Imperial College London

ProfessorMajidEzzati

Faculty of MedicineSchool of Public Health

Chair in Global Environmental Health
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 0767majid.ezzati Website

 
 
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Location

 

Norfolk PlaceSt Mary's Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Publication Type
Year
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339 results found

Zhou B, Lu Y, Hajifathalian K, Bentham J, Di Cesare M, Danaei G, Bixby H, Cowan MJ, Ali MK, Taddei C, Lo W-C, Reis-Santos B, Stevens GA, Riley LM, Miranda JJ, Bjerregaard P, Rivera JA, Fouad HM, Ma G, Mbanya JCN, McGarvey ST, Mohan V, Onat A, Ramachandran A, Ben Romdhane H, Paciorek CJ, Bennett JE, Ezzati M, Abdeen ZA, Kadir KA, Abu-Rmeileh NM, Acosta-Cazares B, Adams R, Aekplakorn W, Aguilar-Salinas CA, Agyemang C, Ahmadvand A, Al-Othman AR, Alkerwi A, Amouyel P, Amuzu A, Andersen LB, Anderssen SA, Anjana RM, Aounallah-Skhiri H, Aris T, Arlappa N, Arveiler D, Assah FK, Avdicova M, Azizi F, Balakrishna N, Bandosz P, Barbagallo CM, Barcelo A, Batieha AM, Baur LA, Ben Romdhane H, Benet M, Bernabe-Ortiz A, Bharadwaj S, Bhargava SK, Bi Y, Bjerregaard P, Bjertness E, Bjertness MB, Bjorkelund C, Blokstra A, Bo S, Boehm BO, Boissonnet CP, Bovet P, Brajkovich I, Breckenkamp J, Brenner H, Brewster LM, Brian GR, Bruno G, Bugge A, Cabrera de Leon A, Can G, Candido APC, Capuano V, Carlsson AC, Carvalho MJ, Casanueva FF, Casas J-P, Caserta CA, Castetbon K, Chamukuttan S, Chaturvedi N, Chen C-J, Chen F, Chen S, Cheng C-Y, Chetrit A, Chiou S-T, Cho Y, Chudek J, Cifkova R, Claessens F, Concin H, Cooper C, Cooper R, Costanzo S, Cottel D, Cowell C, Crujeiras AB, D'Arrigo G, Dallongeville J, Dankner R, Dauchet L, de Gaetano G, De Henauw S, Deepa M, Dehghan A, Deschamps V, Dhana K, Di Castelnuovo AF, Djalalinia S, Doua K, Drygas W, Du Y, Dzerve V, Egbagbe EE, Eggertsen R, El Ati J, Elosua R, Erasmus RT, Erem C, Ergor G, Eriksen L, Escobedo-de la Pena J, Fall CH, Farzadfar F, Felix-Redondo FJ, Ferguson TS, Fernandez-Berges D, Ferrari M, Ferreccio C, Feskens EJM, Finn JD, Foeger B, Foo LH, Forslund A-S, Fouad HM, Francis DK, Franco MDC, Franco OH, Frontera G, Furusawa T, Gaciong Z, Garnett SP, Gaspoz J-M, Gasull M, Gates L, Geleijnse JM, Ghasemian A, Ghimire A, Giampaoli S, Gianfagna F, Giovannelli J, Giwercman A, Gonzalez Gross M, Gonzalez Rivas JP, Bonet Gorbea M, Gottrand F, Grafnetteet al., 2016, Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980: a pooled analysis of 751 population-based studies with 4·4 million participants, Lancet, Vol: 387, Pages: 1513-1530, ISSN: 1474-547X

BackgroundOne of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the age-standardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are affecting the number of adults with diabetes.MethodsWe pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes prevalence—defined as fasting plasma glucose of 7·0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs—in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes target if post-2000 trends continue.FindingsWe used data from 751 studies including 4 372 000 adults from 146 of the 200 countries we make estimates for. Global age-standardised diabetes prevalence increased from 4·3% (95% credible interval 2·4–7·0) in 1980 to 9·0% (7·2–11·1) in 2014 in men, and from 5·0% (2·9–7·9) to 7·9% (6·4–9·7) in women. The number of adults with diabetes in the world increased from 108 million in 1980 to 422 million in 2014 (28·5% due to the rise in prevalence, 39·7% due to population growth and ageing, and 31·8% due to interaction of these two factors). Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence in 2014 was lowest in northwestern Europe, and highest in Polynesia and Micronesia, at nearly 25%, followed by Melanesia and the Middle East and north Africa. Between 1980 and 2014 there was little change in age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adult women in continental western Europe, although crude prevalenc

