Imperial College London
Portrait Picture

Dr Zulma M Cucunubá

Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health

Honorary Lecturer
 
 
 
//

Contact

 

zulma.cucunuba

 
 
//

Location

 

G27Medical SchoolSt Mary's Campus

//

Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@unpublished{Li:2019:10.1101/19004358,
author = {Li, X and Mukandavire, C and Cucunubá, Z and Abbas, K and Clapham, H and Jit, M and Johnson, H and Papadopoulos, T and Vynnycky, E and Brisson, M and Carter, E and Clark, A and de, Villiers M and Eilertson, K and Ferrari, M and Gamkrelidze, I and Gaythorpe, K and Grassly, N and Hallett, T and Jackson, M and Jean, K and Karachaliou, A and Klepac, P and Lessler, J and Li, X and Moore, S and Nayagam, S and Nguyen, DM and Razavi, H and Razavi-Shearer, D and Resch, S and Sanderson, C and Sweet, S and Sy, S and Tam, Y and Tanvir, H and Tran, QM and Trotter, C and Truelove, S and van, Zandvoort K and Verguet, S and Walker, N and Winter, A and Ferguson, N and Garske, T and Vaccine, Impact Modelling Consortium},
doi = {10.1101/19004358},
publisher = {medRxiv},
title = {Estimating the health impact of vaccination against 10 pathogens in 98 low and middle income countries from 2000 to 2030},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/19004358},
year = {2019}
}
Download

RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - UNPB
AB  - Background  The last two decades have seen substantial expansion of childhood vaccination programmes in low and middle income countries (LMICs). Here we quantify the health impact of these programmes by estimating the deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted by vaccination with ten antigens in 98 LMICs between 2000 and 2030.  Methods  Independent research groups provided model-based disease burden estimates under a range of vaccination coverage scenarios for ten pathogens: hepatitis B (HepB), Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib), human papillomavirus (HPV), Japanese encephalitis (JE), measles, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A (MenA), Streptococcus pneumoniae, rotavirus, rubella, yellow fever. Using standardized demographic data and vaccine coverage estimates for routine and supplementary immunization activities, the impact of vaccination programmes on deaths and DALYs was determined by comparing model estimates from the no vaccination counterfactual scenario with those from a default coverage scenario. We present results in two forms: deaths/DALYs averted in a particular calendar year, and in a particular annual birth cohort.  Findings  We estimate that vaccination will have averted 70 (2.5-97.5% quantile range 54-80) million deaths between 2000 and 2030 across the 98 countries and ten pathogens considered, 35 (30-40) million of these between 2000-2018. From 2000-2018, this represents a 41% (36-44%) reduction in deaths due to the ten pathogens relative to the no vaccination counterfactual. Most (95% (93-99%)) of this impact is in under-five age mortality, notably from measles. Over the lifetime of birth cohorts born between 2000 and 2030, we predict that 121 (102-136) million deaths will be averted by vaccination, of which 58 (31-82) and 38 (10-81) million are due to measles and Hepatitis B vaccination, respectively. We estimate that recent increases in vaccine coverage and introductions of additional vaccines will result in a 72% (64-75%) reductio
AU  - Li,X
AU  - Mukandavire,C
AU  - Cucunubá,Z
AU  - Abbas,K
AU  - Clapham,H
AU  - Jit,M
AU  - Johnson,H
AU  - Papadopoulos,T
AU  - Vynnycky,E
AU  - Brisson,M
AU  - Carter,E
AU  - Clark,A
AU  - de,Villiers M
AU  - Eilertson,K
AU  - Ferrari,M
AU  - Gamkrelidze,I
AU  - Gaythorpe,K
AU  - Grassly,N
AU  - Hallett,T
AU  - Jackson,M
AU  - Jean,K
AU  - Karachaliou,A
AU  - Klepac,P
AU  - Lessler,J
AU  - Li,X
AU  - Moore,S
AU  - Nayagam,S
AU  - Nguyen,DM
AU  - Razavi,H
AU  - Razavi-Shearer,D
AU  - Resch,S
AU  - Sanderson,C
AU  - Sweet,S
AU  - Sy,S
AU  - Tam,Y
AU  - Tanvir,H
AU  - Tran,QM
AU  - Trotter,C
AU  - Truelove,S
AU  - van,Zandvoort K
AU  - Verguet,S
AU  - Walker,N
AU  - Winter,A
AU  - Ferguson,N
AU  - Garske,T
AU  - Vaccine,Impact Modelling Consortium
DO  - 10.1101/19004358
PB  - medRxiv
PY  - 2019///
TI  - Estimating the health impact of vaccination against 10 pathogens in 98 low and middle income countries from 2000 to 2030
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/19004358
UR  - https://doi.org/10.1101/19004358
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/73511
ER  -
Download