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@article{Perez:2023:10.1038/s41467-023-39661-5,
author = {Perez, Guzman PN and Knock, ES and Imai, N and Rawson, T and Elmaci, Y and Alcada, J and Whittles, LK and Thekke, Kanapram D and Sonabend, R and Gaythorpe, KAM and Hinsley, W and Fitzjohn, RG and Volz, E and Verity, R and Ferguson, NM and Cori, A and Baguelin, M},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-023-39661-5},
journal = {Nature Communications},
pages = {1--9},
title = {Epidemiological drivers of transmissibility and severity of SARS-CoV-2 in England},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-39661-5},
volume = {14},
year = {2023}
}

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TY  - JOUR
AB  - As the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic progressed, distinct variants emerged and dominated in England. These variants, Wildtype, Alpha, Delta, and Omicron were characterized by variations in transmissibility and severity. We used a robust mathematical model and Bayesian inference framework to analyse epidemiological surveillance data from England. We quantified the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), therapeutics, and vaccination on virus transmission and severity. Each successive variant had a higher intrinsic transmissibility. Omicron (BA.1) had the highest basic reproduction number at 8.3 (95% credible interval (CrI) 7.7-8.8). Varying levels of NPIs were crucial in controlling virus transmission until population immunity accumulated. Immune escape properties of Omicron decreased effective levels of immunity in the population by a third. Furthermore, in contrast to previous studies, we found Alpha had the highest basic infection fatality ratio (2.9%, 95% CrI 2.7-3.2), followed by Delta (2.2%, 95% CrI 2.0–2.4), Wildtype (1.2%, 95% CrI 1.1–1.2), and Omicron (0.7%, 95% CrI 0.6-0.8). Our findings highlight the importance of continued surveillance. Long-term strategies for monitoring and maintaining effective immunity against SARS-CoV-2 are critical to inform the role of NPIs to effectively manage future variants with potentially higher intrinsic transmissibility and severe outcomes.
AU  - Perez,Guzman PN
AU  - Knock,ES
AU  - Imai,N
AU  - Rawson,T
AU  - Elmaci,Y
AU  - Alcada,J
AU  - Whittles,LK
AU  - Thekke,Kanapram D
AU  - Sonabend,R
AU  - Gaythorpe,KAM
AU  - Hinsley,W
AU  - Fitzjohn,RG
AU  - Volz,E
AU  - Verity,R
AU  - Ferguson,NM
AU  - Cori,A
AU  - Baguelin,M
DO  - 10.1038/s41467-023-39661-5
EP  - 9
PY  - 2023///
SN  - 2041-1723
SP  - 1
TI  - Epidemiological drivers of transmissibility and severity of SARS-CoV-2 in England
T2  - Nature Communications
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-39661-5
UR  - https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-39661-5
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/105229
VL  - 14
ER  -

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