Publications
136 results found
Suh E, Stopard IJ, Ben L, et al., 2024, Estimating the effects of temperature on transmission of the human malaria parasite, Plasmodium falciparum, Nature Communications, Vol: 15, ISSN: 2041-1723
Despite concern that climate change could increase the human risk to malaria in certain areas, the temperature dependency of malaria transmission is poorly characterized. Here, we use a mechanistic model fitted to experimental data to describe how Plasmodium falciparum infection of the African malaria vector, Anopheles gambiae, is modulated by temperature, including its influences on parasite establishment, conversion efficiency through parasite developmental stages, parasite development rate, and overall vector competence. We use these data, together with estimates of the survival of infected blood-fed mosquitoes, to explore the theoretical influence of temperature on transmission in four locations in Kenya, considering recent conditions and future climate change. Results provide insights into factors limiting transmission in cooler environments and indicate that increases in malaria transmission due to climate warming in areas like the Kenyan Highlands, might be less than previously predicted.
Ngufor C, Fongnikin A, Fagbohoun J, et al., 2023, Evaluating the attrition, fabric integrity and insecticidal durability of two dual active ingredient nets (Interceptor<SUP>®</SUP> G2 and Royal<SUP>®</SUP> Guard): methodology for a prospective study embedded in a cluster randomized controlled trial in Benin, MALARIA JOURNAL, Vol: 22
Huang W, Rodrigues J, Bilgo E, et al., 2023, Delftia tsuruhatensis TC1 symbiont suppresses malaria transmission by anopheline mosquitoes, Science, Vol: 381, Pages: 533-540, ISSN: 1095-9203
Malaria control demands the development of a wide range of complementary strategies. We describe the properties of a naturally occurring, non–genetically modified symbiotic bacterium, Delftia tsuruhatensis TC1, which was isolated from mosquitoes incapable of sustaining the development of Plasmodium falciparum parasites. D. tsuruhatensis TC1 inhibits early stages of Plasmodium development and subsequent transmission by the Anopheles mosquito through secretion of a small-molecule inhibitor. We have identified this inhibitor to be the hydrophobic molecule harmane. We also found that, on mosquito contact, harmane penetrates the cuticle, inhibiting Plasmodium development. D. tsuruhatensis TC1 stably populates the mosquito gut, does not impose a fitness cost on the mosquito, and inhibits Plasmodium development for the mosquito’s life. Contained field studies in Burkina Faso and modeling showed that D. tsuruhatensis TC1 has the potential to complement mosquito-targeted malaria transmission control.
Challenger JD, van Beek SW, Heine RT, et al., 2023, Modelling the impact of a highly potent Plasmodium falciparum transmission-blocking monoclonal antibody in areas of seasonal malaria transmission, Journal of Infectious Diseases, Vol: 228, Pages: 212-223, ISSN: 0022-1899
Transmission-blocking interventions can play an important role in combatting malaria worldwide. Recently, a highly potent Plasmodium falciparum transmission-blocking monoclonal antibody (TB31F) was demonstrated to be safe and efficacious in malaria-naive volunteers. Here we predict the potential public health impact of large-scale implementation of TB31F alongside existing interventions. We developed a pharmaco-epidemiological model, tailored to two settings of differing transmission intensity with already established insecticide-treated nets and seasonal malaria chemoprevention interventions. Community-wide annual administration (at 80% coverage) of TB31F over a three-year period was predicted to reduce clinical incidence by 54% (381 cases averted per 1000 people per year) in a high-transmission seasonal setting, and 74% (157 cases averted per 1000 people per year) in a low-transmission seasonal setting. Targeting school-aged children gave the largest reduction in terms of cases averted per dose. An annual administration of transmission- blocking monoclonal TB31F may be an effective intervention against malaria in seasonal malaria settings.
Kont MD, Lambert B, Sanou A, et al., 2023, Characterising the intensity of insecticide resistance: A novel framework for analysis of intensity bioassay data, Current Research in Parasitology & Vector-Borne Diseases, Pages: 100125-100125, ISSN: 2667-114X
Challenger J, Nash RK, Ngufor C, et al., 2023, Assessing the variability in experimental hut trials evaluating insecticide-treated nets against malaria vectors, Current Research in Parasitology & Vector-Borne Diseases, Vol: 3, Pages: 1-11, ISSN: 2667-114X
Experimental hut trials (EHTs) are used to evaluate indoor vector control interventions against malaria vectors in a controlled setting. The level of variability present in the assay will influence whether a given study is well powered to answer the research question being considered. We utilised disaggregated data from 15 previous EHTs to gain insight into the behaviour typically observed. Using simulations from generalised linear mixed models to obtain power estimates for EHTs, we show how factors such as the number of mosquitoes entering the huts each night and the magnitude of included random effects can influence study power. A wide variation in behaviour is observed in both the mean number of mosquitoes collected per hut per night (ranging from 1.6 to 32.5) and overdispersion in mosquito mortality. This variability in mortality is substantially greater than would be expected by chance and should be included in all statistical analyses to prevent false precision of results. We utilise both superiority and non-inferiority trials to illustrate our methodology, using mosquito mortality as the outcome of interest. The framework allows the measurement error of the assay to be reliably assessed and enables the identification of outlier results which could warrant further investigation. EHTs are increasingly playing an important role in the evaluation and regulation of indoor vector control interventions so it is important to ensure that these studies are adequately powered.
