Publications
318 results found
Eales O, Page AJ, Tang SN, et al., 2023, The use of representative community samples to assess SARS-CoV-2 lineage competition: Alpha outcompetes Beta and wild-type in England from January to March 2021., Microbial Genomics, Vol: 9, Pages: 1-14, ISSN: 2057-5858
Genomic surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 lineages informs our understanding of possible future changes in transmissibility and vaccine efficacy and will be a high priority for public health for the foreseeable future. However, small changes in the frequency of one lineage over another are often difficult to interpret because surveillance samples are obtained using a variety of methods all of which are known to contain biases. As a case study, using an approach which is largely free of biases, we here describe lineage dynamics and phylogenetic relationships of the Alpha and Beta variant in England during the first 3 months of 2021 using sequences obtained from a random community sample who provided a throat and nose swab for rt-PCR as part of the REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) study. Overall, diversity decreased during the first quarter of 2021, with the Alpha variant (first identified in Kent) becoming predominant, driven by a reproduction number 0.3 higher than for the prior wild-type. During January, positive samples were more likely to be Alpha in those aged 18 to 54 years old. Although individuals infected with the Alpha variant were no more likely to report one or more classic COVID-19 symptoms compared to those infected with wild-type, they were more likely to be antibody-positive 6 weeks after infection. Further, viral load was higher in those infected with the Alpha variant as measured by cycle threshold (Ct) values. The presence of infections with non-imported Beta variant (first identified in South Africa) during January, but not during February or March, suggests initial establishment in the community followed by fade-out. However, this occurred during a period of stringent social distancing. These results highlight how sequence data from representative community surveys such as REACT-1 can augment routine genomic surveillance during periods of lineage diversity.
Swann O, Rasmussen A, Peacock T, et al., 2023, Avian Influenza A Virus polymerase can utilise human ANP32 proteins to support cRNA but not vRNA synthesis, mBio, Vol: 14, Pages: 1-14, ISSN: 2150-7511
Host restriction limits the emergence of novel pandemic strains from the influenza A virus avian reservoir. For efficient replication in mammalian cells, the avian influenza RNA-dependent RNA polymerase must adapt to use human orthologues of the host factor ANP32, which lack a 33-amino-acid insertion relative to avian ANP32A. Here, we find that influenza polymerase requires ANP32 proteins to support both steps of genome replication: cRNA and vRNA synthesis. However, avian strains are only restricted in vRNA synthesis in human cells. Therefore, avian influenza polymerase can use human ANP32 orthologues to support cRNA synthesis, without acquiring mammalian adaptations. This implies a fundamental difference in the mechanism by which ANP32 proteins support cRNA versus vRNA synthesis.IMPORTANCE To infect humans and cause a pandemic, avian influenza must first adapt to use human versions of the proteins the virus hijacks for replication, instead of the avian orthologues found in bird cells. One critical host protein is ANP32. Understanding the details of how host proteins such as ANP32 support viral activity may allow the design of new antiviral strategies that disrupt these interactions. Here, we use cells that lack ANP32 to unambiguously demonstrate ANP32 is needed for both steps of influenza genome replication. Unexpectedly, however, we found that avian influenza can use human ANP32 proteins for the first step of replication, to copy a complementary strand, without adaptation but can only utilize avian ANP32 for the second step of replication that generates new genomes. This suggests ANP32 may have a distinct role in supporting the second step of replication, and it is this activity that is specifically blocked when avian influenza infects human cells.
Otter JA, Zhou J, Price JR, et al., 2023, SARS-CoV-2 surface and air contamination in an acute healthcare setting during the first and second pandemic waves, Journal of Hospital Infection, Vol: 132, Pages: 36-45, ISSN: 0195-6701
BackgroundSurfaces and air in healthcare facilities can be contaminated with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2). Previously, the authors identified SARS-CoV-2 RNA on surfaces and air in their hospital during the first wave of the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic (April 2020).AimTo explore whether the profile of SARS-CoV-2 surface and air contamination had changed between April 2020 and January 2021.MethodsThis was a prospective, cross-sectional, observational study in a multi-site London hospital. In January 2021, surface and air samples were collected from comparable areas to those sampled in April 2020, comprising six clinical areas and a public area. SARS-CoV-2 was detected using reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction and viral culture. Sampling was also undertaken in two wards with natural ventilation alone. The ability of the prevalent variants at the time of the study to survive on dry surfaces was evaluated.FindingsNo viable virus was recovered from surfaces or air. Five percent (N=14) of 270 surface samples and 4% (N=1) of 27 air samples were positive for SARS-CoV-2, which was significantly lower than in April 2020 [52% (N=114) of 218 surface samples and 48% (N=13) of 27 air samples (P<0.001, Fisher's exact test)]. There was no clear difference in the proportion of surface and air samples positive for SARS-CoV-2 RNA based on the type of ventilation in the ward. All variants tested survived on dry surfaces for >72 h, with a <3-log10 reduction in viable count.ConclusionThis study suggests that enhanced infection prevention measures have reduced the burden of SARS-CoV-2 RNA on surfaces and air in healthcare facilities.
