Imperial College London

ProfessorSalmanRawaf

Faculty of MedicineSchool of Public Health

Director of WHO Collaborating Centre
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 8814s.rawaf

 
 
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Assistant

 

Ms Ela Augustyniak +44 (0)20 7594 8603

 
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Location

 

311Reynolds BuildingCharing Cross Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Publication Type
Year
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264 results found

Graetz N, Woyczynski L, Wilson KF, Hall JB, Abate KH, Abd-Allah F, Adebayo OM, Adekanmbi V, Afshari M, Ajumobi O, Akinyemiju T, Alahdab F, Al-Aly Z, Alcalde Rabanal JE, Alijanzadeh M, Alipour V, Altirkawi K, Amiresmaili M, Anber NH, Andrei CL, Anjomshoa M, Antonio CAT, Arabloo J, Aremu O, Aryal KK, Asadi-Aliabadi M, Atique S, Ausloos M, Awasthi A, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Azari S, Badawi A, Banoub JAM, Barker-Collo SL, Barnett A, Bedi N, Bennett DA, Bhattacharjee NV, Bhattacharyya K, Bhattarai S, Bhutta ZA, Bijani A, Bikbov B, Britton G, Burstein R, Butt ZA, Cardenas R, Carvalho F, Castaneda-Orjuela CA, Castro F, Cerin E, Chang J-C, Collison ML, Cooper C, Cork MA, Daoud F, Das Gupta R, Weaver ND, De Neve J-W, Deribe K, Desalegn BB, Deshpande A, Desta M, Dhimal M, Diaz D, Dinberu MT, Djalalinia S, Dubey M, Dubljanin E, Duraes AR, Dwyer-Lindgren L, Earl L, Kalan ME, El-Khatib Z, Eshrati B, Faramarzi M, Fareed M, Faro A, Fereshtehnejad S-M, Fernandes E, Filip I, Fischer F, Fukumoto T, Garcia JA, Gill PS, Gill TK, Gona PN, Gopalani SV, Grada A, Guo Y, Gupta R, Gupta V, Haj-Mirzaian A, Haj-Mirzaian A, Hamadeh RR, Hamidi S, Hasan M, Hassen HY, Hendrie D, Henok A, Henry NJ, Hernandez Prado B, Herteliu C, Hole MK, Hossain N, Hosseinzadeh M, Hu G, Ilesanmi OS, Irvani SSN, Islam SMS, Izadi N, Jakovljevic M, Jha RP, Ji JS, Jonas JB, Shushtari ZJ, Jozwiak JJ, Kanchan T, Kasaeian A, Karyani AK, Keiyoro PN, Kesavachandran CN, Khader YS, Khafaie MA, Khan EA, Khater MM, Kiadaliri AA, Kiirithio DN, Kim YJ, Kimokoti RW, Kinyoki DK, Kisa A, Kosen S, Koyanagi A, Krishan K, Defo BK, Kumar M, Kumar P, Lami FH, Lee PH, Levine AJ, Li S, Liao Y, Lim L-L, Listl S, Lopez JCF, Majdan M, Majdzadeh R, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Mansournia MA, Martins-Melo FR, Masaka A, Massenburg BB, Mayala BK, Mehta KM, Mendoza W, Mensah GA, Meretoja TJ, Mestrovic T, Miller TR, Mini GK, Mirrakhimov EM, Moazen B, Mohammad DK, Darwesh AM, Mohammed S, Mohebi F, Mokdad AH, Monasta L, Moodley Y, Moosazadeh M, Moradi G, Moet al., 2021, Mapping routine measles vaccination in low- and middle-income countries, NATURE, ISSN: 0028-0836

Journal article

Greenfield G, Shmueli L, Harvey A, Quezada-Yamamoto H, Davidovitch N, Pliskin J, Rawaf S, Majeed FAA, Hayhoe Bet al., 2021, Patient-initiated second medical consultations: patient characteristics and motivating factors, impact on care and satisfaction: A systematic review, BMJ Open, ISSN: 2044-6055

Objectives: To review the characteristics and motivations of patients seeking second opinions, and the impact of such opinions on patient management, satisfaction, and cost-effectiveness. Data sources: Embase, Medline, PsycINFO and HMIC databases.Study design: A systematic literature search was performed for terms related to second opinion and patient characteristics. Study quality was assessed using the National Institutes of Health (NIH) Quality Assessment Tool for Observational Cohort and Cross-Sectional Studies. Data collection / Extraction methods: We included articles focused on patient-initiated second opinions, which provided quantitative data on their impact on diagnosis, treatment, prognosis or patient satisfaction, described the characteristics or motivating factors of patients who initiated a second opinion, or the cost-effectiveness of patient-initiated second opinions. Principal findings: Thirty-one articles were included in the review. 27 studies considered patient characteristics, 18 patient motivating factors, 10 patient satisfaction, and 17 clinical agreement between the first and second opinion. Seeking a second opinion was more common in women, middle age patients, more educated patients; and in people having a chronic condition, with higher income or socioeconomic status or living in central urban areas. Patients seeking a second opinion sought to gain more information or reassurance about their diagnosis or treatment. While many second opinions confirm the original diagnosis or treatment, discrepancies in opinions had a potential major impact on patient outcomes in up to 58% of cases. No studies reporting on the cost-effectiveness of patient initiated second opinions.Conclusions: Seeking a second opinion was more common in women, middle-age patients, and more educated patients, and in people having a chronic condition, with higher income or socioeconomic status or living in central urban areas. Patients seeking a second opinion sought to gain m

Journal article

Cromwell EA, Osborne JCP, Unnasch TR, Basáñez M-G, Gass KM, Barbre KA, Hill E, Johnson KB, Donkers KM, Shirude S, Schmidt CA, Adekanmbi V, Adetokunboh OO, Afarideh M, Ahmadpour E, Ahmed MB, Akalu TY, Al-Aly Z, Alanezi FM, Alanzi TM, Alipour V, Andrei CL, Ansari F, Ansha MG, Anvari D, Appiah SCY, Arabloo J, Arnold BF, Ausloos M, Ayanore MA, Baig AA, Banach M, Barac A, Bärnighausen TW, Bayati M, Bhattacharyya K, Bhutta ZA, Bibi S, Bijani A, Bohlouli S, Bohluli M, Brady OJ, Bragazzi NL, Butt ZA, Carvalho F, Chatterjee S, Chattu VK, Chattu SK, Cormier NM, Dahlawi SMA, Damiani G, Daoud F, Darwesh AM, Daryani A, Deribe K, Dharmaratne SD, Diaz D, Do HT, El Sayed Zaki M, El Tantawi M, Elemineh DA, Faraj A, Fasihi Harandi M, Fatahi Y, Feigin VL, Fernandes E, Foigt NA, Foroutan M, Franklin RC, Gubari MIM, Guido D, Guo Y, Haj-Mirzaian A, Hamagharib Abdullah K, Hamidi S, Herteliu C, Hidru HDD, Higazi TB, Hossain N, Hosseinzadeh M, Househ M, Ilesanmi OS, Ilic MD, Ilic IM, Iqbal U, Irvani SSN, Jha RP, Joukar F, Jozwiak JJ, Kabir Z, Kalankesh LR, Kalhor R, Karami Matin B, Karimi SE, Kasaeian A, Kavetskyy T, Kayode GA, Kazemi Karyani A, Kelbore AG, Keramati M, Khalilov R, Khan EA, Khan MNN, Khatab K, Khater MM, Kianipour N, Kibret KT, Kim YJ, Kosen S, Krohn KJ, Kusuma D, La Vecchia C, Lansingh VC, Lee PH, LeGrand KE, Li S, Longbottom J, Magdy Abd El Razek H, Magdy Abd El Razek M, Maleki A, Mamun AA, Manafi A, Manafi N, Mansournia MA, Martins-Melo FR, Mazidi M, McAlinden C, Meharie BG, Mendoza W, Mengesha EW, Mengistu DT, Mereta ST, Mestrovic T, Miller TR, Miri M, Moghadaszadeh M, Mohammadian-Hafshejani A, Mohammadpourhodki R, Mohammed S, Mohammed S, Moradi M, Moradzadeh R, Moraga P, Mosser JF, Naderi M, Nagarajan AJ, Naik G, Negoi I, Nguyen CT, Nguyen HLT, Nguyen TH, Nikbakhsh R, Oancea B, Olagunju TO, Olagunju AT, Omar Bali A, Onwujekwe OE, Pana A, Pourjafar H, Rahim F, Rahman MHU, Rathi P, Rawaf S, Rawaf DL, Rawassizadeh R, Resnikoff S, Reta MA, Rezapour A, Rubagotti E, Rubino Set al., 2021, Predicting the environmental suitability for onchocerciasis in Africa as an aid to elimination planning., PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol: 15, Pages: 1-23, ISSN: 1935-2727

Recent evidence suggests that, in some foci, elimination of onchocerciasis from Africa may be feasible with mass drug administration (MDA) of ivermectin. To achieve continental elimination of transmission, mapping surveys will need to be conducted across all implementation units (IUs) for which endemicity status is currently unknown. Using boosted regression tree models with optimised hyperparameter selection, we estimated environmental suitability for onchocerciasis at the 5 × 5-km resolution across Africa. In order to classify IUs that include locations that are environmentally suitable, we used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis to identify an optimal threshold for suitability concordant with locations where onchocerciasis has been previously detected. This threshold value was then used to classify IUs (more suitable or less suitable) based on the location within the IU with the largest mean prediction. Mean estimates of environmental suitability suggest large areas across West and Central Africa, as well as focal areas of East Africa, are suitable for onchocerciasis transmission, consistent with the presence of current control and elimination of transmission efforts. The ROC analysis identified a mean environmental suitability index of 0·71 as a threshold to classify based on the location with the largest mean prediction within the IU. Of the IUs considered for mapping surveys, 50·2% exceed this threshold for suitability in at least one 5 × 5-km location. The formidable scale of data collection required to map onchocerciasis endemicity across the African continent presents an opportunity to use spatial data to identify areas likely to be suitable for onchocerciasis transmission. National onchocerciasis elimination programmes may wish to consider prioritising these IUs for mapping surveys as human resources, laboratory capacity, and programmatic schedules may constrain survey implementation, and possibly delaying MDA initia

Journal article

Bhattacharjee NV, Schaeffer LE, Hay SI, 2021, Mapping inequalities in exclusive breastfeeding in low- and middle-income countries, 2000-2018, NATURE HUMAN BEHAVIOUR, Vol: 5, Pages: 1027-+, ISSN: 2397-3374

Journal article

Johnson SC, Cunningham M, Dippenaar IN, Sharara F, Wool EE, Agesa KM, Han C, Miller-Petrie MK, Wilson S, Fuller JE, Balassyano S, Bertolacci GJ, Davis Weaver N, Lopez AD, Murray CJL, Naghavi Met al., 2021, Public health utility of cause of death data: applying empirical algorithms to improve data quality, BMC MEDICAL INFORMATICS AND DECISION MAKING, Vol: 21

