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  • Journal article
    Wearn OR, Rowcliffe JM, Carbone C, Pfeifer M, Bernard H, Ewers RMet al., 2017,

    Mammalian species abundance across a gradient of tropical land-use intensity: A hierarchical multi-species modelling approach

    , Biological Conservation, Vol: 212, Pages: 162-171, ISSN: 1873-2917

    Recent work in the tropics has advanced our understanding of the local impacts of land-use change on species richness. However, we still have a limited ability to make predictions about species abundances, especially in heterogeneous landscapes. Species abundances directly affect the functioning of an ecosystem and its conservation value. We applied a hierarchical model to camera- and live-trapping data from a region in Borneo, and estimated the relative abundance (controlling for imperfect detection) of 57 terrestrial mammal species, as a function of either categorical or continuous metrics of land-use change. We found that mean relative abundance increased (by 28%) from old-growth to logged forest, but declined substantially (by 47%) in oil palm plantations compared to forest. Abundance responses to above-ground live tree biomass (a continuous measure of local logging intensity) were negative overall, whilst they were strongly positive for landscape forest cover. From old-growth to logged forest, small mammals increased in their relative abundance proportionately much more than large mammals (169% compared to 13%). Similarly, omnivores and insectivores increased more than other trophic guilds (carnivores, herbivores and frugivores). From forest to oil palm, species of high conservation concern fared especially poorly (declining by 84%). Invasive species relative abundance consistently increased along the gradient of land-use intensity. Changes in relative abundance across nine functional effects groups based on diet were minimal from old-growth to logged forest, but in oil palm only the vertebrate predation function was maintained. Our results show that, in the absence of hunting, even the most intensively logged forests can conserve the abundance and functional effects of mammals. Recent pledges made by companies to support the protection of High Carbon Stock logged forest could therefore yield substantial conservation benefits. Within oil palm, our results suppo
  • Journal article
    Hudson LN, Newbold T, Contu S, Hill SL, Lysenko I, De Palma A, Phillips HR, Alhusseini TI, Bedford FE, Bennett DJ, Booth H, Burton VJ, Chng CW, Choimes A, Correia DL, Day J, Echeverría-Londoño S, Emerson SR, Gao D, Garon M, Harrison ML, Ingram DJ, Jung M, Kemp V, Kirkpatrick L, Martin CD, Pan Y, Pask-Hale GD, Pynegar EL, Robinson AN, Sanchez-Ortiz K, Senior RA, Simmons BI, White HJ, Zhang H, Aben J, Abrahamczyk S, Adum GB, Aguilar-Barquero V, Aizen MA, Albertos B, Alcala EL, Del Mar Alguacil M, Alignier A, Ancrenaz M, Andersen AN, Arbeláez-Cortés E, Armbrecht I, Arroyo-Rodríguez V, Aumann T, Axmacher JC, Azhar B, Azpiroz AB, Baeten L, Bakayoko A, Báldi A, Banks JE, Baral SK, Barlow J, Barratt BI, Barrico L, Bartolommei P, Barton DM, Basset Y, Batáry P, Bates AJ, Baur B, Bayne EM, Beja P, Benedick S, Berg Å, Bernard H, Berry NJ, Bhatt D, Bicknell JE, Bihn JH, Blake RJ, Bobo KS, Bóçon R, Boekhout T, Böhning-Gaese K, Bonham KJ, Borges PA, Borges SH, Boutin C, Bouyer J, Bragagnolo C, Brandt JS, Brearley FQ, Brito I, Bros V, Brunet J, Buczkowski G, Buddle CM, Bugter R, Buscardo E, Buse J, Cabra-García J, Cáceres NC, Cagle NL, Calviño-Cancela M, Cameron SA, Cancello EM, Caparrós R, Cardoso P, Carpenter D, Carrijo TF, Carvalho AL, Cassano CR, Castro H, Castro-Luna AA, Rolando CB, Cerezo A, Chapman KA, Chauvat M, Christensen M, Clarke FM, Cleary DF, Colombo G, Connop SP, Craig MD, Cruz-López L, Cunningham SA, D'Aniello B, D'Cruze N, da Silva PG, Dallimer M, Danquah E, Darvill B, Dauber J, Davis AL, Dawson J, de Sassi C, de Thoisy B, Deheuvels O, Dejean A, Devineau JL, Diekötter T, Dolia JV, Domínguez E, Dominguez-Haydar Y, Dorn S, Draper I, Dreber N, Dumont B, Dures SG, Dynesius M, Edenius L, Eggleton P, Eigenbrod F, Elek Z, Entling MH, Esler KJ, de Lima RF, Faruk A, Farwig N, Fayle TM, Felicioli A, Felton AM, Fensham RJ, Fernandez IC, Ferreira CC, Ficetola GF, Fiera C, Filgueiras BK, Fırıncıoğlu HK, Flaspohler D, Floren A, Fonte SJ, Fournier A, Fowler RE, Franzén M, Fraseret al., 2016,