Whittaker C, Hamlet A, Sherrard-Smith E, et al., 2023, Seasonal dynamics of Anopheles stephensi and its implications for mosquito detection and emergent malaria control in the Horn of Africa, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of USA, Vol: 120, Pages: 1-9, ISSN: 0027-8424
Invasion of the malaria vector Anopheles stephensi across the Horn of Africa threatens control efforts across the continent, particularly in urban settings where the vector is able to proliferate. Malaria transmission is primarily determined by the abundance of dominant vectors, which often varies seasonally with rainfall. However, it remains unclear how An. stephensi abundance changes throughout the year, despite this being a crucial input to surveillance and control activities. We collate longitudinal catch data from across its endemic range to better understand the vector's seasonal dynamics and explore the implications of this seasonality for malaria surveillance and control across the Horn of Africa. Our analyses reveal pronounced variation in seasonal dynamics, the timing and nature of which are poorly predicted by rainfall patterns. Instead, they are associated with temperature and patterns of land use; frequently differing between rural and urban settings. Our results show that timing entomological surveys to coincide with rainy periods is unlikely to improve the likelihood of detecting An. stephensi. Integrating these results into a malaria transmission model, we show that timing indoor residual spraying campaigns to coincide with peak rainfall offers little improvement in reducing disease burden compared to starting in a random month. Our results suggest that unlike other malaria vectors in Africa, rainfall may be a poor guide to predicting the timing of peaks in An. stephensi-driven malaria transmission. This highlights the urgent need for longitudinal entomological monitoring of the vector in its new environments given recent invasion and potential spread across the continent.
Unwin H, Sherrard-Smith E, Churcher T, et al., 2023, Quantifying the direct and indirect protection provided by insecticide treated bed nets against malaria, Nature Communications, Vol: 14, Pages: 1-12, ISSN: 2041-1723
Long lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) provide both direct and indirect protection against malaria. As pyrethroid resistance evolves in mosquito vectors, it will be useful to understand how the specific benefits LLINs afford individuals and communities may be affected. Here we use modelling to show that there is no minimum LLIN usage needed for users and non-users to benefit from community protection. Modelling results also indicate that pyrethroid resistance in local mosquitoes will likely diminish the direct and indirect benefits from insecticides, leaving the barrier effects intact, but LLINs are still expected to provide enhanced benefit over untreated nets even at high levels of pyrethroid resistance.
Corbel V, Kont MD, Ahumada ML, et al., 2023, A new WHO bottle bioassay method to assess the susceptibility of mosquito vectors to public health insecticides: results from a WHO-coordinated multi-centre study, Parasites and Vectors, Vol: 16, ISSN: 1756-3305
BACKGROUND: The continued spread of insecticide resistance in mosquito vectors of malaria and arboviral diseases may lead to operational failure of insecticide-based interventions if resistance is not monitored and managed efficiently. This study aimed to develop and validate a new WHO glass bottle bioassay method as an alternative to the WHO standard insecticide tube test to monitor mosquito susceptibility to new public health insecticides with particular modes of action, physical properties or both. METHODS: A multi-centre study involving 21 laboratories worldwide generated data on the susceptibility of seven mosquito species (Aedes aegypti, Aedes albopictus, Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto [An. gambiae s.s.], Anopheles funestus, Anopheles stephensi, Anopheles minimus and Anopheles albimanus) to seven public health insecticides in five classes, including pyrethroids (metofluthrin, prallethrin and transfluthrin), neonicotinoids (clothianidin), pyrroles (chlorfenapyr), juvenile hormone mimics (pyriproxyfen) and butenolides (flupyradifurone), in glass bottle assays. The data were analysed using a Bayesian binomial model to determine the concentration-response curves for each insecticide-species combination and to assess the within-bioassay variability in the susceptibility endpoints, namely the concentration that kills 50% and 99% of the test population (LC50 and LC99, respectively) and the concentration that inhibits oviposition of the test population by 50% and 99% (OI50 and OI99), to measure mortality and the sterilizing effect, respectively. RESULTS: Overall, about 200,000 mosquitoes were tested with the new bottle bioassay, and LC50/LC99 or OI50/OI99 values were determined for all insecticides. Variation was seen between laboratories in estimates for some mosquito species-insecticide combinations, while other test results were consistent. The variation was generally greater with transfluthrin and flupyradifurone than with the other compounds tested, especially a
Gansané A, Candrinho B, Mbituyumuremyi A, et al., 2022, Design and methods for a quasi-experimental pilot study to evaluate the impact of dual active ingredient insecticide-treated nets on malaria burden in five regions in sub-Saharan Africa, Malaria Journal, Vol: 21, Pages: 1-20, ISSN: 1475-2875