Journal article

Sartorius B, VanderHeide JD, Yang M, Goosmann EA, Hon J, Haeuser E, Cork MA, Perkins S, Jahagirdar D, Schaeffer LE, Serfes AL, LeGrand KE, Abbastabar H, Abebo ZH, Abosetugn AE, Abu-Gharbieh E, Accrombessi MMK, Adebayo OM, Adegbosin AE, Adekanmbi V, Adetokunboh OO, Adeyinka DA, Ahinkorah BO, Ahmadi K, Ahmed MB, Akalu Y, Akinyemi OO, Akinyemi RO, Aklilu A, Akunna CJ, Alahdab F, Al-Aly Z, Alam N, Alamneh AA, Alanzi TM, Alemu BW, Alhassan RK, Ali T, Alipour V, Amini S, Ancuceanu R, Ansari F, Anteneh ZA, Anvari D, Anwer R, Appiah SCY, Arabloo J, Asemahagn MA, Asghari Jafarabadi M, Asmare WN, Atnafu DD, Atout MMW, Atreya A, Ausloos M, Awedew AF, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Ayanore MA, Aynalem YA, Ayza MA, Azari S, Azene ZN, Babar Z-U-D, Baig AA, Balakrishnan S, Banach M, Bärnighausen TW, Basu S, Bayati M, Bedi N, Bekuma TT, Bezabhe WMM, Bhagavathula AS, Bhardwaj P, Bhattacharyya K, Bhutta ZA, Bibi S, Bikbov B, Birhan TA, Bitew ZW, Bockarie MJ, Boloor A, Brady OJ, Bragazzi NL, Briko AN, Briko NI, Burugina Nagaraja S, Butt ZA, Cárdenas R, Carvalho F, Charan J, Chatterjee S, Chattu SK, Chattu VK, Chowdhury MAK, Chu D-T, Cook AJ, Cormier NM, Cowden RG, Culquichicon C, Dagnew B, Dahlawi SMA, Damiani G, Daneshpajouhnejad P, Daoud F, Daryani A, das Neves J, Davis Weaver N, Derbew Molla M, Deribe K, Desta AA, Deuba K, Dharmaratne SD, Dhungana GP, Diaz D, Djalalinia S, Doku PN, Dubljanin E, Duko B, Eagan AW, Earl L, Eaton JW, Effiong A, El Sayed Zaki M, El Tantawi M, Elayedath R, El-Jaafary SI, Elsharkawy A, Eskandarieh S, Eyawo O, Ezzikouri S, Fasanmi AO, Fasil A, Fauk NK, Feigin VL, Ferede TY, Fernandes E, Fischer F, Foigt NA, Folayan MO, Foroutan M, Francis JM, Fukumoto T, Gad MM, Geberemariyam BS, Gebregiorgis BG, Gebremichael B, Gesesew HA, Getacher L, Ghadiri K, Ghashghaee A, Gilani SA, Ginindza TG, Glagn M, Golechha M, Gona PN, Gubari MIM, Gugnani HC, Guido D, Guled RA, Hall BJ, Hamidi S, Handiso DW, Hargono A, Hashi A, Hassanipour S, Hassankhani H, Hayat K, Herteliu C, Hidru HDDet al., 2021, Subnational mapping of HIV incidence and mortality among individuals aged 15–49 years in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000–18: a modelling study, The Lancet HIV, Vol: 8, Pages: e363-e375, ISSN: 2352-3018

BackgroundHigh-resolution estimates of HIV burden across space and time provide an important tool for tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts and assist with improving the precision and efficiency of targeting efforts. We aimed to assess HIV incidence and HIV mortality for all second-level administrative units across sub-Saharan Africa.MethodsIn this modelling study, we developed a framework that used the geographically specific HIV prevalence data collected in seroprevalence surveys and antenatal care clinics to train a model that estimates HIV incidence and mortality among individuals aged 15–49 years. We used a model-based geostatistical framework to estimate HIV prevalence at the second administrative level in 44 countries in sub-Saharan Africa for 2000–18 and sought data on the number of individuals on antiretroviral therapy (ART) by second-level administrative unit. We then modified the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) to use these HIV prevalence and treatment estimates to estimate HIV incidence and mortality by second-level administrative unit.FindingsThe estimates suggest substantial variation in HIV incidence and mortality rates both between and within countries in sub-Saharan Africa, with 15 countries having a ten-times or greater difference in estimated HIV incidence between the second-level administrative units with the lowest and highest estimated incidence levels. Across all 44 countries in 2018, HIV incidence ranged from 2·8 (95% uncertainty interval 2·1–3·8) in Mauritania to 1585·9 (1369·4–1824·8) cases per 100 000 people in Lesotho and HIV mortality ranged from 0·8 (0·7–0·9) in Mauritania to 676·5 (513·6–888·0) deaths per 100 000 people in Lesotho. Variation in both incidence and mortality was substantially greater at the subnational level than at the national level and the highest estimated ra

Journal article

Alsaad SM, Binmoammar TA, Hassounah S, Mokdad AH, Rawaf Set al., 2021, Glycemic control among patients with diabetes and comorbid depression in gulf countries: A systematic review, Journal of Nature and Science of Medicine, Vol: 4, Pages: 99-108, ISSN: 2589-627X

Background: People with diabetes suffering from depression are at greater risk of suffering from an episode of diabetic burnout which can have adverse outcomes on their health. Objectives: The primary objective is to review the relationship between depression and glycemic control among patients with diabetes in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Methods: MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsychINFO, and GLOBAL HEALTH databases were systematically searched without language restriction to identify relevant studies that examined the relationship between glycemic control and depression among patients with diabetes in (GCC) countries. Reference lists and Google Scholar were also searched for additional studies. Research was conducted by two reviewers independently and disagreements were resolved by discussion. Results: Our search revealed nine studies were published between 2004 and 2018 and a total of 2199 subjects with diabetes. Majority of the participants were diagnosed with type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM). Out of the 9 articles included in the synthesis, only five of them have reported a significant association between depression and glycemic control; on the other hand, four articles showed nonsignificant association. The prevalence rates of depression among diabetic patients ranged from 12.5% to 61.8%. Conclusion: Depression was associated with poorly controlled HbA1c. However, this association was not significant across all studies. Considering the high rates of DM in these countries, better quality studies are needed to assess the depression comorbidity and its impact on glycemic control for better cost-effective treatments and to inform practice.

Journal article

Haile LM, Kamenov K, Briant PS, Orji AU, Steinmetz JD, Abdoli A, Abdollahi M, Abu-Gharbieh E, Afshin A, Ahmed H, Rashid TA, Akalu Y, Alahdab F, Alanezi FM, Alanzi TM, Al Hamad H, Ali L, Alipour V, Al-Raddadi RM, Amu H, Arabloo J, Arab-Zozani M, Arulappan J, Ashbaugh C, Atnafu DD, Babar Z-U-D, Baig AA, Banik PC, Barnighausen TW, Barrow A, Bender RG, Bhagavathula AS, Bhardwaj N, Bhardwaj P, Bibi S, Bijani A, Burkart K, Cederroth CR, Charan J, Choudhari SG, Chu D-T, Couto RAS, Dagnew AB, Dagnew B, Dahlawi SMA, Dai X, Dandona L, Dandona R, Desalew A, Dhamnetiya D, Dhimal ML, Dhimal M, Doyle KE, Duncan BB, Ekholuenetale M, Filip I, Fischer F, Franklin RC, Gaidhane AM, Gaidhane S, Gallus S, Ghamari F, Ghashghaee A, Ghozali G, Gilani SA, Glavan I-R, Golechha M, Goulart BNG, Gupta VB, Gupta VK, Hamidi S, Hammond BR, Hay SI, Hayat K, Heidari G, Hoffman HJ, Hopf KP, Hosseinzadeh M, Househ M, Hussain R, Hwang B-F, Iavicoli I, Ibitoye SE, Ilesanmi OS, Irvani SSN, Islam SMS, Iwagami M, Jacob L, Jayapal SK, Jha RP, Jonas JB, Kalhor R, Al-Salihi NK, Kandel H, Kasa AS, Kayode GA, Khalilov R, Khan EA, Khatib MN, Kosen S, Koyanagi A, Kumar GA, Landires I, Lasrado S, Lim SS, Liu X, Lobo SW, Lugo A, Makki A, Mendoza W, Mersha AG, Mihretie KM, Miller TR, Misra S, Mohamed TA, Mohammadi M, Mohammadian-Hafshejani A, Mohammed A, Mokdad AH, Moni MA, Kandel SN, Huong LTN, Nixon MR, Noubiap JJ, Nunez-Samudio V, Oancea B, Oguoma VM, Olagunju AT, Olusanya BO, Olusanya JO, Orru H, Owolabi MO, Padubidri JR, Pakshir K, Pardhan S, Kan FP, Pasovic M, Pawar S, Hai QP, Pinheiro M, Pourshams A, Rabiee N, Rabiee M, Radfar A, Rahim F, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rahman MHU, Rahman M, Rahmani AM, Rana J, Rao CR, Rao SJ, Rashedi V, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Renzaho AMN, Rezapour A, Ripon RK, Rodrigues V, Rustagi N, Saeed U, Sahebkar A, Samy AM, Santric-Milicevic MM, Sathian B, Satpathy M, Sawhney M, Schlee W, Schmidt MI, Seylani A, Shaikh MA, Shannawaz M, Shiferaw WS, Siabani S, Singal A, Singh JA, Singh JK, Singhal D, Skret al., 2021, Hearing loss prevalence and years lived with disability, 1990-2019: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, The Lancet, Vol: 397, Pages: 996-1009, ISSN: 0140-6736

BackgroundHearing loss affects access to spoken language, which can affect cognition and development, and can negatively affect social wellbeing. We present updated estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study on the prevalence of hearing loss in 2019, as well as the condition's associated disability.MethodsWe did systematic reviews of population-representative surveys on hearing loss prevalence from 1990 to 2019. We fitted nested meta-regression models for severity-specific prevalence, accounting for hearing aid coverage, cause, and the presence of tinnitus. We also forecasted the prevalence of hearing loss until 2050.FindingsAn estimated 1·57 billion (95% uncertainty interval 1·51–1·64) people globally had hearing loss in 2019, accounting for one in five people (20·3% [19·5–21·1]). Of these, 403·3 million (357·3–449·5) people had hearing loss that was moderate or higher in severity after adjusting for hearing aid use, and 430·4 million (381·7–479·6) without adjustment. The largest number of people with moderate-to-complete hearing loss resided in the Western Pacific region (127·1 million people [112·3–142·6]). Of all people with a hearing impairment, 62·1% (60·2–63·9) were older than 50 years. The Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index explained 65·8% of the variation in national age-standardised rates of years lived with disability, because countries with a low HAQ Index had higher rates of years lived with disability. By 2050, a projected 2·45 billion (2·35–2·56) people will have hearing loss, a 56·1% (47·3–65·2) increase from 2019, despite stable age-standardised prevalence.InterpretationAs populations age, the number of people with hearing loss will increase. Interventions such as childhood screening, hearing aids, effective ma

Journal article

Mostavafi E, Ghasemian A, Mahani SAN, Rawaf S, et alet al., 2021, Emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases in the WHO Eastern Mediterranean region, 2001-2018, International Journal of Health policy & Mangamnet, ISSN: 0036-3537

Background: Countries in the World Health Organization (WHO) Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) arepredisposed to highly contagious, severe and fatal, emerging infectious diseases (EIDs), and re-emerging infectiousdiseases (RIDs). This paper reviews the epidemiological situation of EIDs and RIDs of global concern in the EMRbetween 2001 and 2018.Methods: To do a narrative review, a complete list of studies in the field was we prepared following a systematic searchapproach. Studies that were purposively reviewed were identified to summarize the epidemiological situation of eachtargeted disease. A comprehensive search of all published studies on EIDs and RIDs between 2001 and 2018 was carriedout through search engines including Medline, Web of Science, Scopus, Google Scholar, and ScienceDirect.Results: Leishmaniasis, hepatitis A virus (HAV) and hepatitis E virus (HEV) are reported from all countries in theregion. Chikungunya, Crimean Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF), dengue fever, and H5N1 have been increasing innumber, frequency, and expanding in their geographic distribution. Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), whichwas reported in this region in 2012 is still a public health concern. There are challenges to control cholera, diphtheria,leishmaniasis, measles, and poliomyelitis in some of the countries. Moreover, Alkhurma hemorrhagic fever (AHF), andRift Valley fever (RVF) are limited to some countries in the region. Also, there is little information about the real situationof the plague, Q fever, and tularemia.Conclusion: EIDs and RIDs are prevalent in most countries in the region and could further spread within the region. Itis crucial to improve regional capacities and capabilities in preventing and responding to disease outbreaks with adequateresources and expertise.