    The database of the PREDICTS (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems) project

    , Ecology and Evolution, Vol: 7, Pages: 145-188, ISSN: 2045-7758

    The PREDICTS project-Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)-has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used this evidence base to develop global and regional statistical models of how local biodiversity responds to these measures. We describe and make freely available this 2016 release of the database, containing more than 3.2 million records sampled at over 26,000 locations and representing over 47,000 species. We outline how the database can help in answering a range of questions in ecology and conservation biology. To our knowledge, this is the largest and most geographically and taxonomically representative database of spatial comparisons of biodiversity that has been collated to date; it will be useful to researchers and international efforts wishing to model and understand the global status of biodiversity.
  • Journal article
    Bladon AJ, Short KM, Mohammed EY, Milner-Gulland EJet al., 2016,

    Payments for ecosystem services in developing world fisheries

    , FISH AND FISHERIES, Vol: 17, Pages: 839-859, ISSN: 1467-2960
  • Journal article
    De Palma A, Purvis A, 2016,

    Predicting bee community responses to land-use changes: effects of geographic and taxonomic biases

    , Scientific Reports, Vol: 6, ISSN: 2045-2322

    Land-use change and intensification threaten bee populations worldwide, imperilling pollination services. Global models are needed to better characterise, project, and mitigate bees' responses to these human impacts. The available data are, however, geographically and taxonomically unrepresentative; most data are from North America and Western Europe, overrepresenting bumblebees and raising concerns that model results may not be generalizable to other regions and taxa. To assess whether the geographic and taxonomic biases of data could undermine effectiveness of models for conservation policy, we have collated from the published literature a global dataset of bee diversity at sites facing land-use change and intensification, and assess whether bee responses to these pressures vary across 11 regions (Western, Northern, Eastern and Southern Europe; North, Central and South America; Australia and New Zealand; South East Asia; Middle and Southern Africa) and between bumblebees and other bees. Our analyses highlight strong regionally-based responses of total abundance, species richness and Simpson's diversity to land use, caused by variation in the sensitivity of species and potentially in the nature of threats. These results suggest that global extrapolation of models based on geographically and taxonomically restricted data may underestimate the true uncertainty, increasing the risk of ecological surprises.
  • Journal article
    Pfeifer M, Kor L, Nilus R, Turner E, Cusack J, Lysenko I, Khoo M, Chey VK, Chung AC, Ewers RMet al., 2016,

    Mapping the structure of Borneo's tropical forests across a degradation gradient

    , Remote Sensing of Environment, Vol: 176, Pages: 84-97, ISSN: 0034-4257

    South East Asia has the highest rate of lowland forest loss of any tropical region, with logging and deforestation for conversion to plantation agriculture being flagged as the most urgent threats. Detecting and mapping logging impacts on forest structure is a primary conservation concern, as these impacts feed through to changes in biodiversity and ecosystem functions. Here, we test whether high-spatial resolution satellite remote sensing can be used to map the responses of aboveground live tree biomass (AGB), canopy leaf area index (LAI) and fractional vegetation cover (FCover) to selective logging and deforestation in Malaysian Borneo. We measured these attributes in permanent vegetation plots in rainforest and oil palm plantations across the degradation landscape of the Stability of Altered Forest Ecosystems project. We found significant mathematical relationships between field-measured structure and satellite-derived spectral and texture information, explaining up to 62% of variation in biophysical structure across forest and oil palm plots. These relationships held at different aggregation levels from plots to forest disturbance types and oil palms allowing us to map aboveground biomass and canopy structure across the degradation landscape. The maps reveal considerable spatial variation in the impacts of previous logging, a pattern that was less clear when considering field data alone. Up-scaled maps revealed a pronounced decline in aboveground live tree biomass with increasing disturbance, impacts which are also clearly visible in the field data even a decade after logging. Field data demonstrate a rapid recovery in forest canopy structure with the canopy recovering to pre-disturbance levels a decade after logging. Yet, up-scaled maps show that both LAI and FCover are still reduced in logged compared to primary forest stands and markedly lower in oil palm stands. While uncertainties remain, these maps can now be utilised to identify conservation win–win
  • Journal article
    Alexander JS, McNamara J, Rowcliffe JM, Oppong J, Milner-Gulland EJet al., 2015,