Journal article

Di Cesare M, Bentham J, Stevens GA, Zhou B, Danaei G, Lu Y, Bixby H, Cowan MJ, Riley LM, Hajifathalian K, Fortunato L, Taddei C, Bennett JE, Ikeda N, Khang Y-H, Kyobutungi C, Laxmaiah A, Li Y, Lin H-H, Miranda JJ, Mostafa A, Turley ML, Paciorek CJ, Gunter M, Ezzati M, Abdeen ZA, Hamid ZA, Abu-Rmeileh NM, Acosta-Cazares B, Adams R, Aekplakorn W, Aguilar-Salinas CA, Ahmadvand A, Ahrens W, Ali MM, Alkerwi A, Alvarez-Pedrerol M, Aly E, Amouyel P, Amuzu A, Andersen LB, Anderssen SA, Andrade DS, Anjana RM, Aounallah-Skhiri H, Ariansen I, Aris T, Arlappa N, Arveiler D, Assah FK, Avdicova M, Azizi F, Babu BV, Balakrishna N, Bandosz P, Banegas JR, Barbagallo CM, Barcelo A, Barkat A, Barros MV, Bata I, Batieha AM, Batista RL, Baur LA, Beaglehole R, Ben Romdhane H, Benet M, Bernabe-Ortiz A, Bernotiene G, Bettiol H, Bhagyalaxmi A, Bharadwaj S, Bhargava SK, Bhatti Z, Bhutta ZA, Bi H, Bi Y, Bjerregaard P, Bjertness E, Bjertness MB, Bjorkelund C, Blake M, Blokstra A, Bo S, Bobak M, Boddy LM, Boehm BO, Boeing H, Boissonnet CP, Bongard V, Bovet P, Braeckman L, Bragt MCE, Brajkovich I, Branca F, Breckenkamp J, Brenner H, Brewster LM, Brian GR, Bruno G, Bueno-de-Mesquita HBA, Bugge A, Burns C, Cabrera de Leon A, Cacciottolo J, Cama T, Cameron C, Camolas J, Can G, Candido APC, Capuano V, Cardoso VC, Carvalho MJ, Casanueva FF, Casas J-P, Caserta CA, Castetbon K, Chamukuttan S, Chan AW, Chan Q, Chaturvedi HK, Chaturvedi N, Chen C-J, Chen F, Chen H, Chen S, Chen Z, Cheng C-Y, Chetrit A, Chiolero A, Chiou S-T, Chirita-Emandi A, Cho Y, Christensen K, Chudek J, Cifkova R, Claessens F, Clays E, Concin H, Cooper C, Cooper R, Coppinger TC, Costanzo S, Cottel D, Cowell C, Craig CL, Crujeiras AB, D'Arrigo G, d'Orsi E, Dallongeville J, Damasceno A, Damsgaard CT, Danaei G, Dankner R, Dauchet L, De Backer G, De Bacquer D, de Gaetano G, De Henauw S, De Smedt D, Deepa M, Deev AD, Dehghan A, Delisle H, Delpeuch F, Dhana K, Di Castelnuovo AF, Dias-da-Costa JS, Diaz A, Djalalinia S, Do HTP, Dobson AJ, Doet al., 2016, Trends in adult body-mass index in 200 countries from 1975 to 2014: a pooled analysis of 1698 population-based measurement studies with 19.2 million participants, Lancet, Vol: 387, Pages: 1377-1396, ISSN: 1474-547X

BackgroundUnderweight and severe and morbid obesity are associated with highly elevated risks of adverse health outcomes. We estimated trends in mean body-mass index (BMI), which characterises its population distribution, and in the prevalences of a complete set of BMI categories for adults in all countries.MethodsWe analysed, with use of a consistent protocol, population-based studies that had measured height and weight in adults aged 18 years and older. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to these data to estimate trends from 1975 to 2014 in mean BMI and in the prevalences of BMI categories (<18·5 kg/m2 [underweight], 18·5 kg/m2 to <20 kg/m2, 20 kg/m2 to <25 kg/m2, 25 kg/m2 to <30 kg/m2, 30 kg/m2 to <35 kg/m2, 35 kg/m2 to <40 kg/m2, ≥40 kg/m2 [morbid obesity]), by sex in 200 countries and territories, organised in 21 regions. We calculated the posterior probability of meeting the target of halting by 2025 the rise in obesity at its 2010 levels, if post-2000 trends continue.FindingsWe used 1698 population-based data sources, with more than 19·2 million adult participants (9·9 million men and 9·3 million women) in 186 of 200 countries for which estimates were made. Global age-standardised mean BMI increased from 21·7 kg/m2 (95% credible interval 21·3–22·1) in 1975 to 24·2 kg/m2 (24·0–24·4) in 2014 in men, and from 22·1 kg/m2 (21·7–22·5) in 1975 to 24·4 kg/m2 (24·2–24·6) in 2014 in women. Regional mean BMIs in 2014 for men ranged from 21·4 kg/m2 in central Africa and south Asia to 29·2 kg/m2 (28·6–29·8) in Polynesia and Micronesia; for women the range was from 21·8 kg/m2 (21·4–22·3) in south Asia to 32·2 kg/m2 (31·5–32·8) in Polynesia and Micronesia. Over these four decades, age-standardised global prevalence of un

