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  • Journal article
    Shen Y, Sweeney L, Liu M, Lopez-Saez JA, Perez-Diaz S, Luelmo-Lautenschlaeger R, Gil-Ramera E, Hoefer D, Jimenez-Moreno G, Schneider H, Prentice IC, Harrison SPet al., 2022,

    Reconstructing burnt area during the Holocene: an Iberian case study

    , Climate of the Past, Vol: 18, Pages: 1189-1201, ISSN: 1814-9324

    Charcoal accumulated in lake, bog or other anoxic sediments through time has been used to document the geographical patterns in changes in fire regimes. Such reconstructions are useful to explore the impact of climate and vegetation changes on fire during periods when human influence was less prevalent than today. However, charcoal records only provide semi-quantitative estimates of change in biomass burning. Here we derive quantitative estimates of burnt area from vegetation data in two stages. First, we relate the modern charcoal abundance to burnt area using a conversion factor derived from a generalised linear model of burnt area probability based on eight environmental predictors. Then, we establish the relationship between fossil pollen assemblages and burnt area using tolerance-weighted weighted averaging partial least-squares regression with a sampling frequency correction (fxTWA-PLS). We test this approach using the Iberian Peninsula as a case study because it is a fire-prone region with abundant pollen and charcoal records covering the Holocene. We derive the vegetation–burnt area relationship using the 31 records that have both modern and fossil charcoal and pollen data and then reconstruct palaeoburnt area for the 113 records with Holocene pollen records. The pollen data predict charcoal-derived burnt area relatively well (R2 = 0.44), and the changes in reconstructed burnt area are synchronous with known climate changes through the Holocene. This new method opens up the possibility of reconstructing changes in fire regimes quantitatively from pollen records, after regional calibration of the vegetation–burnt area relationship, in regions where pollen records are more abundant than charcoal records.

  • Journal article
    Bennett S, Girndt A, Sanchez-Tojar A, Burke T, Simons M, Schroeder Jet al., 2022,

    Evidence of Paternal Effects on Telomere Length Increases in Early Life

    , FRONTIERS IN GENETICS, Vol: 13
  • Journal article
    Haas O, Prentice IC, Harrison SP, 2022,

    Global environmental controls of wildfire burnt area, size and intensity.

    , Environmental Research Letters, Vol: 17, Pages: 1-12, ISSN: 1748-9326

    Fire is an important influence on the global patterns of vegetation structure and composition. Wildfire is included as a distinct process in many dynamic global vegetation models but limited current understanding of fire regimes restricts these models' ability to reproduce more than the broadest geographic patterns. Here we present a statistical analysis of the global controls of remotely sensed burnt area (BA), fire size (FS), and a derived metric related to fire intensity (FI). Separate generalized linear models were fitted to observed monthly fractional BA from the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFEDv4), median FS from the Global Fire Atlas, and median fire radiative power from the MCD14ML dataset normalized by the square root of median FS. The three models were initially constructed from a common set of 16 predictors; only the strongest predictors for each model were retained in the final models. It is shown that BA is primarily driven by fuel availability and dryness; FS by conditions promoting fire spread; and FI by fractional tree cover and road density. Both BA and FS are constrained by landscape fragmentation, whereas FI is constrained by fuel moisture. Ignition sources (lightning and human population) were positively related to BA (after accounting for road density), but negatively to FI. These findings imply that the different controls on BA, FS and FI need to be considered in process-based models. They highlight the need to include measures of landscape fragmentation as well as fuel load and dryness, and to pay close attention to the controls of fire spread.

  • Journal article
    MUMFORD JD, QUINLAN MM, 2022,

    Introduction

    , Revue Scientifique et Technique de l'OIE, Vol: 41, Pages: 15-28, ISSN: 0253-1933
  • Journal article
    OLIVA CF, CHAND R, PRUDHOMME J, MESSORI S, TORRES G, MUMFORD JD, DEME I, QUINLAN MMet al., 2022,

    International live insect trade: a survey of stakeholders

    , Revue Scientifique et Technique de l'OIE, Vol: 41, Pages: 29-65, ISSN: 0253-1933

    There are significant numbers of transboundary shipments of live insects for pollination, pest management, industrialprocesses, research and other uses, but data collection and analysis have proved difficult. The World Organisation forAnimal Health and Collectif TIS (Technique de l’Insecte Stérile), a French think tank, carried out a stakeholder surveyto understand the nature of the live insect trade and potential challenges to safety and efficiency. Target respondentshad experience in the areas of biocontrol, sterile insect technique, entomological research and regulatory affairs.Although the survey was sent globally, the responses were unintentionally biased towards Europe, where interest ishigh, since this region is developing a comprehensive framework to promote the use of beneficial insects to replacepesticides.The survey also explored respondents’ knowledge of several international agreements on the movement and riskmanagement of beneficial or invasive insects. Knowledge of the various regulations was generally poor, and respondents highlighted a perceived lack of clarity regarding live insect shipments in the existing international regulationsand guidelines. Almost two-thirds of participants reported reluctance by carriers to accept live insects for shipment,and three-quarters described occasional to systematic delays that resulted in a reduction of quality or viability. Somerespondents reported that they instead hand-carry live insects, mostly in small quantities.Participants described being directly involved in trade covering 70 species of live insects and ticks transportedamong 37 countries, with volumes ranging from fewer than ten insects to over a million per shipment. Of these, 30%were potential vectors of pathogens to humans or animals, 42% were potential plant pest species (including someused for biocontrol), and 17% were classical biocontrol agents.The results of this survey begin to define the current scope, scale and issues for t