Liew F, Talwar S, Cross A, et al., 2023, SARS-CoV-2-specific nasal IgA wanes 9 months after hospitalisation with COVID-19 and is not induced by subsequent vaccination, EBioMedicine, Vol: 87, Pages: 1-14, ISSN: 2352-3964
Background:Most studies of immunity to SARS-CoV-2 focus on circulating antibody, giving limited insights into mucosal defences that prevent viral replication and onward transmission. We studied nasal and plasma antibody responses one year after hospitalisation for COVID-19, including a period when SARS-CoV-2 vaccination was introduced.Methods:In this follow up study, plasma and nasosorption samples were prospectively collected from 446 adults hospitalised for COVID-19 between February 2020 and March 2021 via the ISARIC4C and PHOSP-COVID consortia. IgA and IgG responses to NP and S of ancestral SARS-CoV-2, Delta and Omicron (BA.1) variants were measured by electrochemiluminescence and compared with plasma neutralisation data.Findings:Strong and consistent nasal anti-NP and anti-S IgA responses were demonstrated, which remained elevated for nine months (p < 0.0001). Nasal and plasma anti-S IgG remained elevated for at least 12 months (p < 0.0001) with plasma neutralising titres that were raised against all variants compared to controls (p < 0.0001). Of 323 with complete data, 307 were vaccinated between 6 and 12 months; coinciding with rises in nasal and plasma IgA and IgG anti-S titres for all SARS-CoV-2 variants, although the change in nasal IgA was minimal (1.46-fold change after 10 months, p = 0.011) and the median remained below the positive threshold determined by pre-pandemic controls. Samples 12 months after admission showed no association between nasal IgA and plasma IgG anti-S responses (R = 0.05, p = 0.18), indicating that nasal IgA responses are distinct from those in plasma and minimally boosted by vaccination.Interpretation:The decline in nasal IgA responses 9 months after infection and minimal impact of subsequent vaccination may explain the lack of long-lasting nasal defence against reinfection and the limited effects of vaccination on transmission. These findings highlight the need to develop vaccines that enhance nasal immunity.Funding:This
Tirupakuzhi Vijayaraghavan BK, Bishnu S, Baruch J, et al., 2023, Liver injury in hospitalized patients with COVID-19: An International observational cohort study., PLoS One, Vol: 18
BACKGROUND: Using a large dataset, we evaluated prevalence and severity of alterations in liver enzymes in COVID-19 and association with patient-centred outcomes. METHODS: We included hospitalized patients with confirmed or suspected SARS-CoV-2 infection from the International Severe Acute Respiratory and emerging Infection Consortium (ISARIC) database. Key exposure was baseline liver enzymes (AST, ALT, bilirubin). Patients were assigned Liver Injury Classification score based on 3 components of enzymes at admission: Normal; Stage I) Liver injury: any component between 1-3x upper limit of normal (ULN); Stage II) Severe liver injury: any component ≥3x ULN. Outcomes were hospital mortality, utilization of selected resources, complications, and durations of hospital and ICU stay. Analyses used logistic regression with associations expressed as adjusted odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS: Of 17,531 included patients, 46.2% (8099) and 8.2% (1430) of patients had stage 1 and 2 liver injury respectively. Compared to normal, stages 1 and 2 were associated with higher odds of mortality (OR 1.53 [1.37-1.71]; OR 2.50 [2.10-2.96]), ICU admission (OR 1.63 [1.48-1.79]; OR 1.90 [1.62-2.23]), and invasive mechanical ventilation (OR 1.43 [1.27-1.70]; OR 1.95 (1.55-2.45). Stages 1 and 2 were also associated with higher odds of developing sepsis (OR 1.38 [1.27-1.50]; OR 1.46 [1.25-1.70]), acute kidney injury (OR 1.13 [1.00-1.27]; OR 1.59 [1.32-1.91]), and acute respiratory distress syndrome (OR 1.38 [1.22-1.55]; OR 1.80 [1.49-2.17]). CONCLUSIONS: Liver enzyme abnormalities are common among COVID-19 patients and associated with worse outcomes.
Hill V, Plessis LD, Peacock TP, et al., 2022, The origins and molecular evolution of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in the UK (vol 8, veac080, 2022), Virus Evolution, Vol: 8, Pages: 1-1, ISSN: 2057-1577
Burnham KL, Maher AK, Jones EM, et al., 2022, Transcriptional reprogramming from innate immune functions to a pro-thrombotic signature by monocytes in COVID-19, Nature Communications, Vol: 13, Pages: 1-17, ISSN: 2041-1723
Although alterations in myeloid cells have been observed in COVID-19, the specific underlying mechanisms are not completely understood. Here, we examine the function of classical CD14+ monocytes in patients with mild and moderate COVID-19 during the acute phase of infection and in healthy individuals. Monocytes from COVID-19 patients display altered expression of cell surface receptors and a dysfunctional metabolic profile that distinguish them from healthy monocytes. Secondary pathogen sensing ex vivo leads to defects in pro-inflammatory cytokine and type-I IFN production in moderate COVID-19 cases, together with defects in glycolysis. COVID-19 monocytes switch their gene expression profile from canonical innate immune to pro-thrombotic signatures and are functionally pro-thrombotic, both at baseline and following ex vivo stimulation with SARS-CoV-2. Transcriptionally, COVID-19 monocytes are characterized by enrichment of pathways involved in hemostasis, immunothrombosis, platelet aggregation and other accessory pathways to platelet activation and clot formation. These results identify a potential mechanism by which monocyte dysfunction may contribute to COVID-19 pathology.