Journal article

Otto MCDO, Afshin A, Micha R, Khatibzadeh S, Fahimi S, Singh G, Danaei G, Sichieri R, Monteiro CA, Louzada MLC, Ezzati M, Mozaffarian Det al., 2016, The Impact of Dietary and Metabolic Risk Factors on Cardiovascular Diseases and Type 2 Diabetes Mortality in Brazil, PLOS One, Vol: 11, ISSN: 1932-6203

BackgroundTrends in food availability and metabolic risk factors in Brazil suggest a shift toward unhealthy dietary patterns and increased cardiometabolic disease risk, yet little is known about the impact of dietary and metabolic risk factors on cardiometabolic mortality in Brazil.MethodsBased on data from Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study, we used comparative risk assessment to estimate the burden of 11 dietary and 4 metabolic risk factors on mortality due to cardiovascular diseases and diabetes in Brazil in 2010. Information on national diets and metabolic risks were obtained from the Brazilian Household Budget Survey, the Food and Agriculture Organization database, and large observational studies including Brazilian adults. Relative risks for each risk factor were obtained from meta-analyses of randomized trials or prospective cohort studies; and disease-specific mortality from the GBD 2010 database. We quantified uncertainty using probabilistic simulation analyses, incorporating uncertainty in dietary and metabolic data and relative risks by age and sex. Robustness of findings was evaluated by sensitivity to varying feasible optimal levels of each risk factor.ResultsIn 2010, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) and suboptimal diet were the largest contributors to cardiometabolic deaths in Brazil, responsible for 214,263 deaths (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 195,073 to 233,936) and 202,949 deaths (95% UI: 194,322 to 211,747), respectively. Among individual dietary factors, low intakes of fruits and whole grains and high intakes of sodium were the largest contributors to cardiometabolic deaths. For premature cardiometabolic deaths (before age 70 years, representing 40% of cardiometabolic deaths), the leading risk factors were suboptimal diet (104,169 deaths; 95% UI: 99,964 to 108,002), high SBP (98,923 deaths; 95%UI: 92,912 to 104,609) and high body-mass index (BMI) (42,643 deaths; 95%UI: 40,161 to 45,111).Conclusionsuboptimal diet, high SBP, and high BMI are m

Journal article

Wylie BJ, Kishashu Y, Matechi E, Zhou Z, Coull B, Abioye AI, Dionisio KL, Mugusi F, Premji Z, Fawzi W, Hauser R, Ezzati Met al., 2016, Maternal exposure to carbon monoxide and fine particulate matter during pregnancy in an urban Tanzanian cohort, INDOOR AIR, Vol: 27, Pages: 136-146, ISSN: 0905-6947

Journal article

Finlay JE, Fink G, McCoy DC, Tavárez LC, Chai J, Danaei G, Ezzati M, Fawzi W, Fawzi MCet al., 2016, Stunting risk of orphans by caregiver and living arrangement in low-income and middle-income countries., Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, Vol: 70, Pages: 784-790, ISSN: 1470-2738

BACKGROUND: An estimated 151 million children worldwide have lost one or both parents (UNICEF). Although a considerable literature has documented the impact of parental loss on children's emotional development, to date there are mixed findings regarding the potential effect of orphanhood on children's physical growth. The aim of the study is to examine the association between orphanhood (maternal, paternal or both) on childhood stunting status, accounting for living arrangement. METHODS: We combine nationally representative data from 84 Demographic Health Surveys for 49 low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). Data from 222 690 children aged 0-23 months were included in the analytical sample. We show pooled estimates from multiple analysis models, as well as models examining the role of the surviving parent's residence and household structure. RESULTS: In fully adjusted models, maternal orphans were found to have an increased risk of stunting (RR 1.3, 95% CI 1.2 to 1.4) compared to children with two living parents. The stratified models demonstrated that the greatest risk was observed for maternal orphans whose surviving fathers did not live with the child (RR 1.4, 95% CI 1.3 to 1.6). CONCLUSIONS: Early orphanhood constitutes a major risk for children's physical development in LMICs. However, the results suggest that the adverse effects of a parental loss can be mitigated if appropriate support is provided, indicating the potential benefits of the surviving parents staying with their children. The benefits of targeted social policies aimed at single fathers and grandparents supporting orphans may be significant.