Journal article

Steinmetz JD, Bourne RRA, Briant PS, Flaxman S, Taylor HR, Jonas JB, Abdoli A, Abrha WA, Abualhasan A, Abu-Gharbieh E, Adal TG, Afshin A, Ahmadieh H, Alemayehu W, Alemzadeh SA, Alfaar AS, Alipour V, Androudi S, Arabloo J, Arditi A, Aregawi BB, Arrigo A, Ashbaugh C, Ashrafi E, Atnafu DD, Bagli E, Baig AA, Barnighausen TW, Parodi MB, Beheshti M, Bhagavathula AS, Bhardwaj N, Bhardwaj P, Bhattacharyya K, Bijani A, Bikbov M, Bottone M, Braithwaite T, Bron AM, Nagaraja SB, Butt ZA, dos Santos FLC, Carneiro VLA, Casson RJ, Cheng C-Y, Choi J-YJ, Chu D-T, Cicinelli MV, Coelho JM, Congdon NG, Couto RAS, Cromwell EA, Dahlawi SMA, Dai X, Dana R, Dandona L, Dandona R, Del Monte MA, Molla MD, Dervenis N, Desta AA, Deva JP, Diaz D, Djalalinia S, Ehrlich JR, Elayedath R, Elhabashy HR, Ellwein LB, Emamian MH, Eskandarieh S, Farzadfar F, Fernandes AG, Fischer F, Friedman DS, Furtado JM, Gaidhane S, Gazzard G, Gebremichael B, George R, Ghashghaee A, Gilani SA, Golechha M, Hamidi S, Hammond BR, Hartnett MER, Hartono RK, Hashi A, Hay S, Hayat K, Heidari G, Ho HC, Holla R, Househ M, Huang JJ, Ibitoye SE, Ilic IM, Ilic MD, Ingram AD, Irvani SSN, Islam SMS, Itumalla R, Jayaram S, Jha RP, Kahloun R, Kalhor R, Kandel H, Kasa AS, Kavetskyy T, Kayode GA, Kempen JH, Khairallah M, Khalilov R, Khan EA, Khanna RC, Khatib MN, Khoja TAM, Kim GR, Kim JE, Kim YJ, Kisa A, Kisa S, Kosen S, Koyanagi A, Bicer BK, Kulkarni V, Kurmi OP, Landires I, Lansingh VC, Leasher JL, LeGrand KE, Leveziel N, Limburg H, Liu X, Kunjathur SM, Maleki S, Manafi N, Mansouri K, McAlinden C, Meles GG, Mersha AM, Michalek IM, Miller TR, Misra S, Mohammad Y, Mohammadi SF, Mohammed JA, Mokdad AH, Moni MA, Al Montasir A, Morse AR, Mulaw GF, Naderi M, Naderifar H, Naidoo KS, Naimzada MD, Nangia V, Swamy SN, Naveed M, Negash H, Huong LTN, Nunez-Samudio V, Ogbo FA, Ogundimu K, Olagunju AT, Onwujekwe OE, Otstavnov N, Owolabi MO, Pakshir K, Panda-Jonas S, Parekh U, Park E-C, Pasovic M, Pawar S, Pesudovs K, Peto T, Pham HQ, Pinheiro Met al., 2021, Causes of blindness and vision impairment in 2020 and trends over 30 years, and prevalence of avoidable blindness in relation to VISION 2020: the Right to Sight: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study, LANCET GLOBAL HEALTH, Vol: 9, Pages: E144-E160, ISSN: 2214-109X

Journal article

Bourne RRA, Steinmetz JD, Flaxman S, Briant PS, Taylor HR, Resnikoff S, Casson RJ, Abdoli A, Abu-Gharbieh E, Afshin A, Ahmadieh H, Akalu Y, Alamneh AA, Alemayehu W, Alfaar AS, Alipour V, Anbesu EW, Androudi S, Arabloo J, Arditi A, Asaad M, Bagli E, Baig AA, Barnighausen TW, Parodi MB, Bhagavathula AS, Bhardwaj N, Bhardwaj P, Bhattacharyya K, Bijani A, Bikbov M, Bottone M, Braithwaite T, Bron AM, Butt ZA, Cheng C-Y, Chu D-T, Cicinelli MV, Coelho JM, Dagnew B, Dai X, Dana R, Dandona L, Dandona R, Del Monte MA, Deva JP, Diaz D, Djalalinia S, Dreer LE, Ehrlich JR, Ellwein LB, Emamian MH, Fernandes AG, Fischer F, Friedman DS, Furtado JM, Gaidhane AM, Gaidhane S, Gazzard G, Gebremichael B, George R, Ghashghaee A, Golechha M, Hamidi S, Hammond BR, Hartnett MER, Hartono RK, Hay S, Heidari G, Ho HC, Chi LH, Househ M, Ibitoye SE, Ilic IM, Ilic MD, Ingram AD, Irvani SSN, Jha RP, Kahloun R, Kandel H, Kasa AS, Kempen JH, Keramati M, Khairallah M, Khan EA, Khanna RC, Khatib MN, Kim JE, Kim YJ, Kisa A, Kisa S, Koyanagi A, Kurmi OP, Lansingh VC, Leasher JL, Leveziel N, Limburg H, Majdan M, Manafi N, Mansouri K, McAlinden C, Mohammadi SF, Mohammadian-Hafshejani A, Mohammadpourhodki R, Mokdad AH, Moosavi D, Morse AR, Naderi M, Naidoo KS, Nangia V, Cuong TN, Huong LTN, Ogundimu K, Olagunju AT, Ostroff SM, Panda-Jonas S, Pesudovs K, Peto T, Syed ZQ, Rahman MHU, Ramulu PY, Rawaf DL, Rawaf S, Reinig N, Robin AL, Rossetti L, Safi S, Sahebkar A, Samy AM, Saxena D, Serle JB, Shaikh MA, Shen TT, Shibuya K, Shin JI, Silva JC, Silvester A, Singh JA, Singhal D, Sitorus RS, Skiadaresi E, Skirbekk V, Soheili A, Sousa RARC, Spurlock EE, Stambolian D, Taddele BW, Tadesse EG, Tahhan N, Tareque MI, Topouzis F, Bach XT, Travillian RS, Tsilimbaris MK, Varma R, Virgili G, Wang N, Wang YX, West SK, Wong TY, Zaidi Z, Zewdie KA, Jonas JB, Vos Tet al., 2021, Trends in prevalence of blindness and distance and near vision impairment over 30 years: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study, LANCET GLOBAL HEALTH, Vol: 9, Pages: E130-E143, ISSN: 2214-109X

Journal article

Graetz N, Woyczynski L, Wilson KF, Hall JB, Abate KH, Abd-Allah F, Adebayo OM, Adekanmbi V, Afshari M, Ajumobi O, Akinyemiju T, Alahdab F, Al-Aly Z, Alcalde Rabanal JE, Alijanzadeh M, Alipour V, Altirkawi K, Amiresmaili M, Anber NH, Andrei CL, Anjomshoa M, Antonio CAT, Arabloo J, Aremu O, Aryal KK, Asadi-Aliabadi M, Atique S, Ausloos M, Awasthi A, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Azari S, Badawi A, Banoub JAM, Barker-Collo SL, Barnett A, Bedi N, Bennett DA, Bhattacharjee NV, Bhattacharyya K, Bhattarai S, Bhutta ZA, Bijani A, Bikbov B, Britton G, Burstein R, Butt ZA, Cardenas R, Carvalho F, Castaneda-Orjuela CA, Castro F, Cerin E, Chang J-C, Collison ML, Cooper C, Cork MA, Daoud F, Das Gupta R, Weaver ND, De Neve J-W, Deribe K, Desalegn BB, Deshpande A, Desta M, Dhimal M, Diaz D, Dinberu MT, Djalalinia S, Dubey M, Dubljanin E, Duraes AR, Dwyer-Lindgren L, Earl L, Kalan ME, El-Khatib Z, Eshrati B, Faramarzi M, Fareed M, Faro A, Fereshtehnejad S-M, Fernandes E, Filip I, Fischer F, Fukumoto T, Garcia JA, Gill PS, Gill TK, Gona PN, Gopalani SV, Grada A, Guo Y, Gupta R, Gupta V, Haj-Mirzaian A, Haj-Mirzaian A, Hamadeh RR, Hamidi S, Hasan M, Hassen HY, Hendrie D, Henok A, Henry NJ, Hernandez Prado B, Herteliu C, Hole MK, Hossain N, Hosseinzadeh M, Hu G, Ilesanmi OS, Irvani SSN, Islam SMS, Izadi N, Jakovljevic M, Jha RP, Ji JS, Jonas JB, Shushtari ZJ, Jozwiak JJ, Kanchan T, Kasaeian A, Karyani AK, Keiyoro PN, Kesavachandran CN, Khader YS, Khafaie MA, Khan EA, Khater MM, Kiadaliri AA, Kiirithio DN, Kim YJ, Kimokoti RW, Kinyoki DK, Kisa A, Kosen S, Koyanagi A, Krishan K, Defo BK, Kumar M, Kumar P, Lami FH, Lee PH, Levine AJ, Li S, Liao Y, Lim L-L, Listl S, Lopez JCF, Majdan M, Majdzadeh R, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Mansournia MA, Martins-Melo FR, Masaka A, Massenburg BB, Mayala BK, Mehta KM, Mendoza W, Mensah GA, Meretoja TJ, Mestrovic T, Miller TR, Mini GK, Mirrakhimov EM, Moazen B, Mohammad DK, Darwesh AM, Mohammed S, Mohebi F, Mokdad AH, Monasta L, Moodley Y, Moosazadeh M, Moradi G, Moet al., 2021, Mapping subnational HIV mortality in six Latin American countries with incomplete vital registration systems, BMC Medicine, Vol: 19, Pages: 1-25, ISSN: 1741-7015