Eales O, Wang H, Haw D, et al., 2022, Trends in SARS-CoV-2 infection prevalence during England’s roadmap out of lockdown, January to July 2021, PLoS Computational Biology, Vol: 18, Pages: 1-16, ISSN: 1553-734X
Background:Following rapidly rising COVID-19 case numbers, England entered a national lockdown on 6 January 2021, with staged relaxations of restrictions from 8 March 2021 onwards.Aim:We characterise how the lockdown and subsequent easing of restrictions affected trends in SARS-CoV-2 infection prevalence.Methods:On average, risk of infection is proportional to infection prevalence. The REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) study is a repeat cross-sectional study of over 98,000 people every round (rounds approximately monthly) that estimates infection prevalence in England. We used Bayesian P-splines to estimate prevalence and the time-varying reproduction number (Rt) nationally, regionally and by age group from round 8 (beginning 6 January 2021) to round 13 (ending 12 July 2021) of REACT-1. As a comparator, a separate segmented-exponential model was used to quantify the impact on Rt of each relaxation of restrictions.Results:Following an initial plateau of 1.54% until mid-January, infection prevalence decreased until 13 May when it reached a minimum of 0.09%, before increasing until the end of the study to 0.76%. Following the first easing of restrictions, which included schools reopening, the reproduction number Rt increased by 82% (55%, 108%), but then decreased by 61% (82%, 53%) at the second easing of restrictions, which was timed to match the Easter school holidays. Following further relaxations of restrictions, the observed Rt increased steadily, though the increase due to these restrictions being relaxed was offset by the effects of vaccination and also affected by the rapid rise of Delta. There was a high degree of synchrony in the temporal patterns of prevalence between regions and age groups.Conclusion:High-resolution prevalence data fitted to P-splines allowed us to show that the lockdown was effective at reducing risk of infection with school holidays/closures playing a significant part.
Whitaker M, Elliott J, Bodinier B, et al., 2022, Variant-specific symptoms of COVID-19 in a study of 1,542,510 adults in England, Nature Communications, Vol: 13, Pages: 1-10, ISSN: 2041-1723
Infection with SARS-CoV-2 virus is associated with a wide range of symptoms. The REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission -1 (REACT-1) study monitored the spread and clinical manifestation of SARS-CoV-2 among random samples of the population in England from 1 May 2020 to 31 March 2022. We show changing symptom profiles associated with the different variants over that period, with lower reporting of loss of sense of smell or taste for Omicron compared to previous variants, and higher reporting of cold-like and influenza-like symptoms, controlling for vaccination status. Contrary to the perception that recent variants have become successively milder, Omicron BA.2 was associated with reporting more symptoms, with greater disruption to daily activities, than BA.1. With restrictions lifted and routine testing limited in many countries, monitoring the changing symptom profiles associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection and effects on daily activities will become increasingly important.
Vink E, Davis C, MacLean A, et al., 2022, Viral coinfections in hospitalized Coronavirus disease 2019 patients recruited to the international severe acute respiratory and emerging infections consortium WHO clinical characterisation protocol UK study, Open Forum Infectious Diseases, Vol: 9, Pages: 1-10, ISSN: 2328-8957
BackgroundWe conducted this study to assess the prevalence of viral coinfection in a well characterized cohort of hospitalized coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients and to investigate the impact of coinfection on disease severity.MethodsMultiplex real-time polymerase chain reaction testing for endemic respiratory viruses was performed on upper respiratory tract samples from 1002 patients with COVID-19, aged <1 year to 102 years old, recruited to the International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infections Consortium WHO Clinical Characterisation Protocol UK study. Comprehensive demographic, clinical, and outcome data were collected prospectively up to 28 days post discharge.ResultsA coinfecting virus was detected in 20 (2.0%) participants. Multivariable analysis revealed no significant risk factors for coinfection, although this may be due to rarity of coinfection. Likewise, ordinal logistic regression analysis did not demonstrate a significant association between coinfection and increased disease severity.ConclusionsViral coinfection was rare among hospitalized COVID-19 patients in the United Kingdom during the first 18 months of the pandemic. With unbiased prospective sampling, we found no evidence of an association between viral coinfection and disease severity. Public health interventions disrupted normal seasonal transmission of respiratory viruses; relaxation of these measures mean it will be important to monitor the prevalence and impact of respiratory viral coinfections going forward.
