Imperial College London

ProfessorSalmanRawaf

Faculty of MedicineSchool of Public Health

Director of WHO Collaborating Centre
 
 
 
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Contact

 

+44 (0)20 7594 8814s.rawaf

 
 
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Assistant

 

Ms Ela Augustyniak +44 (0)20 7594 8603

 
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Location

 

311Reynolds BuildingCharing Cross Campus

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Summary

 

Publications

Publication Type
Year
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346 results found

Atwan Z, al hilfi R, Mousa A, Rawaf S, DL torre J, Hashim A, Sharquie I, Khaleel H, Tabche Cet al., 2024, Alarming update on incidence of Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever in Iraq in 2023, IJID Regions, Vol: 10, Pages: 75-79, ISSN: 2772-7076

Objectives:In 2021, large outbreak of Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) was reported in Iraq and cases have increased without any significant control measures. To raise awareness about the increasing cases in different regions of Iraq, hence remind the necessity to tackle contributing factors and potential outbreak interventions.Methods:The study included 511 polymerase chain reaction-confirmed CCHF infection cases out of 1827 suspected cases from 18 Provinces from January to August 2023. Approval from the Ministry of Health for data analyzed.Results:Out of 1827 suspected cases, 511 were confirmed positive by polymerase chain reaction. The total case fatality rate (CFR) was 12.7 with varying severity levels among provinces. Erbil had the highest CFR, 38.5, while Sulaimaniya and Anbar report no deaths. Independent t-test showed a significant difference in CFR between provinces west and south of Baghdad compared to north (P <0.05). Trend showed significant surges after Iftar and Adha holidays.Conclusion:Differences in CFR among provinces around the religious ceremonies, highlight the need for one public health intervention strategy. Increased temperatures affected vector behavior. Uncontrolled animal movement with neighboring countries is an important factor. Virus or host determinants can shape the clinical case outcomes, which need clinical and extensive laboratory studies to unravel the reasons leading to death.

Journal article

Khaleel H, Alhilfi R, Rawaf S, Tabche Cet al., 2024, Identify future epidemic threshold and intensity for influenza-like illness in Iraq by using the moving epidemic method, IJID Regions, Vol: 10, Pages: 126-131, ISSN: 2772-7076

Objectives:Influenza-like illness (ILI) entered the Iraq surveillance system in 2021. The alert threshold was determined using the cumulative sum 2 method, which did not provide other characteristics. This study uses the moving epidemic method (MEM) to describe duration and estimate alert thresholds for ILI in Iraq for 2023-2024.Methods:MEM default package was used to estimate influenza 2023-2024 epidemic thresholds. Analysis was repeated using optimum parameter of epidemic timing for fixed criteria method, which is 3.3. Arithmetic means and 95% confidence interval upper limit were used to estimate threshold. Geometric mean and 40%, 90%, and 97.3% confidence interval upper limits were used to estimate intensity levels. Aggregated Centers for Disease Control and Prevention surveillance data were used to detect epidemic thresholds, length, sensitivity, and predictive values.Results:ILI activity starts at week 30 and lasts 7 weeks. Optimized epidemic threshold is 4513 cases, lower than default (4540 cases). Optimized medium-intensity level was higher than default, and high and very high-intensity levels were lower.Conclusions:MEM is essential to determine an influenza epidemic's threshold and intensity levels. Despite requiring 3-5 years of data, using it on data for 2.5 years has resulted in an epidemic threshold slightly higher than the threshold calculated using the cumulative sum 2 method.

Journal article

Kufoof L, Hajjeh R, Al Nsour M, Saad R, Bélorgeot V, Abubakar A, Khader Y, Rawaf Set al., 2024, Learning From COVID-19: What Would It Take to Be Better Prepared in the Eastern Mediterranean Region?, JMIR Public Health Surveill, Vol: 10

The COVID-19 transmission in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) was influenced by various factors such as conflict, demographics, travel and social restrictions, migrant workers, weak health systems, and mass gatherings. The countries that responded well to COVID-19 had high-level political commitment, multisectoral coordination, and existing infrastructures that could quickly mobilize. However, some EMR countries faced challenges due to political instability and fragile health systems, which hindered their response strategies. The pandemic highlighted the region's weak health systems and preparedness, fragmented surveillance systems, and lack of trust in information sharing. COVID-19 exposed the disruption of access and delivery of essential health services as a major health system fragility. In 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) conducted a global pulse survey, which demonstrated that the EMR experienced the highest disruption in health services compared to other WHO regions. However, thanks to prioritization by the WHO and its member states, significant improvement was observed in 2021 during the second round of the WHO's National Pulse Survey. The pandemic underscored the importance of political leadership, community engagement, and trust and emphasized that investing in health security benefits everyone. Increasing vaccine coverage, building regional capacities, strengthening health systems, and working toward universal health coverage and health security are all priorities in the EMR. Emergency public health plays a key role in preparing for and responding to pandemics and biological threats. Integrating public health into primary care and investing in public health workforce capacity building is essential to reshaping public health and health emergency preparedness.

