Imperial College London
Alternate

ProfessorChristopheFraser

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Visiting Professor
 
 
 
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Contact

 

c.fraser Website

 
 
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Location

 

G28Norfolk PlaceSt Mary's Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Panovska-Griffiths:2022:10.1101/2021.12.30.21267090,
author = {Panovska-Griffiths, J and Swallow, B and Hinch, R and Cohen, J and Rosenfeld, K and Stuart, RM and Ferretti, L and Lauro, FD and Wymant, C and Izzo, A and Waites, W and Viner, R and Bonell, C and Fraser, C and Klein, D and Kerr, CC},
doi = {10.1101/2021.12.30.21267090},
title = {Statistical and agent-based modelling of the transmissibility of different SARS-CoV-2 variants in England and impact of different interventions},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2021.12.30.21267090},
year = {2022}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - <jats:p>The English SARS-CoV-2 epidemic has been affected by the emergence of new viral variants such as B.1.177, Alpha and Delta, and changing restrictions. We used statistical models and calibration of an stochastic agent-based model Covasim to estimate B.1.177 to be 20% more transmissible than the wild type, Alpha to be 50-80% more transmissible than B.1.177 and Delta to be 65-90% more transmissible than Alpha. We used these estimates in Covasim (calibrated between September 01, 2020 and June 20, 2021), in June 2021, to explore whether planned relaxation of restrictions should proceed or be delayed. We found that due to the high transmissibility of Delta, resurgence in infections driven by the Delta variant would not be prevented, but would be strongly reduced by delaying the relaxation of restrictions by one month and with continued vaccination.</jats:p>
AU  - Panovska-Griffiths,J
AU  - Swallow,B
AU  - Hinch,R
AU  - Cohen,J
AU  - Rosenfeld,K
AU  - Stuart,RM
AU  - Ferretti,L
AU  - Lauro,FD
AU  - Wymant,C
AU  - Izzo,A
AU  - Waites,W
AU  - Viner,R
AU  - Bonell,C
AU  - Fraser,C
AU  - Klein,D
AU  - Kerr,CC
DO  - 10.1101/2021.12.30.21267090
PY  - 2022///
TI  - Statistical and agent-based modelling of the transmissibility of different SARS-CoV-2 variants in England and impact of different interventions
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/2021.12.30.21267090
ER  -
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