BackgroundVector control tools have contributed significantly to a reduction in malaria burden since 2000, primarily through insecticidal-treated bed nets (ITNs) and indoor residual spraying. In the face of increasing insecticide resistance in key malaria vector species, global progress in malaria control has stalled. Innovative tools, such as dual active ingredient (dual-AI) ITNs that are effective at killing insecticide-resistant mosquitoes have recently been introduced. However, large-scale uptake has been slow for several reasons, including higher costs and limited evidence on their incremental effectiveness and cost-effectiveness. The present report describes the design of several observational studies aimed to determine the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of dual-AI ITNs, compared to standard pyrethroid-only ITNs, at reducing malaria transmission across a variety of transmission settings.MethodsObservational pilot studies are ongoing in Burkina Faso, Mozambique, Nigeria, and Rwanda, leveraging dual-AI ITN rollouts nested within the 2019 and 2020 mass distribution campaigns in each country. Enhanced surveillance occurring in select study districts include annual cross-sectional surveys during peak transmission seasons, monthly entomological surveillance, passive case detection using routine health facility surveillance systems, and studies on human behaviour and ITN use patterns. Data will compare changes in malaria transmission and disease burden in districts receiving dual-AI ITNs to similar districts receiving standard pyrethroid-only ITNs over three years. The costs of net distribution will be calculated using the provider perspective including financial and economic costs, and a cost-effectiveness analysis will assess incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for Interceptor® G2, Royal Guard®, and piperonyl butoxide ITNs in comparison to standard pyrethroid-only ITNs, based on incidence rate ratios calculated from routine data.ConclusionsEvidence
Some BM, Da DF, McCabe R, et al., 2022, Adapting field-mosquito collection techniques in a perspective of near-infrared spectroscopy implementation, PARASITES & VECTORS, Vol: 15, ISSN: 1756-3305
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Gray L, Asay BC, Hephaestus B, et al., 2022, Back to the Future: Quantifying Wing Wear as a Method to Measure Mosquito Age, AMERICAN JOURNAL OF TROPICAL MEDICINE AND HYGIENE, Vol: 107, Pages: 689-700, ISSN: 0002-9637
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Sherrard-Smith E, Ngufor C, Sanou A, et al., 2022, Inferring the epidemiological benefit of indoor vector control interventions against malaria from mosquito data, Nature Communications, Vol: 13, ISSN: 2041-1723
The cause of malaria transmission has been known for over a century but it is still unclear whether entomological measures are sufficiently reliable to inform policy decisions in human health. Decision-making on the effectiveness of new insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) and the indoor residual spraying of insecticide (IRS) have been based on epidemiological data, typically collected in cluster-randomised control trials. The number of these trials that can be conducted is limited. Here we use a systematic review to highlight that efficacy estimates of the same intervention may vary substantially between trials. Analyses indicate that mosquito data collected in experimental hut trials can be used to parameterize mechanistic models for Plasmodium falciparum malaria and reliably predict the epidemiological efficacy of quick-acting, neuro-acting ITNs and IRS. Results suggest that for certain types of ITNs and IRS using this framework instead of clinical endpoints could support policy and expedite the widespread use of novel technologies.
Hamlet A, Dengela D, Tongren JE, et al., 2022, The potential impact of Anopheles stephensi establishment on the transmission of Plasmodium falciparum in Ethiopia and prospective control measures, BMC Medicine, Vol: 20, ISSN: 1741-7015
BackgroundSub-Saharan Africa has seen substantial reductions in cases and deaths due to malaria over the past two decades. While this reduction is primarily due to an increasing expansion of interventions, urbanisation has played its part as urban areas typically experience substantially less malaria transmission than rural areas. However, this may be partially lost with the invasion and establishment of Anopheles stephensi. An. stephensi, the primary urban malaria vector in Asia, was first detected in Africa during 2012 in Djibouti and was subsequently identified in Ethiopia in 2016, and later in Sudan and Somalia. In Djibouti, malaria cases have increased 30-fold from 2012 to 2019 though the impact in the wider region remains unclear.MethodsHere we have adapted an existing model of mechanistic malaria transmission to estimate the increase in vector density required to explain the trends in malaria cases seen in Djibouti. To account for the observed plasticity in An. stephensi behaviour, and the unknowns of how it will establish in a novel environment, we sample behavioural parameters in order to account for a wide range of uncertainty. This quantification is then applied to Ethiopia, considering temperature-dependent extrinsic incubation periods, pre-existing vector-control interventions and Plasmodium falciparum prevalence in order to assess the potential impact of An. stephensi establishment on P. falciparum transmission. Following this, we estimate the potential impact of scaling up ITN (insecticide treated nets)/IRS (indoor residual spraying) and implementing piperonyl butoxide (PBO) ITNs and larval source management,, as well as their economic costs.ResultsWe estimate that annual P. falciparum malaria cases could increase by 50% (95% CI 14-90) if no additional interventions are implemented. The implementation of sufficient control measures to reduce malaria transmission to pre-stephensi levels will cost hundreds of millions of USD. ConclusionsSubstantial hete
Green N, Agossa F, Yovogan B, et al., 2022, An evidence synthesis approach for combining different data sources illustrated using entomological efficacy of insecticides for indoor residual spraying, PLoS One, Vol: 17, Pages: e0263446-e0263446, ISSN: 1932-6203