BackgroundHuman immunodeficiency virus (HIV) remains a public health priority in Latin America. While the burden of HIV is historically concentrated in urban areas and high-risk groups, subnational estimates that cover multiple countries and years are missing. This paucity is partially due to incomplete vital registration (VR) systems and statistical challenges related to estimating mortality rates in areas with low numbers of HIV deaths. In this analysis, we address this gap and provide novel estimates of the HIV mortality rate and the number of HIV deaths by age group, sex, and municipality in Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Guatemala, and Mexico.MethodsWe performed an ecological study using VR data ranging from 2000 to 2017, dependent on individual country data availability. We modeled HIV mortality using a Bayesian spatially explicit mixed-effects regression model that incorporates prior information on VR completeness. We calibrated our results to the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.ResultsAll countries displayed over a 40-fold difference in HIV mortality between municipalities with the highest and lowest age-standardized HIV mortality rate in the last year of study for men, and over a 20-fold difference for women. Despite decreases in national HIV mortality in all countries—apart from Ecuador—across the period of study, we found broad variation in relative changes in HIV mortality at the municipality level and increasing relative inequality over time in all countries. In all six countries included in this analysis, 50% or more HIV deaths were concentrated in fewer than 10% of municipalities in the latest year of study. In addition, national age patterns reflected shifts in mortality to older age groups—the median age group among decedents ranged from 30 to 45 years of age at the municipality level in Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico in 2017.ConclusionsOur subnational estimates of HIV mortality revealed significant spatial variati

Journal article

Lozano R, Fullman N, Mumford JE, Knight M, Barthelemy CM, Abbafati C, Abbastabar H, Abd-Allah F, Abdollahi M, Abedi A, Abolhassani H, Abosetugn AE, Abreu LG, Abrigo MRM, Abu Haimed AK, Abushouk AI, Adabi M, Adebayo OM, Adekanmbi V, Adelson J, Adetokunboh OO, Adham D, Advani SM, Afshin A, Agarwal G, Agasthi P, Aghamir SMK, Agrawal A, Ahmad T, Akinyemi RO, Alahdab F, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Albertson SB, Alemu YM, Alhassan RK, Ali M, Ali S, Alipour V, Aljunid SM, Alla F, Almadi MAH, Almasi A, Almasi-Hashiani A, Almasri NA, Al-Mekhlafi HM, Almulhim AM, Alonso J, Al-Raddadi RM, Altirkawi KA, Alvis-Guzman N, Alvis-Zakzuk NJ, Amini S, Amini-Rarani M, Amiri F, Amit AML, Amugsi DA, Ancuceanu R, Anderlini D, Andrei CL, Androudi S, Ansari F, Ansari-Moghaddam A, Antonio CAT, Antony CM, Antriyandarti E, Anvari D, Anwer R, Arabloo J, Arab-Zozani M, Aravkin AY, Aremu O, Ärnlöv J, Asaad M, Asadi-Aliabadi M, Asadi-Pooya AA, Ashbaugh C, Athari SS, Atout MMW, Ausloos M, Avila-Burgos L, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Ayano G, Ayanore MA, Aynalem YA, Aynalem GL, Ayza MA, Azari S, Azzopardi PS, B DB, Babaee E, Badiye AD, Bahrami MA, Baig AA, Bakhshaei MH, Bakhtiari A, Bakkannavar SM, Balachandran A, Balassyano S, Banach M, Banerjee SK, Banik PC, Bante AB, Bante SA, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen TW, Barrero LH, Bassat Q, Basu S, Baune BT, Bayati M, Baye BA, Bedi N, Beghi E, Behzadifar M, Bekuma TTT, Bell ML, Bensenor IM, Berman AE, Bernabe E, Bernstein RS, Bhagavathula AS, Bhandari D, Bhardwaj P, Bhat AG, Bhattacharyya K, Bhattarai S, Bhutta ZA, Bijani A, Bikbov B, Bilano V, Biondi A, Birihane BM, Bockarie MJ, Bohlouli S, Bojia HA, Bolla SRR, Boloor A, Brady OJ, Braithwaite D, Briant PS, Briggs AM, Briko NI, Burugina Nagaraja S, Busse R, Butt ZA, Caetano dos Santos FL, Cahuana-Hurtado L, Cámera LA, Cárdenas R, Carreras G, Carrero JJ, Carvalho F, Castaldelli-Maia JM, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Castelpietra G, Castro F, Catalá-López F, Causey K, Cederroth CR, Cercy KM, Cerin E, Chandan JS, Chang AY, Charan Jet al., 2020, Measuring universal health coverage based on an index of effective coverage of health services in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, The Lancet, Vol: 396, Pages: 1250-1284, ISSN: 0140-6736

BackgroundAchieving universal health coverage (UHC) involves all people receiving the health services they need, of high quality, without experiencing financial hardship. Making progress towards UHC is a policy priority for both countries and global institutions, as highlighted by the agenda of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and WHO's Thirteenth General Programme of Work (GPW13). Measuring effective coverage at the health-system level is important for understanding whether health services are aligned with countries' health profiles and are of sufficient quality to produce health gains for populations of all ages.MethodsBased on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we assessed UHC effective coverage for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Drawing from a measurement framework developed through WHO's GPW13 consultation, we mapped 23 effective coverage indicators to a matrix representing health service types (eg, promotion, prevention, and treatment) and five population-age groups spanning from reproductive and newborn to older adults (≥65 years). Effective coverage indicators were based on intervention coverage or outcome-based measures such as mortality-to-incidence ratios to approximate access to quality care; outcome-based measures were transformed to values on a scale of 0–100 based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile of location-year values. We constructed the UHC effective coverage index by weighting each effective coverage indicator relative to its associated potential health gains, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years for each location-year and population-age group. For three tests of validity (content, known-groups, and convergent), UHC effective coverage index performance was generally better than that of other UHC service coverage indices from WHO (ie, the current metric for SDG indicator 3.8.1 on UHC service coverage), the World Bank, and GBD 2017. We quantified

Journal article

Haagsma JA, Olij BF, Majdan M, van Beeck EF, Vos T, Castle CD, Dingels ZV, Fox JT, Hamilton EB, Liu Z, Roberts NLS, Sylte DO, Aremu O, Bärnighausen TW, Borzì AM, Briggs AM, Carrero JJ, Cooper C, El-Khatib Z, Ellingsen CL, Fereshtehnejad S-M, Filip I, Fischer F, Haro JM, Jonas JB, Kiadaliri AA, Koyanagi A, Lunevicius R, Meretoja TJ, Mohammed S, Pathak A, Radfar A, Rawaf S, Rawaf DL, Riera LS, Shiue I, Vasankari TJ, James SL, Polinder Set al., 2020, Falls in older aged adults in 22 European countries: incidence, mortality and burden of disease from 1990 to 2017, Injury Prevention, Vol: 26, Pages: i67-i74, ISSN: 1353-8047

Introduction Falls in older aged adults are an important public health problem. Insight into differences in fall-related injury rates between countries can serve as important input for identifying and evaluating prevention strategies. The objectives of this study were to compare Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 estimates on incidence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to fall-related injury in older adults across 22 countries in the Western European region and to examine changes over a 28-year period.Methods We performed a secondary database descriptive study using the GBD 2017 results on age-standardised fall-related injury in older adults aged 70 years and older in 22 countries from 1990 to 2017.Results In 2017, in the Western European region, 13 840 per 100 000 (uncertainty interval (UI) 11 837–16 113) older adults sought medical treatment for fall-related injury, ranging from 7594 per 100 000 (UI 6326–9032) in Greece to 19 796 per 100 000 (UI 15 536–24 233) in Norway. Since 1990, fall-related injury DALY rates showed little change for the whole region, but patterns varied widely between countries. Some countries (eg, Belgium and Netherlands) have lost their favourable positions due to an increasing fall-related injury burden of disease since 1990.Conclusions From 1990 to 2017, there was considerable variation in fall-related injury incidence, mortality, DALY rates and its composites in the 22 countries in the Western European region. It may be useful to assess which fall prevention measures have been taken in countries that showed continuous low or decreasing incidence, death and DALY rates despite ageing of the population.

Journal article

James SL, Castle CD, Dingels ZV, Fox JT, Hamilton EB, Liu Z, S Roberts NL, Sylte DO, Henry NJ, LeGrand KE, Abdelalim A, Abdoli A, Abdollahpour I, Abdulkader RS, Abedi A, Abosetugn AE, Abushouk AI, Adebayo OM, Agudelo-Botero M, Ahmad T, Ahmed R, Ahmed MB, Eddine Aichour MT, Alahdab F, Alamene GM, Alanezi FM, Alebel A, Alema NM, Alghnam SA, Al-Hajj S, Ali BA, Ali S, Alikhani M, Alinia C, Alipour V, Aljunid SM, Almasi-Hashiani A, Almasri NA, Altirkawi K, Abdeldayem Amer YS, Amini S, Loreche Amit AM, Andrei CL, Ansari-Moghaddam A, T Antonio CA, Yaw Appiah SC, Arabloo J, Arab-Zozani M, Arefi Z, Aremu O, Ariani F, Arora A, Asaad M, Asghari B, Awoke N, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Ayano G, Ayanore MA, Azari S, Azarian G, Badawi A, Badiye AD, Bagli E, Baig AA, Bairwa M, Bakhtiari A, Balachandran A, Banach M, Banerjee SK, Banik PC, Banstola A, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen TW, Barrero LH, Barzegar A, Bayati M, Baye BA, Bedi N, Behzadifar M, Bekuma TT, Belete H, Benjet C, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Berhe K, Bhardwaj P, Bhat AG, Bhattacharyya K, Bibi S, Bijani A, Bin Sayeed MS, Borges G, Borzì AM, Boufous S, Brazinova A, Briko NI, Budhathoki SS, Car J, Cárdenas R, Carvalho F, Castaldelli-Maia JM, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Castelpietra G, Catalá-López F, Cerin E, Chandan JS, Chanie WF, Chattu SK, Chattu VK, Chatziralli I, Chaudhary N, Cho DY, Kabir Chowdhury MA, Chu D-T, Colquhoun SM, Constantin M-M, Costa VM, Damiani G, Daryani A, Dávila-Cervantes CA, Demeke FM, Demis AB, Demoz GT, Demsie DG, Derakhshani A, Deribe K, Desai R, Nasab MD, da Silva DD, Dibaji Forooshani ZS, Doyle KE, Driscoll TR, Dubljanin E, Adema BD, Eagan AW, Eftekhari A, Ehsani-Chimeh E, Sayed Zaki ME, Elemineh DA, El-Jaafary SI, El-Khatib Z, Ellingsen CL, Emamian MH, Endalew DA, Eskandarieh S, Faris PS, Faro A, Farzadfar F, Fatahi Y, Fekadu W, Ferede TY, Fereshtehnejad S-M, Fernandes E, Ferrara P, Feyissa GT, Filip I, Fischer F, Folayan MO, Foroutan M, Francis JM, Franklin RC, Fukumoto T, Geberemariyam BS, Gebre AK, Gebreet al., 2020, Global injury morbidity and mortality from 1990 to 2017: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017, Injury Prevention, Vol: 26, Pages: i96-i114, ISSN: 1353-8047

BACKGROUND: Past research in population health trends has shown that injuries form a substantial burden of population health loss. Regular updates to injury burden assessments are critical. We report Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 Study estimates on morbidity and mortality for all injuries. METHODS: We reviewed results for injuries from the GBD 2017 study. GBD 2017 measured injury-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) using the Cause of Death Ensemble model. To measure non-fatal injuries, GBD 2017 modelled injury-specific incidence and converted this to prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs). YLLs and YLDs were summed to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). FINDINGS: In 1990, there were 4 260 493 (4 085 700 to 4 396 138) injury deaths, which increased to 4 484 722 (4 332 010 to 4 585 554) deaths in 2017, while age-standardised mortality decreased from 1079 (1073 to 1086) to 738 (730 to 745) per 100 000. In 1990, there were 354 064 302 (95% uncertainty interval: 338 174 876 to 371 610 802) new cases of injury globally, which increased to 520 710 288 (493 430 247 to 547 988 635) new cases in 2017. During this time, age-standardised incidence decreased non-significantly from 6824 (6534 to 7147) to 6763 (6412 to 7118) per 100 000. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALYs decreased from 4947 (4655 to 5233) per 100 000 to 3267 (3058 to 3505). INTERPRETATION: Injuries are an important cause of health loss globally, though mortality has declined between 1990 and 2017. Future research in injury burden should focus on prevention in high-burden populations, improving data collection and ensuring access to medical care.

