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@article{Jacobs:2017:10.1161/JAHA.116.005231,
author = {Jacobs, L and Efremov, L and Ferreira, JP and Thijs, L and Yang, W-Y and Zhang, Z-Y and Latini, R and Masson, S and Agabiti, N and Sever, P and Delles, C and Sattar, N and Butler, J and Cleland, JGF and Kuznetsova, T and Staessen, JA and Zannad, F},
doi = {10.1161/JAHA.116.005231},
journal = {Journal of the American Heart Association},
title = {Risk for Incident Heart Failure: A Subject-Level Meta-Analysis From the Heart "OMics" in AGEing (HOMAGE) Study},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1161/JAHA.116.005231},
volume = {6},
year = {2017}
}

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TY  - JOUR
AB  - Background To address the need for personalized prevention, we conducted a subjectlevel metaanalysis within the framework of the Heart “OMics” in AGEing (HOMAGE) study to develop a risk prediction model for heart failure (HF) based on routinely available clinical measurements.Methods and Results Three studies with elderly persons (Health Aging and Body Composition [Health ABC], Valutazione della PREvalenza di DIsfunzione Cardiaca asinTOmatica e di scompenso cardiaco [PREDICTOR], and Prospective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk [PROSPER]) were included to develop the HF risk function, while a fourth study (AngloScandinavian Cardiac Outcomes Trial [ASCOT]) was used as a validation cohort. Timetoevent analysis was conducted using the Cox proportional hazard model. Incident HF was defined as HF hospitalization. The Cox regression model was evaluated for its discriminatory performance (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) and calibration (GrønnesbyBorgan χ2 statistic). During a followup of 3.5 years, 470 of 10 236 elderly persons (mean age, 74.5 years; 51.3% women) developed HF. Higher age, BMI, systolic blood pressure, heart rate, serum creatinine, smoking, diabetes mellitus, history of coronary artery disease, and use of antihypertensive medication were associated with increased HF risk. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the model was 0.71, with a good calibration (χ2 7.9, P=0.54). A webbased calculator was developed to allow easy calculations of the HF risk.Conclusions Simple measurements allow reliable estimation of the shortterm HF risk in populations and patients. The risk model may aid in risk stratification and future HF prevention strategies.
AU  - Jacobs,L
AU  - Efremov,L
AU  - Ferreira,JP
AU  - Thijs,L
AU  - Yang,W-Y
AU  - Zhang,Z-Y
AU  - Latini,R
AU  - Masson,S
AU  - Agabiti,N
AU  - Sever,P
AU  - Delles,C
AU  - Sattar,N
AU  - Butler,J
AU  - Cleland,JGF
AU  - Kuznetsova,T
AU  - Staessen,JA
AU  - Zannad,F
DO  - 10.1161/JAHA.116.005231
PY  - 2017///
SN  - 2047-9980
TI  - Risk for Incident Heart Failure: A Subject-Level Meta-Analysis From the Heart "OMics" in AGEing (HOMAGE) Study
T2  - Journal of the American Heart Association
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1161/JAHA.116.005231
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/48851
VL  - 6
ER  -

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