Journal article

Prendes CF, Rawaf S, et al, 2024, Burden of Stroke in Europe: An Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study Findings From 2010 to 2019, Stroke, ISSN: 0039-2499

Journal article

Mensah GA, Fuster V, Murray CJL, Roth GA, Global Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases and Risks Collaboratorset al., 2023, Global burden of cardiovascular diseases and risks, 1990-2022, Journal of the American College of Cardiology, Vol: 82, Pages: 2350-2473, ISSN: 0735-1097

Journal article

Kasper T, Yamey G, Dwyer S, McDade KK, Lidén J, Lüdemann C, Diab MM, Ogbuoji O, Poodla P, Schrade C, Thoumi A, Zimmerman A, Assefa Y, Allen LN, Basinga P, Garcia PJ, Jackson D, Mwanyika H, Nugent R, Ofosu A, Rawaf S, Reddy KS, Settle D, Tritter B, Benn Cet al., 2023, Rethinking how development assistance for health can catalyse progress on primary health care, The Lancet, Vol: 402, Pages: 2253-2264, ISSN: 0140-6736

Global campaigns to control HIV, tuberculosis, malaria, and vaccine-preventable illnesses showed that large-scale impact can be achieved by using additional international financing to support selected, evidence-based, high-impact investment areas and to catalyse domestic resource mobilisation. Building on this paradigm, we make the case for targeting additional international funding for selected high-impact investments in primary health care. We have identified and costed a set of concrete, evidence-based investments that donors could support, which would be expected to have major impacts at an affordable cost. These investments are in: (1) individuals and communities empowered to engage in health decision making, (2) a new model of people-centred primary care, and (3) next generation community health workers. These three areas would be supported by strengthening two cross-cutting elements of national systems. The first is the digital tools and data that support facility, district, and national managers to improve processes, quality of care, and accountability across primary health care. The second is the educational, training, and supervisory systems needed to improve the quality of care. We estimate that with an additional international investment of between US$1·87 billion in a low-investment scenario and $3·85 billion in a high-investment scenario annually over the next 3 years, the international community could support the scale-up of this evidence-based package of investments in the 59 low-income and middle-income countries that are eligible for external financing from the World Bank Group's International Development Association.

Journal article

GBD Spinal Cord Injuries Collaborators, 2023, Global, regional, and national burden of spinal cord injury, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019., Lancet Neurol, Vol: 22, Pages: 1026-1047

BACKGROUND: Spinal cord injury (SCI) is a major cause of health loss due to premature mortality and long-term disability. We aimed to report on the global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for SCI from 1990 to 2019, using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. METHODS: Using GBD 2019 data pooled in DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, we systematically derived numbers and age-standardised rate changes with 95% uncertainty intervals (95% UIs) for the incidence, prevalence, and YLDs for SCI from 1990 to 2019 for the whole world, 21 GBD regions, and 204 countries and territories. We report trends based on age, sex, year, cause of injury, and level of injury. FINDINGS: Globally, 20·6 million (95% UI 18·9 to 23·6) individuals were living with SCI in 2019. The incidence of SCI was 0·9 million (0·7 to 1·2) cases with an estimated 6·2 million (4·5 to 8·2) YLDs. SCI rates increased substantially from 1990 to 2019 for global prevalence (81·5%, 74·2 to 87·1), incidence (52·7%, 30·3 to 69·8), and YLDs (65·4%, 56·3 to 76·0). However, global age-standardised rates per 100 000 population showed small changes in prevalence (5·8%, 2·6 to 9·5), incidence (-6·1%, -17·2 to 1·5), and YLDs (-1·5%, -5·5 to 3·2). Data for 2019 shows that the incidence of SCI increases sharply until age 15-19 years, where it remains reasonably constant until 85 years of age and older. By contrast, prevalence and YLDs showed similar patterns to each other, with one peak at around age 45-54 years. The incidence, prevalence, and YLDs of SCI have consistently been higher in men than in women globally, with a slight and steady increase for both men and women from 1990 to 2019. Between 1990 and 2019, SCI at neck

Journal article

GBD 2021 Carbon Monoxide Poisoning Collaborators, 2023, Global, regional, and national mortality due to unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning, 2000-2021: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, The Lancet Public Health, Vol: 8, Pages: e839-e849, ISSN: 2468-2667

BACKGROUND: Unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning is a largely preventable cause of death that has received insufficient attention. We aimed to conduct a comprehensive global analysis of the demographic, temporal, and geographical patterns of fatal unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning from 2000 to 2021. METHODS: As part of the latest Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning mortality was quantified using the GBD cause of death ensemble modelling strategy. Vital registration data and covariates with an epidemiological link to unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning informed the estimates of death counts and mortality rates for all locations, sexes, ages, and years included in the GBD. Years of life lost (YLLs) were estimated by multiplying deaths by remaining standard life expectancy at age of death. Population attributable fractions (PAFs) for unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning deaths due to occupational injuries and high alcohol use were estimated. FINDINGS: In 2021, the global mortality rate due to unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning was 0·366 per 100 000 (95% uncertainty interval 0·276-0·415), with 28 900 deaths (21 700-32 800) and 1·18 million YLLs (0·886-1·35) across all ages. Nearly 70% of deaths occurred in males (20 100 [15 800-24 000]), and the 50-54-year age group had the largest number of deaths (2210 [1660-2590]). The highest mortality rate was in those aged 85 years or older with 1·96 deaths (1·38-2·32) per 100 000. Eastern Europe had the highest age-standardised mortality rate at 2·12 deaths (1·98-2·30) per 100 000. Globally, there was a 53·5% (46·2-63·7) decrease in the age-standardised mortality rate from 2000 to 2021, although this decline was not uniform across regions. The overall PAFs for occupational i

