Imperial College London
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ProfessorWendyBarclay

Faculty of Medicine, Department of Infectious Disease

Action Medical Research Chair Virology. Head of Department
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 5035w.barclay

 
 
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Location

 

416Medical SchoolSt Mary's Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@unpublished{Riley:2021,
author = {Riley, S and Eales, O and Haw, D and Wang, H and Walters, C and Ainslie, K and Christina, A and Fronterre, C and Diggle, P and Ashby, D and Donnelly, C and Barclay, W and Cooke, G and Ward, H and Darzi, A and Elliott, P},
title = {REACT-1 round 13 interim report: acceleration of SARS-CoV-2 Delta epidemic in the community in England during late June and early July 2021},
url = {http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/90197},
year = {2021}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - UNPB
AB  - BackgroundDespite high levels of vaccination in the adult population, cases of COVID-19 have risenexponentially in England since the start of May 2021 driven by the Delta variant. However,with far fewer hospitalisations and deaths per case during the recent growth in casescompared with 2020, it is intended that all remaining social distancing legislation in Englandwill be removed from 19 July 2021.MethodsWe report interim results from round 13 of the REal-time Assessment of CommunityTransmission-1 (REACT-1) study in which a cross-sectional sample of the population ofEngland was asked to provide a throat and nose swab for RT-PCR and to answer aquestionnaire. Data collection for this report (round 13 interim) was from 24 June to 5 July2021.ResultsIn round 13 interim, we found 237 positives from 47,729 swabs giving a weighted prevalenceof 0.59% (0.51%, 0.68%) which was approximately four-fold higher compared with round 12at 0.15% (0.12%, 0.18%). This resulted from continued exponential growth in prevalencewith an average doubling time of 15 (13, 17) days between round 12 and round 13.However, during the recent period of round 13 interim only, we observed a shorter doublingtime of 6.1 (4.0, 12) days with a corresponding R number of 1.87 (1.40, 2.45). There weresubstantial increases in all age groups under the age of 75 years, and especially at youngerages, with the highest prevalence in 13 to 17 year olds at 1.33% (0.97%, 1.82%) and in 18 to24 years olds at 1.40% (0.89%, 2.18%). Infections have increased in all regions with thelargest increase in London where prevalence increased more than eight-fold from 0.13%(0.08%, 0.20%) in round 12 to 1.08% (0.79%, 1.47%) in round 13 interim. Overall,prevalence was over 3 times higher in the unvaccinated compared with those reporting twodoses of vaccine in both round 12 and round 13 interim, although there was a similarproportional increase in prevalence in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals between thetwo rounds.DiscussionWe
AU  - Riley,S
AU  - Eales,O
AU  - Haw,D
AU  - Wang,H
AU  - Walters,C
AU  - Ainslie,K
AU  - Christina,A
AU  - Fronterre,C
AU  - Diggle,P
AU  - Ashby,D
AU  - Donnelly,C
AU  - Barclay,W
AU  - Cooke,G
AU  - Ward,H
AU  - Darzi,A
AU  - Elliott,P
PY  - 2021///
TI  - REACT-1 round 13 interim report: acceleration of SARS-CoV-2 Delta epidemic in the community in England during late June and early July 2021
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/90197
ER  -
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