Publications
530 results found
Donnelly CA, Seth J, Clayton RM, et al., 1997, Some plasma constituents correlate with human cataract location and nuclear colour, OPHTHALMIC RESEARCH, Vol: 29, Pages: 207-217, ISSN: 0030-3747
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- Citations: 6
Anderson RM, Donnelly CA, Ferguson NM, et al., 1997, Erratum: Transmission dynamics and epidemiology of BSE in British cattle (Nature (1996) 382 (779-788)), Nature, Vol: 386, ISSN: 0028-0836
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- Citations: 1
Donnelly CA, Ghani AC, Ferguson NM, et al., 1997, Analysis of the bovine spongiform encephalopathy maternal cohort study: Evidence for direct maternal transmission, JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY SERIES C-APPLIED STATISTICS, Vol: 46, Pages: 321-344, ISSN: 0035-9254
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- Citations: 33
Ferguson NM, Donnelly CA, Woolhouse ME, et al., 1997, The epidemiology of BSE in cattle herds in Great Britain. II. Model construction and analysis of transmission dynamics, Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci, Vol: 352, Pages: 803-838, ISSN: 0962-8436
Mathematical model that describe the key processes determining the pattern of the bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) epidemic in British cattle are derived that allow for infection from feed as well as maternal and direct horizontal transmission. Heterogeneous susceptibility classes are also incorporated into the analysis. Maximum likelihood methods are used to estimate parameters and to obtain confidence intervals from available experimental and epidemiological data. A comprehensive sensitivity analysis of all model parameters and distributional assumptions is presented. Additional validation is provided by fitting the model to independent data collected in Northern Ireland. Model estimates and predictions based on BSE case data for Great Britain and Northern Ireland, together with their implications, are reviewed, and future research priorities discussed.
Donnelly CA, Gore SM, Curnow RN, et al., 1997, The bovine spongiform encephalopathy maternal cohort study: Its purpose and findings, JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY SERIES C-APPLIED STATISTICS, Vol: 46, Pages: 299-304, ISSN: 0035-9254
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- Citations: 16
Ferguson NM, Donnelly CA, Woolhouse ME, et al., 1997, A genetic interpretation of heightened risk of BSE in offspring of affected dams, Proc Biol Sci, Vol: 264, Pages: 1445-1455, ISSN: 0962-8452
An analysis is presented of the results of a cohort study designed to test whether or not the aetiological agent of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in cattle can be transmitted maternally (vertically) from dam offspring. Various genetic models are fitted to the data under the assumption that the results could be explained entirely by genetic predisposition to disease (as opposed to maternal transmission) given exposure of offspring of diseased and unaffected dams to contaminated cattle feed. The analyses suggest that the results could be explained by the hypothesis of genetic predisposition, provided a large difference exists in the susceptibility of resistant and susceptible hosts, and explore the range of genotypic parameters and frequencies consistent with the limited currently available data. The results presented are broadly robust, even under the scenario that a portion of the observed maternally enhanced risk of BSE is due to a low level of maternal transmission in late incubation stage dams.
Donnelly CA, Ferguson NM, Ghani AC, et al., 1997, Analysis of dam-calf pairs of BSE cases: confirmation of a maternal risk enhancement, Proc Biol Sci, Vol: 264, Pages: 1647-1656, ISSN: 0962-8452
We investigate whether a calf born to a dam that develops bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) (prior or subsequent to the birth) is itself at an enhanced risk of developing BSE. Analyses utilize the main database on reported BSE cases in the British cattle herd maintained by the Central Veterinary Laboratory in Weybridge to trace the dams of BSE-affected animals born following the ruminant feed ban in July 1988. The data reveal a significantly enhanced risk of disease in calves born to BSE-affected dams, with the risk being greatest when birth occurs after the onset of clinical signs of disease in the dam. The dependence of the maternally enhanced risk on the maternal incubation stage at birth argues for a significant component of direct maternal transmission of the aetiological agent of BSE, and offers little support for the hypothesis of genetic predisposition. Using a statistical likelihood model, we obtain estimates of the rate of direct maternal transmission by maternal incubation stage; however, biases in the available data make these values minimum estimates.
Donnelly CA, Ferguson NM, Ghani AC, et al., 1997, The epidemiology of BSE in cattle herds in Great Britain. I. Epidemiological processes, demography of cattle and approaches to control by culling, Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci, Vol: 352, Pages: 781-801, ISSN: 0962-8436
This paper explores the key epidemiological processes and demographic factors that determined the pattern of transmission of the aetiological agent of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in cattle herds in Great Britain (GB). The analyses presented utilize data from published and unpublished experimental studies and from the GB central database of confirmed BSE cases. We review the experimental and epidemiological evidence that has both confirmed indirect horizontal transmission via the consumption of infectious material as the major transmission route and provided information on the duration and variability of the dose-dependent incubation period of BSE in cattle. The epidemiological and genetic data pertaining to the possible existence of maternal transmission and/or genetically variable susceptibility to infection is discussed. The demography of British cattle is characterized and the impacts of key demographic features on the observed epidemic profile are discussed. In the main BSE case database, analyses reveal that BSE cases cluster significantly at both the holding and county scale. Furthermore, analysis of longitudinal patterns reveal substantial temporal within-holding correlation. Such clustering of cases suggests a highly heterogeneous infection process. The paper ends with a discussion of how analyses of spatio-temporal clustering inform the design of targeted culling programmes aimed at reducing future disease incidence. We show how the retrospective implementation of culling policies on the BSE case database allows the qualitative evaluation of policy performance, but that model predictions of future trends in case incidence are required to estimate the precise impact of any current or future programme.
