Imperial College London
Portrait Picture

Professor Adam Hawkes

Faculty of Engineering, Department of Chemical Engineering

Professor of Energy Systems
 
 
 
//

Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 9300a.hawkes

 
 
//

Location

 

RODH.503Roderic Hill BuildingSouth Kensington Campus

//

Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Guo:2019:10.1016/j.energy.2019.03.047,
author = {Guo, Y and Hawkes, A},
doi = {10.1016/j.energy.2019.03.047},
journal = {Energy},
pages = {205--217},
title = {The impact of demand uncertainties and China-US natural gas tariff on global gas trade},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2019.03.047},
volume = {175},
year = {2019}
}
Download

RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - The uncertainties in gas demand levels and geopolitical issues may lead to significant changes in global gas trade. This paper uses an agent-based model to simulate the alternative market futures under two demand trajectories: a baseline following current policy pledges until 2060 and another where demand shifts to a lower level in 2030. Endogenously generated capacity investments are driven by long-term bilateral contracts between importers and exporters, where investors are assumed to evaluate the potential risks of demand changes while making their decisions. The results suggest that, when the demand decreases in 2030, the Middle East takes the dominant position in Eastern Asia, whereas this role is occupied by North America in the current policy scenario. In addition, the impacts of a 25% tariff by China on U.S. natural gas are studied for both scenarios. The revenue of North American gas trade is only marginally affected by this tariff. Under the normal demand trajectory, the tariff influences the Chinese market more notably in the longer term when global supply is tightened by decommissioning. In the case of lower global gas demand, the market share of Russia in Western Europe could be threatened by increasing North American export there.
AU  - Guo,Y
AU  - Hawkes,A
DO  - 10.1016/j.energy.2019.03.047
EP  - 217
PY  - 2019///
SN  - 0360-5442
SP  - 205
TI  - The impact of demand uncertainties and China-US natural gas tariff on global gas trade
T2  - Energy
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2019.03.047
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/69107
VL  - 175
ER  -
Download