BackgroundProspective malaria public health interventions are initially tested for entomological impact using standardised experimental hut trials. In some cases, data are collated as aggregated counts of potential outcomes from mosquito feeding attempts given the presence of an insecticidal intervention. Comprehensive data i.e. full breakdowns of probable outcomes of mosquito feeding attempts, are more rarely available. Bayesian evidence synthesis is a framework that explicitly combines data sources to enable the joint estimation of parameters and their uncertainties. The aggregated and comprehensive data can be combined using an evidence synthesis approach to enhance our inference about the potential impact of vector control products across different settings over time.MethodsAggregated and comprehensive data from a meta-analysis of the impact of Pirimiphos-methyl, an indoor residual spray (IRS) product active ingredient, used on wall surfaces to kill mosquitoes and reduce malaria transmission, were analysed using a series of statistical models to understand the benefits and limitations of each.ResultsMany more data are available in aggregated format (N = 23 datasets, 4 studies) relative to comprehensive format (N = 2 datasets, 1 study). The evidence synthesis model had the smallest uncertainty at predicting the probability of mosquitoes dying or surviving and blood-feeding. Generating odds ratios from the correlated Bernoulli random sample indicates that when mortality and blood-feeding are positively correlated, as exhibited in our data, the number of successfully fed mosquitoes will be under-estimated. Analysis of either dataset alone is problematic because aggregated data require an assumption of independence and there are few and variable data in the comprehensive format.ConclusionsWe developed an approach to combine sources from trials to maximise the inference that can be made from such data and that is applicable to other systems. Bayesian evidence synthes
Martin JL, Messenger LA, Mosha FW, et al., 2022, Durability of three types of dual active ingredient long-lasting insecticidal net compared to a pyrethroid-only LLIN in Tanzania: methodology for a prospective cohort study nested in a cluster randomized controlled trial., Malaria Journal, Vol: 21, Pages: 96-96, ISSN: 1475-2875
BACKGROUND: Progress achieved by long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) against malaria is threatened by widespread selection of pyrethroid resistance among vector populations. LLINs with non-pyrethroid insecticides are urgently needed. This study aims to assess the insecticide and textile durability of three classes of dual-active ingredient (A.I.) LLINs using techniques derived from established WHO LLIN testing methods to set new standards of evaluation. METHODS: A WHO Phase 3 active ingredients and textile durability study will be carried out within a cluster randomized controlled trial in 40 clusters in Misungwi district, Tanzania. The following treatments will be evaluated: (1) Interceptor®G2 combining chlorfenapyr and the pyrethroid alpha-cypermethrin, (2) Royal Guard® treated with pyriproxyfen and alpha-cypermethrin, (3) Olyset™ Plus which incorporates a synergist piperonyl butoxide and the pyrethroid permethrin, and (4) a reference standard alpha-cypermethrin only LLIN (Interceptor®). 750 nets will be followed in 5 clusters per intervention arm at 6, 12, 24 and 36 months post distribution for survivorship and hole index assessment. A second cohort of 1950 nets per net type will be identified in 10 clusters, of which 30 LLINs will be withdrawn for bio-efficacy and chemical analysis every 6 months up to 36 months and another 30 collected for experimental hut trials every year. Bio-efficacy will be assessed using cone bioassays and tunnel tests against susceptible and resistant laboratory strains of Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto. Efficacy of field-collected nets will be compared in six experimental huts. The main outcomes will be Anopheles mortality up to 72 h post exposure, blood feeding and egg maturation using ovary dissection to assess impact on fecundity. CONCLUSIONS: Study findings will help develop bio-efficacy and physical durability criteria for partner A.I., in relation to the cRCT epidemiological and entomologi
Sherrard-Smith E, Winskill P, Hamlet A, et al., 2022, Optimising the deployment of vector control tools against malaria: a data-informed modelling study, The Lancet Planetary Health, Vol: 6, Pages: e100-e109, ISSN: 2542-5196
Background Concern that insecticide resistant mosquitoes are threatening malaria control has driven the development of new types of insecticide treated nets (ITNs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS). Malaria control programmes have a choice of vector control interventions though it is unclear which should be used to combat the disease.MethodsThe entomological impact of ITNs combining a pyrethroid insecticide with the synergist piperonyl butoxide (PBO) is characterised from experimental hut trials and used to parameterise a malaria transmission dynamics model. Model projections are validated for two sites by comparing results to data from pyrethroid-PBO ITN and IRS randomised control trials (RCTs). Models are used to identify optimum intervention packages for scenarios with varying budget, price, entomological and epidemiological factors. Findings Combining entomological data and models can reasonably predict changes in malaria in the Tanzanian and Ugandan RCTs. Models indicate switching from pyrethroid-only to pyrethroid-PBO ITNs could avert up to twice as many cases, though the additional benefit is highly variable and depends upon setting. Annual delivery of long-lasting, non-pyrethroid IRS is projected to prevent substantially more cases over 3-years, but pyrethroid-PBO ITNs tend to be the most cost-effective intervention per case averted. An online tool (MINT) provides users with a method of designing intervention packages given their setting and budget. InterpretationThe most cost-effective vector control package will vary locally. Models able to recreate results of RCTs can be used to extrapolate outcomes elsewhere to support evidence-based decision making for investment in vector control.FundingMedical Research Council, IVCC, Wellcome Trust.