  • Journal article
    QUINLAN MM, MUMFORD JD, MESSORI S, ENKERLIN WR, SHIMURA J, SMITH L, DASS B, OLIVA CF, NELSON C, CHAND R, TORRES Get al., 2022,

    Issues and gaps in international guidance and national regulatory systems affecting international live insect trade

    , Revue Scientifique et Technique de l'OIE, Vol: 41, Pages: 198-210, ISSN: 0253-1933

    International trade in live insects involves the shipping of many different species, for various purposes, with a varietyof handling requirements regulated by numerous authorities with varying objectives. The diversity of factors at playhas both created and been subject to a complex regulatory landscape. A review of global production, shipping and useexperiences from a range of perspectives has shown gaps and inconsistencies in international guidance and nationalimplementation. Private carriers add another layer of uncertainty that is disproportionate to risks, resulting in variablepractices and charges.Many benefits can come from international trade in insects, including pollinator services, control of pests and of disease vectors, and enhanced international scientific research and innovation. These benefits will be better achievedthrough a more evidence-based and efficient approach to regulating trade. This change in approach will in turn require an improved and widely accepted risk-management landscape for insect trade.

  • Journal article
    MUMFORD JD, QUINLAN MM, 2022,

    Opportunities and recommendations for improved international shipment of live insects

    , Revue Scientifique et Technique de l'OIE, Vol: 41, Pages: 228-250, ISSN: 0253-1933

    While the information on live insect shipments provided in this thematic issue of the Scientific and Technical Reviewcould not be exhaustive, it clearly represents a broad variety of trade, of substantial value, involving many stakeholdersthroughout the world. The contributions to this issue demonstrate that most of the trade in insects is carried out safelyand efficiently. The concerns related to shipping insects described within this issue fall broadly into four categories:risks to human, animal and environmental health; delays and loss of quality; refusal of carriage; and high and variablecosts. Some opportunities for improvements to insect shipping for diverse stakeholders are shown across these fourareas of concern, with specific recommendations and a general call for further collaboration among stakeholders.

  • Journal article
    QUINLAN MM, MUMFORD JD, BENEDICT MQ, WÄCKERS F, OLIVA CF, WOHLFARTER M, SMAGGHE G, VILA E, KLAPWIJK J, MICHAELAKIS A, COLLINS CM, PRUDHOMME J, TORRES G, DIAZ F, SAUL-GERSHENZ L, COOK K, VERGHESE A, SREERAMA KUMAR Pet al., 2022,

    Can there be a common, risk-based framework for decisions around live insect trade?

    , Revue Scientifique et Technique de l'OIE, Vol: 41, Pages: 219-227, ISSN: 0253-1933

    A network of scientists involved in shipment of live insects has met and generated a series of articles on issues relatedto live insect transport. The network is diverse, covering large-scale commercial interests, government operated areawide control programmes, biomedical research and many smaller applications, in research, education and privateuses. Many insect species have a record of safe transport, pose minimal risks and are shipped frequently betweencountries. The routine shipments of the most frequently used insect model organism for biomedical research,Drosophila melanogaster, is an example. Successful large-scale shipments from commercial biocontrol and pollinatorsuppliers also demonstrate precedents for low-risk shipment categories, delivered in large volumes to high qualitystandards. Decision makers need access to more information (publications or official papers) that details actual risksfrom the insects themselves or their possible contaminants, and should propose proportionate levels of management.There may be harm to source environments when insects are collected directly from the wild, and there may be harmhttps://doi.org/10.20506/rst.41.1.3319Scientific and Technical Review 41 (1) 2022 220to receiving environments. Several risk frameworks include insects and various international coordinating bodies,with experience of guidance on relevant risks, exist. All stakeholders would benefit from an integrated overview ofguidance for insect shipping, with reference to types of risk and categories of magnitude, without trying for a singleapproach requiring universal agreement. Proposals for managing uncertainty and lack of data for smaller or infrequent shipments, for example, must not disrupt trade in large volumes of live insects, which are already supportingstrategic objectives in several sectors.