Cordery R, Reeves L, Zhou J, et al., 2022, Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 by children to contacts in schools and households: a prospective cohort and environmental sampling study in London, The Lancet Microbe, Vol: 3, Pages: e814-e823, ISSN: 2666-5247
Background: Assessing transmission of SARS-CoV-2 by children in schools is of critical importance to inform public health action. We assessed frequency of acquisition of SARS-CoV-2 by contacts of pupils with COVID-19 in schools and households, and quantified SARS-CoV-2 shed into air and onto fomites in both settings.Methods: Incidents involving exposure to at least one index pupil with COVID-19 in 8 schools were identified between October 2020-July 2021 (prevailing variants, original, alpha and delta). Weekly PCR testing for SARS-CoV-2 was undertaken on immediate classroom contacts (the “bubble”), non-bubble school contacts, and household contacts of index pupils, supported by genome sequencing, and on surface and air samples from school and home environments.Findings: Secondary transmission of SARS-CoV-2 was not detected in 28 bubble contacts, representing 10 bubble classes (participation rate 8.8%, IQR 4.6-15.3%). Across 8 non-bubble classes, 3/62 pupils tested positive but these were unrelated to the original index case (participation rate 22.5%, IQR 9.7-32.3%). All three were asymptomatic and tested positive in one setting on the same day. In contrast, secondary transmission to previously-negative household contacts from infected index pupils was 17.1% (6/35) rising to 27.7% (13/47) when considering all potentialinfections in household contacts. Environmental contamination with SARS-CoV-2 was rare in schools; fomite SARS-CoV-2 was identified in 4/189 (2.1%) samples in bubble classrooms, 2/127 (1.6%) samples in non-bubble classrooms, and 5/130 (3.8%) samples in washrooms. This contrasted with fomites in households, where SARS-CoV-2 was identified in 60/248 (24.2%) bedroom samples, 66/241 (27.4%) communal room samples, and 21/188 (11.2%) bathroom samples. Air sampling identified SARS-CoV-2 RNA in just 1/68 (1.5%) of school air samples, compared with 21/85 (24.7%) of air samples taken in homes.Interpretation: There was no evidence of large scale SARS-Co
Hakki S, Zhou J, Jonnerby J, et al., 2022, Onset and window of SARS-CoV-2 infectiousness and temporal correlation with symptom onset: a prospective, longitudinal, community cohort study, The Lancet Respiratory Medicine, Vol: 10, Pages: 1061-1073, ISSN: 2213-2600
BACKGROUND: Knowledge of the window of SARS-CoV-2 infectiousness is crucial in developing policies to curb transmission. Mathematical modelling based on scarce empirical evidence and key assumptions has driven isolation and testing policy, but real-world data are needed. We aimed to characterise infectiousness across the full course of infection in a real-world community setting. METHODS: The Assessment of Transmission and Contagiousness of COVID-19 in Contacts (ATACCC) study was a UK prospective, longitudinal, community cohort of contacts of newly diagnosed, PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 index cases. Household and non-household exposed contacts aged 5 years or older were eligible for recruitment if they could provide informed consent and agree to self-swabbing of the upper respiratory tract. The primary objective was to define the window of SARS-CoV-2 infectiousness and its temporal correlation with symptom onset. We quantified viral RNA load by RT-PCR and infectious viral shedding by enumerating cultivable virus daily across the course of infection. Participants completed a daily diary to track the emergence of symptoms. Outcomes were assessed with empirical data and a phenomenological Bayesian hierarchical model. FINDINGS: Between Sept 13, 2020, and March 31, 2021, we enrolled 393 contacts from 327 households (the SARS-CoV-2 pre-alpha and alpha variant waves); and between May 24, 2021, and Oct 28, 2021, we enrolled 345 contacts from 215 households (the delta variant wave). 173 of these 738 contacts were PCR positive for more than one timepoint, 57 of which were at the start of infection and comprised the final study population. The onset and end of infectious viral shedding were captured in 42 cases and the median duration of infectiousness was 5 (IQR 3-7) days. Although 24 (63%) of 38 cases had PCR-detectable virus before symptom onset, only seven (20%) of 35 shed infectious virus presymptomatically. Symptom onset was a median of 3 days before both peak viral RNA and
Mosscrop L, Watber P, Elliot P, et al., 2022, Evaluation of the impact of pre-analytical conditions on sample stability for the detection of SARS-CoV-2 RNA, Journal of Virological Methods, Vol: 309, Pages: 1-5, ISSN: 0166-0934
Demand for accurate SARS-CoV-2 diagnostics is high. Most samples in the UK are collected in the community and rely on the postal service for delivery to the laboratories. The current recommendation remains that swabs should be collected in Viral Transport Media (VTM) and transported with a cold chain to the laboratory for RNA extraction and RT-qPCR. This is not always possible. We aimed to test the stability of SARS-CoV-2 RNA subjected to different pre-analytical conditions. Swabs were dipped into PBS containing cultured SARS-CoV-2 and placed in either a dry tube or a tube containing either normal saline or VTM. The tubes were then stored at different temperatures (20–50 °C) for variable periods (8 h to 5 days). Samples were tested by RT-qPCR targeting SARS-CoV-2 E gene. VTM outperformed swabs in saline and dry swabs in all conditions. Samples in VTM were stable, independent of a cold chain, for 5 days, with a maximum increase in cycle threshold (Ct) of 1.34 when held at 40 °C. Using normal saline as the transport media resulted in a loss of sensitivity (increased Ct) over time and with increasing temperature (up to 7.8 cycles compared to VTM). SARS-CoV-2 was not detected in 3/9 samples in normal saline when tested after 120 h incubation. Transportation of samples in VTM provides a high level of confidence in the results despite the potential for considerable, uncontrolled variation in temperature and longer transportation periods. False negative results may be seen after 96 h in saline and viral loads will appear lower.