Journal article

Wang Q, Afshin A, Yakoob MY, Singh GM, Rehm CD, Khatibzadeh S, Micha R, Shi P, Mozaffarian D, Global Burden of Diseases Nutrition and Chronic Diseases Expert Group NutriCoDEet al., 2016, Impact of Nonoptimal Intakes of Saturated, Polyunsaturated, and Trans Fat on Global Burdens of Coronary Heart Disease., Journal of the American Heart Association, Vol: 5, ISSN: 2047-9980

BACKGROUND: Saturated fat (SFA), ω-6 (n-6) polyunsaturated fat (PUFA), and trans fat (TFA) influence risk of coronary heart disease (CHD), but attributable CHD mortalities by country, age, sex, and time are unclear. METHODS AND RESULTS: National intakes of SFA, n-6 PUFA, and TFA were estimated using a Bayesian hierarchical model based on country-specific dietary surveys; food availability data; and, for TFA, industry reports on fats/oils and packaged foods. Etiologic effects of dietary fats on CHD mortality were derived from meta-analyses of prospective cohorts and CHD mortality rates from the 2010 Global Burden of Diseases study. Absolute and proportional attributable CHD mortality were computed using a comparative risk assessment framework. In 2010, nonoptimal intakes of n-6 PUFA, SFA, and TFA were estimated to result in 711 800 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 680 700-745 000), 250 900 (95% UI 236 900-265 800), and 537 200 (95% UI 517 600-557 000) CHD deaths per year worldwide, accounting for 10.3% (95% UI 9.9%-10.6%), 3.6%, (95% UI 3.5%-3.6%) and 7.7% (95% UI 7.6%-7.9%) of global CHD mortality. Tropical oil-consuming countries were estimated to have the highest proportional n-6 PUFA- and SFA-attributable CHD mortality, whereas Egypt, Pakistan, and Canada were estimated to have the highest proportional TFA-attributable CHD mortality. From 1990 to 2010 globally, the estimated proportional CHD mortality decreased by 9% for insufficient n-6 PUFA and by 21% for higher SFA, whereas it increased by 4% for higher TFA, with the latter driven by increases in low- and middle-income countries. CONCLUSIONS: Nonoptimal intakes of n-6 PUFA, TFA, and SFA each contribute to significant estimated CHD mortality, with important heterogeneity across countries that informs nation-specific clinical, public health, and policy priorities.

Journal article

Ezzati M, Bennett JE, Black RE, Bhutta ZA, Fawzi Wet al., 2016, Vitamin A deficiency: policy implications of estimates of trends and mortality in children, Lancet Global Health, Vol: 4, Pages: E22-E22, ISSN: 2214-109X

Journal article

Wang Q, Afshin A, Yakoob MY, Singh GM, Rehm CD, Khatibzadeh S, Micha R, Shi P, Mozaffarian D, Ezzati M, Fahimi S, Wirojratana P, Powles J, Elmadfa I, Rao M, Alpert W, Lim SS, Engell RE, Andrews KG, Abbott PA, Abdollahi M, Abeyá Gilardon EO, Ahsan H, Al Nsour MAA, Al-Hooti SN, Arambepola C, Fernando DN, Barennes H, Barquera S, Baylin A, Becker W, Bjerregaard P, Bourne LT, Capanzana MV, Castetbon K, Chang HY, Chen Y, Cowan MJ, Riley LM, De Henauw S, Ding EL, Duante CA, Duran P, Barbieri HE, Farzadfar F, Hadziomeragic AF, Fisberg RM, Forsyth S, Garriguet D, Gaspoz JM, Gauci D, Calleja N, Ginnela BNV, Guessous I, Gulliford MC, Hadden W, Haerpfer C, Hoffman DJ, Houshiar-Rad A, Huybrechts I, Hwalla NC, Ibrahim HM, Inoue M, Jackson MD, Johansson L, Keinan-Boker L, Kim CI, Koksal E, Lee HJ, Li Y, Lipoeto NI, Ma G, Mangialavori GL, Matsumura Y, McGarvey ST, Fen CM, Monge-Rojas RA, Musaiger AO, Nagalla B, Naska A, Ocke MC, Oltarzewski M, Szponar L, Orfanos P, Ovaskainen ML, Tapanainen H, Pan WH, Panagiotakos DB, Pekcan GA, Petrova S, Piaseu N, Pitsavos C, Posada LG, Sánchez-Romero LM, Selamat RBT, Sharma S, Sibai AM, Sichieri R, Simmala C, Steingrimsdottir Let al., 2016, Correction to: Impact of nonoptimal intakes of saturated, polyunsaturated, and trans fat on global burdens of coronary heart disease. [J Am Heart Assoc. (2016) 5, e002891.] Doi:10.1161/JAHA.115.002891., Journal of the American Heart Association, Vol: 5, Pages: 1-1

© 2016 The Authors. In the article by Wang et al, "Impact of Nonoptimal Intakes of Saturated, Polyunsaturated, and Trans Fat on Global Burdens of Coronary Heart Disease," which published online January 20, 2016, and appeared in the January 2016 issue of the journal (J Am Heart Assoc. 2016;5:e002891 doi:10.1161/ JAHA.115.002891), the full list of the Global Burden of Diseases Nutrition and Chronic Diseases Expert Group (NutriCoDE) group were erroneously listed as authors in the HTML version of the article. The publisher regrets the error. The online version of the article has been updated and is available at http://jaha.ahajournals.org/content/5/1/ e002891.