  • Journal article
    Lembrechts JJ, van den Hoogen J, Aalto J, Ashcroft MB, De Frenne P, Kemppinen J, Kopecky M, Luoto M, Maclean IMD, Crowther TW, Bailey JJ, Haesen S, Klinges DH, Niittynen P, Scheffers BR, Van Meerbeek K, Aartsma P, Abdalaze O, Abedi M, Aerts R, Ahmadian N, Ahrends A, Alatalo JM, Alexander JM, Allonsius CN, Altman J, Ammann C, Andres C, Andrews C, Ardo J, Arriga N, Arzac A, Aschero V, Assis RL, Assmann JJ, Bader MY, Bahalkeh K, Barancok P, Barrio IC, Barros A, Barthel M, Basham EW, Bauters M, Bazzichetto M, Marchesini LB, Bell MC, Benavides JC, Benito Alonso JL, Berauer BJ, Bjerke JW, Bjork RG, Bjorkman MP, Bjornsdottir K, Blonder B, Boeckx P, Boike J, Bokhorst S, Brum BNS, Bruna J, Buchmann N, Buysse P, Camargo JL, Campoe OC, Candan O, Canessa R, Cannone N, Carbognani M, Carnicer J, Casanova-Katny A, Cesarz S, Chojnicki B, Choler P, Chown SL, Cifuentes EF, Ciliak M, Contador T, Convey P, Cooper EJ, Cremonese E, Curasi SR, Curtis R, Cutini M, Dahlberg CJ, Daskalova GN, Angel de Pablo M, Della Chiesa S, Dengler J, Deronde B, Descombes P, Di Cecco V, Di Musciano M, Dick J, Dimarco RD, Dolezal J, Dorrepaal E, Dusek J, Eisenhauer N, Eklundh L, Erickson TE, Erschbamer B, Eugster W, Ewers RM, Exton DA, Fanin N, Fazlioglu F, Feigenwinter I, Fenu G, Ferlian O, Fernandez Calzado MR, Fernandez-Pascual E, Finckh M, Higgens RF, Forte TGW, Freeman EC, Frei ER, Fuentes-Lillo E, Garcia RA, Garcia MB, Geron C, Gharun M, Ghosn D, Gigauri K, Gobin A, Goded I, Goeckede M, Gottschall F, Goulding K, Govaert S, Graae BJ, Greenwood S, Greiser C, Grelle A, Guenard B, Guglielmin M, Guillemot J, Haase P, Haider S, Halbritter AH, Hamid M, Hammerle A, Hampe A, Haugum S, Hederova L, Heinesch B, Helfter C, Hepenstrick D, Herberich M, Herbst M, Hermanutz L, Hik DS, Hoffren R, Homeier J, Hortnagl L, Hoye TT, Hrbacek F, Hylander K, Iwata H, Jackowicz-Korczynski MA, Jactel H, Jarveoja J, Jastrzebowski S, Jentsch A, Jimenez JJ, Jonsdottir IS, Jucker T, Jump AS, Juszczak R, Kanka R, Kaspar V, Kazakis Get al., 2022,

    Global maps of soil temperature

    , Global Change Biology, Vol: 28, Pages: 3110-3144, ISSN: 1354-1013

    Research in global change ecology relies heavily on global climatic grids derived from estimates of air temperature in open areas at around 2 m above the ground. These climatic grids do not reflect conditions below vegetation canopies and near the ground surface, where critical ecosystem functions occur and most terrestrial species reside. Here, we provide global maps of soil temperature and bioclimatic variables at a 1-km2 resolution for 0–5 and 5–15 cm soil depth. These maps were created by calculating the difference (i.e. offset) between in situ soil temperature measurements, based on time series from over 1200 1-km2 pixels (summarized from 8519 unique temperature sensors) across all the world's major terrestrial biomes, and coarse-grained air temperature estimates from ERA5-Land (an atmospheric reanalysis by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). We show that mean annual soil temperature differs markedly from the corresponding gridded air temperature, by up to 10°C (mean = 3.0 ± 2.1°C), with substantial variation across biomes and seasons. Over the year, soils in cold and/or dry biomes are substantially warmer (+3.6 ± 2.3°C) than gridded air temperature, whereas soils in warm and humid environments are on average slightly cooler (−0.7 ± 2.3°C). The observed substantial and biome-specific offsets emphasize that the projected impacts of climate and climate change on near-surface biodiversity and ecosystem functioning are inaccurately assessed when air rather than soil temperature is used, especially in cold environments. The global soil-related bioclimatic variables provided here are an important step forward for any application in ecology and related disciplines. Nevertheless, we highlight the need to fill remaining geographic gaps by collecting more in situ measurements of microclimate conditions to further enhance the spatiotemporal resolution of global soil temperature products for ecolog

  • Journal article
    Alif Ž, Dunning J, Chik HYJ, Burke T, Schroeder Jet al., 2022,

    What is the best fitness measure in wild populations? A case study on the power of short-term fitness proxies to predict reproductive value

