Imperial College London
Portrait Picture

Professor Jonathan P. Eastwood

Faculty of Natural Sciences, Department of Physics

Professor of Space Physics
 
 
 
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Contact

 

jonathan.eastwood Website

 
 
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Assistant

 

Mr Luke Kratzmann +44 (0)20 7594 7770

 
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Location

 

Huxley BuildingSouth Kensington Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Citation

BibTex format

@article{Kubicka:2016:2/255,
author = {Kubicka, M and Mostl, C and Amerstorfer, T and Boakes, PD and Feng, L and Eastwood, J and Tormanen, O},
doi = {2/255},
journal = {Astrophysical Journal},
title = {Prediction of geomagnetic storm strength from inner heliospheric in situ observations},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/833/2/255},
volume = {833},
year = {2016}
}
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RIS format (EndNote, RefMan)

TY  - JOUR
AB  - Prediction of the effects of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) on Earth strongly depends on knowledge of the interplanetary magnetic field southward component, B z . Predicting the strength and duration of B z inside a CME with sufficient accuracy is currently impossible, forming the so-called B z problem. Here, we provide a proof-of-concept of a new method for predicting the CME arrival time, speed, B z , and resulting disturbance storm time (Dst) index on Earth based only on magnetic field data, measured in situ in the inner heliosphere (<1 au). On 2012 June 12–16, three approximately Earthward-directed and interacting CMEs were observed by the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory imagers and Venus Express (VEX) in situ at 0.72 au, 6° away from the Sun–Earth line. The CME kinematics are calculated using the drag-based and WSA–Enlil models, constrained by the arrival time at VEX, resulting in the CME arrival time and speed on Earth. The CME magnetic field strength is scaled with a power law from VEX to Wind. Our investigation shows promising results for the Dst forecast (predicted: −96 and −114 nT (from 2 Dst models); observed: −71 nT), for the arrival speed (predicted: 531 ± 23 km s−1; observed: 488 ± 30 km s−1), and for the timing (6 ± 1 hr after the actual arrival time). The prediction lead time is 21 hr. The method may be applied to vector magnetic field data from a spacecraft at an artificial Lagrange point between the Sun and Earth or to data taken by any spacecraft temporarily crossing the Sun–Earth line.
AU  - Kubicka,M
AU  - Mostl,C
AU  - Amerstorfer,T
AU  - Boakes,PD
AU  - Feng,L
AU  - Eastwood,J
AU  - Tormanen,O
DO  - 2/255
PY  - 2016///
SN  - 1538-4357
TI  - Prediction of geomagnetic storm strength from inner heliospheric in situ observations
T2  - Astrophysical Journal
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/833/2/255
UR  - http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/43345
VL  - 833
ER  -
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