Journal article

Leyns C, Williems S, Powell R, Camacho V, Fabrega R, De Maeseneer J, Rawaf S, Mangtani P, El-Osta Aet al., 2023, From disease- to people-centred pandemic management: health equity through community organization, health information systems & community oriented primary care, International Journal for Equity in Health, Vol: 22, ISSN: 1475-9276

Background:The COVID-19 pandemic exposed the health equity gap between and within countries. Western countries were the first to receive vaccines and mortality was higher among socially deprived, minority and indigenous populations. Surprisingly, many sub-Saharan countries reported low excess mortalities. These countries share experiences with community organization and participation in health. The aim of this article was to analyse if and how this central role of people can promote a successful pandemic response.Methods:This analysis was partly based on local and national experiences shared during an international and Latin American conference on person-and people-centred care in 2021. Additionally, excess mortality data and pandemic control-relevant data, as well as literature on the pandemic response of countries with an unexpected low excess mortality were consulted.Results:Togo, Mongolia, Thailand and Kenya had a seven times lower mean excess mortality for 2020 and 2021 than the United States of America. More successful pandemic responses were observed in settings with experience in managing epidemics like Ebola and HIV, well-established community networks, a national philosophy of mutual aid, financial government assistance, more human resources for primary care and paid community health workers.Discussion:Since trust in authorities and health needs vary greatly, local strategies are needed to complement national and international pandemic responses. Three key levers were identified to promote locally-tailored pandemic management: well-organized communities, community-oriented primary care, and health information systems. An organized community structure stems from a shared ethical understanding of humanity as being interconnected with each other and the environment. This structure facilitates mutual aid and participation in decision making. Community-oriented primary care includes attention for collective community health and ways to improve health from its r

Journal article

Tabche C, Raheem M, Alolaqi A, Rawaf Set al., 2023, Effect of electronic health records on doctor-patient relationship in Arabian gulf countries: a systematic review, Frontiers in Digital Health, Vol: 5, ISSN: 2673-253X

Background: The electronic health record (EHR) has been widely implemented internationally as a tool to improve health and healthcare delivery. However, EHR implementation has been comparatively slow amongst hospitals in the Arabian Gulf countries. This gradual uptake may be linked to prevailing opinions amongst medical practitioners. Until now, no systematic review has been conducted to identify the impact of EHRs on doctor-patient relationships and attitudes in the Arabian Gulf countries.Objective: To understand the impact of EHR use on patient-doctor relationships and communication in the Arabian Gulf countries.Design: A systematic review of English language publications was performed using PRISMA chart guidelines between 1990 and 2023.Methods: Electronic database search (Ovid MEDLINE, Global Health, HMIC, EMRIM, and PsycINFO) and reference searching restricted to the six Arabian Gulf countries only. MeSH terms and keywords related to electronic health records, doctor-patient communication, and relationship were used. Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS) quality assessment was performed.Results: 18 studies fulfilled the criteria to be included in the systematic review. They were published between 1992 and 2023. Overall, a positive impact of EHR uptake was reported within the Gulf countries studied. This included improvement in the quality and performance of physicians, as well as improved accuracy in monitoring patient health. On the other hand, a notable negative impact was a general perception of physician attention shifted away from the patients themselves and towards data entry tasks (e.g., details of the patients and their education at the time of the consultation).Conclusion: The implementation of EHR systems is beneficial for effective care delivery by doctors in Gulf countries despite some patients' perception of decreased attention. The use of EHR assists doctors with recording patient details, including medication and treatment procedures, as well as their outc

Journal article

Yousif MG, Al-Amran FG, Rawaf S, Al-Jumeily Det al., 2023, Effect of Vitamin D3 Levels on Varicella-Zoster Virus Infection and IFN-Gamma Expression in Children: A Cross-Sectional Study in Iraq, Advancements in Life Sciences, Vol: 10, Pages: 35-40

Background: This study aimed to explore the correlation between Vitamin D3 levels and IFN-Gamma expression in children residing in the southern and central provinces of Iraq. Vitamin D3 plays a pivotal role in immune function, and IFN-Gamma is a crucial cytokine involved in antiviral defense. Investigating the connection between Vitamin D3 and IFN-Gamma offers valuable insights into immune responses and potential implications for infectious diseases. Methods: A case-control study was conducted, involving children from various schools and kindergartens in the southern and central provinces of Iraq. The study assessed Vitamin D3 levels and measured IFN-Gamma expression. Statistical analyses were performed to determine the relationship between these variables. Results: The outcomes revealed a significant positive correlation between Vitamin D3 levels and IFN-Gamma expression within the study population (p < 0.05). Children with higher Vitamin D3 levels exhibited elevated IFN-Gamma expression, suggesting a possible immunomodulatory impact of Vitamin D3 on IFN-Gamma production. Conclusion: These findings underscore the importance of maintaining adequate Vitamin D3 levels to support immune function, particularly in relation to IFN-Gamma expression. Improving Vitamin D3 status could potentially bolster antiviral defense mechanisms and reduce susceptibility to viral infections among children in the southern and central provinces of Iraq. Further investigation is warranted to delve into the underlying mechanisms and potential clinical ramifications of this significant association. Additionally, exploring the long-term effects of maintaining optimal Vitamin D3 levels on immune function and the outcomes of infectious diseases in this population would offer valuable insights for preventive and therapeutic strategies.