    , PLoS One, Vol: 17, ISSN: 1932-6203

    Fitness is at the core of evolutionary theory, but it is difficult to measure accurately. One way to measure long-term fitness is by calculating the individual's reproductive value, which represents the expected number of allele copies an individual passes on to distant future generations. However, this metric of fitness is scarcely used because the estimation of individual's reproductive value requires long-term pedigree data, which is rarely available in wild populations where following individuals from birth to death is often impossible. Wild study systems therefore use short-term fitness metrics as proxies, such as the number of offspring produced. This study compared two frequently used short-term metrics for fitness obtained at different offspring life stages (eggs, hatchlings, fledglings and recruits), and compared their ability to predict reproductive values derived from the genetic pedigree of a wild passerine bird population. We used twenty years of precise field observations and a near-complete genetic pedigree to calculate reproductive success, individual growth rate and de-lifed fitness as lifetime fitness measures, and as annual de-lifed fitness. We compared the power of these metrics to predict reproductive values and lineage survival to the end of the study period. The three short-term fitness proxies predict the reproductive values and lineage survival only when measured at the recruit stage. There were no significant differences between the different fitness proxies at the same offspring stages in predicting the reproductive values and lineage survival. Annual fitness at one year old predicted reproductive values equally well as lifetime de-lifed fitness. However, none of the short-term fitness proxies were strongly associated with the reproductive values. The commonly used short-term fitness proxies best predict long-term fitness when measured at recruitment stage. Thus, because lifetime fitness measured at recruit stage and annual fitness in the

  • Journal article
    Kordas RL, Pawar S, Kontopoulos D-G, Woodward G, O'Gorman EJet al., 2022,

    Metabolic plasticity can amplify ecosystem responses to global warming

    , NATURE COMMUNICATIONS, Vol: 13
  • Journal article
    Cavender-Bares J, Nelson E, Meireles JE, Lasky J, Miteva DA, Nowak D, Pearse W, Helmus M, Zanne AE, Fagan W, otherset al., 2022,

    The hidden value of trees: quantifying the ecosystem services of tree lineages and their major threats across the continental US

    , PLoS
  • Journal article
    Yordanova M, Evison SEF, Gill RJ, Graystock Pet al., 2022,

    The threat of pesticide and disease co-exposure to managed and wild bee larvae

    , International Journal for Parasitology: Parasites and Wildlife, Vol: 17, Pages: 319-326, ISSN: 2213-2244

    Brood diseases and pesticides can reduce the survival of bee larvae, reduce bee populations, and negatively influence ecosystem biodiversity. However, major gaps persist in our knowledge regarding the routes and implications of co-exposure to these stressors in managed and wild bee brood. In this review, we evaluate the likelihood for co-exposure to brood pathogen and pesticide stressors by examining the routes of potential co-exposure and the possibility for pollen and nectar contaminated with pathogens and pesticides to become integrated into brood food. Furthermore, we highlight ways in which pesticides may increase brood disease morbidity directly, through manipulating host immunity, and indirectly through disrupting microbial communities in the guts of larvae, or compromising brood care provided by adult bees. Lastly, we quantify the brood research bias towards Apis species and discuss the implications the bias has on brood disease and pesticide risk assessment in wild bee communities. We advise that future studies should place a higher emphasis on evaluating bee brood afflictions and their interactions with commonly encountered stressors, especially in wild bee species.

  • Journal article
    Dobson B, Barry S, Maes-Prior R, Mijic A, Woodward G, Pearse WDet al., 2022,

    Predicting catchment suitability for biodiversity at national scales

    <jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>Biomonitoring of water quality and catchment management are often disconnected, due to mismatching scales. Great effort and money is spent each year on routine reach-scale surveying across many sites, particularly in the UK, and typically with a focus on pre-defined indicators of organic pollution to compare observed vs expected subsets of common macroinvertebrate indicator species. Threatened species are often ignored due to their rarity as are many invasive species, which are seen as undesirable even though they are increasingly common in freshwaters, especially in urban ecosystems. However, these taxa are monitored separately for reasons related to biodiversity concerns rather than for gauging water quality. Repurposing such monitoring data could therefore provide important new biomonitoring tools that can help catchment managers to directly link the water quality that they aim to control with the biodiversity that they are trying to protect. Here we used the England Non-Native and Rare/Protected species records that track these two groups of species as a proof-of-concept for linking catchment scale management of freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity to a range of potential drivers across England. We used national land use (Centre for Ecology and Hydrology land cover map) and water quality indicator (Environment Agency water quality data archive) datasets to predict the presence or absence of 48 focal threatened or invasive species of concern routinely sampled by the English Environment Agency at catchment scale, with a median accuracy of 0.81 area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. A variety of water quality indicators and land-use types were useful in predictions, highlighting that future biomonitoring schemes could use such complementary measures to capture a wider spectrum of drivers and responses. In particular, the percentage of a catchment covered by freshwater was the single most

  • Journal article
    Prentice IC, Villegas-Diaz R, Harrison SP, 2022,

    Accounting for atmospheric carbon dioxide variations in pollen-based reconstructions of past hydroclimates.

