Publications
222 results found
Anderson RM, Hollingsworth TD, Nokes DJ, 2009, Mathematical models of transmission and control, Oxford Textbook of Public Health, Editors: Detels, Beaglehole, Lansang, Gulliford, Oxford, UK, Publisher: Oxford University Press, ISBN: 9780199218707
Rhodes CJ, Hollingsworth TD, 2009, Variational data assimilation with epidemic models, JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY, Vol: 258, Pages: 591-602, ISSN: 0022-5193
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- Citations: 31
Fraser C, Donnelly CA, Cauchemez S, et al., 2009, Pandemic Potential of a Strain of Influenza A (H1N1): Early Findings, SCIENCE, Vol: 324, Pages: 1557-1561, ISSN: 0036-8075
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- Citations: 1393
Baggaley RF, Griffin JT, Chapman R, et al., 2009, Estimating the public health impact of the effect of herpes simplex virus suppressive therapy on plasma HIV-1 viral load, AIDS, Vol: 23, Pages: 1005-1013, ISSN: 0269-9370
Objective: Trials of herpes simplex virus (HSV) suppressive therapy among HSV-2/HIV-1-infected individuals have reported an impacton plasma HIV-1 viral loads(PVLs). Our aim was to estimate the population-level impact of suppressive therapy on female-to-male HIV-1 sexual transmission.Design and methods: By comparing prerandomization and postrandomization individual-level PVL data from the first two HSV suppressive therapy randomized controlled trials in sub-Saharan Africa, we estimated the effect of treatment on duration of asymptomatic infection and number of HIV-1 transmission events for each trial.Results: Assuming that a reduction in PVL is accompanied by an increased duration of HIV-1 asymptomatic infection, 4-6 years of HSV suppressive therapy produce a 1-year increase in the duration of this stage. To avert one HIV-1 transmission requires 8.8 [95% confidence interval (CI), 5.9-14.9] and 11.4 (95% Cl, 7.8-27.5) women to be treated from halfway through their HIV-1 asymptomatic period, using results from Burkina Faso and South African trials, respectively. Regardless of the timing of treatment initiation, 51.6 (95% Cl, 30.4-137.0) and 66.5 (95% Cl, 36.7-222.6) treatment-years are required to avert one HIV-1 infection. Distributions of set-point PVL values from sub-Saharan African populations suggest that unintended adverse consequences of therapy at the population level (i.e. increased HIV-1 transmission due to increased duration of infection) are unlikely to occur in these settings.Conclusion: HSV suppressive therapy may avert relatively few HIV-1 transmission events per person-year of treatment. Its use as a prevention intervention may be limited; however, further research into its effect on rate of CD4 cell count decline and the impact of higher dosing schedules is warranted. (C) 2009 Wolters Kluwer Health vertical bar Lippincott Williams & Wilkins
Anderson RM, Hollingsworth TD, Nokes DJ, 2009, 6.16 Mathematical models of transmission and control, Oxford Textbook of Public Health, Publisher: Oxford University Press, ISBN: 9780199218707
Christophe Fraser, Christl AD, Cauchemez S, et al., 2009, Response, Science, Vol: 325, Pages: 1072-1073, ISSN: 0036-8075
Hollingsworth TD, Anderson RM, Fraser C, 2008, HIV-1 transmission, by stage of infection, JOURNAL OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES, Vol: 198, Pages: 687-693, ISSN: 0022-1899
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- Citations: 476
Bezemer D, de WF, Boerlijst MC, et al., 2008, A resurgent HIV-1 epidemic among men who have sex with men in the era of potent antiretroviral therapy., AIDS, Vol: 22, Pages: 1071-1077, ISSN: 1473-5571
Reducing viral load, highly active antiretroviral therapy has the potential to limit onwards transmission of HIV-1 and thus help contain epidemic spread. However, increases in risk behaviour and resurgent epidemics have been widely reported post-highly active antiretroviral therapy. The aim of this study was to quantify the impact that highly active antiretroviral therapy had on the epidemic.
Hollingsworth TD, Ferguson NM, Anderson RM, 2007, Frequent travelers and rate of spread of epidemics., Emerg Infect Dis, Vol: 13, Pages: 1288-1294, ISSN: 1080-6040
A small proportion of air travelers make disproportionately more journeys than the rest of travelers. They also tend to interact predominantly with other frequent travelers in hotels and airport lounges. This group has the potential to accelerate global spread of infectious respiratory diseases. Using an epidemiologic model, we simulated exportation of cases from severe acute respiratory syndrome-like and influenza-like epidemics in a population for which a small proportion travel more frequently than the rest. Our simulations show that frequent travelers accelerate international spread of epidemics only if they are infected early in an outbreak and the outbreak does not expand rapidly. If the epidemic growth rate is high, as is likely for pandemic influenza, heterogeneities in travel are frequently overwhelmed by the large number of infected persons in the majority population and the resulting high probability that some of these persons will take an international flight.
Fraser C, Hollingsworth D, Chapman D, et al., 2007, Variation in HIV-1 set-point viral load: Epidemiological analysis and an evolutionary hypothesis., Proc Natl Acad Sci USA, Vol: In press
Hollingsworth TD, Ferguson NM, Anderson RM, 2006, Will travel restrictions control the international spread of pandemic influenza?, NATURE MEDICINE, Vol: 12, Pages: 497-499, ISSN: 1078-8956
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- Citations: 149
Bianchi M, Boyle M, Hollingsworth D, 1999, A comparison of methods for trend estimation, APPL ECON LETT, Vol: 6, Pages: 103-109, ISSN: 1350-4851
This paper analyses a number of methods for trend estimation focusing on their ability to pick up turning points quickly at the end of a series. An application to the Bank of England flows M4 series is provided which shows that some of the proposed methods may be more reliable than others for this task.
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