Journal article

Yousif MG, Zeiny LS, Al-Amran FG, Sadeq AM, Rawaf S, Al-Jumeily Det al., 2023, Demographics, Risk Factors, and Post-COVID-19 Syndrome Among Patients in the Middle Euphrates Region of Iraq, Advancements in Life Sciences, Vol: 10, Pages: 41-45

B ackground: The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on global health, requiring a comprehensive understanding of its regional dynamics for effective management and response strategies. This study aimed to explore the demographics, risk factors, and post-COVID-19 syndrome among patients in the Middle Euphrates region of Iraq. Methods: A total of 410 patients were included in the study, with 180 females and 230 males. Demographic characteristics, risk factors (such as smoking, and comorbidities), and post-COVID-19 syndrome manifestations were analyzed. Statistical and machine learning analyses were conducted to predict outcomes. Results: The findings revealed a diverse age range (38-83 years) of COVID-19 patients in the Middle Euphrates region. Smoking was prevalent among 93 patients, while comorbidities such as diabetes, hypertension, and obesity were observed in significant numbers. Post-COVID-19 syndrome symptoms included generalized muscle fatigue, impaired concentration and memory, joint pain, hair loss, and respiratory problems. The prevalence of these symptoms varied across different age groups. Conclusion: This study provides valuable insights into the demographics, risk factors, and post-COVID-19 syndrome among patients in the Middle Euphrates region of Iraq. The high prevalence of smoking and comorbidities highlights the importance of tailored interventions for high-risk individuals. The range of persistent symptoms emphasizes the need for comprehensive healthcare support. These findings contribute to the existing knowledge on the impact of COVID-19 in the region and can inform targeted interventions and resource allocation.

Journal article

Black RJ, Cross M, Haile LM, Culbreth GT, Steinmetz JD, Hagins H, Kopec JA, Brooks PM, Woolf AD, Ong KL, Kopansky-Giles DR, Dreinhoefer KE, Betteridge N, Aali A, Abbasifard M, Abbasi-Kangevari M, Abdurehman AM, Abedi A, Abidi H, Aboagye RG, Abolhassani H, Abu-Gharbieh E, Abu-Zaid A, Adamu K, Addo IY, Adesina MA, Adnani QES, Afzal MS, Ahmed A, Aithala JP, Akhlaghdoust M, Alemayehu A, Alvand S, Alvis-Zakzuk NJ, Amu H, Antony B, Arabloo J, Aravkin AY, Arulappan J, Ashraf T, Athari SS, Azadnajafabad S, Badawi A, Baghcheghi N, Baig AA, Balta AB, Banach M, Banik PC, Barrow A, Bashiri A, Bearne LM, Bekele A, Bensenor IM, Berhie AY, Bhagavathula AS, Bhardwaj P, Bhat AN, Bhojaraja VS, Bitaraf S, Bodicha BBA, Botelho JS, Briggs AM, Buchbinder R, Castañeda-Orjuela CA, Charalampous P, Chattu VK, Coberly K, Cruz-Martins N, Dadras O, Dai X, de Luca K, Dessalegn FN, Dessie G, Dhimal M, Digesa LE, Diress M, Doku PN, Edinur HA, Ekholuenetale M, Elhadi M, El-Sherbiny YM, Etaee F, Ezzeddini R, Faghani S, Filip I, Fischer F, Fukumoto T, Ganesan B, Gebremichael MA, Gerema U, Getachew ME, Ghashghaee A, Gill TK, Gupta B, Gupta S, Gupta VB, Gupta VK, Halwani R, Hannan MA, Haque S, Harlianto NI, Harorani M, Hasaballah AI, Hassen MB, Hay SI, Hayat K, Heidari G, Hezam K, Hill CL, Hiraike Y, Horita N, Hoveidaei AH, Hsiao AK, Hsieh E, Hussain S, Iavicoli I, Ilic IM, Islam SMS, Ismail NE, Iwagami M, Jakovljevic M, Jani CT, Jeganathan J, Joseph N, Kadashetti V, Kandel H, Kanko TK, Karaye IM, Khajuria H, Khan MJ, Khan MAB, Khanali J, Khatatbeh MM, Khubchandani J, Kim YJ, Kisa A, Kolahi A-A, Kompani F, Koohestani HR, Koyanagi A, Krishan K, Kuddus M, Kumar N, Kuttikkattu A, Larijani B, Lim SS, Lo J, Machado VS, Mahajan PB, Majeed A, Malakan Rad E, Malik AA, Mansournia MA, Mathews E, Mendes JJ, Mentis A-FA, Mesregah MK, Mestrovic T, Mirghaderi SP, Mirrakhimov EM, Misganaw A, Mohamadkhani A, Mohammed S, Mokdad AH, Moniruzzaman M, Montasir AA, Mulu GB, Murillo-Zamora E, Murray CJL, Mustafa G, Naghavi Met al., 2023, Global, regional, and national burden of rheumatoid arthritis, 1990–2020, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, The Lancet Rheumatology, Vol: 5, Pages: e594-e610, ISSN: 2665-9913

