Publications
434 results found
Ghani AC, Sutherland CJ, Riley EM, et al., 2009, Loss of Population Levels of Immunity to Malaria as a Result of Exposure-Reducing Interventions: Consequences for Interpretation of Disease Trends, PLOS ONE, Vol: 4, ISSN: 1932-6203
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- Citations: 120
Maclntyre CR, Cauchemez S, Dwyer DE, et al., 2009, Face Mask Use and Control of Respiratory Virus Transmission in Households, EMERGING INFECTIOUS DISEASES, Vol: 15, Pages: 233-241, ISSN: 1080-6040
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- Citations: 296
Christophe Fraser, Christl AD, Cauchemez S, et al., 2009, Response, Science, Vol: 325, Pages: 1072-1073, ISSN: 0036-8075
Ghani A, Baguelin M, Griffin J, et al., 2009, The early transmission dynamics of H1N1pdm influenza in the United Kingdom, PLoS currents, Vol: 1
Pellis L, Ferguson NM, Fraser C, 2008, The relationship between real-time and discrete-generation models of epidemic spread, Mathematical Biosciences, Vol: 216, Pages: 63-70, ISSN: 0025-5564
Sharpe TD, Ferguson N, Johnson CM, et al., 2008, Conservation of Transition State Structure in Fast Folding Peripheral Subunit-Binding Domains, JOURNAL OF MOLECULAR BIOLOGY, Vol: 383, Pages: 224-237, ISSN: 0022-2836
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- Citations: 18
Parham PE, Singh BK, Ferguson NM, 2008, Analytic Approximation of Spatial Epidemic Models of Foot and Mouth Disease, THEOR POPUL BIOL, Vol: 73, Pages: 349-368, ISSN: 0040-5809
The effect of spatial heterogeneity in epidemic models has improved with computational advances, yet far less progress has been made in developing analytical tools for understanding such systems. Here, we develop two classes of second-order moment closure methods for approximating the dynamics of a stochastic spatial model of the spread of foot and mouth disease. We consider the performance of such 'pseudo-spatial' models as a function of R-0, the locality in disease transmission, farm distribution and geographically-targeted control when an arbitrary number of spatial kernels are incorporated. One advantage of mapping complex spatial models onto simpler deterministic approximations lies in the ability to potentially obtain a better analytical understanding of disease dynamics and the effects of control. We exploit this tractability by deriving analytical results in the invasion stages of an FMD outbreak, highlighting key principles underlying epidemic spread on contact networks and the effect of spatial correlations. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Abu-Raddad LJ, van der Ventel BIS, Ferguson NM, 2008, Interactions of multiple strain pathogen diseases in the presence of coinfection, cross immunity, and arbitrary strain diversity, PHYSICAL REVIEW LETTERS, Vol: 100, ISSN: 0031-9007
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- Citations: 16
Halloran ME, Ferguson NM, Eubank S, et al., 2008, Modeling targeted layered containment of an influenza pandemic in the United States, PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, Vol: 105, Pages: 4639-4644, ISSN: 0027-8424
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- Citations: 423
Cauchemez S, Valleron AJ, Boelle PY, et al., 2008, Estimating the impact of school closure on influenza transmission from sentinel data, Nature, Vol: 452, Pages: 750-754
Carrat F, Vergu E, Ferguson NM, et al., 2008, Time Lines of Infection and Disease in Human Influenza: A Review of Volunteer Challenge Studies, American Journal of Epidemiology
Dodd PJ, Ferguson NM, 2007, Approximate disease dynamics in household-structured populations, JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY INTERFACE, Vol: 4, Pages: 1103-1106, ISSN: 1742-5689
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- Citations: 12
Truscott J, Garske T, Chis-Ster I, et al., 2007, Control of a highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza outbreak in the GB poultry flock, PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES, Vol: 274, Pages: 2287-2295, ISSN: 0962-8452
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- Citations: 55
Hollingsworth TD, Ferguson NM, Anderson RM, 2007, Frequent travelers and rate of spread of epidemics., Emerg Infect Dis, Vol: 13, Pages: 1288-1294, ISSN: 1080-6040
A small proportion of air travelers make disproportionately more journeys than the rest of travelers. They also tend to interact predominantly with other frequent travelers in hotels and airport lounges. This group has the potential to accelerate global spread of infectious respiratory diseases. Using an epidemiologic model, we simulated exportation of cases from severe acute respiratory syndrome-like and influenza-like epidemics in a population for which a small proportion travel more frequently than the rest. Our simulations show that frequent travelers accelerate international spread of epidemics only if they are infected early in an outbreak and the outbreak does not expand rapidly. If the epidemic growth rate is high, as is likely for pandemic influenza, heterogeneities in travel are frequently overwhelmed by the large number of infected persons in the majority population and the resulting high probability that some of these persons will take an international flight.