Journal article

James SL, Lucchesi LR, Bisignano C, Castle CD, Dingels ZV, Fox JT, Hamilton EB, Henry NJ, McCracken D, Roberts NLS, Sylte DO, Ahmadi A, Ahmed MB, Alahdab F, Alipour V, Andualem Z, Antonio CAT, Arabloo J, Badiye AD, Bagherzadeh M, Banstola A, Bärnighausen TW, Barzegar A, Bayati M, Bhaumik S, Bijani A, Bukhman G, Carvalho F, Crowe CS, Dalal K, Daryani A, Nasab MD, Do HT, Do HP, Endries AY, Fernandes E, Filip I, Fischer F, Fukumoto T, Gebremedhin KBB, Gebremeskel GG, Gilani SA, Haagsma JA, Hamidi S, Hostiuc S, Househ M, Igumbor EU, Ilesanmi OS, Irvani SSN, Jayatilleke AU, Kahsay A, Kapoor N, Kasaeian A, Khader YS, Khalil IA, Khan EA, Khazaee-Pool M, Kokubo Y, Lopez AD, Madadin M, Majdan M, Maled V, Malekzadeh R, Manafi N, Manafi A, Mangalam S, Massenburg BB, Meles HG, Menezes RG, Meretoja TJ, Miazgowski B, Miller TR, Mohammadian-Hafshejani A, Mohammadpourhodki R, Morrison SD, Negoi I, Nguyen TH, Nguyen SH, Nguyen CT, Nixon MR, Olagunju AT, Olagunju TO, Padubidri JR, Polinder S, Rabiee N, Rabiee M, Radfar A, Rahimi-Movaghar V, Rawaf S, Rawaf DL, Rezapour A, Rickard J, Roro EM, Roy N, Safari-Faramani R, Salamati P, Samy AM, Satpathy M, Sawhney M, Schwebel DC, Senthilkumaran S, Sepanlou SG, Shigematsu M, Soheili A, Stokes MA, Tohidinik HR, Tran BX, Valdez PR, Wijeratne T, Yisma E, Zaidi Z, Zamani M, Zhang Z-J, Hay SI, Mokdad AHet al., 2020, Epidemiology of injuries from re, heat and hot substances: global, regional and national morbidity and mortality estimates from the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study, Injury Prevention, Vol: 26, Pages: i36-i45, ISSN: 1353-8047

Background Past research has shown how fires, heat and hot substances are important causes of health loss globally. Detailed estimates of the morbidity and mortality from these injuries could help drive preventative measures and improved access to care.Methods We used the Global Burden of Disease 2017 framework to produce three main results. First, we produced results on incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, deaths, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life years from 1990 to 2017 for 195 countries and territories. Second, we analysed these results to measure mortality-to-incidence ratios by location. Third, we reported the measures above in terms of the cause of fire, heat and hot substances and the types of bodily injuries that result.Results Globally, there were 8 991 468 (7 481 218 to 10 740 897) new fire, heat and hot substance injuries in 2017 with 120 632 (101 630 to 129 383) deaths. At the global level, the age-standardised mortality caused by fire, heat and hot substances significantly declined from 1990 to 2017, but regionally there was variability in age-standardised incidence with some regions experiencing an increase (eg, Southern Latin America) and others experiencing a significant decrease (eg, High-income North America).Conclusions The incidence and mortality of injuries that result from fire, heat and hot substances affect every region of the world but are most concentrated in middle and lower income areas. More resources should be invested in measuring these injuries as well as in improving infrastructure, advancing safety measures and ensuring access to care.

Journal article

Haagsma JA, James SL, Castle CD, Dingels ZV, Fox JT, Hamilton EB, Liu Z, Lucchesi LR, Roberts NLS, Sylte DO, Adebayo OM, Ahmadi A, Ahmed MB, Aichour MTE, Alahdab F, Alghnam SA, Aljunid SM, Al-Raddadi RM, Alsharif U, Altirkawi K, Anjomshoa M, Antonio CAT, Appiah SCY, Aremu O, Arora A, Asayesh H, Assadi R, Awasthi A, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Balalla S, Banstola A, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen TW, Bazargan-Hejazi S, Bedi N, Behzadifar M, Behzadifar M, Benjet C, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Bhaumik S, Bhutta ZA, Bijani A, Borges G, Borschmann R, Bose D, Boufous S, Brazinova A, Campuzano Rincon JC, Cárdenas R, Carrero JJ, Carvalho F, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Catalá-López F, Choi J-YJ, Christopher DJ, Crowe CS, Dalal K, Daryani A, Davitoiu DV, Degenhardt L, De Leo D, De Neve J-W, Deribe K, Dessie GA, deVeber GA, Dharmaratne SD, Doan LP, Dolan KA, Driscoll TR, Dubey M, El-Khatib Z, Ellingsen CL, El Sayed Zaki M, Endries AY, Eskandarieh S, Faro A, Fereshtehnejad S-M, Fernandes E, Filip I, Fischer F, Franklin RC, Fukumoto T, Gezae KE, Gill TK, Goulart AC, Grada A, Guo Y, Gupta R, Haghparast Bidgoli H, Haj-Mirzaian A, Haj-Mirzaian A, Hamadeh RR, Hamidi S, Haro JM, Hassankhani H, Hassen HY, Havmoeller R, Hendrie D, Henok A, Híjar M, Hole MK, Homaie Rad E, Hossain N, Hostiuc S, Hu G, Igumbor EU, Ilesanmi OS, Irvani SSN, Islam SMS, Ivers RQ, Jacobsen KH, Jahanmehr N, Jakovljevic M, Jayatilleke AU, Jha RP, Jonas JB, Jorjoran Shushtari Z, Jozwiak JJ, Jürisson M, Kabir A, Kalani R, Kasaeian A, Kelbore AG, Kengne AP, Khader YS, Khafaie MA, Khalid N, Khan EA, Khoja AT, Kiadaliri AA, Kim Y-E, Kim D, Kisa A, Koyanagi A, Kuate Defo B, Kucuk Bicer B, Kumar M, Lalloo R, Lam H, Lami FH, Lansingh VC, Leasher JL, Li S, Linn S, Lunevicius R, Machado FR, Magdy Abd El Razek H, Magdy Abd El Razek M, Mahotra NB, Majdan M, Majeed A, Malekzadeh R, Malik MA, Malta DC, Manda A-L, Mansournia MA, Massenburg BB, Maulik PK, Meheretu HAA, Mehndiratta MM, Melese A, Mendoza W, Mengesha MM, Meretoja TJ, Meretoja A Met al., 2020, Burden of injury along the development spectrum: associations between the Socio-demographic Index and disability-adjusted life year estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017, Injury Prevention, Vol: 26, Pages: i12-i626, ISSN: 1353-8047

BACKGROUND: The epidemiological transition of non-communicable diseases replacing infectious diseases as the main contributors to disease burden has been well documented in global health literature. Less focus, however, has been given to the relationship between sociodemographic changes and injury. The aim of this study was to examine the association between disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from injury for 195 countries and territories at different levels along the development spectrum between 1990 and 2017 based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 estimates. METHODS: Injury mortality was estimated using the GBD mortality database, corrections for garbage coding and CODEm-the cause of death ensemble modelling tool. Morbidity estimation was based on surveys and inpatient and outpatient data sets for 30 cause-of-injury with 47 nature-of-injury categories each. The Socio-demographic Index (SDI) is a composite indicator that includes lagged income per capita, average educational attainment over age 15 years and total fertility rate. RESULTS: For many causes of injury, age-standardised DALY rates declined with increasing SDI, although road injury, interpersonal violence and self-harm did not follow this pattern. Particularly for self-harm opposing patterns were observed in regions with similar SDI levels. For road injuries, this effect was less pronounced. CONCLUSIONS: The overall global pattern is that of declining injury burden with increasing SDI. However, not all injuries follow this pattern, which suggests multiple underlying mechanisms influencing injury DALYs. There is a need for a detailed understanding of these patterns to help to inform national and global efforts to address injury-related health outcomes across the development spectrum.

Journal article

Wang H, Abbas KM, Abbasifard M, Abbasi-Kangevari M, Abbastabar H, Abd-Allah F, Abdelalim A, Abolhassani H, Abreu LG, Abrigo MRM, Abushouk AI, Adabi M, Adair T, Adebayo OM, Adedeji IA, Adekanmbi V, Adeoye AM, Adetokunboh OO, Advani SM, Afshin A, Aghaali M, Agrawal A, Ahmadi K, Ahmadieh H, Ahmed MB, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alam T, Alanezi FM, Alanzi TM, Alcalde-Rabanal JE, Ali M, Alicandro G, Alijanzadeh M, Alinia C, Alipour V, Alizade H, Aljunid SM, Allebeck P, Almadi MAH, Almasi-Hashiani A, Al-Mekhlafi HM, Altirkawi KA, Alumran AK, Alvis-Guzman N, Amini-Rarani M, Aminorroaya A, Amit AML, Ancuceanu R, Andrei CL, Androudi S, Angus C, Anjomshoa M, Ansari F, Ansari I, Ansari-Moghaddam A, Antonio CAT, Antony CM, Anvari D, Appiah SCY, Arabloo J, Arab-Zozani M, Aravkin AY, Aremu O, Ärnlöv J, Aryal KK, Asadi-Pooya AA, Asgari S, Asghari Jafarabadi M, Atteraya MS, Ausloos M, Avila-Burgos L, Avokpaho EFGA, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Ayano G, Ayanore MA, Azarian G, Babaee E, Badiye AD, Bagli E, Bahrami MA, Bakhtiari A, Balassyano S, Banach M, Banik PC, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen TW, Barzegar A, Basu S, Baune BT, Bayati M, Bazmandegan G, Bedi N, Bell ML, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Berhe K, Berman AE, Bertolacci GJ, Bhageerathy R, Bhala N, Bhattacharyya K, Bhutta ZA, Bijani A, Biondi A, Bisanzio D, Bisignano C, Biswas RK, Bjørge T, Bohlouli S, Bohluli M, Bolla SRR, Borzì AM, Borzouei S, Brady OJ, Braithwaite D, Brauer M, Briko AN, Briko NI, Bumgarner BR, Burugina Nagaraja S, Butt ZA, Caetano dos Santos FL, Cai T, Callender CSKH, Cámera LLAA, Campos-Nonato IR, Cárdenas R, Carreras G, Carrero JJ, Carvalho F, Castaldelli-Maia JM, Castelpietra G, Castro F, Catalá-López F, Cederroth CR, Cerin E, Chattu VK, Chin KL, Chu D-T, Ciobanu LG, Cirillo M, Comfort H, Costa VM, Cowden RG, Cromwell EA, Croneberger AJ, Cunningham M, Dahlawi SMA, Damiani G, D'Amico E, Dandona L, Dandona R, Dargan PI, Darwesh AM, Daryani A, Das Gupta R, das Neves J, Davletov K, De Leo D, Denova-Gutiérrez E, Deribe K, Derveniset al., 2020, Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2019: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, The Lancet, Vol: 396, Pages: 1160-1203, ISSN: 0140-6736

BackgroundAccurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019.Methods8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10–14 and 50–54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated usin

Journal article

Vos T, Lim SS, Abbafati C, Abbas KM, Abbasi M, Abbasifard M, Abbasi-Kangevari M, Abbastabar H, Abd-Allah F, Abdelalim A, Abdollahi M, Abdollahpour I, Abolhassani H, Aboyans V, Abrams EM, Abreu LG, Abrigo MRM, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abushouk AI, Acebedo A, Ackerman IN, Adabi M, Adamu AA, Adebayo OM, Adekanmbi V, Adelson JD, Adetokunboh OO, Adham D, Afshari M, Afshin A, Agardh EE, Agarwal G, Agesa KM, Aghaali M, Aghamir SMK, Agrawal A, Ahmad T, Ahmadi A, Ahmadi M, Ahmadieh H, Ahmadpour E, Akalu TY, Akinyemi RO, Akinyemiju T, Akombi B, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alam N, Alam S, Alam T, Alanzi TM, Albertson SB, Alcalde-Rabanal JE, Alema NM, Ali M, Ali S, Alicandro G, Alijanzadeh M, Alinia C, Alipour V, Aljunid SM, Alla F, Allebeck P, Almasi-Hashiani A, Alonso J, Al-Raddadi RM, Altirkawi KA, Alvis-Guzman N, Alvis-Zakzuk NJ, Amini S, Amini-Rarani M, Aminorroaya A, Amiri F, Amit AML, Amugsi DA, Amul GGH, Anderlini D, Andrei CL, Andrei T, Anjomshoa M, Ansari F, Ansari I, Ansari-Moghaddam A, Antonio CAT, Antony CM, Antriyandarti E, Anvari D, Anwer R, Arabloo J, Arab-Zozani M, Aravkin AY, Ariani F, Ärnlöv J, Aryal KK, Arzani A, Asadi-Aliabadi M, Asadi-Pooya AA, Asghari B, Ashbaugh C, Atnafu DD, Atre SR, Ausloos F, Ausloos M, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Ayano G, Ayanore MA, Aynalem YA, Azari S, Azarian G, Azene ZN, Babaee E, Badawi A, Bagherzadeh M, Bakhshaei MH, Bakhtiari A, Balakrishnan S, Balalla S, Balassyano S, Banach M, Banik PC, Bannick MS, Bante AB, Baraki AG, Barboza MA, Barker-Collo SL, Barthelemy CM, Barua L, Barzegar A, Basu S, Baune BT, Bayati M, Bazmandegan G, Bedi N, Beghi E, Béjot Y, Bello AK, Bender RG, Bennett DA, Bennitt FB, Bensenor IM, Benziger CP, Berhe K, Bernabe E, Bertolacci GJ, Bhageerathy R, Bhala N, Bhandari D, Bhardwaj P, Bhattacharyya K, Bhutta ZA, Bibi S, Biehl MH, Bikbov B, Bin Sayeed MS, Biondi A, Birihane BM, Bisanzio D, Bisignano C, Biswas RK, Bohlouli S, Bohluli M, Bolla SRR, Boloor A, Boon-Dooley AS, Borges G, Borzì AM, Bourne R, Brady OJ, Brauer M, Brayne C, Breet al., 2020, Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, The Lancet, Vol: 396, Pages: 1204-1222, ISSN: 0140-6736

BackgroundIn an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries.MethodsGBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of

Journal article

Murray CJL, Aravkin AY, Zheng P, Abbafati C, Abbas KM, Abbasi-Kangevari M, Abd-Allah F, Abdelalim A, Abdollahi M, Abdollahpour I, Abegaz KH, Abolhassani H, Aboyans V, Abreu LG, Abrigo MRM, Abualhasan A, Abu-Raddad LJ, Abushouk AI, Adabi M, Adekanmbi V, Adeoye AM, Adetokunboh OO, Adham D, Advani SM, Agarwal G, Aghamir SMK, Agrawal A, Ahmad T, Ahmadi K, Ahmadi M, Ahmadieh H, Ahmed MB, Akalu TY, Akinyemi RO, Akinyemiju T, Akombi B, Akunna CJ, Alahdab F, Al-Aly Z, Alam K, Alam S, Alam T, Alanezi FM, Alanzi TM, Alemu BW, Alhabib KF, Ali M, Ali S, Alicandro G, Alinia C, Alipour V, Alizade H, Aljunid SM, Alla F, Allebeck P, Almasi-Hashiani A, Al-Mekhlafi HM, Alonso J, Altirkawi KA, Amini-Rarani M, Amiri F, Amugsi DA, Ancuceanu R, Anderlini D, Anderson JA, Andrei CL, Andrei T, Angus C, Anjomshoa M, Ansari F, Ansari-Moghaddam A, Antonazzo IC, Antonio CAT, Antony CM, Antriyandarti E, Anvari D, Anwer R, Appiah SCY, Arabloo J, Arab-Zozani M, Ariani F, Armoon B, Ärnlöv J, Arzani A, Asadi-Aliabadi M, Asadi-Pooya AA, Ashbaugh C, Assmus M, Atafar Z, Atnafu DD, Atout MMW, Ausloos F, Ausloos M, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Ayano G, Ayanore MA, Azari S, Azarian G, Azene ZN, Badawi A, Badiye AD, Bahrami MA, Bakhshaei MH, Bakhtiari A, Bakkannavar SM, Baldasseroni A, Ball K, Ballew SH, Balzi D, Banach M, Banerjee SK, Bante AB, Baraki AG, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen TW, Barrero LH, Barthelemy CM, Barua L, Basu S, Baune BT, Bayati M, Becker JS, Bedi N, Beghi E, Béjot Y, Bell ML, Bennitt FB, Bensenor IM, Berhe K, Berman AE, Bhagavathula AS, Bhageerathy R, Bhala N, Bhandari D, Bhattacharyya K, Bhutta ZA, Bijani A, Bikbov B, Bin Sayeed MS, Biondi A, Birihane BM, Bisignano C, Biswas RK, Bitew H, Bohlouli S, Bohluli M, Boon-Dooley AS, Borges G, Borzì AM, Borzouei S, Bosetti C, Boufous S, Braithwaite D, Breitborde NJK, Breitner S, Brenner H, Briant PS, Briko AN, Briko NI, Britton GB, Bryazka D, Bumgarner BR, Burkart K, Burnett RT, Burugina Nagaraja S, Butt ZA, Caetano dos Santos FL, Cahill LE, Cámeraet al., 2020, Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, The Lancet, Vol: 396, Pages: 1223-1249, ISSN: 0140-6736

BackgroundRigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardised and comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of risk factor exposure, relative risk, and attributable burden of disease.MethodsGBD 2019 estimated attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 87 risk factors and combinations of risk factors, at the global level, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. GBD uses a hierarchical list of risk factors so that specific risk factors (eg, sodium intake), and related aggregates (eg, diet quality), are both evaluated. This method has six analytical steps. (1) We included 560 risk–outcome pairs that met criteria for convincing or probable evidence on the basis of research studies. 12 risk–outcome pairs included in GBD 2017 no longer met inclusion criteria and 47 risk–outcome pairs for risks already included in GBD 2017 were added based on new evidence. (2) Relative risks were estimated as a function of exposure based on published systematic reviews, 81 systematic reviews done for GBD 2019, and meta-regression. (3) Levels of exposure in each age-sex-location-year included in the study were estimated based on all available data sources using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression method, or alternative methods. (4) We determined, from published trials or cohort studies, the level of exposure associated with minimum risk, called the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. (5) Attributable deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs were computed by multiplying population attributable fractions (PAFs) by the relevant outcome quant

Journal article

Murray CJL, Abbafati C, Abbas KM, Abbasi M, Abbasi-Kangevari M, Abd-Allah F, Abdollahi M, Abedi P, Abedi A, Abolhassani H, Aboyans V, Abreu LG, Abrigo MRM, Abu-Gharbieh E, Abu Haimed AK, Abushouk AI, Acebedo A, Ackerman IN, Adabi M, Adamu AA, Adebayo OM, Adelson JD, Adetokunboh OO, Afarideh M, Afshin A, Agarwal G, Agrawal A, Ahmad T, Ahmadi K, Ahmadi M, Ahmed MB, Aji B, Akinyemiju T, Akombi B, Alahdab F, Alam K, Alanezi FM, Alanzi TM, Albertson SB, Alemu BW, Alemu YM, Alhabib KF, Ali M, Ali S, Alicandro G, Alipour V, Alizade H, Aljunid SM, Alla F, Allebeck P, Almadi MAH, Almasi-Hashiani A, Al-Mekhlafi HM, Almulhim AM, Alonso J, Al-Raddadi RM, Altirkawi KA, Alvis-Guzman N, Amare B, Amare AT, Amini S, Amit AML, Amugsi DA, Anbesu EW, Ancuceanu R, Anderlini D, Anderson JA, Andrei T, Andrei CL, Anjomshoa M, Ansari F, Ansari-Moghaddam A, Antonio CAT, Antony CM, Anvari D, Appiah SCY, Arabloo J, Arab-Zozani M, Aravkin AY, Arba AAK, Aripov T, Ärnlöv J, Arowosegbe OO, Asaad M, Asadi-Aliabadi M, Asadi-Pooya AA, Ashbaugh C, Assmus M, Atout MMW, Ausloos M, Ausloos F, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Ayano G, Ayanore MA, Azari S, Azene ZN, B DB, Babaee E, Badawi A, Badiye AD, Bagherzadeh M, Bairwa M, Bakhtiari A, Bakkannavar SM, Balachandran A, Banach M, Banerjee SK, Banik PC, Baraki AG, Barker-Collo SL, Basaleem H, Basu S, Baune BT, Bayati M, Baye BA, Bedi N, Beghi E, Bell ML, Bensenor IM, Berhe K, Berman AE, Bhagavathula AS, Bhala N, Bhardwaj P, Bhattacharyya K, Bhattarai S, Bhutta ZA, Bijani A, Bikbov B, Biondi A, Bisignano C, Biswas RK, Bjørge T, Bohlouli S, Bohluli M, Bolla SRR, Boloor A, Bose D, Boufous S, Brady OJ, Braithwaite D, Brauer M, Breitborde NJK, Brenner H, Breusov AV, Briant PS, Briggs AM, Britton GB, Brugha T, Burugina Nagaraja S, Busse R, Butt ZA, Caetano dos Santos FL, Cámera LLAA, Campos-Nonato IR, Campuzano Rincon JC, Car J, Cárdenas R, Carreras G, Carrero JJ, Carvalho F, Castaldelli-Maia JM, Castelpietra G, Castro F, Catalá-López F, Causey K, Cederroth CR, Cercy KM Cet al., 2020, Five insights from the global burden of disease study 2019, The Lancet, Vol: 396, Pages: 1135-1159, ISSN: 0140-6736