Background:Rheumatoid arthritis is a chronic autoimmune inflammatory disease associated with disability and premature death. Up-to-date estimates of the burden of rheumatoid arthritis are required for health-care planning, resource allocation, and prevention. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021, we provide updated estimates of the prevalence of rheumatoid arthritis and its associated deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age, sex, year, and location, with forecasted prevalence to 2050.Methods:Rheumatoid arthritis prevalence was estimated in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020 using Bayesian meta-regression models and data from population-based studies and medical claims data (98 prevalence and 25 incidence studies). Mortality was estimated from vital registration data with the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm). Years of life lost (YLL) were calculated with use of standard GBD lifetables, and years lived with disability (YLDs) were estimated from prevalence, a meta-analysed distribution of rheumatoid arthritis severity, and disability weights. DALYs were calculated by summing YLLs and YLDs. Smoking was the only risk factor analysed. Rheumatoid arthritis prevalence was forecast to 2050 by logistic regression with Socio-Demographic Index as a predictor, then multiplying by projected population estimates.Findings:In 2020, an estimated 17·6 million (95% uncertainty interval 15·8–20·3) people had rheumatoid arthritis worldwide. The age-standardised global prevalence rate was 208·8 cases (186·8–241·1) per 100 000 population, representing a 14·1% (12·7–15·4) increase since 1990. Prevalence was higher in females (age-standardised female-to-male prevalence ratio 2·45 [2·40–2·47]). The age-standardised death rate was 0·47 (0·41–0·54) per 100 000 population (38 300

Journal article

Wu D, Jin Y, Xing Y, Abate MD, Abbasian M, Abbasi-Kangevari M, Abbasi-Kangevari Z, Abd-Allah F, Abdelmasseh M, Abdollahifar M-A, Abdulah DM, Abedi A, Abedi V, Abidi H, Aboagye RG, Abolhassani H, Abuabara K, Abyadeh M, Addo IY, Adeniji KN, Adepoju AV, Adesina MA, Sakilah Adnani QE, Afarideh M, Aghamiri S, Agodi A, Agrawal A, Aguilera Arriagada CE, Ahmad A, Ahmad D, Ahmad S, Ahmad S, Ahmadi A, Ahmed A, Ahmed A, Aithala JP, Ajadi AA, Ajami M, Akbarzadeh-Khiavi M, Alahdab F, AlBataineh MT, Alemi S, Saeed Al-Gheethi AA, Ali L, Alif SM, Almazan JU, Almustanyir S, Alqahtani JS, Alqasmi I, Khan Altaf IU, Alvis-Guzman N, Alvis-Zakzuk NJ, Al-Worafi YM, Aly H, Amani R, Amu H, Amusa GA, Andrei CL, Ansar A, Ansariniya H, Anyasodor AE, Arabloo J, Arefnezhad R, Arulappan J, Asghari-Jafarabadi M, Ashraf T, Atata JA, Athari SS, Atlaw D, Wahbi Atout MM, Aujayeb A, Awan AT, Ayatollahi H, Azadnajafabad S, Azzam AY, Badawi A, Badiye AD, Bagherieh S, Baig AA, Bantie BB, Barchitta M, Bardhan M, Barker-Collo SL, Barone-Adesi F, Batra K, Bayileyegn NS, Behnoush AH, Belgaumi UI, Bemanalizadeh M, Bensenor IM, Beyene KA, Bhagavathula AS, Bhardwaj P, Bhaskar S, Bhat AN, Bitaraf S, Bitra VR, Boloor A, Bora K, Botelho JS, Buchbinder R, Calina D, Cámera LA, Carvalho AF, Kai Chan JS, Chattu VK, Abebe EC, Chichagi F, Choi S, Chou T-C, Chu D-T, Coberly K, Costa VM, Couto RAS, Cruz-Martins N, Dadras O, Dai X, Damiani G, Dascalu AM, Dashti M, Debela SA, Dellavalle RP, Demetriades AK, Demlash AA, Deng X, Desai HD, Desai R, Rahman Dewan SM, Dey S, Dharmaratne SD, Diaz D, Dibas M, Dinis-Oliveira RJ, Diress M, Do TC, Doan DK, Dodangeh M, Dodangeh M, Dongarwar D, Dube J, Dziedzic AM, Ed-Dra A, Edinur HA, Eissazade N, Ekholuenetale M, Ekundayo TC, Elemam NM, Elhadi M, Elmehrath AO, Abdou Elmeligy OA, Emamverdi M, Emeto TI, Esayas HL, Eshetu HB, Etaee F, Fagbamigbe AF, Faghani S, Fakhradiyev IR, Fatehizadeh A, Fathi M, Feizkhah A, Fekadu G, Fereidouni M, Fereshtehnejad S-M, Fernandes JC, Ferrara P, Fetensa Get al., 2023, Global, regional, and national incidence of six major immune-mediated inflammatory diseases: findings from the global burden of disease study 2019, eClinicalMedicine, Vol: 64, ISSN: 2589-5370