Yaro JB, Tiono AB, Ouedraogo A, et al., 2022, Risk of Plasmodium falciparum infection in south-west Burkina Faso: potential impact of expanding eligibility for seasonal malaria chemoprevention, Scientific Reports, Vol: 12, ISSN: 2045-2322
Burkina Faso has one of the highest malaria burdens in sub-Saharan Africa despite the mass deployment of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) and use of seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) in children aged up to 5 years. Identification of risk factors for Plasmodium falciparum infection in rural Burkina Faso could help to identify and target malaria control measures. A cross-sectional survey of 1,199 children and adults was conducted during the peak malaria transmission season in the Cascades Region of south-west Burkina Faso in 2017. Logistic regression was used to identify risk factors for microscopically confirmed P. falciparum infection. A malaria transmission dynamic model was used to determine the impact on malaria cases averted of administering SMC to children aged 5-15 year old. P. falciparum prevalence was 32.8% in the study population. Children aged 5 to < 10 years old were at 3.74 times the odds (95% CI = 2.68-5.22, P < 0.001) and children aged 10 to 15 years old at 3.14 times the odds (95% CI = 1.20-8.21, P = 0.02) of P. falciparum infection compared to children aged less than 5 years old. Administration of SMC to children aged up to 10 years is predicted to avert an additional 57 malaria cases per 1000 population per year (9.4% reduction) and administration to children aged up to 15 years would avert an additional 89 malaria cases per 1000 population per year (14.6% reduction) in the Cascades Region, assuming current coverage of pyrethroid-piperonyl butoxide ITNs. Malaria infections were high in all age strata, although highest in children aged 5 to 15 years, despite roll out of core malaria control interventions. Given the burden of infection in school-age children, extension of the eligibility criteria for SMC could help reduce the burden of malaria in Burkina Faso and other countries in the region.
Ngufor C, Fagbohoun J, Agbevo A, et al., 2022, Comparative efficacy of two pyrethroid-piperonyl butoxide nets (Olyset Plus and PermaNet 3.0) against pyrethroid resistant malaria vectors: a non-inferiority assessment, Malaria Journal, Vol: 21, Pages: 1-13, ISSN: 1475-2875
BackgroundPyrethroid-PBO nets were conditionally recommended for control of malaria transmitted by mosquitoes with oxidase-based pyrethroid-resistance based on epidemiological evidence of additional protective effect with Olyset Plus compared to a pyrethroid-only net (Olyset Net). Entomological studies can be used to assess the comparative performance of other brands of pyrethroid-PBO ITNs to Olyset Plus.MethodsAn experimental hut trial was performed in Cové, Benin to compare PermaNet 3.0 (deltamethrin plus PBO on roof panel only) to Olyset Plus (permethrin plus PBO on all panels) against wild pyrethroid-resistant Anopheles gambiae sensu lato (s.l.) following World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines. Both nets were tested unwashed and after 20 standardized washes compared to Olyset Net. Laboratory bioassays were also performed to help explain findings in the experimental huts.ResultsWith unwashed nets, mosquito mortality was higher in huts with PermaNet 3.0 compared to Olyset Plus (41% vs. 28%, P < 0.001). After 20 washes, mortality declined significantly with PermaNet 3.0 (41% unwashed vs. 17% after washing P < 0.001), but not with Olyset Plus (28% unwashed vs. 24% after washing P = 0.433); Olyset Plus induced significantly higher mortality than PermaNet 3.0 and Olyset Net after 20 washes. PermaNet 3.0 showed a higher wash retention of PBO compared to Olyset Plus. A non-inferiority analysis performed with data from unwashed and washed nets together using a margin recommended by the WHO, showed that PermaNet 3.0 was non-inferior to Olyset Plus in terms of mosquito mortality (25% with Olyset Plus vs. 27% with PermaNet 3.0, OR = 1.528, 95%CI = 1.02–2.29) but not in reducing mosquito feeding (25% with Olyset Plus vs. 30% with PermaNet 3.0, OR = 1.192, 95%CI = 0.77–1.84). Both pyrethroid-PBO nets were superior to Olyset Net.ConclusionOlyset Plus o
de Jong RM, Meerstein-Kessel L, Da DF, et al., 2021, Monoclonal antibodies block transmission of genetically diverse Plasmodium falciparum strains to mosquitoes, npj Vaccines, Vol: 6, Pages: 1-9, ISSN: 2059-0105
Malaria parasite transmission to mosquitoes relies on the uptake of sexual stage parasites during a blood meal and subsequent formation of oocysts on the mosquito midgut wall. Transmission-blocking vaccines (TBVs) and monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) target sexual stage antigens to interrupt human-to-mosquito transmission and may form important tools for malaria elimination. Although most epitopes of these antigens are considered highly conserved, little is known about the impact of natural genetic diversity on the functional activity of transmission-blocking antibodies. Here we measured the efficacy of three mAbs against leading TBV candidates (Pfs48/45, Pfs25 and Pfs230) in transmission assays with parasites from naturally infected donors compared to their efficacy against the strain they were raised against (NF54). Transmission-reducing activity (TRA) was measured as reduction in mean oocyst intensity. mAb 45.1 (α-Pfs48/45) and mAb 4B7 (α-Pfs25) reduced