    , Global and Planetary Change, Vol: 211, Pages: 1-9, ISSN: 0921-8181

    Changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration directly influence the ratio of stomatal water loss to carbon uptake. This ratio (e) is a fundamental quantity for terrestrial ecosystems, as it defines the water requirement for plant growth. Statistical and analogue-based methods used to reconstruct past hydroclimate variables from fossil pollen assemblages do not take account of the effect of CO2 variations on e. Here we present a general, globally applicable method to correct for this effect. The method involves solving an equation that relates e to a climatic moisture index (MI, the ratio of mean annual precipitation to mean annual potential evapotranspiration), mean growing-season temperature, and ambient CO2. The equation is based on the least-cost optimality hypothesis, which predicts how the ratio (χ) of leaf-internal to ambient CO2 varies with vapour pressure deficit (vpd), growing-season temperature and atmospheric pressure, combined with experimental evidence on the response of χ to the CO2 level at which plants have been grown. An empirical relationship based on global climate data is used to relate vpd to MI and growing-season temperature. The solution to the equation allows past MI to be estimated from pollen-reconstructed MI, given past CO2 and temperature. This MI value can be used to estimate mean annual precipitation, accounting for the effects of orbital variations, temperature and cloud cover (inferred from MI) on potential evapotranspiration. A pollen record from semi-arid Spain that spans the last glacial interval is used to illustrate the method. Low CO2 leads to estimated MI being larger than reconstructed MI during glacial times. The CO2 effect on inferred precipitation was partly offset by increased cloud cover; nonetheless, inferred precipitation was greater than present almost throughout the glacial period. This method allows a more robust reconstruction of past hydroclimatic variations than currently available tools.

  • Journal article
    Henson SA, Laufkotter C, Leung S, Giering SLC, Palevsky H, Cavan ELet al., 2022,

    Uncertain response of ocean biological carbon export in a changing world

    , NATURE GEOSCIENCE, Vol: 15, Pages: 248-254, ISSN: 1752-0894
  • Journal article
    Gan W, Nóbrega R, Prentice IC, 2022,

    Analysis of vegetation modelling uncertainties due to soil moisture stress during droughts

    <jats:p>&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;Many model uncertainties results from parameter tuning to compensate for errors in model outputs. A number of studies have focused on the analysis of uncertainties in modelled gross primary production (GPP), particularly with regard to the representation of soil moisture stress. GPP is often overestimated by models during dry periods in water-limited regions, and this bias increases during drought events. Soil moisture stress functions are widely applied to correct this. However, soil moisture stress is not always the direct constraining factor on GPP, and the functions adopted by models do not correspond to accepted mechanisms. We have used eco-evolutionary optimality principles, via the so-called P model, to estimate carbon uptake at sites where leaf area index (LAI) was routinely measured. We used observational networks (including FLUXNET) and Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (fAPAR) data from satellites. By comparing modelled and observed GPP we determined whether there is a significant difference between model performance during the dry and wet seasons, or between energy- and water-limited sites. We found that the soil moisture stress function used in one version of the P models essentially compensates for uncertainties in fAPAR data from satellites, especially in grasslands and other areas subject to seasonal drought. This situation is problematic, since soil moisture is a driver or modulator of other ecosystem processes, including soil evaporation and runoff generation. A possible way forward involves implementing phenological components dependent on soil and atmospheric conditions. The new challenge this poses is to apply eco-evolutionary optimality principles to model the seasonal time course of LAI, which is often poorly simulated by complex ecosystem models.&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;</jats:p>

  • Journal article
    Lavergne A, Harrison SP, Prentice IC, 2022,

    Investigating C3/C4 plants competition using carbon isotopes and optimality principles

    <jats:p>&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;Understanding the mechanisms underlying changes in carbon isotope discrimination (&amp;amp;#916;&amp;lt;sup&amp;gt;13&amp;lt;/sup&amp;gt;C) in C&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;3&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt; and C&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;4&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt; plants is critical for predicting the C&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;3&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt;/C&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;4&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt; fraction in mixed ecosystems. Variations in &amp;amp;#916;&amp;lt;sup&amp;gt;13&amp;lt;/sup&amp;gt;C are closely related to changes in the stomatal limitation of photosynthesis (i.e. the ratio of leaf internal to ambient partial pressure of CO&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;2&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt;, &amp;lt;em&amp;gt;c&amp;lt;/em&amp;gt;&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;i&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt;/&amp;lt;em&amp;gt;c&amp;lt;/em&amp;gt;&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;a&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt;), which are in turn determined by environmental variables, but also depend on the pathway of carbon assimilation. For instance, isotopic fractionation during the diffusion of CO&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;2&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt; through the stomata primarily influences &amp;amp;#916;&amp;lt;sup&amp;gt;13&amp;lt;/sup&amp;gt;C in C&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;4&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt; plants, while fractionation during Rubisco carboxylation has a stronger imprint on &amp;amp;#916;&amp;lt;sup&amp;gt;13&amp;lt;/sup&amp;gt;C in C&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;3&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt; plants. As a result, C&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;3&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt; plants are depleted in &amp;lt;sup&amp;gt;13&amp;lt;/sup&amp;gt;C compared to C&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;4&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt; plants. Isotopic measurements can thus be used as tracers of physiological processes in plants.&amp;lt;/p&am