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a rules-based synthesis of the available evidence on levels and trends in health outcomes, a diverse set of risk factors, and health system responses. GBD 2019 covered 204 countries and territories, as well as first administrative level disaggregations for 22 countries, from 1990 to 2019. Because GBD is highly standardised and comprehensive, spanning both fatal and non-fatal outcomes, and uses a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of hierarchical disease and injury causes, the study provides a powerful basis for detailed and broad insights on global health trends and emerging challenges. GBD 2019 incorporates data from 281 586 sources and provides more than 3·5 billion estimates of health outcome and health system measures of interest for global, national, and subnational policy dialogue. All GBD estimates are publicly available and adhere to the Guidelines on Accurate and Transparent Health Estimate Reporting. From this vast amount of information, five key insights that are important for health, social, and economic development strategies have been distilled. These insights are subject to the many limitations outlined in each of the component GBD capstone papers.

Journal article

Rawaf S, Allen L, Stigler FL, Kringos D, Quezada Yamamoto H, van Weel Cet al., 2020, Lessons on the COVID-19 pandemic, for and by primary care professionals worldwide, European Journal of General Practice, Vol: 26, Pages: 129-133, ISSN: 1381-4788

The COVID-19 pandemic has modified organisation and processes of primary care. In this paper,we aim to summarise experiences of international primary care systems. We explored personalaccounts and findings in reporting on the early experiences from primary care during the pandemic, through the online Global Forum on Universal Health Coverage and Primary Health Care.During the early stage of the pandemic, primary care continued as the first point of contact tothe health system but was poorly informed by policy makers on how to fulfil its role and illequipped to provide care while protecting staff and patients against further spread of the infection. In many countries, the creativity and initiatives of local health professionals led to theintroduction or extension of the use of telephone, e-mail and virtual consulting, and introducedtriaging to separate ‘suspected)’ COVID-19 from non-COVID-19 care. There were substantial concerns of collateral damage to the health of the population due to abandoned or postponed routine care.The pandemic presents important lessons to strengthen health systems through better connection between public health, primary care, and secondary care to cope better with future wavesof this and other pandemics.KEY MESSAGES It was fairly easy to convince the population to postpone contact with primary care in thefirst days when practices had to carry out a reorganisation and innovate to thenew situation. The bigger problem was encouraging people to resume seeking care as usual as quicklyas possible.

Journal article

Micah AE, Su Y, Global Burden of Disease Health Financing Collaborator Network, Rawaf S, Rawaf DLet al., 2020, Health sector spending and spending on HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, and malaria, and development assistance for health: progress towards Sustainable Development Goal 3, The Lancet, Vol: 396, Pages: 693-724, ISSN: 0140-6736

Background Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3 aims to “ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages”. While a substantial effort has been made to quantify progress towards SDG3, less research has focused on tracking spending towards this goal. We used spending estimates to measure progress in financing the priority areas of SDG3, examine the association between outcomes and financing, and identify where resource gains are most needed to achieve the SDG3 indicators for which data are available.Methods We estimated domestic health spending, disaggregated by source (government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private) from 1995 to 2017 for 195 countries and territories. For disease-specific health spending, we estimated spending for HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis for 135 low-income and middle-income countries, and malaria in 106 malaria-endemic countries, from 2000 to 2017. We also estimated development assistance for health (DAH)from 1990 to 2019, by source, disbursing development agency, recipient, and health focus area, including DAH for pandemic preparedness. Finally, we estimated future health spending for 195 countries and territories from 2018 until 2030. We report all spending estimates in inflation-adjusted 2019 US$, unless otherwise stated.Findings Since the development and implementation of the SDGs in 2015, global health spending has increased, reaching $7·9 trillion (95% uncertainty interval 7·8–8·0) in 2017 and is expected to increase to $11·0 trillion (10·7–11·2) by 2030. In 2017, in low-income and middle-income countries spending on HIV/AIDS was $20·2 billion (17·0–25·0) and on tuberculosis it was $10·9 billion (10·3–11·8), and in malaria-endemic countries spending on malaria was $5·1 billion (

Journal article

Local Burden of Disease 2019 Neglected Tropical Diseases Collaborators, 2020, The global distribution of lymphatic filariasis, 2000-18: a geospatial analysis., The Lancet Global Health, Vol: 8, Pages: e1186-e1194, ISSN: 2214-109X

BACKGROUND: Lymphatic filariasis is a neglected tropical disease that can cause permanent disability through disruption of the lymphatic system. This disease is caused by parasitic filarial worms that are transmitted by mosquitos. Mass drug administration (MDA) of antihelmintics is recommended by WHO to eliminate lymphatic filariasis as a public health problem. This study aims to produce the first geospatial estimates of the global prevalence of lymphatic filariasis infection over time, to quantify progress towards elimination, and to identify geographical variation in distribution of infection. METHODS: A global dataset of georeferenced surveyed locations was used to model annual 2000-18 lymphatic filariasis prevalence for 73 current or previously endemic countries. We applied Bayesian model-based geostatistics and time series methods to generate spatially continuous estimates of global all-age 2000-18 prevalence of lymphatic filariasis infection mapped at a resolution of 5 km2 and aggregated to estimate total number of individuals infected. FINDINGS: We used 14 927 datapoints to fit the geospatial models. An estimated 199 million total individuals (95% uncertainty interval 174-234 million) worldwide were infected with lymphatic filariasis in 2000, with totals for WHO regions ranging from 3·1 million (1·6-5·7 million) in the region of the Americas to 107 million (91-134 million) in the South-East Asia region. By 2018, an estimated 51 million individuals (43-63 million) were infected. Broad declines in prevalence are observed globally, but focal areas in Africa and southeast Asia remain less likely to have attained infection prevalence thresholds proposed to achieve local elimination. INTERPRETATION: Although the prevalence of lymphatic filariasis infection has declined since 2000, MDA is still necessary across large populations in Africa and Asia. Our mapped estimates can be used to identify areas where the probability of meeting infection thre

Journal article

Local Burden of Disease WaSH Collaborators, 2020, Mapping geographical inequalities in access to drinking water and sanitation facilities in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17., The Lancet Global Health, Vol: 8, Pages: e1162-e1185, ISSN: 2214-109X

BACKGROUND: Universal access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities is an essential human right, recognised in the Sustainable Development Goals as crucial for preventing disease and improving human wellbeing. Comprehensive, high-resolution estimates are important to inform progress towards achieving this goal. We aimed to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of access to drinking water and sanitation facilities. METHODS: We used a Bayesian geostatistical model and data from 600 sources across more than 88 low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) to estimate access to drinking water and sanitation facilities on continuous continent-wide surfaces from 2000 to 2017, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. We estimated mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive subcategories of facilities for drinking water (piped water on or off premises, other improved facilities, unimproved, and surface water) and sanitation facilities (septic or sewer sanitation, other improved, unimproved, and open defecation) with use of ordinal regression. We also estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths in children younger than 5 years attributed to unsafe facilities and estimated deaths that were averted by increased access to safe facilities in 2017, and analysed geographical inequality in access within LMICs. FINDINGS: Across LMICs, access to both piped water and improved water overall increased between 2000 and 2017, with progress varying spatially. For piped water, the safest water facility type, access increased from 40·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 39·4-40·7) to 50·3% (50·0-50·5), but was lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, where access to piped water was mostly concentrated in urban centres. Access to both sewer or septic sanitation and improved sanitation overall also increased across all LMICs during the study period. For sewer or septic sanitation, access was 46·3% (95% UI 46·1-

Journal article

James SL, Castle CD, Dingels ZV, Fox JT, Hamilton EB, Liu Z, Roberts NLS, Sylte DO, Bertolacci GJ, Cunningham M, Henry NJ, LeGrand KE, Abdelalim A, Abdollahpour I, Abdulkader RS, Abedi A, Abegaz KH, Abosetugn AE, Abushouk AI, Adebayo OM, Adsuar JC, Advani SM, Agudelo-Botero M, Ahmad T, Ahmed MB, Ahmed R, Eddine Aichour MT, Alahdab F, Alanezi FM, Alema NM, Alemu BW, Alghnam SA, Ali BA, Ali S, Alinia C, Alipour V, Aljunid SM, Almasi-Hashiani A, Almasri NA, Altirkawi K, Abdeldayem Amer YS, Andrei CL, Ansari-Moghaddam A, T Antonio CA, Anvari D, Yaw Appiah SC, Arabloo J, Arab-Zozani M, Arefi Z, Aremu O, Ariani F, Arora A, Asaad M, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Ayano G, Ayanore MA, Azarian G, Badawi A, Badiye AD, Baig AA, Bairwa M, Bakhtiari A, Balachandran A, Banach M, Banerjee SK, Banik PC, Banstola A, Barker-Collo SL, Bärnighausen TW, Barzegar A, Bayati M, Bazargan-Hejazi S, Bedi N, Behzadifar M, Belete H, Bennett DA, Bensenor IM, Berhe K, Bhagavathula AS, Bhardwaj P, Bhat AG, Bhattacharyya K, Bhutta ZA, Bibi S, Bijani A, Boloor A, Borges G, Borschmann R, Borzì AM, Boufous S, Braithwaite D, Briko NI, Brugha T, Budhathoki SS, Car J, Cárdenas R, Carvalho F, Castaldelli-Maia JM, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Castelpietra G, Catalá-López F, Cerin E, Chandan JS, Chapman JR, Chattu VK, Chattu SK, Chatziralli I, Chaudhary N, Cho DY, Choi J-YJ, Kabir Chowdhury MA, Christopher DJ, Chu D-T, Cicuttini FM, Coelho JM, Costa VM, Dahlawi SMA, Daryani A, Dávila-Cervantes CA, Leo DD, Demeke FM, Demoz GT, Demsie DG, Deribe K, Desai R, Nasab MD, Silva DDD, Dibaji Forooshani ZS, Do HT, Doyle KE, Driscoll TR, Dubljanin E, Adema BD, Eagan AW, Elemineh DA, El-Jaafary SI, El-Khatib Z, Ellingsen CL, Zaki MES, Eskandarieh S, Eyawo O, Faris PS, Faro A, Farzadfar F, Fereshtehnejad S-M, Fernandes E, Ferrara P, Fischer F, Folayan MO, Fomenkov AA, Foroutan M, Francis JM, Franklin RC, Fukumoto T, Geberemariyam BS, Gebremariam H, Gebremedhin KB, Gebremeskel LG, Gebremeskel GG, Gebremichael B, Gedefaw GA, Geta B, Geteet al., 2020, Estimating global injuries morbidity and mortality: methods and data used in the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study, Injury Prevention, Vol: 26, Pages: i125-i153, ISSN: 1353-8047

BACKGROUND: While there is a long history of measuring death and disability from injuries, modern research methods must account for the wide spectrum of disability that can occur in an injury, and must provide estimates with sufficient demographic, geographical and temporal detail to be useful for policy makers. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study used methods to provide highly detailed estimates of global injury burden that meet these criteria. METHODS: In this study, we report and discuss the methods used in GBD 2017 for injury morbidity and mortality burden estimation. In summary, these methods included estimating cause-specific mortality for every cause of injury, and then estimating incidence for every cause of injury. Non-fatal disability for each cause is then calculated based on the probabilities of suffering from different types of bodily injury experienced. RESULTS: GBD 2017 produced morbidity and mortality estimates for 38 causes of injury. Estimates were produced in terms of incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, cause-specific mortality, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life-years for a 28-year period for 22 age groups, 195 countries and both sexes. CONCLUSIONS: GBD 2017 demonstrated a complex and sophisticated series of analytical steps using the largest known database of morbidity and mortality data on injuries. GBD 2017 results should be used to help inform injury prevention policy making and resource allocation. We also identify important avenues for improving injury burden estimation in the future.