transmission of field parasites from almost all donors with IC80 values similar to NF54. Sequencing of oocysts that survived high mAb concentrations did not suggest enrichment of escape genotypes. mAb 2A2 (α-Pfs230) only reduced transmission of parasites from a minority of the donors, suggesting that it targets a non-conserved epitope. Using six laboratory-adapted strains, we revealed that mutations in one Pfs230 domain correlate with mAb gamete surface binding and functional TRA. Our findings demonstrate that, despite the conserved nature of sexual stage antigens, minor sequence variation can significantly impact the efficacy of transmission-blocking mAbs. Since mAb 45.1 shows high potency against genetically diverse strains, our findings support its further clinical development and may inform Pfs48/45 vaccine design.
Lissenden N, Kont MD, Essandoh J, et al., 2021, Review and meta-analysis of the evidence for choosing between specific pyrethroids for programmatic purposes, Insects, Vol: 12, ISSN: 2075-4450
Pyrethroid resistance is widespread in malaria vectors. However, differential mortality in discriminating dose assays to different pyrethroids is often observed in wild populations. When this occurs, it is unclear if this differential mortality should be interpreted as an indication of differential levels of susceptibility within the pyrethroid class, and if so, if countries should consider selecting one specific pyrethroid for programmatic use over another. A review of evidence from molecular studies, resistance testing with laboratory colonies and wild populations, and mosquito behavioural assays were conducted to answer these questions. Evidence suggested that in areas where pyrethroid resistance exists, different results in insecticide susceptibility assays with specific pyrethroids currently in common use (deltamethrin, permethrin, α-cypermethrin, and λ-cyhalothrin) are not necessarily indicative of an operationally relevant difference in potential performance. Consequently, it is not advisable to use rotation between these pyrethroids as an insecticide-resistance management strategy. Less commonly used pyrethroids (bifenthrin and etofenprox) may have sufficiently different modes of action, though further work is needed to examine how this may apply to insecticide resistance management
Nash RK, Lambert B, NGuessan R, et al., 2021, Systematic review of the entomological impact of insecticide-treated nets evaluated using experimental hut trials in Africa, Current Research in Parasitology & Vector-Borne Diseases, Vol: 1, Pages: 1-13, ISSN: 2667-114X
Resistance of anopheline mosquitoes to pyrethroid insecticides is spreading rapidly across sub-Saharan Africa, diminishing the efficacy of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) – the primary tool for preventing malaria. The entomological efficacy of indoor vector control interventions can be measured in experimental hut trials (EHTs), where hut structures resemble local housing, but allow the collection of mosquitoes that entered, exited, blood-fed and/or died. There is a need to understand how the spread of resistance changes ITN efficacy and to elucidate factors influencing EHT results, including differences in experimental hut design, to support the development of novel vector control tools. A comprehensive database of EHTs was compiled following a systematic review to identify all known trials investigating ITNs or indoor residual spraying across sub-Saharan Africa. This analysis focuses on EHTs investigating ITNs and uses Bayesian statistical models to characterise the complex interaction between ITNs and mosquitoes, the between-study variability, and the impact of pyrethroid resistance. As resistance rises, the entomological efficacy of ITNs declines. They induce less mortality and are less likely to deter mosquitoes from entering huts. Despite this, ITNs continue to offer considerable personal protection by reducing mosquito feeding until resistance reaches high levels. There are clear associations between the different entomological impacts of ITNs, though there is still substantial variability between studies, some of which can be accounted for by hut design. The relationship between EHT outcomes and the level of resistance (as measured by discriminating dose bioassays) is highly uncertain. The meta-analyses show that EHTs are an important reproducible assay for capturing the complex entomological efficacy of ITNs on blood-feeding mosquitoes. The impact of pyrethroid resistance on these measures appears broadly consistent across a wide geographical area onc
Djaafara A, Whittaker C, Watson OJ, et al., 2021, Using syndromic measures of mortality to capture the dynamics of COVID-19 in Java, Indonesia in the context of vaccination roll-out, BMC Medicine, Vol: 19, ISSN: 1741-7015