Ogger PP, Martín MG, Michalaki C, et al., 2022, Type I interferon signaling deficiency results in dysregulated innate immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 in mice, European Journal of Immunology, Vol: 52, Pages: 1768-1775, ISSN: 0014-2980
SARS-CoV-2 is a newly emerged coronavirus, causing the global pandemic of respiratory coronavirus disease (COVID-19). The type I interferon (IFN) pathway is of particular importance for anti-viral defence and recent studies identified that type I IFNs drive early inflammatory responses to SARS-CoV-2. Here, we use a mouse model of SARS-CoV-2 infection, facilitating viral entry by intranasal recombinant Adeno-Associated Virus (rAAV) transduction of hACE2 in wildtype (WT) and type I IFN-signalling-deficient (Ifnar1-/- ) mice, to study type I IFN signalling deficiency and innate immune responses during SARS-CoV-2 infection. Our data show that type I IFN signaling is essential for inducing anti-viral effector responses to SARS-CoV-2, control of virus replication and to prevent enhanced disease. Furthermore, hACE2-Ifnar1-/- mice had increased gene expression of the chemokine Cxcl1 and airway infiltration of neutrophils as well as a reduced and delayed production of monocyte-recruiting chemokine CCL2. hACE2-Ifnar1-/- mice showed altered recruitment of inflammatory myeloid cells to the lung upon SARS-CoV-2 infection, with a shift from Ly6C+ to Ly6C- expressing cells. Together, our findings suggest that type I IFN deficiency results in a dysregulated innate immune response to SARS-CoV-2 infection. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
Penn R, Tregoning J, Flight K, et al., 2022, Levels of Influenza defective viral genomes determine pathogenesis in the BALB/c mouse model, Journal of Virology, Vol: 96, Pages: 1-18, ISSN: 0022-538X
Defective viral genomes (DVGs), which are generated by the viral polymerase in error during RNA replication, can trigger innate immunity and are implicated in altering the clinical outcome of infection. Here, we investigated the impact of DVGs on innate immunity and pathogenicity in a BALB/c mouse model of influenza virus infection. We generated stocks of influenza viruses containing the internal genes of an H5N1 virus that contain different levels of DVGs (indicated by different genome to PFU ratios). In lung epithelial cells, the high DVG stock was immunostimulatory at early time points post infection. DVGs were amplified during virus replication in myeloid immune cells and triggered pro-inflammatory cytokine production. In the mouse model, infection with the different virus stocks produced divergent outcomes. The high DVG stock induced an early type I IFN resonse that limited viral replication in the lungs resulting in minimal weight loss. In contrast, the virus stock with low levels of DVGs replicated to hightitres and amplified DVGs over time resulting in elevated pro-inflammatory cytokines accompanied by rapid weight loss and increased morbidity and mortality. Our results suggest that the timing and levels of immunostimulatory DVGs generated duringinfection contribute to H5N1 pathogenesis.
Eales O, Haw D, Wang H, et al., 2022, Quantifying changes in the IFR and IHR over 23 months of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in England
<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:sec><jats:title>Background</jats:title><jats:p>The relationship between prevalence of infection and severe outcomes such as hospitalisation and death changed over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic. The REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) study estimated swab positivity in England approximately monthly from May 2020 to 31 March 2022. This period covers widespread circulation of the original strain, the emergence of the Alpha, Delta and Omicron variants and the rollout of England’s mass vaccination campaign.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods</jats:title><jats:p>Here, we explore this changing relationship between prevalence of swab positivity and the infection fatality rate (IFR) and infection hospitalisation rate (IHR) over 23 months of the pandemic in England, using publicly available data for the daily number of deaths and hospitalisations, REACT-1 swab positivity data, time-delay models and Bayesian P-spline models. We analyse data for all age groups together, as well as in two sub-groups: those aged 65 and over and those aged 64 and under.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results</jats:title><jats:p>During 2020, we estimated the IFR to be 0.67% and the IHR to be 2.6%. By late-2021/early-2022 the IFR and IHR had both decreased to 0.097% and 0.76% respectively. Continuous estimates of the IFR and IHR of the virus were observed to increase during the periods of Alpha and Delta’s emergence. During periods of vaccination rollout, and the emergence of the Omicron variant, the IFR and IHR of the virus decreased. During 2020, we estimated a time-lag of 19 days between hospitalisation and swab positivity, and 26 days between deaths and swab positivity. By late-2021/early-2022 these time-lags had decreased to 7 days for hospitalisations, and 18 days for deaths.</jats:
McCrone JT, Hill V, Bajaj S, et al., 2022, Context-specific emergence and growth of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant, NATURE, Vol: 610, Pages: 154-+, ISSN: 0028-0836
