Imperial College London
Alternate

DR WES HINSLEY

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

GIS/Database/HPTC Analyst Tech Support
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 3269w.hinsley

 
 
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Location

 

G31Norfolk PlaceSt Mary's Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Charnley:2021:10.1186/s12879-021-06856-4,
author = {Charnley, GEC and Kelman, I and Green, N and Hinsley, W and Gaythorpe, KAM and Murray, KA},
doi = {10.1186/s12879-021-06856-4},
journal = {BMC Infectious Diseases},
title = {Exploring relationships between drought and epidemic cholera in Africa using generalised linear models},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12879-021-06856-4},
volume = {21},
year = {2021}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - BackgroundTemperature and precipitation are known to affect Vibrio cholerae outbreaks. Despite this, the impact of drought on outbreaks has been largely understudied. Africa is both drought and cholera prone and more research is needed in Africa to understand cholera dynamics in relation to drought.MethodsHere, we analyse a range of environmental and socioeconomic covariates and fit generalised linear models to publicly available national data, to test for associations with several indices of drought and make cholera outbreak projections to 2070 under three scenarios of global change, reflecting varying trajectories of CO2 emissions, socio-economic development, and population growth.ResultsThe best-fit model implies that drought is a significant risk factor for African cholera outbreaks, alongside positive effects of population, temperature and poverty and a negative effect of freshwater withdrawal. The projections show that following stringent emissions pathways and expanding sustainable development may reduce cholera outbreak occurrence in Africa, although these changes were spatially heterogeneous.ConclusionsDespite an effect of drought in explaining recent cholera outbreaks, future projections highlighted the potential for sustainable development gains to offset drought-related impacts on cholera risk. Future work should build on this research investigating the impacts of drought on cholera on a finer spatial scale and potential non-linear relationships, especially in high-burden countries which saw little cholera change in the scenario analysis.
AU  - Charnley,GEC
AU  - Kelman,I
AU  - Green,N
AU  - Hinsley,W
AU  - Gaythorpe,KAM
AU  - Murray,KA
DO  - 10.1186/s12879-021-06856-4
PY  - 2021///
TI  - Exploring relationships between drought and epidemic cholera in Africa using generalised linear models
T2  - BMC Infectious Diseases
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12879-021-06856-4
UR  - https://bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12879-021-06856-4
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/92687
VL  - 21
ER  -
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