Background: As in many countries, quantifying COVID-19 spread in Indonesia remains challenging due to testing limitations. In Java, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were implemented throughout 2020. However, as a vaccination campaign launches, cases and deaths are rising across the island. Methods: We used modelling to explore the extent to which data on burials in Jakarta using strict COVID-19 protocols (C19P) provide additional insight into the transmissibility of the disease, epidemic trajectory, and the impact of NPIs. We assess how implementation of NPIs in early 2021 will shape the epidemic during the period of likely vaccine roll-out. Results: C19P burial data in Jakarta suggest a death toll approximately 3.3 times higher than reported. Transmission estimates using these data suggest earlier, larger, and more sustained impact of NPIs. Measures to reduce sub-national spread, particularly during Ramadan, substantially mitigated spread to more vulnerable rural areas. Given current trajectory, daily cases and deaths are likely to increase in most regions as the vaccine is rolled-out. Transmission may peak in early 2021 in Jakarta if current levels of control are maintained. However, relaxation of control measures is likely to lead to a subsequent resurgence in the absence of an effective vaccination campaign. Conclusions: Syndromic measures of mortality provide a more complete picture of COVID-19 severity upon which to base decision-making. The high potential impact of the vaccine in Java is attributable to reductions in transmission to date and dependent on these being maintained. Increases in control in the relatively short-term will likely yield large, synergistic increases in vaccine impact.
Da DF, McCabe R, Somé BM, et al., 2021, Detection of Plasmodium falciparum in laboratory-reared and naturally infected wild mosquitoes using near-infrared spectroscopy., Scientific Reports, Vol: 11, Pages: 10289-10289, ISSN: 2045-2322
There is an urgent need for high throughput, affordable methods of detecting pathogens inside insect vectors to facilitate surveillance. Near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) has shown promise to detect arbovirus and malaria in the laboratory but has not been evaluated in field conditions. Here we investigate the ability of NIRS to identify Plasmodium falciparum in Anopheles coluzzii mosquitoes. NIRS models trained on laboratory-reared mosquitoes infected with wild malaria parasites can detect the parasite in comparable mosquitoes with moderate accuracy though fails to detect oocysts or sporozoites in naturally infected field caught mosquitoes. Models trained on field mosquitoes were unable to predict the infection status of other field mosquitoes. Restricting analyses to mosquitoes of uninfectious and highly-infectious status did improve predictions suggesting sensitivity and specificity may be better in mosquitoes with higher numbers of parasites. Detection of infection appears restricted to homogenous groups of mosquitoes diminishing NIRS utility for detecting malaria within mosquitoes.
Challenger J, Olivera Mesa D, Da DF, et al., 2021, Predicting the public health impact of a malaria transmission-blocking vaccine, Nature Communications, Vol: 12, Pages: 1-12, ISSN: 2041-1723
Transmission-blocking vaccines that interrupt malaria transmission from humans to mosquitoes are being tested in early clinical trials. The activity of such a vaccine is commonly evaluated using membrane-feeding assays. Understanding the field efficacy of such a vaccine requires knowledge of how heavily infected wild, naturally blood-fed mosquitoes are, as this indicates how difficult it will be to block transmission. Here we use data on naturally infected mosquitoes collected in Burkina Faso to translate the laboratory-estimated activity into an estimated activity in the field. A transmission dynamics model is then utilised to predict a transmission-blocking vaccine’s public health impact alongside existing interventions. The model suggests that school-aged children are an attractive population to target for vaccination. Benefits of vaccination are distributed across the population, averting the greatest number of cases in younger children. Utilising a transmission-blocking vaccine alongside existing interventions could have a substantial impact against malaria.
Stopard IJ, Churcher TS, Lambert B, 2021, Estimating the extrinsic incubation period of malaria using a mechanistic model of sporogony, PLoS Computational Biology, Vol: 17, ISSN: 1553-734X
During sporogony, malaria-causing parasites infect a mosquito, reproduce and migrate to the mosquito salivary glands where they can be transmitted the next time blood feeding occurs. The time required for sporogony, known as the extrinsic incubation period (EIP), is an important determinant of malaria transmission intensity. The EIP is typically estimated as the time for a given percentile, x, of infected mosquitoes to develop salivary gland sporozoites (the infectious parasite life stage), which is denoted by EIPx. Many mechanisms, however, affect the observed sporozoite prevalence including the human-to-mosquito transmission probability and possibly differences in mosquito mortality according to infection status. To account for these various mechanisms, we present a mechanistic mathematical model, which explicitly models key processes at the parasite, mosquito and observational scales. Fitting this model to experimental data, we find greater variation in the EIP than previously thought: we estimated the range between EIP10 and EIP90 (at 27°C) as 4.5 days compared to 0.9 days using existing statistical methods. This pattern holds over the range of study temperatures included in the dataset. Increasing temperature from 21°C to 34°C decreased the EIP50 from 16.1 to 8.8 days. Our work highlights the importance of mechanistic modelling of sporogony to (1) improve estimates of malaria transmission under different environmental conditions or disease control programs and (2) evaluate novel interventions that target the mosquito life stages of the parasite.