Journal article

Ruel-Bergeron JC, Stevens GA, Sugimoto JD, Roos FF, Ezzati M, Black RE, Kraemer Ket al., 2015, Global Update and Trends of Hidden Hunger, 1995-2011: The Hidden Hunger Index, PLOS One, Vol: 10, ISSN: 1932-6203

BackgroundDeficiencies in essential vitamins and minerals–also termed hidden hunger–are pervasive and hold negative consequences for the cognitive and physical development of children.MethodsThis analysis evaluates the change in hidden hunger over time in the form of one composite indicator–the Hidden Hunger Index (HHI)–using an unweighted average of prevalence estimates from the Nutrition Impact Model Study for anemia due to iron deficiency, vitamin A deficiency, and stunting (used as a proxy indicator for zinc deficiency). Net changes from 1995–2011 and population weighted regional means for various time periods are measured.FindingsGlobally, hidden hunger improved (-6.7 net change in HHI) from 1995–2011. Africa was the only region to see a deterioration in hidden hunger (+1.9) over the studied time period; East Asia and the Pacific performed exceptionally well (-13.0), while other regions improved only slightly. Improvements in HHI were mostly due to reductions in zinc and vitamin A deficiencies, while anemia due to iron deficiency persisted and even increased.InterpretationThis analysis is critical for informing and tracking the impact of policy and programmatic efforts to reduce micronutrient deficiencies, to advance the global nutrition agenda, and to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). However, there remains an unmet need to invest in gathering frequent, nationally representative, high-quality micronutrient data as we renew our efforts to scale up nutrition, and as we enter the post-2015 development agenda.FundingPreparation of this manuscript was funded by Sight and Life. There was no funding involved in the study design, data collection, analysis, or decision to publish.

Journal article

Bennett JE, Li G, Kontis V, Foreman K, Ezzati Met al., 2015, Future inequalities in life expectancy in England and Wales Reply, Lancet, Vol: 386, Pages: 2391-2392, ISSN: 0140-6736

Journal article

Leon DA, Ezzati M, 2015, High cardiovascular mortality in Russia: role of alcohol versus smoking, blood pressure, and treatment REPLY, NATURE REVIEWS CARDIOLOGY, Vol: 12, ISSN: 1759-5002

Journal article

Sudfeld CR, McCoy DC, Fink G, Muhihi A, Bellinger DC, Masanja H, Smith ER, Danaei G, Ezzati M, Fawzi WWet al., 2015, Malnutrition and Its Determinants Are Associated with Suboptimal Cognitive, Communication, and Motor Development in Tanzanian Children, JOURNAL OF NUTRITION, Vol: 145, Pages: 2705-2714, ISSN: 0022-3166

Journal article

Arku RE, Dionisio KL, Hughes AF, Vallarino J, Spengler JD, Castro MC, Agyei-Mensah S, Ezzati Met al., 2015, Personal particulate matter exposures and locations of students in four neighborhoods in Accra, Ghana, JOURNAL OF EXPOSURE SCIENCE AND ENVIRONMENTAL EPIDEMIOLOGY, Vol: 25, Pages: 557-566, ISSN: 1559-0631

Journal article

Kozuki N, Katz J, Lee ACC, Vogel JP, Silveira MF, Sania A, Stevens GA, Cousens S, Caulfield LE, Christian P, Huybregts L, Roberfroid D, Schmiegelow C, Adair LS, Barrosi FC, Cowan M, Fawzi W, Kolsteren P, Merialdi M, Mongkolchati A, Saville N, Victora CG, Bhutta ZA, Blencowe H, Ezzati M, Lawn JE, Black REet al., 2015, Short Maternal Stature Increases Risk of Small-for-Gestational-Age and Preterm Births in Low-and Middle-Income Countries: Individual Participant Data Meta-Analysis and Population Attributable Fraction, JOURNAL OF NUTRITION, Vol: 145, Pages: 2542-2550, ISSN: 0022-3166