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Chadeau-Hyam M, Tang D, Eales O, et al., 2022, Omicron SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in England during February 2022: A series of cross-sectional community surveys, The Lancet Regional Health Europe, Vol: 21, Pages: 1-11, ISSN: 2666-7762
BackgroundThe Omicron wave of COVID-19 in England peaked in January 2022 resulting from the rapid transmission of the Omicron BA.1 variant. We investigate the spread and dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in the population of England during February 2022, by region, age and main SARS-CoV-2 sub-lineage.MethodsIn the REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) study we obtained data from a random sample of 94,950 participants with valid throat and nose swab results by RT-PCR during round 18 (8 February to 1 March 2022).FindingsWe estimated a weighted mean SARS-CoV-2 prevalence of 2.88% (95% credible interval [CrI] 2.76–3.00), with a within-round effective reproduction number (R) overall of 0.94 (0·91–0.96). While within-round weighted prevalence fell among children (aged 5 to 17 years) and adults aged 18 to 54 years, we observed a level or increasing weighted prevalence among those aged 55 years and older with an R of 1.04 (1.00–1.09). Among 1,616 positive samples with sublineages determined, one (0.1% [0.0–0.3]) corresponded to XE BA.1/BA.2 recombinant and the remainder were Omicron: N=1047, 64.8% (62.4–67.2) were BA.1; N=568, 35.2% (32.8–37.6) were BA.2. We estimated an R additive advantage for BA.2 (vs BA.1) of 0.38 (0.34–0.41). The highest proportion of BA.2 among positives was found in London.InterpretationIn February 2022, infection prevalence in England remained high with level or increasing rates of infection in older people and an uptick in hospitalisations. Ongoing surveillance of both survey and hospitalisations data is required.FundingDepartment of Health and Social Care, England.
Najer A, Blight J, Ducker CB, et al., 2022, Potent virustatic polymer-lipid nanomimics block viral entry and inhibit malaria parasites in vivo, ACS Central Science, Vol: 8, Pages: 1238-1257, ISSN: 2374-7943
Infectious diseases continue to pose a substantial burden on global populations, requiring innovative broad-spectrum prophylactic and treatment alternatives. Here, we have designed modular synthetic polymer nanoparticles that mimic functional components of host cell membranes, yielding multivalent nanomimics that act by directly binding to varied pathogens. Nanomimic blood circulation time was prolonged by reformulating polymer–lipid hybrids. Femtomolar concentrations of the polymer nanomimics were sufficient to inhibit herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) entry into epithelial cells, while higher doses were needed against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Given their observed virustatic mode of action, the nanomimics were also tested with malaria parasite blood-stage merozoites, which lose their invasive capacity after a few minutes. Efficient inhibition of merozoite invasion of red blood cells was demonstrated both in vitro and in vivo using a preclinical rodent malaria model. We envision these nanomimics forming an adaptable platform for developing pathogen entry inhibitors and as immunomodulators, wherein nanomimic-inhibited pathogens can be secondarily targeted to sites of immune recognition.
Hill V, Du Plessis L, Peacock TP, et al., 2022, The origins and molecular evolution of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in the UK, VIRUS EVOLUTION, Vol: 8
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- Citations: 30
Eales O, Ainslie KEC, Walters CE, et al., 2022, Appropriately smoothing prevalence data to inform estimates of growth rate and reproduction number, Epidemics: the journal of infectious disease dynamics, Vol: 40, ISSN: 1755-4365
The time-varying reproduction number () can change rapidly over the course of a pandemic due to changing restrictions, behaviours, and levels of population immunity. Many methods exist that allow the estimation of from case data. However, these are not easily adapted to point prevalence data nor can they infer across periods of missing data. We developed a Bayesian P-spline model suitable for fitting to a wide range of epidemic time-series, including point-prevalence data. We demonstrate the utility of the model by fitting to periodic daily SARS-CoV-2 swab-positivity data in England from the first 7 rounds (May 2020–December 2020) of the REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) study. Estimates of over the period of two subsequent rounds (6–8 weeks) and single rounds (2–3 weeks) inferred using the Bayesian P-spline model were broadly consistent with estimates from a simple exponential model, with overlapping credible intervals. However, there were sometimes substantial differences in point estimates. The Bayesian P-spline model was further able to infer changes in over shorter periods tracking a temporary increase above one during late-May 2020, a gradual increase in over the summer of 2020 as restrictions were eased, and a reduction in during England’s second national lockdown followed by an increase as the Alpha variant surged. The model is robust against both under-fitting and over-fitting and is able to interpolate between periods of available data; it is a particularly versatile model when growth rate can change over small timescales, as in the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. This work highlights the importance of pairing robust methods with representative samples to track pandemics.
