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@article{Murray:2014:10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60844-8,
author = {Murray, CJL and Ortblad, KF and Guinovart, C and Lim, SS and Wolock, TM and Roberts, DA and Dansereau, EA and Graetz, N and Barber, RM and Brown, JC and Wang, H and Duber, HC and Naghavi, M and Dicker, D and Dandona, L and Salomon, JA and Heuton, KR and Foreman, K and Phillips, DE and Fleming, TD and Flaxman, AD and Phillips, BK and Johnson, EK and Coggeshall, MS and Abd-Allah, F and Abera, SF and Abraham, JP and Abubakar, I and Abu-Raddad, LJ and Abu-Rmeileh, NM and Achoki, T and Adeyemo, AO and Adou, AK and Adsuar, JC and Agardh, EE and Akena, D and Al, Kahbouri MJ and Alasfoor, D and Albittar, MI and Alcala-Cerra, G and Angel, Alegretti M and Alemu, ZA and Alfonso-Cristancho, R and Alhabib, S and Ali, R and Alla, F and Allen, PJ and Alsharif, U and Alvarez, E and Alvis-Guzman, N and Amankwaa, AA and Amare, AT and Amini, H and Ammar, W and Anderson, BO and Antonio, CAT and Anwari, P and Arnlov, J and Arsenijevic, VSA and Artaman, A and Asghar, RJ and Assadi, R and Atkins, LS and Bada},
doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60844-8},
journal = {Lancet},
pages = {1005--1070},
title = {Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60844-8},
volume = {384},
year = {2014}
}

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TY  - JOUR
AB  - BackgroundThe Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occured since the Millennium Declaration.MethodsTo estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifications, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010–13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets.FindingsGlobally in 2013, there were 1·8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1·7 million to 2·1 million), 29·2 million prevalent HIV cases (28·1 to 31·7), and 1·3 million HIV deaths (1·3 to 1·5). At the
AU  - Murray,CJL
AU  - Ortblad,KF
AU  - Guinovart,C
AU  - Lim,SS
AU  - Wolock,TM
AU  - Roberts,DA
AU  - Dansereau,EA
AU  - Graetz,N
AU  - Barber,RM
AU  - Brown,JC
AU  - Wang,H
AU  - Duber,HC
AU  - Naghavi,M
AU  - Dicker,D
AU  - Dandona,L
AU  - Salomon,JA
AU  - Heuton,KR
AU  - Foreman,K
AU  - Phillips,DE
AU  - Fleming,TD
AU  - Flaxman,AD
AU  - Phillips,BK
AU  - Johnson,EK
AU  - Coggeshall,MS
AU  - Abd-Allah,F
AU  - Abera,SF
AU  - Abraham,JP
AU  - Abubakar,I
AU  - Abu-Raddad,LJ
AU  - Abu-Rmeileh,NM
AU  - Achoki,T
AU  - Adeyemo,AO
AU  - Adou,AK
AU  - Adsuar,JC
AU  - Agardh,EE
AU  - Akena,D
AU  - Al,Kahbouri MJ
AU  - Alasfoor,D
AU  - Albittar,MI
AU  - Alcala-Cerra,G
AU  - Angel,Alegretti M
AU  - Alemu,ZA
AU  - Alfonso-Cristancho,R
AU  - Alhabib,S
AU  - Ali,R
AU  - Alla,F
AU  - Allen,PJ
AU  - Alsharif,U
AU  - Alvarez,E
AU  - Alvis-Guzman,N
AU  - Amankwaa,AA
AU  - Amare,AT
AU  - Amini,H
AU  - Ammar,W
AU  - Anderson,BO
AU  - Antonio,CAT
AU  - Anwari,P
AU  - Arnlov,J
AU  - Arsenijevic,VSA
AU  - Artaman,A
AU  - Asghar,RJ
AU  - Assadi,R
AU  - Atkins,LS
AU  - Badawi,A
AU  - Balakrishnan,K
AU  - Banerjee,A
AU  - Basu,S
AU  - Beardsley,J
AU  - Bekele,T
AU  - Bell,ML
AU  - Bernabe,E
AU  - Beyene,TJ
AU  - Bhala,N
AU  - Bhalla,A
AU  - Bhutta,ZA
AU  - Bin,Abdulhak A
AU  - Binagwaho,A
AU  - Blore,JD
AU  - Basara,BB
AU  - Bose,D
AU  - Brainin,M
AU  - Breitborde,N
AU  - Castaneda-Orjuela,CA
AU  - Catala-Lopez,F
AU  - Chadha,VK
AU  - Chang,J-C
AU  - Chiang,PP-C
AU  - Chuang,T-W
AU  - Colomar,M
AU  - Cooper,LT
AU  - Cooper,C
AU  - Courville,KJ
AU  - Cowie,BC
AU  - Criqui,MH
AU  - Dandona,R
AU  - Dayama,A
AU  - De,Leo D
AU  - Degenhardt,L
AU  - Del,Pozo-Cruz B
AU  - Deribe,K
AU  - Des,Jarlais DC
AU  - Dessalegn,M
AU  - Dharmaratne,SD
AU  - Dilmen,U
AU  - Ding,EL
AU  - Driscoll,TR
AU  - Durrani,AM
AU  - Ellenbogen,RG
AU  - Ermakov,SP
AU  - Esteghamati,A
AU  - Faraon,EJA
AU  - Farzadfar,F
AU  - Fereshtehnejad,S-M
AU  - Fijabi,DO
AU  - Forouzanfar,MH
AU  - Paleo,UF
AU  - Gaffikin,L
AU  - Gamkrelidze,A
AU  - Gankpe,FG
AU  - Geleijnse,JM
AU  - Gessner,BD
AU  - Gibney,KB
AU  - Ginawi,IAM
AU  - Glaser,EL
AU  - Gona,P
AU  - Goto,A
AU  - Gouda,HN
AU  - Gugnani,HC
AU  - Gupta,R
AU  - Gupta,R
AU  - Hafezi-Nejad,N
AU  - Hamadeh,RR
AU  - Hammami,M
AU  - Hankey,GJ
AU  - Harb,HL
AU  - Maria,Haro J
AU  - Havmoeller,R
AU  - Hay,SI
AU  - Hedayati,MT
AU  - Heredia,Pi IB
AU  - Hoek,HW
AU  - Hornberger,JC
AU  - Hosgood,HD
AU  - Hotez,PJ
AU  - Hoy,DG
AU  - Huang,JJ
AU  - Iburg,KM
AU  - Idrisov,BT
AU  - Innos,K
AU  - Jacobsen,KH
AU  - Jeemon,P
AU  - Jensen,PN
AU  - Jha,V
AU  - Jiang,G
AU  - Jonas,JB
AU  - Juel,K
AU  - Kan,H
AU  - Kankindi,I
AU  - Karam,NE
AU  - Karch,A
AU  - Karema,CK
AU  - Kaul,A
AU  - Kawakami,N
AU  - Kazi,DS
AU  - Kemp,AH
AU  - Kengne,AP
AU  - Keren,A
AU  - Kereselidze,M
AU  - Khader,YS
AU  - Khalifa,SEAH
AU  - Khan,EA
AU  - Khang,Y-H
DO  - 10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60844-8
EP  - 1070
PY  - 2014///
SN  - 1474-547X
SP  - 1005
TI  - Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
T2  - Lancet
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60844-8
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/27123
VL  - 384
ER  -

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