Hellewell J, Sherrard-Smith E, Ogoma S, et al., 2021, Assessing the impact of low-technology emanators alongside long-lasting insecticidal nets to control malaria, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, Vol: 376, Pages: 1-9, ISSN: 0962-8436
Malaria control in sub-Saharan Africa relies on the widespread use of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) or the indoor residual spraying of insecticide. Disease transmission may be maintained even when these indoor interventions are universally used as some mosquitoes will bite in the early morning and evening when people are outside. As countries seek to eliminate malaria, they can target outdoor biting using new vector control tools such as spatial repellent emanators, which emit airborne insecticide to form a protective area around the user. Field data are used to incorporate a low-technology emanator into a mathematical model of malaria transmission to predict its public health impact across a range of scenarios. Targeting outdoor biting by repeatedly distributing emanators alongside LLINs increases the chance of elimination, but the additional benefit depends on the level of anthropophagy in the local mosquito population, emanator effectiveness and the pre-intervention proportion of mosquitoes biting outdoors. High proportions of pyrethroid-resistant mosquitoes diminish LLIN impact because of reduced mosquito mortality. When mosquitoes are highly anthropophagic, this reduced mortality leads to more outdoor biting and a reduced additional benefit of emanators, even if emanators are assumed to retain their effectiveness in the presence of pyrethroid resistance. Different target product profiles are examined, which show the extra epidemiological benefits of spatial repellents that induce mosquito mortality.
Tadesse FG, Ashine T, Teka H, et al., 2021, Anopheles stephensi mosquitoes as vectors of Plasmodium vivax and P. falciparum, Horn of Africa, 2019, Emerging Infectious Diseases, Vol: 27, Pages: 603-607, ISSN: 1080-6040
Anopheles stephensi mosquitoes, efficient vectors in parts of Asia and Africa, were found in 75.3% of water sources surveyed and contributed to 80.9% of wild-caught Anopheles mosquitoes in Awash Sebat Kilo, Ethiopia. High susceptibility of these mosquitoes to Plasmodium falciparum and vivax infection presents a challenge for malaria control in the Horn of Africa.
Guglielmo F, Sanou A, Churcher TS, et al., 2021, Quantifying individual variability in exposure risk to mosquito bites in the Cascades region, Burkina Faso, Malaria Journal, Vol: 20, Pages: 1-14, ISSN: 1475-2875
BackgroundThe Cascades region, Burkina Faso, has a high malaria burden despite reported high insecticide-treated mosquito net (ITN) use. Human and vector activities outside the hours when indoor interventions offer direct protection from infectious bites potentially increase exposure risk to bites from malaria-transmitting Anopheles mosquitoes. This work investigated the degree of variation in human behaviour both between individuals and through time (season) to quantify how it impacts exposure to malaria vectors.MethodsPatterns in human overnight activity (18:00–06:00) to quantify time spent using an ITN across 7 successive nights in two rural communities, Niakore (N = 24 participants) and Toma (71 participants), were observed in the dry and rainy seasons, between 2017 and 2018. Hourly human landing Anopheles mosquito catches were conducted in Niakore specifically, and Cascades region generally, between 2016 and 2017. Data were statistically combined to estimate seasonal variation in time spent outdoors and Anopheles bites received per person per night (bpppn).ResultsSubstantial variability in exposure to outdoor Anopheles bites was detected within and between communities across seasons. In October, when Anopheles densities are highest, an individual’s risk of Anopheles bites ranged from 2.2 to 52.2 bites per person per night (bpppn) within the same week with variable risk dependent on hours spent indoors. Comparably higher outdoor human activity was observed in April and July but, due to lower Anopheles densities estimated, bpppn were 0.2–4.7 and 0.5–32.0, respectively. Males and people aged over 21 years were predicted to receive more bites in both sentinel villages.ConclusionThis work presents one of the first clear descriptions of the degree of heterogeneity in time spent outdoors between people and across the year. Appreciation of sociodemographic, cultural and entomological activities will help refine approaches to vector
Devine GJ, Vazquez-Prokopec GM, Bibiano-Marin W, et al., 2021, The entomological impact of passive metofluthrin emanators against indoor <i>Aedes aegypti</i>: A randomized field trial, PLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES, Vol: 15, ISSN: 1935-2735
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