of that lockdown occurred on 8 March when schools reopened.MethodsThe REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) study augmentsroutine surveillance data for England by measuring swab-positivity for SARS-CoV-2 in thecommunity. The current round, round 10, collected swabs from 11 to 30 March 2021 and iscompared here to round 9, in which swabs were collected from 4 to 23 February 2021.ResultsDuring round 10, we estimated an R number of 1.00 (95% confidence interval 0.81, 1.21).Between rounds 9 and 10 we estimated national prevalence has dropped by ~60% from0.49% (0.44%, 0.55%) in February to 0.20% (0.17%, 0.23%) in March. There weresubstantial falls in weighted regional prevalence: in South East from 0.36% (0.29%, 0.44%)in round 9 to 0.07% (0.04%, 0.12%) in round 10; London from 0.60% (0.48%, 0.76%) to0.16% (0.10%, 0.26%); East of England from 0.47% (0.36%, 0.60%) to 0.15% (0.10%,0.24%); East Midlands from 0.59% (0.45%, 0.77%) to 0.19% (0.13%, 0.28%); and NorthWest from 0.69% (0.54%, 0.88%) to 0.31% (0.21%, 0.45%). Areas of apparent higherprevalence remain in parts of the North West, and Yorkshire and The Humber. The highestprevalence in March was found among school-aged children 5 to 12 years at 0.41% (0.27%,0.62%), compared with the lowest in those aged 65 to 74 and 75 and over at 0.09% (0.05%,0.16%). The close approximation between prevalence of infections and deaths (suitablylagged) is diverging, suggesting that infections may have resulted in fewer hospitalisationsand deaths since the start of widespread vaccination.ConclusionWe report a sharp decline in prevalence of infections between February and March 2021.We did not observe an increase in the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 following the reopening ofschools in England, although the decline of p

Working paper

Gupta RK, Harrison EM, Ho A, Docherty AB, Knight SR, van Smeden M, Abubakar I, Lipman M, Quartagno M, Pius R, Buchan I, Carson G, Drake TM, Dunning J, Fairfield CJ, Gamble C, Green CA, Halpin S, Hardwick HE, Holden KA, Horby PW, Jackson C, Mclean KA, Merson L, Nguyen-Van-Tam JS, Norman L, Olliaro PL, Pritchard MG, Russell CD, Scott-Brown J, Shaw CA, Sheikh A, Solomon T, Sudlow C, Swann OV, Turtle L, Openshaw PJM, Baillie JK, Semple MG, Noursadeghi M, Baillie JK, Semple MG, Openshaw PJM, Carson G, Alex B, Bach B, Barclay WS, Bogaert D, Chand M, Cooke GS, Docherty AB, Dunning J, Filipe ADS, Fletcher T, Green CA, Harrison EM, Hiscox JA, Ho AYW, Horby PW, Ijaz S, Khoo S, Klenerman P, Law A, Lim WS, Mentzer AJ, Merson L, Meynert AM, Noursadeghi M, Moore SC, Palmarini M, Paxton WA, Pollakis G, Price N, Rambaut A, Robertson DL, Russell CD, Sancho-Shimizu V, Scott JT, de Silva T, Sigfrid L, Solomon T, Sriskandan S, Stuart D, Summers C, Tedder RS, Thomson EC, Thompson AAR, Thwaites RS, Turtle LCW, Zambon M, Hardwick H, Donohue C, Lyons R, Griffiths F, Oosthuyzen W, Norman L, Pius R, Drake TM, Fairfield CJ, Knight S, Mclean KA, Murphy D, Shaw CA, Dalton J, Lee J, Plotkin D, Girvan M, Mullaney S, Petersen C, Saviciute E, Roberts S, Harrison J, Marsh L, Connor M, Halpin S, Jackson C, Gamble C, Leeming G, Law A, Wham M, Clohisey S, Hendry R, Scott-Brown J, Greenhalf W, Shaw V, McDonald S, Keating S, Ahmed KA, Armstrong JA, Ashworth M, Asiimwe IG, Bakshi S, Barlow SL, Booth L, Brennan B, Bullock K, Catterall BWA, Clark JJ, Clarke EA, Cole S, Cooper L, Cox H, Davis C, Dincarslan O, Dunn C, Dyer P, Elliott A, Evans A, Finch L, Fisher LWS, Foster T, Garcia-Dorival I, Greenhalf W, Gunning P, Hartley C, Ho A, Jensen RL, Jones CB, Jones TR, Khandaker S, King K, Kiy RT, Koukorava C, Lake A, Lant S, Latawiec D, Lavelle-Langham L, Lefteri D, Lett L, Livoti LA, Mancini M, McDonald S, McEvoy L, McLauchlan J, Metelmann S, Miah NS, Middleton J, Mitchell J, Moore SC, Murphy EG, Penrice-Randalet al., 2021, Development and validation of the ISARIC 4C Deterioration model for adults hospitalised with COVID-19: a prospective cohort study, The Lancet Respiratory Medicine, Vol: 9, Pages: 349-359, ISSN: 2213-2600

BackgroundPrognostic models to predict the risk of clinical deterioration in acute COVID-19 cases are urgently required to inform clinical management decisions.MethodsWe developed and validated a multivariable logistic regression model for in-hospital clinical deterioration (defined as any requirement of ventilatory support or critical care, or death) among consecutively hospitalised adults with highly suspected or confirmed COVID-19 who were prospectively recruited to the International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infections Consortium Coronavirus Clinical Characterisation Consortium (ISARIC4C) study across 260 hospitals in England, Scotland, and Wales. Candidate predictors that were specified a priori were considered for inclusion in the model on the basis of previous prognostic scores and emerging literature describing routinely measured biomarkers associated with COVID-19 prognosis. We used internal–external cross-validation to evaluate discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility across eight National Health Service (NHS) regions in the development cohort. We further validated the final model in held-out data from an additional NHS region (London).Findings74β€ˆ944 participants (recruited between Feb 6 and Aug 26, 2020) were included, of whom 31β€ˆ924 (43·2%) of 73β€ˆ948 with available outcomes met the composite clinical deterioration outcome. In internal–external cross-validation in the development cohort of 66β€ˆ705 participants, the selected model (comprising 11 predictors routinely measured at the point of hospital admission) showed consistent discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility across all eight NHS regions. In held-out data from London (n=8239), the model showed a similarly consistent performance (C-statistic 0·77 [95% CI 0·76 to 0·78]; calibration-in-the-large 0·00 [–0·05 to 0·05]); calibration slope 0·96 [0·91 to 1·01]), and greater net benefit than

Journal article

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