  • Journal article
    Mengoli G, Harrison SP, Prentice IC, 2022,

    Towards a land surface model based on optimality principles

    <jats:p>&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;Plants take up water from the soil via roots and release it into the atmosphere through stomata; uptake of CO&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;2&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt; from the atmosphere also proceeds through the stomata, implying tight coupling of transpiration and photosynthesis. We distinguish leaf-level (biochemical and stomatal) responses to external stimuli on different timescales: fast responses taking place over seconds to hours, and longer-term (acclimation) responses taking place over weeks to months. Typically, land-surface models (LSMs) have focused on the fast responses, and have not accounted for acclimation responses, although these can be different in magnitude and even in sign. We have developed a method that explicitly separates these two timescales in order to implement an existing optimality-based model, the P model, with a sub-daily timestep; and, thereby, to include acclimated responses within an LSM framework. The resulting model, compared to flux-tower gross primary production (GPP) data in five &amp;amp;#8220;well-watered&amp;amp;#8221; biomes from boreal to tropical, correctly reproduces diurnal cycles of GPP throughout the growing season. No changes of parameters are required between biomes, because optimality ensures that current parameter values are always adapted to the local environment. This is a clear practical advantage because it eliminates the need to specify different parameter values for different plant functional types. However, in areas with large seasonal variations in moisture variability, the model does not perform well. Here we address the issue of soil-moisture controls on GPP, which is a challenging issue for LSMs in general. We note two problems: an error in magnitude, and an error in shape. The model tends to overestimate GPP in dry areas because it does not consider the effect of low soil moisture (as opposed to atmospheric dryness) on photosynthesis; and it does not simul

  • Journal article
    Nóbrega R, Prentice IC, 2022,

    Rapid and temporary increases in low flows in the Amazon explained by changes in root-zone water storage

    <jats:p>&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;Increases in streamflow are often attributed to land-cover clearing (LCC) on the basis that it reduces soil infiltration capacity and increases surface runoff. Nonetheless, these changes can result from different hydrological mechanisms depending on the vegetation, and temporal and spatial scales. LCC triggers a series of changes in hydrological fluxes that have non-linear responses to precipitation and that were established upon the long-term balance with regional climatological, edaphic, and geological characteristics. We analysed streamflow and root zone water capacity (RZSC) to identify underlying relationships between stream dynamics and water consumption by plants. We used a time-series segmentation and residual trend analysis on streamflow and precipitation of high-order tributaries of the Tapaj&amp;amp;#243;s River whose catchments underwent intense land-use changes over the past decades. We estimated the RZSC using the &amp;quot;Earth observation-based&amp;quot; mass-curve balance method by considering the annual land-cover changes over a &amp;gt;30-year period. We show that the reduction in the RZWC caused by changes in the water consumption by plants over the dry season is tightly associated with the increased baseflow contribution to rivers. Finally, we analysed gross primary productivity (GPP) and ET estimates generated by a model based on eco-evolutionary optimality that integrates the water and carbon cycles at the canopy level. We found that trends in ET from croplands are not as pronounced as trends in GPP. Although RZWC is quantified using the water deficit driven by ET, changes in RZWC are more correlated to changes in GPP. We show that the potential effects of vegetation responses to increasing atmospheric CO&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;2&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt; concentrations on streamflow are still outweighed by impacts of land-use change on low flows in Amazon rivers. However, this might

  • Journal article
    Shah T, Mashimba FH, Suleiman HO, Mbailwa YS, Schneider J, Zizka G, Savolainen V, Larridon I, Darbyshire Iet al., 2022,

    Phylogenetics of <i>Ochna</i> (Ochnaceae) and a new infrageneric classification

    , BOTANICAL JOURNAL OF THE LINNEAN SOCIETY, Vol: 198, Pages: 361-381, ISSN: 0024-4074
  • Journal article
    Gregory N, Ewers RM, Chung AYC, Cator LJet al., 2022,

    Oil palm expansion increases the vectorial capacity of dengue vectors in Malaysian Borneo

    , PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol: 16, ISSN: 1935-2727

    Changes in land-use and the associated shifts in environmental conditions can have large effects on the transmission and emergence of mosquito-borne disease. Mosquito-borne disease are particularly sensitive to these changes because mosquito growth, reproduction, survival and susceptibility to infection are all thermally sensitive traits, and land use change dramatically alters local microclimate. Predicting disease transmission under environmental change is increasingly critical for targeting mosquito-borne disease control and for identifying hotspots of disease emergence. Mechanistic models offer a powerful tool for improving these predictions. However, these approaches are limited by the quality and scale of temperature data and the thermal response curves that underlie predictions. Here, we used fine-scale temperature monitoring and a combination of empirical, laboratory and temperature-dependent estimates to estimate the vectorial capacity of Aedes albopictus mosquitoes across a tropical forest-oil palm plantation conversion gradient in Malaysian Borneo. We found that fine-scale differences in temperature between logged forest and oil palm plantation sites were not sufficient to produce differences in temperature-dependent demographic trait estimates using published thermal performance curves. However, when measured under field conditions a key parameter, adult abundance, differed significantly between land-use types, resulting in estimates of vectorial capacity that were 1.5 times higher in plantations than in forests. The prediction that oil palm plantations would support mosquito populations with higher vectorial capacity was robust to uncertainties in our adult survival estimates. These results provide a mechanistic basis for understanding the effects of forest conversion to agriculture on mosquito-borne disease risk, and a framework for interpreting emergent relationships between land-use and disease transmission. As the burden of Ae. albopictus-vectored d