BackgroundThe causes for immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (IMIDs) are diverse and the incidence trends of IMIDs from specific causes are rarely studied. The study aims to investigate the pattern and trend of IMIDs from 1990 to 2019.MethodsWe collected detailed information on six major causes of IMIDs, including asthma, inflammatory bowel disease, multiple sclerosis, rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis, and atopic dermatitis, between 1990 and 2019, derived from the Global Burden of Disease study in 2019. The average annual percent change (AAPC) in number of incidents and age standardized incidence rate (ASR) on IMIDs, by sex, age, region, and causes, were calculated to quantify the temporal trends.FindingsIn 2019, rheumatoid arthritis, atopic dermatitis, asthma, multiple sclerosis, psoriasis, inflammatory bowel disease accounted 1.59%, 36.17%, 54.71%, 0.09%, 6.84%, 0.60% of overall new IMIDs cases, respectively. The ASR of IMIDs showed substantial regional and global variation with the highest in High SDI region, High-income North America, and United States of America. Throughout human lifespan, the age distribution of incident cases from six IMIDs was quite different. Globally, incident cases of IMIDs increased with an AAPC of 0.68 and the ASR decreased with an AAPC of −0.34 from 1990 to 2019. The incident cases increased across six IMIDs, the ASR of rheumatoid arthritis increased (0.21, 95% CI 0.18, 0.25), while the ASR of asthma (AAPC = −0.41), inflammatory bowel disease (AAPC = −0.72), multiple sclerosis (AAPC = −0.26), psoriasis (AAPC = −0.77), and atopic dermatitis (AAPC = −0.15) decreased. The ASR of overall and six individual IMID increased with SDI at regional and global level. Countries with higher ASR in 1990 experienced a more rapid decrease in ASR.InterpretationThe incidence patterns of IMIDs varied considerably across the world. Innovative prevention and integrative management strategy are urgently needed to mitigate

Journal article

GBD 2019 Peripheral Artery Disease Collaborators, 2023, Global burden of peripheral artery disease and its risk factors, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019., Lancet Glob Health, Vol: 11, Pages: e1553-e1565

BACKGROUND: Peripheral artery disease is a growing public health problem. We aimed to estimate the global disease burden of peripheral artery disease, its risk factors, and temporospatial trends to inform policy and public measures. METHODS: Data on peripheral artery disease were modelled using the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 database. Prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and mortality estimates of peripheral artery disease were extracted from GBD 2019. Total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rate of peripheral artery disease attributed to modifiable risk factors were also assessed. FINDINGS: In 2019, the number of people aged 40 years and older with peripheral artery disease was 113 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 99·2-128·4), with a global prevalence of 1·52% (95% UI 1·33-1·72), of which 42·6% was in countries with low to middle Socio-demographic Index (SDI). The global prevalence of peripheral artery disease was higher in older people, (14·91% [12·41-17·87] in those aged 80-84 years), and was generally higher in females than in males. Globally, the total number of DALYs attributable to modifiable risk factors in 2019 accounted for 69·4% (64·2-74·3) of total peripheral artery disease DALYs. The prevalence of peripheral artery disease was highest in countries with high SDI and lowest in countries with low SDI, whereas DALY and mortality rates showed U-shaped curves, with the highest burden in the high and low SDI quintiles. INTERPRETATION: The total number of people with peripheral artery disease has increased globally from 1990 to 2019. Despite the lower prevalence of peripheral artery disease in males and low-income countries, these groups showed similar DALY rates to females and higher-income countries, highlighting disproportionate burden in these groups. Modifiable risk factors were responsible for around 70% of the