Ster IC, Ferguson NM, 2007, Transmission Parameters of the 2001 Foot and Mouth Epidemic in Great Britain, PLOS ONE, Vol: 2, ISSN: 1932-6203
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- Citations: 79
Bootsma MCJ, Ferguson NM, 2007, The effect of public health measures on the 1918 influenza pandemic in U.S. cities., Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A, Vol: 104, Pages: 7588-7593, ISSN: 0027-8424
During the 1918 influenza pandemic, the U.S., unlike Europe, put considerable effort into public health interventions. There was also more geographic variation in the autumn wave of the pandemic in the U.S. compared with Europe, with some cities seeing only a single large peak in mortality and others seeing double-peaked epidemics. Here we examine whether differences in the public health measures adopted by different cities can explain the variation in epidemic patterns and overall mortality observed. We show that city-specific per-capita excess mortality in 1918 was significantly correlated with 1917 per-capita mortality, indicating some intrinsic variation in overall mortality, perhaps related to sociodemographic factors. In the subset of 23 cities for which we had partial data on the timing of interventions, an even stronger correlation was found between excess mortality and how early in the epidemic interventions were introduced. We then fitted an epidemic model to weekly mortality in 16 cities with nearly complete intervention-timing data and estimated the impact of interventions. The model reproduced the observed epidemic patterns well. In line with theoretical arguments, we found the time-limited interventions used reduced total mortality only moderately (perhaps 10-30%), and that the impact was often very limited because of interventions being introduced too late and lifted too early. San Francisco, St. Louis, Milwaukee, and Kansas City had the most effective interventions, reducing transmission rates by up to 30-50%. Our analysis also suggests that individuals reactively reduced their contact rates in response to high levels of mortality during the pandemic.
Bootsma MCJ, Ferguson NM, 2007, The effect of public health measures on the 1918 influenza pandemic in US cities, PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, Vol: 104, Pages: 7588-7593, ISSN: 0027-8424
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- Citations: 409
Kelly M, Ferguson N, Sutcliffe R, et al., 2007, Cardiac tamponade due to ingested gastric foreign body, EMERGENCY MEDICINE JOURNAL, Vol: 24, ISSN: 1472-0205
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- Citations: 4
Ferguson N, Sharpe TD, Johnson CM, et al., 2007, Structural biology - Analysis of 'downhill' protein folding, NATURE, Vol: 445, Pages: E14-E15, ISSN: 0028-0836
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- Citations: 41
Mac Ginty R, Muldoon OT, Ferguson N, 2007, No war, no peace: Northern Ireland after the agreement, POLITICAL PSYCHOLOGY, Vol: 28, Pages: 1-11, ISSN: 0162-895X
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- Citations: 81
Burgess M, Ferguson N, Hollywood I, 2007, Rebels' perspectives of the legacy of past violence and of the current peace in post-agreement Northern Ireland: An interpretative phenomenological analysis, POLITICAL PSYCHOLOGY, Vol: 28, Pages: 69-88, ISSN: 0162-895X
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- Citations: 21
Cauchemez S, Ferguson NM, 2007, Likelihood-based estimation of continuous-time epidemic models from time-series data: Application to measles transmission in London, Journal of the Royal Society Interface
Ferguson N, 2006, Poverty, death, and a future influenza pandemic, LANCET, Vol: 368, Pages: 2187-2188, ISSN: 0140-6736
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- Citations: 13
Parham PE, Ferguson NM, 2006, Space and Contact Networks: Capturing the Locality of Disease Transmission, J R SOC INTERFACE, Vol: 3, Pages: 483-493, ISSN: 1742-5689
While an arbitrary level of complexity may be included in simulations of spatial epidemics, computational intensity and analytical intractability mean that such models often lack transparency into the determinants of epidemiological dynamics. Although numerous approaches attempt to resolve this complexity tractability trade-off,moment closure methods arguably offer the most promising and robust frameworks for capturing the role of the locality of contact processes on global disease dynamics. While a close analogy may be made between full stochastic spatial transmission models and dynamic network models, we consider here the special case where the dynamics of the network topology change on time-scales much longer than the epidemiological processes imposed on them; in such cases, the use of static network models are justified. We show that in such cases, static network models may provide excellent approximations to the underlying spatial contact process through an appropriate choice of the effective neighbourhood size. We also demonstrate the robustness of this mapping by examining the equivalence of deterministic approximations to the full spatial and network models derived under third-order moment closure assumptions. For systems where deviation from homogeneous mixing is limited, we show that pair equations developed for network models are at least as good an approximation to the underlying stochastic spatial model as more complex spatial moment equations, with both classes of approximation becoming less accurate only for highly localized kernels.
Riley S, Ferguson NM, 2006, Smallpox transmission and control: spatial dynamics in Great Britain, Proc Natl Acad Sci USA, Vol: 103, Pages: 12637-12642
Ferguson NM, Cummings DAT, Fraser C, et al., 2006, Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic, NATURE, Vol: 442, Pages: 448-452, ISSN: 0028-0836
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- Citations: 1454
Hollingsworth TD, Ferguson NM, Anderson RM, 2006, Will travel restrictions control the international spread of pandemic influenza?, NATURE MEDICINE, Vol: 12, Pages: 497-499, ISSN: 1078-8956
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- Citations: 149
Baggaley RF, Garnett GP, Ferguson NM, 2006, Modelling the impact of antiretroviral use in resource-poor settings, PLOS MEDICINE, Vol: 3, Pages: 493-504, ISSN: 1549-1277
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- Citations: 127
Hagenaars TJ, Donnelly CA, Ferguson NM, 2006, Epidemiological analysis of data for scrapie in Great Britain, EPIDEMIOLOGY AND INFECTION, Vol: 134, Pages: 359-367, ISSN: 0950-2688
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- Citations: 12
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