  • Report
    Morris O, Barquín J, Belgrano A, Blanchard J, Bull C, Layer-Dobra K, Lauridsen R, O’Gorman E, Guõbergsson G, Woodward Get al., 2022,

    New strategies for sustainable fisheries management: A case study of Atlantic salmon

    , New strategies for sustainable fisheries management: A case study of Atlantic salmon, http://www.imperial.ac.uk/grantham, Publisher: The Grantham Institute, 37

    This briefing paper considers the alarming declines in fish stocks in recent years, and how holistic, integrated approaches can help manage fish stocks within biologically sustainable limits. Using Atlantic salmon as a case study, the authors highlight the challenges facing fisheries management and conservation, and the implications for policy and management.

  • Journal article
    Chan AHH, Qi L, Burke T, Pearse W, Schroeder Jet al., 2022,

    Machine learning pipeline extracts biologically significant data automatically from avian monitoring videos

  • Journal article
    Beaghton PJ, Burt A, 2022,

    Gene drives and population persistence vs elimination: The impact of spatial structure and inbreeding at low density

    , Theoretical Population Biology, Vol: 145, ISSN: 0040-5809

    Synthetic gene drive constructs are being developed to control disease vectors, invasive species, and other pest species. In a well-mixed random mating population a sufficiently strong gene drive is expected to eliminate a target population, but it is not clear whether the same is true when spatial processes play a role. In species with an appropriate biology it is possible that drive-induced reductions in density might lead to increased inbreeding, reducing the efficacy of drive, eventually leading to suppression rather than elimination, regardless of how strong the drive is. To investigate this question we analyse a series of explicitly solvable stochastic models considering a range of scenarios for the relative timing of mating, reproduction, and dispersal and analyse the impact of two different types of gene drive, a Driving Y chromosome and a homing construct targeting an essential gene. We find in all cases a sufficiently strong Driving Y will go to fixation and the population will be eliminated, except in the one life history scenario (reproduction and mating in patches followed by dispersal) where low density leads to increased inbreeding, in which case the population persists indefinitely, tending to either a stable equilibrium or a limit cycle. These dynamics arise because Driving Y males have reduced mating success, particularly at low densities, due to having fewer sisters to mate with. Increased inbreeding at low densities can also prevent a homing construct from eliminating a population. For both types of drive, if there is strong inbreeding depression, then the population cannot be rescued by inbreeding and it is eliminated. These results highlight the potentially critical role that low-density-induced inbreeding and inbreeding depression (and, by extension, other sources of Allee effects) can have on the eventual impact of a gene drive on a target population.

  • Journal article
    Tobias JA, Sheard C, Pigot AL, Devenish AJM, Yang J, Sayol F, Neate-Clegg MHC, Alioravainen N, Weeks TL, Barber RA, Walkden PA, MacGregor HEA, Jones SEI, Vincent C, Phillips AG, Marples NM, Montano-Centellas FA, Leandro-Silva V, Claramunt S, Darski B, Freeman BG, Bregman TP, Cooney CR, Hughes EC, Capp EJR, Varley ZK, Friedman NR, Korntheuer H, Corrales-Vargas A, Trisos CH, Weeks BC, Hanz DM, Topfer T, Bravo GA, Remes V, Nowak L, Carneiro LS, Moncada R AJ, Matysiokova B, Baldassarre DT, Martinez-Salinas A, Wolfe JD, Chapman PM, Daly BG, Sorensen MC, Neu A, Ford MA, Mayhew RJ, Fabio Silveira L, Kelly DJ, Annorbah NND, Pollock HS, Grabowska-Zhang AM, McEntee JP, Carlos T Gonzalez J, Meneses CG, Munoz MC, Powell LL, Jamie GA, Matthews TJ, Johnson O, Brito GRR, Zyskowski K, Crates R, Harvey MG, Jurado Zevallos M, Hosner PA, Bradfer-Lawrence T, Maley JM, Stiles FG, Lima HS, Provost KL, Chibesa M, Mashao M, Howard JT, Mlamba E, Chua MAH, Li B, Gomez MI, Garcia NC, Packert M, Fuchs J, Ali JR, Derryberry EP, Carlson ML, Urriza RC, Brzeski KE, Prawiradilaga DM, Rayner MJ, Miller ET, Bowie RCK, Lafontaine R-M, Scofield RP, Lou Y, Somarathna L, Lepage D, Illif M, Neuschulz EL, Templin M, Dehling DM, Cooper JC, Pauwels OSG, Analuddin K, Fjeldsa J, Seddon N, Sweet PR, DeClerck FAJ, Naka LN, Brawn JD, Aleixo A, Bohning-Gaese K, Rahbek C, Fritz SA, Thomas GH, Schleuning Met al., 2022,

    AVONET: morphological, ecological and geographical data for all birds

    , Ecology Letters, Vol: 25, Pages: 581-597, ISSN: 1461-023X

    Functional traits offer a rich quantitative framework for developing and testing theories in evolutionary biology, ecology and ecosystem science. However, the potential of functional traits to drive theoretical advances and refine models of global change can only be fully realised when species-level information is complete. Here we present the AVONET dataset containing comprehensive functional trait data for all birds, including six ecological variables, 11 continuous morphological traits, and information on range size and location. Raw morphological measurements are presented from 90,020 individuals of 11,009 extant bird species sampled from 181 countries. These data are also summarised as species averages in three taxonomic formats, allowing integration with a global phylogeny, geographical range maps, IUCN Red List data and the eBird citizen science database. The AVONET dataset provides the most detailed picture of continuous trait variation for any major radiation of organisms, offering a global template for testing hypotheses and exploring the evolutionary origins, structure and functioning of biodiversity.