Journal article

da Cunha AR, Compton K, Xu R, Mishra R, Drangsholt MT, Antunes JLF, Kerr AR, Acheson AR, Lu D, Wallace LE, Kocarnik JM, Fu W, Dean FE, Pennini A, Henrikson HJ, Alam T, Ababneh E, Abd-Elsalam S, Abdoun M, Abidi H, Abubaker Ali H, Abu-Gharbieh E, Adane TD, Addo IY, Ahmad A, Ahmad S, Ahmed Rashid T, Akonde M, Al Hamad H, Alahdab F, Alimohamadi Y, Alipour V, Al-Maweri SA, Alsharif U, Ansari-Moghaddam A, Anwar SL, Anyasodor AE, Arabloo J, Aravkin AY, Aruleba RT, Asaad M, Ashraf T, Athari SS, Attia S, Azadnajafabad S, Azangou-Khyavy M, Badar M, Baghcheghi N, Banach M, Bardhan M, Barqawi HJ, Bashir NZ, Bashiri A, Benzian H, Bernabe E, Bhagat DS, Bhojaraja VS, Bjorge T, Bouaoud S, Braithwaite D, Briko NI, Calina D, Carreras G, Chakraborty PA, Chattu VK, Chaurasia A, Chen MX, Cho WCS, Chu D-T, Chukwu IS, Chung E, Cruz-Martins N, Dadras O, Dai X, Dandona L, Dandona R, Daneshpajouhnejad P, Darvishi Cheshmeh Soltani R, Darwesh AM, Debela SA, Derbew Molla M, Dessalegn FN, Dianati-Nasab M, Digesa LE, Dixit SG, Dixit A, Djalalinia S, El Sayed I, El Tantawi M, Enyew DB, Erku DA, Ezzeddini R, Fagbamigbe AF, Falzone L, Fetensa G, Fukumoto T, Gaewkhiew P, Gallus S, Gebrehiwot M, Ghashghaee A, Gill PS, Golechha M, Goleij P, Gomez RS, Gorini G, Guimaraes ALS, Gupta B, Gupta S, Gupta VB, Gupta VK, Haj-Mirzaian A, Halboub ES, Halwani R, Hanif A, Hariyani N, Harorani M, Hasani H, Hassan AM, Hassanipour S, Hassen MB, Hay SI, Hayat K, Herrera-Serna BY, Holla R, Horita N, Hosseinzadeh M, Hussain S, Ilesanmi OS, Ilic IM, Ilic MD, Isola G, Jaiswal A, Jani CT, Javaheri T, Jayarajah U, Jayaram S, Joseph N, Kadashetti V, Kandaswamy E, Karanth SD, Karaye IM, Kauppila JH, Kaur H, Keykhaei M, Khader YS, Khajuria H, Khanali J, Khatib MN, Khayat Kashani HR, Khazeei Tabari MA, Kim MS, Kompani F, Koohestani HR, Kumar GA, Kurmi OP, La Vecchia C, Lal DK, Landires I, Lasrado S, Ledda C, Lee YH, Libra M, Lim SS, Listl S, Lopukhov PD, Mafi AR, Mahumud RA, Malik AA, Mathur MR, Maulud SQ, Meena JK, Mehrabi Nasaet al., 2023, The Global, Regional, and National Burden of Adult Lip, Oral, and Pharyngeal Cancer in 204 Countries and Territories A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, JAMA ONCOLOGY, ISSN: 2374-2437

Journal article

Steinmetz JD, Culbreth GT, Haile LM, Rafferty Q, Lo J, Fukutaki KG, Cruz JA, Smith AE, Vollset SE, Brooks PM, Cross M, Woolf AD, Hagins H, Abbasi-Kangevari M, Abedi A, Ackerman IN, Amu H, Antony B, Arabloo J, Aravkin AY, Argaw AM, Artamonov AA, Ashraf T, Barrow A, Bearne LM, Bensenor IM, Berhie AY, Bhardwaj N, Bhardwaj P, Bhojaraja VS, Bijani A, Briant PS, Briggs AM, Butt NS, Charan J, Chattu VK, Cicuttini FM, Coberly K, Dadras O, Dai X, Dandona L, Dandona R, de Luca K, Denova-Gutiérrez E, Dharmaratne SD, Dhimal M, Dianatinasab M, Dreinhoefer KE, Elhadi M, Farooque U, Farpour HR, Filip I, Fischer F, Freitas M, Ganesan B, Gemeda BNB, Getachew T, Ghamari SH, Ghashghaee A, Gill TK, Golechha M, Golinelli D, Gupta B, Gupta VB, Gupta VK, Haddadi R, Hafezi-Nejad N, Halwani R, Hamidi S, Hanif A, Harlianto NI, Haro JM, Hartvigsen J, Hay SI, Hebert JJ, Heidari G, Hosseini MS, Hosseinzadeh M, Hsiao AK, Ilic IM, Ilic MD, Jacob L, Jayawardena R, Jha RP, Jonas JB, Joseph N, Kandel H, Karaye IM, Khan MJ, Kim YJ, Kolahi AA, Korzh O, Koteeswaran R, Krishnamoorthy V, Kumar GA, Kumar N, Lee SW, Lim SS, Lobo SW, Lucchetti Get al., 2023, Global, regional, and national burden of osteoarthritis, 1990–2020 and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, The Lancet Rheumatology, Vol: 5, Pages: e508-e522