Journal article

Kontis V, Mathers CD, Bonita R, Stevens GA, Rehm J, Shield KD, Riley LM, Poznyak V, Jabbour S, Garg RM, Hennis A, Fouad HM, Beaglehole R, Ezzati Met al., 2015, Regional contributions of six preventable risk factors to achieving the 25 × 25 non-communicable disease mortality reduction target: a modelling study, Lancet Global Health, Vol: 3, Pages: e746-e757, ISSN: 2214-109X

BackgroundCountries have agreed to reduce premature mortality from the four main non-communicable diseases (NCDs) by 25% from 2010 levels by 2025 (referred to as the 25 × 25 target). Countries also agreed on a set of global voluntary targets for selected NCD risk factors. Previous analyses have shown that achieving the risk factor targets can contribute substantially towards meeting the 25 × 25 mortality target at the global level. We estimated the contribution of achieving six of the globally agreed risk factor targets towards meeting the 25 × 25 mortality target by region.MethodsWe estimated the effect of achieving the targets for six risk factors (tobacco and alcohol use, salt intake, obesity, and raised blood pressure and glucose) on NCD mortality between 2010 and 2025. Our methods accounted for multicausality of NCDs and for the fact that, when risk factor exposure increases or decreases, the harmful or beneficial effects on NCDs accumulate gradually. We used data for risk factor and mortality trends from systematic analyses of available country data. Relative risks for the effects of individual and multiple risks, and for change in risk after decreases or increases in exposure, were from reanalyses and meta-analyses of epidemiological studies.FindingsThe probability of dying between the ages 30 years and 70 years from the four main NCDs in 2010 ranged from 19% in the region of the Americas to 29% in southeast Asia for men, and from 13% in Europe to 21% in southeast Asia for women. If current trends continue, the probability of dying prematurely from the four main NCDs is projected to increase in the African region but decrease in the other five regions. If the risk factor targets are achieved, the 25 × 25 target will be surpassed in Europe in both men and women, and will be achieved in women (and almost achieved in men) in the western Pacific; the regions of the Americas, the eastern Mediterranean, and southeast Asia will approach the t

Journal article

Pope CA, Ezzati M, Dockery DW, 2015, Tradeoffs between income, air pollution and life expectancy: Brief report on the US experience, 1980-2000, ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH, Vol: 142, Pages: 591-593, ISSN: 0013-9351

Journal article

Newton JN, Briggs ADM, Murray CJL, Dicker D, Foreman KJ, Wang H, Naghavi M, Forouzanfar MH, Ohno SL, Barber RM, Vos T, Stanaway JRD, Schmidt JC, Hughes AJ, Fay DFJ, Ecob R, Gresser C, McKee M, Rutter H, Abubakar I, Ali R, Anderson HR, Banerjee A, Bennett DA, Bernabe E, Bhui KS, Biryukov SM, Bourne RR, Brayne CEG, Bruce NG, Brugha TS, Burch M, Capewell S, Casey D, Chowdhury R, Coates MM, Cooper C, Critchley JA, Dargan PI, Dherani MK, Elliott P, Ezzati M, Fenton KA, Fraser MS, Fuerst T, Greaves F, Green MA, Gunnell DJ, Hannigan BM, Hay RJ, Hay SI, Hemingway H, Larson HJ, Looker KJ, Lunevicius R, Lyons RA, Marcenes W, Mason-Jones AJ, Matthews FE, Moller H, Murdoch ME, Newton CR, Pearce N, Piel FB, Pope D, Rahimi K, Rodriguez A, Scarborough P, Schumacher AE, Shiue I, Smeeth L, Tedstone A, Valabhji J, Williams HC, Wolfe CDA, Woolf AD, Davis ACJet al., 2015, Changes in health in England, with analysis by English regions and areas of deprivation, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013, Lancet, Vol: 386, Pages: 2257-2274, ISSN: 1474-547X

Journal article

Peet ED, McCoy DC, Danaei G, Ezzati M, Fawzi W, Jarvelin M-R, Pillas D, Fink Get al., 2015, Early Childhood Development and Schooling Attainment: Longitudinal Evidence from British, Finnish and Philippine Birth Cohorts, PLOS One, Vol: 10, ISSN: 1932-6203