Belser JA, Lau EHY, Barclay W, et al., 2022, Robustness of the Ferret Model for Influenza Risk Assessment Studies: a Cross-Laboratory Exercise, MBIO, Vol: 13, ISSN: 2150-7511
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- Citations: 7
Elliott P, Eales O, Bodinier B, et al., 2022, Dynamics of a national Omicron SARS-CoV-2 epidemic during January 2022 in England, Nature Communications, Vol: 13, ISSN: 2041-1723
Rapid transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant has led to record-breaking case incidence rates around the world. Since May 2020, the REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) study tracked the spread of SARS-CoV-2 infection in England through RT-PCR of self-administered throat and nose swabs from randomly-selected participants aged 5 years and over. In January 2022, we found an overall weighted prevalence of 4.41% (n=102,174), three-fold higher than in November to December 2021; we sequenced 2,374 (99.2%) Omicron infections (19 BA.2), and only 19 (0.79%) Delta, with a growth rate advantage for BA.2 compared to BA.1 or BA.1.1. Prevalence was decreasing overall (reproduction number R=0.95, 95% credible interval [CrI], 0.93, 0.97), but increasing in children aged 5 to 17 years (R=1.13, 95% CrI, 1.09, 1.18). In England during January 2022, we observed unprecedented levels of SARS-CoV-2 infection, especially among children, driven by almost complete replacement of Delta by Omicron.
Newman J, Thakur N, Peacock TP, et al., 2022, Neutralizing antibody activity against 21 SARS-CoV-2 variants in older adults vaccinated with BNT162b2, NATURE MICROBIOLOGY, Vol: 7, Pages: 1180-+, ISSN: 2058-5276
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- Citations: 19
Eales O, Martins LDO, Page AJ, et al., 2022, Dynamics of competing SARS-CoV-2 variants during the Omicron epidemic in England, Nature Communications, Vol: 13, ISSN: 2041-1723
The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has been characterised by the regular emergence of genomic variants. With natural and vaccine-induced population immunity at high levels, evolutionary pressure favours variants better able to evade SARS-CoV-2 neutralising antibodies. The Omicron variant (first detected in November 2021) exhibited a high degree of immune evasion, leading to increased infection rates worldwide. However, estimates of the magnitude of this Omicron wave have often relied on routine testing data, which are prone to several biases. Using data from the REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) study, a series of cross-sectional surveys assessing prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in England, we estimated the dynamics of England’s Omicron wave (from 9 September 2021 to 1 March 2022). We estimate an initial peak in national Omicron prevalence of 6.89% (5.34%, 10.61%) during January 2022, followed by a resurgence in SARS-CoV-2 infections as the more transmissible Omicron sub-lineage, BA.2 replaced BA.1 and BA.1.1. Assuming the emergence of further distinct variants, intermittent epidemics of similar magnitudes may become the ‘new normal’.
Eales O, Wang H, Bodinier B, et al., 2022, SARS-CoV-2 lineage dynamics in England from September to November 2021: high diversity of Delta sub-lineages and increased transmissibility of AY.4.2, BMC Infectious Diseases, Vol: 22, ISSN: 1471-2334
Background: Since the emergence of SARS-CoV-2, evolutionary pressure has driven large increases in the transmissibility of the virus. However, with increasing levels of immunity through vaccination and natural infection the evolutionary pressure will switch towards immune escape. Genomic surveillance in regions of high immunity is crucial in detecting emerging variants that can more successfully navigate the immune landscape. Methods: We present phylogenetic relationships and lineage dynamics within England (a country with high levels of immunity), as inferred from a random community sample of individuals who provided a self-administered throat and nose swab for rt-PCR testing as part of the REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) study. During round 14 (9 September - 27 September 2021) and 15 (19 October - 5 November 2021) lineages were determined for 1322 positive individuals, with 27.1% of those which reported their symptom status reporting no symptoms in the previous month.Results: We identified 44 unique lineages, all of which were Delta or Delta sub-lineages, and found a reduction in their mutation rate over the study period. The proportion of the Delta sub-lineage AY.4.2 was increasing, with a reproduction number 15% (95% CI, 8%-23%) greater than the most prevalent lineage, AY.4. Further, AY.4.2 was less associated with the most predictive COVID-19 symptoms (p = 0.029) and had a reduced mutation rate (p = 0.050). Both AY.4.2 and AY.4 were found to be geographically clustered in September but this was no longer the case by late October/early November, with only the lineage AY.6 exhibiting clustering towards the South of England.Conclusions: As SARS-CoV-2 moves towards endemicity and new variants emerge, genomic data obtained from random community samples can augment routine surveillance data without the potential biases introduced due to higher sampling rates of symptomatic individuals.
Peacock T, Goldhill D, Zhou J, et al., 2022, The furin cleavage site of SARS-CoV-2 spike protein is a key determinant for transmission due to enhanced replication in airway cells, Publisher: bioXriv
SARS-CoV-2 enters cells via its spike glycoprotein which must be cleaved sequentially at the S1/S2, then the S2’ cleavage sites (CS) to mediate membrane fusion. SARS-CoV-2 has a unique polybasic insertion at the S1/S2 CS, which we demonstrate can be cleaved by furin. Using lentiviral pseudotypes and a cell-culture adapted SARS-CoV-2 virus with a S1/S2 deletion, we show that the polybasic insertion is selected for in lung cells and primary human airway epithelial cultures but selected against in Vero E6, a cell line used for passaging SARS-CoV-2. We find this selective advantage depends on expression of the cell surface protease, TMPRSS2, that allows virus entry independent of endosomes thus avoiding antiviral IFITM proteins. SARS-CoV-2 virus lacking the S1/S2 furin CS was shed to lower titres from infected ferrets and was not transmitted to cohoused sentinel animals. Thus, the polybasic CS is a key determinant for efficient SARS-CoV-2 transmission.
