Imperial College London
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Dr Zulma M Cucunubá

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Honorary Lecturer
 
 
 
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Contact

 

zulma.cucunuba

 
 
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Location

 

G27Medical SchoolSt Mary's Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Whittaker:2022:cid/ciab837,
author = {Whittaker, C and Watson, O and Alvarez-Moreno, C and Angkasekwinai, N and Boonyasiri, A and Triana, LC and Chanda, D and Charoenpong, L and Chayakulkeeree, M and Cooke, G and Croda, J and Cucunubá, ZM and Djaafara, A and Estofolete, CF and Grillet, M-E and Faria, N and Costa, SF and Forero-Peña, DA and Gibb, DM and Gordon, A and Hamers, RL and Hamlet, A and Irawany, V and Jitmuang, A and Keurueangkul, N and Kimani, TN and Lampo, M and Levin, A and Lopardo, G and Mustafa, R and Nayagam, AS and Ngamprasertchai, T and Njeri, NIH and Nogueira, ML and Ortiz-Prado, E and Perroud, Jr MW and Phillips, AN and Promsin, P and Qavi, A and Rodger, AJ and Sabino, EC and Sangkaew, S and Sari, D and Sirijatuphat, R and Sposito, AC and Srisangthong, P and Thompson, H and Udwadia, Z and Valderrama-Beltrán, S and Winskill, P and Ghani, A and Walker, P and Hallett, T},
doi = {cid/ciab837},
journal = {Clinical Infectious Diseases},
pages = {e224--e233},
title = {Understanding the Potential Impact of Different Drug Properties On SARS-CoV-2 Transmission and Disease Burden: A Modelling Analysis},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciab837},
volume = {75},
year = {2022}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - BackgroundThe public health impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has motivated a rapid search for potential therapeutics, with some key successes. However, the potential impact of different treatments, and consequently research and procurement priorities, have not been clear.MethodsUsing a mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, COVID-19 disease and clinical care, we explore the public-health impact of different potential therapeutics, under a range of scenarios varying healthcare capacity, epidemic trajectories; and drug efficacy in the absence of supportive care.ResultsThe impact of drugs like dexamethasone (delivered to the most critically-ill in hospital and whose therapeutic benefit is expected to depend on the availability of supportive care such as oxygen and mechanical ventilation) is likely to be limited in settings where healthcare capacity is lowest or where uncontrolled epidemics result in hospitals being overwhelmed. As such, it may avert 22% of deaths in high-income countries but only 8% in low-income countries (assuming R=1.35). Therapeutics for different patient populations (those not in hospital, early in the course of infection) and types of benefit (reducing disease severity or infectiousness, preventing hospitalisation) could have much greater benefits, particularly in resource-poor settings facing large epidemics.ConclusionsAdvances in the treatment of COVID-19 to date have been focussed on hospitalised-patients and predicated on an assumption of adequate access to supportive care. Therapeutics delivered earlier in the course of infection that reduce the need for healthcare or reduce infectiousness could have significant impact, and research into their efficacy and means of delivery should be a priority.
AU  - Whittaker,C
AU  - Watson,O
AU  - Alvarez-Moreno,C
AU  - Angkasekwinai,N
AU  - Boonyasiri,A
AU  - Triana,LC
AU  - Chanda,D
AU  - Charoenpong,L
AU  - Chayakulkeeree,M
AU  - Cooke,G
AU  - Croda,J
AU  - Cucunubá,ZM
AU  - Djaafara,A
AU  - Estofolete,CF
AU  - Grillet,M-E
AU  - Faria,N
AU  - Costa,SF
AU  - Forero-Peña,DA
AU  - Gibb,DM
AU  - Gordon,A
AU  - Hamers,RL
AU  - Hamlet,A
AU  - Irawany,V
AU  - Jitmuang,A
AU  - Keurueangkul,N
AU  - Kimani,TN
AU  - Lampo,M
AU  - Levin,A
AU  - Lopardo,G
AU  - Mustafa,R
AU  - Nayagam,AS
AU  - Ngamprasertchai,T
AU  - Njeri,NIH
AU  - Nogueira,ML
AU  - Ortiz-Prado,E
AU  - Perroud,Jr MW
AU  - Phillips,AN
AU  - Promsin,P
AU  - Qavi,A
AU  - Rodger,AJ
AU  - Sabino,EC
AU  - Sangkaew,S
AU  - Sari,D
AU  - Sirijatuphat,R
AU  - Sposito,AC
AU  - Srisangthong,P
AU  - Thompson,H
AU  - Udwadia,Z
AU  - Valderrama-Beltrán,S
AU  - Winskill,P
AU  - Ghani,A
AU  - Walker,P
AU  - Hallett,T
DO  - cid/ciab837
EP  - 233
PY  - 2022///
SN  - 1058-4838
SP  - 224
TI  - Understanding the Potential Impact of Different Drug Properties On SARS-CoV-2 Transmission and Disease Burden: A Modelling Analysis
T2  - Clinical Infectious Diseases
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciab837
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/91886
VL  - 75
ER  -
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