Imperial College London
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Dr Zulma M Cucunubá

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Honorary Lecturer
 
 
 
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Contact

 

zulma.cucunuba

 
 
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Location

 

G27Medical SchoolSt Mary's Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Charniga:2020:10.1101/2020.09.11.20189811,
author = {Charniga, K and Cucunubá, Z and Mercado, M and Prieto, F and Ospina, M and Nouvellet, P and Donnelly, C},
doi = {10.1101/2020.09.11.20189811},
journal = {PLoS Computational Biology},
title = {Spatial and temporal invasion dynamics of the 2014-2017 Zika and chikungunya epidemics in Colombia},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2020.09.11.20189811},
year = {2020}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - Zika virus (ZIKV) and chikungunya virus (CHIKV) were recently introduced into the Americas resulting in significant disease burdens. Understanding their spatial and temporal dynamics at the subnational level is key to informing surveillance and preparedness for future epidemics. We analyzed anonymized line list data on approximately 105,000 Zika virus disease and 412,000 chikungunya fever suspected and laboratory-confirmed cases during the 2014-2017 epidemics. We first determined the week of invasion in each city. Out of 1,122, 288 cities met criteria for epidemic invasion by ZIKA and 338 cities by CHIKV. We estimated that the geographic origin of both epidemics was located in Barranquilla, north Colombia. Using gravity models, we assessed the spatial and temporal invasion dynamics of both viruses to analyze transmission between cities. Invasion risk was best captured when accounting for geographic distance and intermediate levels of density dependence. Although a few long-distance invasion events occurred at the beginning of the epidemics, an estimated distance power of 1.7 (95% CrI: 1.5-2.0) suggests that spatial spread was primarily driven by short-distance transmission. Cities with large populations were more likely to spread disease than cities with smaller populations. Similarities between the epidemics included having the same estimated geographic origin and having the same five parameters estimated in the best-fitting models. ZIKV spread considerably faster than CHIKV. <h4>Author summary</h4> Understanding the spread of infectious diseases across space and time is critical for preparedness, designing interventions, and elucidating mechanisms underlying transmission. We analyzed human case data from over 500,000 reported cases to investigate the spread of the recent Zika virus (ZIKV) and chikungunya virus (CHIKV) epidemics in Colombia. Both viruses were introduced into northern Colombia. We found that intermediate levels of density dependence best
AU  - Charniga,K
AU  - Cucunubá,Z
AU  - Mercado,M
AU  - Prieto,F
AU  - Ospina,M
AU  - Nouvellet,P
AU  - Donnelly,C
DO  - 10.1101/2020.09.11.20189811
PY  - 2020///
SN  - 1553-734X
TI  - Spatial and temporal invasion dynamics of the 2014-2017 Zika and chikungunya epidemics in Colombia
T2  - PLoS Computational Biology
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2020.09.11.20189811
ER  -
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