BackgroundWhile recent literature has highlighted the importance of early childhood development for later life outcomes, comparatively little is known regarding the relative importance of early physical and cognitive development in predicting educational attainment cross-culturally.MethodsWe used prospective data from three birth cohorts: the Northern Finland Birth Cohort of 1986 (NFBC1986), the 1970 British Cohort Study (BCS1970), and the Cebu Longitudinal Health and Nutrition Survey of 1983 (CLHNS) to assess the association of height-for-age z-score (HAZ) and cognitive development measured prior to age 8 with schooling attainment. Multivariate linear regression models were used to estimate baseline and adjusted associations.ResultsBoth physical and cognitive development were highly predictive of adult educational attainment conditional on parental characteristics. The largest positive associations between physical development and schooling were found in the CLHNS (β = 0.53, 95%-CI: [0.32, 0.74]) with substantially smaller associations in the BCS1970 (β = 0.10, 95% CI [0.04, 0.16]) and the NFBC1986 (β = 0.06, 95% CI [-0.05, 0.16]). Strong associations between cognitive development and educational attainment were found for all three cohorts (NFBC1986: β = 0.22, 95%-CI: [0.12, 0.31], BCS1970: β = 0.58, 95%-CI: [0.52, 0.64], CLHNS: β = 1.08, 95%-CI: [0.88, 1.27]). Models jointly estimating educational associations of physical and cognitive development demonstrated weaker associations for physical development and minimal changes for cognitive development.ConclusionThe results indicate that although physical and cognitive early development are both important predictors of educational attainment, cognitive development appears to play a particularly important role. The large degree of heterogeneity in the observed effect sizes suggest that the importance of early life physical growth and cognitive development is highly dependent on socioecono

Journal article

Ezzati M, Obermeyer Z, Tzoulaki I, Mayosi BM, Elliott P, Leon DAet al., 2015, Contributions of risk factors and medical care to cardiovascular mortality trends, NATURE REVIEWS CARDIOLOGY, Vol: 12, Pages: 508-530, ISSN: 1759-5002

Journal article

Hogan DR, Danaei G, Ezzati M, Clarke PM, Jha AK, Salomon JAet al., 2015, Estimating The Potential Impact Of Insurance Expansion On Undiagnosed And Uncontrolled Chronic Conditions, HEALTH AFFAIRS, Vol: 34, Pages: 1554-1562, ISSN: 0278-2715

Journal article

Finucane MM, Paciorek CJ, Stevens GA, Ezzati Met al., 2015, Semiparametric Bayesian Density Estimation With Disparate Data Sources: A Meta-Analysis of Global Childhood Undernutrition, JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION, Vol: 110, Pages: 889-901, ISSN: 0162-1459

Journal article

Ali MK, Jaacks LM, Kowalski AJ, Siegel KR, Ezzati Met al., 2015, Noncommunicable Diseases: Three Decades Of Global Data Show A Mixture Of Increases And Decreases In Mortality Rates, HEALTH AFFAIRS, Vol: 34, Pages: 1444-1455, ISSN: 0278-2715

Journal article

Stevens GA, Bennett JE, Hennocq Q, Lu Y, De-Regil LM, Rogers L, Danaei G, Li G, White RA, Flaxman SR, Oehrle S-P, Finucane MM, Guerrero R, Bhutta ZA, Then-Paulino A, Fawzi W, Black RE, Ezzati Met al., 2015, Trends and mortality effects of vitamin A deficiency in children in 138 low-income and middle-income countries between 1991 and 2013: a pooled analysis of population-based surveys, Lancet Global Health, Vol: 3, Pages: e528-e536, ISSN: 2214-109X

Background: Vitamin A deficiency is a risk factor for blindness and for mortality from measles and diarrhoea in children aged 6–59 months. We aimed to estimate trends in the prevalence of vitamin A deficiency between 1991 and 2013 and its mortality burden in low-income and middle-income countries.Methods: We collated 134 population-representative data sources from 83 countries with measured serum retinol concentration data. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the prevalence of vitamin A deficiency, defined as a serum retinol concentration lower than 0·70 μmol/L. We estimated the relative risks (RRs) for the effects of vitamin A deficiency on mortality from measles and diarrhoea by pooling effect sizes from randomised trials of vitamin A supplementation. We used information about prevalences of deficiency, RRs, and number of cause-specific child deaths to estimate deaths attributable to vitamin A deficiency. All analyses included a systematic quantification of uncertainty.Findings: In 1991, 39% (95% credible interval 27–52) of children aged 6–59 months in low-income and middle-income countries were vitamin A deficient. In 2013, the prevalence of deficiency was 29% (17–42; posterior probability [PP] of being a true decline=0·81). Vitamin A deficiency significantly declined in east and southeast Asia and Oceania from 42% (19–70) to 6% (1–16; PP>0·99); a decline in Latin America and the Caribbean from 21% (11–33) to 11% (4–23; PP=0·89) also occurred. In 2013, the prevalence of deficiency was highest in sub-Saharan Africa (48%; 25–75) and south Asia (44%; 13–79). 94 500 (54 200–146 800) deaths from diarrhoea and 11 200 (4300–20 500) deaths from measles were attributable to vitamin A deficiency in 2013, which accounted for 1·7% (1·0–2·6) of all deaths in children younger than 5 years in low-income and middle-income countries. M