  • Journal article
    Tobias JA, 2022,

    A bird in the hand: global-scale morphological trait datasets open new frontiers of ecology, evolution and ecosystem science

    , Ecology Letters, Vol: 25, Pages: 573-580, ISSN: 1461-023X
  • Journal article
    Freeman BG, Weeks T, Schluter D, Tobias JAet al., 2022,

    The latitudinal gradient in rates of evolution for bird beaks, a species interaction trait

    , Ecology Letters, Vol: 25, Pages: 635-646, ISSN: 1461-023X

    Where is evolution fastest? The biotic interactions hypothesis proposes that greater species richness creates more ecological opportunity, driving faster evolution at low latitudes, whereas the ‘empty niches’ hypothesis proposes that ecological opportunity is greater where diversity is low, spurring faster evolution at high latitudes. We tested these contrasting predictions by analysing rates of beak evolution for a global dataset of 1141 avian sister species. Rates of beak size evolution are similar across latitudes, with some evidence that beak shape evolves faster in the temperate zone, consistent with the empty niches hypothesis. The empty niches hypothesis is further supported by a meta-analysis showing that rates of trait evolution and recent speciation are generally faster in the temperate zone, whereas rates of molecular evolution are slightly faster in the tropics. Our results suggest that drivers of evolutionary diversification are either similar across latitudes or more potent in the temperate zone, thus calling into question multiple hypotheses that invoke faster tropical evolution to explain the latitudinal diversity gradient.

  • Journal article
    Hordley LA, Powney GD, Brereton T, Gillings S, Petchey OL, Roy DB, Tobias JA, Williams J, Oliver THet al., 2022,

    Developing a national indicator of functional connectivity

    , Ecological Indicators, Vol: 136, ISSN: 1470-160X

    Habitat loss is a significant driver of biodiversity loss, causing fragmentation into small, isolated patches of suitable land cover. This reduces the permeability of landscapes to the movement of individuals and reduces the likelihood of metapopulation persistence. Quantifying functional connectivity, the ability of a focal species to move between resource patches, is therefore essential for conservation management. There is substantial evidence supporting a technique based on ‘population synchrony’- the degree of correlation in time-series of annual population growth rates between different long-term monitoring sites, to provide a measure of functional connectivity. However, synchronised population dynamics are not only driven by the movement of individuals between sites, but also shared environmental conditions which must be accounted for. Here, we use species survey data from over four decades to investigate average levels and temporal trends in population synchrony for 58 British bird and butterfly species. We first show that population synchrony is significantly associated with synchrony in some seasonal climatic variables. Once we accounted for spatiotemporal climatic patterns, we found that synchrony in butterflies declined over time by 71% between 1985 and 2000 but increased by 64% in recent years. Synchrony in birds showed some decline between 1999 and 2005, after which there appears to being recovery, however most species (74%) show no significant overall change in synchrony. Our proposed indicator provides a ‘species-eye-view’ of functional connectivity using widely available abundance data. Developing such indicators of functional connectivity, which can be updated annually, is crucial to improve the effectiveness of land management strategies for conservation under increasing environmental change.

  • Journal article
    Chen C, Riley W, Prentice IC, Keenan Tet al., 2022,

    CO2 fertilization of terrestrial photosynthesis inferred from site to global scales

    , Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of USA, Vol: 119, ISSN: 0027-8424

    Global photosynthesis is increasing with elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations, a response known as the CO2 fertilization effect (CFE), but the key processes of CFE are not constrained and therefore remain uncertain. Here we quantify CFE by combining observations from a globally distributed network of eddy covariance measurements with a novel analyticalframework based on three well-established photosynthetic optimization theories. We report a strong enhancement of photosynthesis across the observational network (9.1 gC m–2 yr–2) and show that the CFE is responsible for 44% of the gross primary production (GPP) enhancementsince the 2000s, with additional contributions primarily from warming (28%). Soil moisture and specific humidity are the two largest contributors to GPP interannual variation through their influences on plant hydraulics. Applying our framework to satellite observations and meteorological reanalysis data, we diagnose a global CO2-induced GPP trend of 4.4 gC m–2 yr–2, which is at least one-third stronger than the median trends of 13 Dynamic Global Vegetation Models and 8 satellite-derived GPP products, mainly due to their differences in the magnitude of CFE in evergreen broadleaf forests. These results highlight the critical role that CFE has had on the global carbon cycle in recent decades.

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