Journal article

Wiens KE, Lindstedt PA, Blacker BF, Johnson KB, Baumann MM, Schaeffer LE, Abbastabar H, Abd-Allah F, Abdelalim A, Abdollahpour I, Abegaz KH, Abejie AN, Abreu LG, Abrigo MRM, Abualhasan A, Accrombessi MMK, Acharya D, Adabi M, Adamu AA, Adebayo OM, Adedoyin RA, Adekanmbi V, Adetokunboh OO, Adhena BM, Afarideh M, Ahmad S, Ahmadi K, Ahmed AE, Ahmed MB, Ahmed R, Akalu TY, Alahdab F, Al-Aly Z, Alam N, Alam S, Alamene GM, Alanzi TM, Alcalde-Rabanal JE, Ali BA, Alijanzadeh M, Alipour V, Aljunid SM, Almasi A, Almasi-Hashiani A, Al-Mekhlafi HM, Altirkawi KA, Alvis-Guzman N, Alvis-Zakzuk NJ, Amini S, Amit AML, Andrei CL, Anjomshoa M, Anoushiravani A, Ansari F, Antonio CAT, Antony B, Antriyandarti E, Arabloo J, Aref HMA, Aremu O, Armoon B, Arora A, Aryal KK, Arzani A, Asadi-Aliabadi M, Atalay HT, Athari SS, Athari SM, Atre SR, Ausloos M, Awoke N, Ayala Quintanilla BP, Ayano G, Ayanore MA, Aynalem IV YA, Azari S, Azzopardi PS, Babaee E, Babalola TK, Badawi A, Bairwa M, Bakkannavar SM, Balakrishnan S, Bali AG, Banach M, Banoub JAM, Barac A, Bärnighausen TW, Basaleem H, Basu S, Bay VD, Bayati M, Baye E, Bedi N, Beheshti MMB, Behzadifar M, Behzadifar M, Bekele BB, Belayneh YM, Bell ML, Bennett DA, Berbada DA, Bernstein RS, Bhat AG, Bhattacharyya K, Bhattarai S, Bhaumik S, Bhutta ZA, Bijani A, Bikbov B, Birihane IV BM, Biswas RK, Bohlouli S, Bojia I HAA, Boufous S, Brady OJ, Bragazzi NL, Briko AN, Briko NI, Britton GB, Burugina Nagaraja S, Busse R, Butt ZA, Cámera LLAA, Campos-Nonato IR, Cano J, Car J, Cárdenas R, Carvalho F, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Castro F, Chanie WF, Chatterjee P, Chattu VK, Chichiabellu TYY, Chin KL, Christopher DJ, Chu D-T, Cormier NM, Costa VM, Culquichicon C, Daba MS, Damiani G, Dandona L, Dandona R, Dang AK, Darwesh AM, Darwish AH, Daryani A, Das JK, Das Gupta R, Dash AP, Davey G, Dávila-Cervantes CA, Davis AC, Davitoiu DV, De la Hoz FP, Demis AB, Demissie DB, Demissie GD, Demoz GT, Denova-Gutiérrez E, Deribe K, Desalew A, Deshpande A, Dharmaratne SD, Dhillonet al., 2020, Mapping geographical inequalities in oral rehydration therapy coverage in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000–17, The Lancet Global Health, Vol: 8, Pages: e1038-e1060, ISSN: 2214-109X

BackgroundOral rehydration solution (ORS) is a form of oral rehydration therapy (ORT) for diarrhoea that has the potential to drastically reduce child mortality; yet, according to UNICEF estimates, less than half of children younger than 5 years with diarrhoea in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) received ORS in 2016. A variety of recommended home fluids (RHF) exist as alternative forms of ORT; however, it is unclear whether RHF prevent child mortality. Previous studies have shown considerable variation between countries in ORS and RHF use, but subnational variation is unknown. This study aims to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of relative and absolute coverage of ORS, RHF, and ORT (use of either ORS or RHF) in LMICs.MethodsWe used a Bayesian geostatistical model including 15 spatial covariates and data from 385 household surveys across 94 LMICs to estimate annual proportions of children younger than 5 years of age with diarrhoea who received ORS or RHF (or both) on continuous continent-wide surfaces in 2000–17, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. Additionally, we analysed geographical inequality in coverage across administrative units and estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths averted by increased coverage over the study period. Uncertainty in the mean coverage estimates was calculated by taking 250 draws from the posterior joint distribution of the model and creating uncertainty intervals (UIs) with the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of those 250 draws.FindingsWhile ORS use among children with diarrhoea increased in some countries from 2000 to 2017, coverage remained below 50% in the majority (62·6%; 12 417 of 19 823) of second administrative-level units and an estimated 6 519 000 children (95% UI 5 254 000–7 733 000) with diarrhoea were not treated with any form of ORT in 2017. Increases in ORS use corresponded with declines in RHF in many locations, resulting in relatively co

Journal article

LBD Double Burden of Malnutrition Collaborators, 2020, Author correction: Mapping local patterns of childhood overweight and wasting in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2017., Nature Methods, Vol: 26, Pages: 1308-1308, ISSN: 1548-7091

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

Journal article

Reiner RC, Wiens KE, Deshpande A, Baumann MM, Lindstedt PA, Blacker BF, Troeger CE, Earl L, Munro SB, Abate D, Abbastabar H, Abd-Allah F, Abdelalim A, Abdollahpour I, Abdulkader RS, Abebe G, Abegaz KH, Abreu LG, Abrigo MRM, Accrombessi MMK, Acharya D, Adabi M, Adebayo OM, Adedoyin RA, Adekanmbi V, Adetokunboh OO, Adham D, Adhena BM, Afarideh M, Ahmadi K, Ahmadi M, Ahmed AE, Ahmed MB, Ahmed R, Ajumobi O, Akal CG, Akalu TY, Akanda AS, Alamene GM, Alanzi TM, Albright JR, Rabanal JEA, Alemnew BT, Alemu ZA, Ali BA, Ali M, Alijanzadeh M, Alipour V, Aljunid SM, Almasi A, Almasi-Hashiani A, Al-Mekhlafi HM, Altirkawi K, Alvis-Guzman N, Alvis-Zakzuk NJ, Amare AT, Amini S, Amit AML, Andrei CL, Anegago MT, Anjomshoa M, Ansari F, Antonio CAT, Antriyandarti E, Appiah SCY, Arabloo J, Aremu O, Armoon B, Aryal KK, Arzani A, Asadi-Lari M, Ashagre AF, Atalay HT, Atique S, Atre SR, Ausloos M, Avila-Burgos L, Awasthi A, Awoke N, Quintanilla BPA, Ayano G, Ayanore MA, Ayele AA, Aynalem YA, Azari S, Babaee E, Badawi A, Bakkannavar SM, Balakrishnan S, Bali AG, Banach M, Barac A, Barnighausen TW, Basaleem H, Bassat Q, Bayati M, Bedi N, Behzadifar M, Behzadifar M, Bekele YA, Bell ML, Bennett DA, Berbada DA, Beyranvand T, Bhat AG, Bhattacharyya K, Bhattarai S, Bhaumik S, Bijani A, Bikbov B, Biswas RK, Bogale KA, Bohlouli S, Brady OJ, Bragazzi NL, Briko AN, Briko NI, Nagaraja SB, Butt ZA, Campos-Nonato IR, Rincon JCC, Cardenas R, Carvalho F, Castro F, Chansa C, Chatterjee P, Chattu VK, Chauhan BG, Chin KL, Christopher DJ, Chu D-T, Claro RM, Cormier NM, Costa VM, Damiani G, Daoud F, Dandona L, Dandona R, Darwish AH, Daryani A, Das JK, Das Gupta R, Dasa TT, Davila CA, Weaver ND, Davitoiu DV, De Neve J-W, Demeke FM, Demis AB, Demoz GT, Denova-Gutierrez E, Deribe K, Desalew A, Dessie GA, Dharmaratne SD, Dhillon P, Dhimal M, Dhungana GP, Diaz D, Ding EL, Diro HD, Djalalinia S, Do HP, Doku DT, Dolecek C, Dubey M, Dubljanin E, Adema BD, Dunachie SJ, Duraes AR, Duraisamy S, Effiong A, Eftekhari A, El Set al., 2020, Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17: analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017, The Lancet, Vol: 395, Pages: 1779-1801, ISSN: 0140-6736

BackgroundAcross low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), one in ten deaths in children younger than 5 years is attributable to diarrhoea. The substantial between-country variation in both diarrhoea incidence and mortality is attributable to interventions that protect children, prevent infection, and treat disease. Identifying subnational regions with the highest burden and mapping associated risk factors can aid in reducing preventable childhood diarrhoea.MethodsWe used Bayesian model-based geostatistics and a geolocated dataset comprising 15 072 746 children younger than 5 years from 466 surveys in 94 LMICs, in combination with findings of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, to estimate posterior distributions of diarrhoea prevalence, incidence, and mortality from 2000 to 2017. From these data, we estimated the burden of diarrhoea at varying subnational levels (termed units) by spatially aggregating draws, and we investigated the drivers of subnational patterns by creating aggregated risk factor estimates.FindingsThe greatest declines in diarrhoeal mortality were seen in south and southeast Asia and South America, where 54·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 38·1–65·8), 17·4% (7·7–28·4), and 59·5% (34·2–86·9) of units, respectively, recorded decreases in deaths from diarrhoea greater than 10%. Although children in much of Africa remain at high risk of death due to diarrhoea, regions with the most deaths were outside Africa, with the highest mortality units located in Pakistan. Indonesia showed the greatest within-country geographical inequality; some regions had mortality rates nearly four times the average country rate. Reductions in mortality were correlated to improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) or reductions in child growth failure (CGF). Similarly, most high-risk areas had poor WASH, high CGF, or low oral rehydration

Journal article

, 2020, Department of Error., Lancet, Vol: 395

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