Donnelly CA, Ghani AC, Ferguson NM, et al., 1997, Recent trends in the BSE epidemic, Nature, Vol: 389, ISSN: 0028-0836
Gregson S, Donnelly C, Parker CG, et al., 1996, Demographic approaches to the estimation of incidence of HIV-1 infection among adults from age-specific prevalence data in stable endemic conditions, AIDS, Vol: 10, Pages: 1689-1697, ISSN: 0269-9370
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- Citations: 42
Phillips CI, Donnelly CA, Clayton RM, et al., 1996, Skin disease and age-related cataract, ACTA DERMATO-VENEREOLOGICA, Vol: 76, Pages: 314-318, ISSN: 0001-5555
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- Citations: 4
Phillips CI, Clayton RM, Cuthbert J, et al., 1996, Human cataract risk factors: Significance of abstention from, and high consumption of, Ethanol (U-curve) and non-significance of smoking, OPHTHALMIC RESEARCH, Vol: 28, Pages: 237-247, ISSN: 0030-3747
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- Citations: 17
Anderson RM, Donnelly CA, Ferguson NM, et al., 1996, Transmission dynamics and epidemiology of BSE in British cattle, Nature, Vol: 382, Pages: 779-788, ISSN: 0028-0836
A comprehensive analysis of the bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) epidemic in cattle in Great Britain assesses past, present and future patterns in the incidence of infection and disease, and allows a critical appraisal of different culling policies for eradication of the disease.
DONNELLY CA, 1995, THE SPATIAL-ANALYSIS OF COVARIATES IN A STUDY OF ENVIRONMENTAL EPIDEMIOLOGY, STATISTICS IN MEDICINE, Vol: 14, Pages: 2393-2409, ISSN: 0277-6715
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- Citations: 1
DONNELLY CA, SETH J, CLAYTON RM, et al., 1995, SOME BLOOD-PLASMA CONSTITUENTS CORRELATE WITH HUMAN CATARACT, BRITISH JOURNAL OF OPHTHALMOLOGY, Vol: 79, Pages: 1036-1041, ISSN: 0007-1161
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- Citations: 27
Donnelly CA, Laird NM, Ware JH, 1995, Prediction and creation of smooth curves for temporally correlated longitudinal data, Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol: 90, Pages: 984-989, ISSN: 0162-1459
This article presents a method of obtaining smoothed curves for a sample of individuals that permits an arbitrary number and spacing of observations for each individual. We consider the case where each individual’s curve cannot be separately estimated because either the ni’s are too small or no suitable parametric forms for the random effects are available. The model assumes a parametric form for the population mean curve and the correlation of the repeated measures. The assumed correlation structure is evaluated using the empirical semivariogram, a function of the sum of the squared differences of within-individual residuals. A method is proposed to validate the form and stationarity of the correlation structure. Maximum likelihood estimates for the population mean parameters and variance components are obtained simultaneously. These estimates may be used to create a semiparametric differentiable curve and to predict future values for each individual using a method called kriging. This method also yields instantaneous estimates of growth velocity. An example of this method is presented, and connections to kriging are discussed. © 1995 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.
Donnelly CA, Ware JH, Laird NM, 1994, 19 Regression analysis of spatially correlated data: The kanawha county health study
We describe a linear regression model for a spatially correlated dependent variable when a covariate is also spatially correlated and measured with error. Maximum likelihood estimates and likelihood-based confidence intervals for the regression parameters of the linear model are obtained and the method is extended to logistic regression analysis of grouped binomial data by methods analogous to empirical logistic regression. When the independent variable is spatially correlated, the measurement error variance and the other parameters of the regression model can be estimated without additional assumptions or data. The methods are used to characterize the association between outdoor concentrations of volatile organic compounds and respiratory health of school-children attending 73 elementary schools in Kanawha County, West Virginia. Results are compared to those from two-stage estimation procedures in which the dependent variable is regressed on the expectation of the true covariate conditional on the observed covariate values. © 1994 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
DONNELLY C, LEISENRING W, KANKI P, et al., 1993, COMPARISON OF TRANSMISSION RATES OF HIV-1 AND HIV-2 IN A COHORT OF PROSTITUTES IN SENEGAL, BULLETIN OF MATHEMATICAL BIOLOGY, Vol: 55, Pages: 731-743, ISSN: 0092-8240
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- Citations: 33
KANKI P, MBOUP S, MARLINK R, et al., 1992, PREVALENCE AND RISK DETERMINANTS OF HUMAN-IMMUNODEFICIENCY-VIRUS TYPE-2 (HIV-2) AND HUMAN-IMMUNODEFICIENCY-VIRUS TYPE-1 (HIV-1) IN WEST AFRICAN FEMALE PROSTITUTES, AMERICAN JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY, Vol: 136, Pages: 895-907, ISSN: 0002-9262
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- Citations: 81
Laird NM, Donnelly C, Ware JH, 1992, Longitudinal studies with continuous responses., Stat Methods Med Res, Vol: 1, Pages: 225-247, ISSN: 0962-2802
The analysis of serial measurements obtained in longitudinal studies plays an increasingly prominent role in applied research. The last few years have seen the development of many new techniques for carrying out analyses, including computer software. These methods can be used in a variety of standard problems, including repeated measures and cross-over designs, as well as growth curve analyses. We review these new methods, their application, and available computer packages. Data from a longitudinal study of lung function is used to illustrate the methods.
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