Journal article

Singh GM, Micha R, Khatibzadeh S, Lim S, Ezzati M, Mozaffarian Det al., 2015, Estimated Global, Regional, and National Disease Burdens Related to Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Consumption in 2010, CIRCULATION, Vol: 132, Pages: 639-666, ISSN: 0009-7322

Journal article

Singh GM, Micha R, Khatibzadeh S, Shi P, Lim S, Andrews KG, Engell RE, Ezzati M, Mozaffarian Det al., 2015, Global, Regional, and National Consumption of Sugar-Sweetened Beverages, Fruit Juices, and Milk: A Systematic Assessment of Beverage Intake in 187 Countries, PLOS One, Vol: 10, ISSN: 1932-6203

BackgroundSugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), fruit juice, and milk are components of diet of major public health interest. To-date, assessment of their global distributions and health impacts has been limited by insufficient comparable and reliable data by country, age, and sex.ObjectiveTo quantify global, regional, and national levels of SSB, fruit juice, and milk intake by age and sex in adults over age 20 in 2010.MethodsWe identified, obtained, and assessed data on intakes of these beverages in adults, by age and sex, from 193 nationally- or subnationally-representative diet surveys worldwide, representing over half the world’s population. We also extracted data relevant to milk, fruit juice, and SSB availability for 187 countries from annual food balance information collected by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization. We developed a hierarchical Bayesian model to account for measurement incomparability, study representativeness, and sampling and modeling uncertainty, and to combine and harmonize nationally representative dietary survey data and food availability data.ResultsIn 2010, global average intakes were 0.58 (95%UI: 0.37, 0.89) 8 oz servings/day for SSBs, 0.16 (0.10, 0.26) for fruit juice, and 0.57 (0.39, 0.83) for milk. There was significant heterogeneity in consumption of each beverage by region and age. Intakes of SSB were highest in the Caribbean (1.9 servings/day; 1.2, 3.0); fruit juice consumption was highest in Australia and New Zealand (0.66; 0.35, 1.13); and milk intake was highest in Central Latin America and parts of Europe (1.06; 0.68, 1.59). Intakes of all three beverages were lowest in East Asia and Oceania. Globally and within regions, SSB consumption was highest in younger adults; fruit juice consumption showed little relation with age; and milk intakes were highest in older adults.ConclusionsOur analysis highlights the enormous spectrum of beverage intakes worldwide, by country, age, and sex. These data are valuable for

Journal article

Dominici F, Wang Y, Correia AW, Ezzati M, Pope CA, Dockery DWet al., 2015, Chemical Composition of Fine Particulate Matter and Life Expectancy In 95 US Counties Between 2002 and 2007, EPIDEMIOLOGY, Vol: 26, Pages: 556-564, ISSN: 1044-3983

Journal article

Ezzati M, Danaei G, Fahimi S, Lu Y, Zhou B, Hajifathalian K, Di Cesare M, Lo W, Reis-Santos B, Cowan MJ, Shaw JE, Bentham J, Lin JK, Bixby H, Magliano D, Bovet P, Miranda JJ, Khang Y, Stevens GA, Riley LM, Ali MKet al., 2015, Effects of diabetes definition on global surveillance of diabetes prevalence and diagnosis: a pooled analysis of 96 population-based studies with 331 288 participants, The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology, Vol: 3, Pages: 624-637, ISSN: 2213-8587

Background: Over time, diabetes has been defined based on different biomarkers, includingfasting plasma glucose (FPG) or 2-hour plasma glucose in an oral glucose tolerance test (2hOGTT) and,more recently, haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c). We examined the influence of diagnostic definitions on boththe population prevalence of diabetes and the classification of previously-undiagnosed individuals aswith vs. without diabetes in a pooled analysis of data from population-based health examinationsurveys in different world regions.

Journal article

Shin HH, Cohen AJ, Pope CA, Ezzati M, Lim SS, Hubbell BJ, Burnett RTet al., 2015, Meta-Analysis Methods to Estimate the Shape and Uncertainty in the Association Between Long-Term Exposure to Ambient Fine Particulate Matter and Cause-Specific Mortality Over the Global Concentration Range, RISK ANALYSIS, Vol: 36, Pages: 1813-1825, ISSN: 0272-4332

Journal article

Sudfeld CR, Mccoy DC, Danaei G, Fink G, Ezzati M, Andrews KG, Fawzi WWet al., 2015, Linear Growth and Child Development in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Meta-Analysis, PEDIATRICS, Vol: 135, Pages: E1266-E1275, ISSN: 0031-4005

Journal article

Pan S-C, Ku C-C, Kao D, Ezzati M, Fang C-T, Lin H-Het al., 2015, Effect of diabetes on tuberculosis control in 13 countries with high tuberculosis: a modelling study, LANCET DIABETES & ENDOCRINOLOGY, Vol: 3, Pages: 323-330, ISSN: 2213-8587

Journal article

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