Stolting H, Baillon L, Frise R, et al., 2022, Distinct airway epithelial immune responses after infection with SARS-CoV-2 compared to H1N1, Mucosal Immunology, Vol: 15, Pages: 952-963, ISSN: 1933-0219
Children are less likely than adults to suffer severe symptoms when infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), while influenza A H1N1 severity is comparable across ages except for the very young or elderly. Airway epithelial cells play a vital role in the early defence against viruses via their barrier and immune functions. We investigated viral replication and immune responses in SARS-CoV-2-infected bronchial epithelial cells from healthy paediatric (n = 6; 2.5–5.6 years old) and adult (n = 4; 47–63 years old) subjects and compared cellular responses following infection with SARS-CoV-2 or Influenza A H1N1. While infection with either virus triggered robust transcriptional interferon responses, including induction of type I (IFNB1) and type III (IFNL1) interferons, markedly lower levels of interferons and inflammatory proteins (IL-6, IL-8) were released following SARS-CoV-2 compared to H1N1 infection. Only H1N1 infection caused disruption of the epithelial layer. Interestingly, H1N1 infection resulted in sustained upregulation of SARS-CoV-2 entry factors FURIN and NRP1. We did not find any differences in the epithelial response to SARS-CoV-2 infection between paediatric and adult cells. Overall, SARS-CoV-2 had diminished potential to replicate, affect morphology and evoke immune responses in bronchial epithelial cells compared to H1N1.
Wong N, Meshkinfamfard S, Turbé V, et al., 2022, Machine learning to support visual auditing of home-based lateral flow immunoassay self-test results for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, Communications Medicine, Vol: 2, ISSN: 2730-664X
Lateral flow immunoassays (LFIAs) are being used worldwide for COVID-19 mass testing and antibody prevalence studies. Relatively simple to use and low cost, these tests can be self-administered at home but rely on subjective interpretation of a test line by eye, risking false positives and negatives. Here we report the development of ALFA (Automated Lateral Flow Analysis) to improve reported sensitivity and specificity. Our computational pipeline uses machine learning, computer vision techniques and signal processing algorithms to analyse images of the Fortress LFIA SARS-CoV-2 antibody self-test, and subsequently classify results as invalid, IgG negative and IgG positive. A large image library of 595,339 participant-submitted test photographs was created as part of the REACT-2 community SARS-CoV-2 antibody prevalence study in England, UK. Automated analysis showed substantial agreement with human experts (Kappa 0.90-0.97) and performed consistently better than study participants, particularly for weak positive IgG results. Specificity (98.7-99.4%) and sensitivity (90.1-97.1%) were high compared with visual interpretation by human experts (ranges due to the varying prevalence of weak positive IgG tests in datasets). Alongside ALFA, we developed an analysis toolkit which could also detect device blood leakage issues. Given the potential for LFIAs to be used at scale in the COVID-19 response (for both antibody and antigen testing), even a small improvement in the accuracy of the algorithms could impact the lives of millions of people by reducing the risk of false positive and false negative result read-outs by members of the public. Our findings support the use of machine learning-enabled automated reading of at-home antibody lateral flow tests, to be a tool for improved accuracy for population-level community surveillance.
Swann OC, Rasmussen AB, Peacock TP, et al., 2022, Avian Influenza A Virus polymerase can utilise human ANP32 proteins to support cRNA but not vRNA synthesis
<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>Host restriction limits the emergence of novel pandemic strains from the Influenza A Virus avian reservoir. For efficient replication in mammalian cells, the avian influenza RNA-dependent RNA polymerase must adapt to use human orthologues of the host factor ANP32, which lack a 33 amino acid insertion relative to avian ANP32A. Here we find that influenza polymerase requires ANP32 proteins to support both steps of replication: cRNA and vRNA synthesis. Nevertheless, avian strains are only restricted in vRNA synthesis in human cells. Therefore, avian polymerase can use human ANP32 orthologues to support cRNA synthesis, without acquiring mammalian adaptations. This implies a fundamental difference in the mechanism by which ANP32 proteins support cRNA vs vRNA synthesis.</jats:p><jats:sec><jats:title>Importance</jats:title><jats:p>In order to infect humans and cause a pandemic, avian influenza must first learn how to use human versions of the proteins the virus hijacks for replication – instead of the avian versions found in bird cells. One such protein is ANP32. Understanding the details of how host proteins such as ANP32 support viral activity may allow the design of new antiviral treatments that disrupt these interactions. In this work, we use cells that lack ANP32 to unambiguously demonstrate ANP32 is needed for both steps of influenza genome replication. Surprisingly however, we find that avian influenza can use human ANP32 proteins for the first step of replication without any adaptation, but only avian ANP32 for the second step of replication. This suggests ANP32 may have an additional role in supporting the second step of replication, and it is this activity that is specifically blocked when avian influenza infects human cells.</jats:p></jats:sec>
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