    The role of bushmeat in a West African agricultural landscape

    , ORYX, Vol: 49, Pages: 643-651, ISSN: 0030-6053
  • Journal article
    Barraclough TG, Humphreys AM, 2015,

    The evolutionary reality of species and higher taxa in plants: a survey of post-modern opinion and evidence

    , NEW PHYTOLOGIST, Vol: 207, Pages: 291-296, ISSN: 0028-646X
  • Journal article
    Milner-Gulland EJ, Sainsbury K, Burgess N, Howe C, Sabuni F, Puis E, Killenga Ret al., 2015,

    Exploring stakeholder perceptions of conservation outcomes from alternative income generating activities in Tanzanian villages adjacent to Eastern Arc mountain forests.

    , Biological Conservation, Vol: 191, Pages: 20-28, ISSN: 0006-3207
  • Journal article
    Milner-Gulland EJ, Wallace A, Bunnefeld N, Jones JPG, Young R, Nicholson Eet al., 2015,

    Quantifying the short-term costs of conservation interventions for fishers at Lake Alaotra, Madagascar

    , PLOS One, Vol: 10, ISSN: 1932-6203

    Artisanal fisheries are a key source of food and income for millions of people, but if poorly managed, fishing can have declining returns as well as impacts on biodiversity. Management interventions such as spatial and temporal closures can improve fishery sustainability and reduce environmental degradation, but may carry substantial short-term costs for fishers. The Lake Alaotra wetland in Madagascar supports a commercially important artisanal fishery and provides habitat for a Critically Endangered primate and other endemic wildlife of conservation importance. Using detailed data from more than 1,600 fisher catches, we used linear mixed effects models to explore and quantify relationships between catch weight, effort, and spatial and temporal restrictions to identify drivers of fisher behaviour and quantify the potential effect of fishing restrictions on catch. We found that restricted area interventions and fishery closures would generate direct short-term costs through reduced catch and income, and these costs vary between groups of fishers using different gear. Our results show that conservation interventions can have uneven impacts on local people with different fishing strategies. This information can be used to formulate management strategies that minimise the adverse impacts of interventions, increase local support and compliance, and therefore maximise conservation effectiveness.
  • Journal article
    Milner-Gulland EJ, mcnamara J, rowcliffe M, cowlishaw G, kusimi Jet al., 2015,

    Long-term spatio-temporal changes in a West African bushmeat trade system

    , Conservation Biology, Vol: 29, Pages: 1446-1457, ISSN: 0888-8892

    Landscapes in many developing countries consist of a heterogeneous matrix of mixed agriculture and forest. Many of the generalist species in this matrix are increasingly traded in the bushmeat markets of West and Central Africa. However, to date there has been little quantification of how the spatial configuration of the landscape influences the urban bushmeat trade over time. As anthropogenic landscapes become the face of rural West Africa, understanding the dynamics of these systems has important implications for conservation and landscape management. The bushmeat production of an area is likely to be defined by landscape characteristics such as habitat disturbance, hunting pressure, level of protection, and distance to market. We explored (SSG, tense) the role of these four characteristics in the spatio-temporal dynamics of the commercial bushmeat trade around the city of Kumasi, Ghana, over 27 years (1978 to 2004). We used geographic information system methods to generate maps delineating the spatial characteristics of the landscapes. These data were combined with spatially explicit market data collected in the main fresh bushmeat market in Kumasi to explore the relationship between trade volume (measured in terms of number of carcasses) and landscape characteristics. Over time, rodents, specifically cane rats (Thryonomys swinderianus), became more abundant in the trade relative to ungulates and the catchment area of the bushmeat market expanded. Areas of intermediate disturbance supplied more bushmeat, but protected areas had no effect. Heavily hunted areas showed significant declines in bushmeat supply over time. Our results highlight the role that low intensity, heterogeneous agricultural landscapes can play in providing ecosystem services, such as bushmeat, and therefore the importance of incorporating bushmeat into ecosystem service mapping exercises. Our results also indicate that even where high bushmeat production is possible, current harvest levels may

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