Background: Osteoarthritis is the most common form of arthritis in adults, characterised by chronic pain and loss of mobility. Osteoarthritis most frequently occurs after age 40 years and prevalence increases steeply with age. WHO has designated 2021–30 the decade of healthy ageing, which highlights the need to address diseases such as osteoarthritis, which strongly affect functional ability and quality of life. Osteoarthritis can coexist with, and negatively effect, other chronic conditions. Here we estimate the burden of hand, hip, knee, and other sites of osteoarthritis across geographies, age, sex, and time, with forecasts of prevalence to 2050. Methods: In this systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study, osteoarthritis prevalence in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020 was estimated using data from population-based surveys from 26 countries for knee osteoarthritis, 23 countries for hip osteoarthritis, 42 countries for hand osteoarthritis, and US insurance claims for all of the osteoarthritis sites, including the other types of osteoarthritis category. The reference case definition was symptomatic, radiographically confirmed osteoarthritis. Studies using alternative definitions from the reference case definition (for example self-reported osteoarthritis) were adjusted to reference using regression models. Osteoarthritis severity distribution was obtained from a pooled meta-analysis of sources using the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Arthritis Index. Final prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights to calculate years lived with disability (YLDs). Prevalence was forecast to 2050 using a mixed-effects model. Findings: Globally, 595 million (95% uncertainty interval 535–656) people had osteoarthritis in 2020, equal to 7·6% (95% UI 6·8–8·4) of the global population, and an increase of 132·2% (130·3–134·1) in total cases since 1990. Compared with 202

Journal article

Gardner WM, Razo C, McHugh TA, Hagins H, Vilchis-Tella VM, Hennessy C, Taylor HJ, Perumal N, Fuller K, Cercy KM, Zoeckler LZ, Chen CS, Lim SS, Aali A, Abate KH, Abd-Elsalam S, Abdurehman AM, Abebe G, Abidi H, Aboagye RG, Abolhassani H, Aboye GB, Abtew YD, Accrombessi MMK, Adane DE, Adane TD, Addo IY, Adesina MA, Adeyinka DA, Adnani QES, Afzal MS, Afzal S, Agustina R, Ahinkorah BO, Ahmad A, Ahmad S, Ahmadi S, Ahmed A, Rashid TA, Aiman W, Ajami M, Akbarialiabad H, Alahdab F, Al-Aly Z, Alam N, Alemayehu A, Alhassan RK, Ali MA, Almustanyir S, Al-Raddadi RM, Al-Rifai RH, Altirkawi KA, Alvand S, Alvis-Guzman N, Amer YSAD, Ameyaw EK, Amu H, Anagaw TF, Ancuceanu R, Anoushirvani AA, Antwi MH, Anvari D, Arabloo J, Aravkin AY, Ariffin H, Aripov T, Arja A, Arndt MB, Arulappan J, Aruleba RT, Ashraf T, Asresie MB, Athari SS, Atlaw D, Aujayeb A, Awoke AA, Awoke MA, Azadnajafabad S, Azangou-Khyavy M, Darshan BB, Badawi A, Badiye AD, Baghcheghi N, Bagheri N, Bagherieh S, Baig AA, Banach M, Banik PC, Bantie AT, Barr RD, Barrow A, Bashiri A, Basu S, Batiha A-MM, Begum T, Belete MA, Belo L, Bensenor IM, Berhie AY, Bhagavathula AS, Bhardwaj N, Bhardwaj P, Bhat AN, Bhutta ZA, Bikbov B, Billah SM, Birara S, Bishai JD, Bitaraf S, Boloor A, Botelho JS, Burkart K, Calina D, Cembranel F, Chakraborty PA, Chanie GS, Chattu VK, Chien J-H, Chukwu IS, Chung E, Criqui MH, Cruz-Martins N, Dadras O, Dagnew GW, Dai X, Danawi HA, Dandona L, Dandona R, Darwesh AM, Das JK, Das S, De la Cruz-Gongora V, Demisse FW, Demissie S, Demsie DG, Desai HD, Desalegn M, Dessalegn FN, Dessie G, Dharmaratne SD, Dhimal M, Dhingra S, Diaz D, Didehdar M, Dirac MA, Diress M, Doaei S, Dodangeh M, Doku PN, Dongarwar D, Dora BT, Dsouza HL, Edinur HA, Ekholuenetale M, Elagali AEM, Elbahnasawy MA, Elbarazi I, ElGohary GMT, Elhadi M, El-Huneidi W, Elmonem MA, Enyew DB, Eshetu HB, Ewald SB, Ezzeddini R, Fagbamigbe AF, Fasanmi AO, Fatehizadeh A, Fekadu G, Feyisa BR, Fischer F, Fitzgerald R, Foroutan M, Fowobaje KR, Gadanya MA, Gaiet al., 2023, Prevalence, years lived with disability, and trends in anaemia burden by severity and cause, 1990-2021: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, LANCET HAEMATOLOGY, Vol: 10, Pages: e713-e734, ISSN: 2352-3026

Journal article

GBD 2019 Europe Hepatitis B & C Collaborators, 2023, Hepatitis B and C in Europe: an update from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019., Lancet Public Health, Vol: 8, Pages: e701-e716

BACKGROUND: In 2016, the World Health Assembly adopted the resolution to eliminate viral hepatitis by 2030. This study aims to provide an overview of the burdens of hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) in Europe and their changes from 2010 to 2019 using estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. METHODS: We used GBD 2019 estimates of the burden associated with HBV-related and HCV-related diseases: acute hepatitis, cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases, and liver cancer. We report total numbers and age-standardised rates per 100 000 for mortality, prevalence, incidence, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) from 2010 to 2019. For each HBV-related and HCV-related disease and each measure, we analysed temporal changes and percentage changes for the 2010-19 period. FINDINGS: In 2019, across all age groups, there were an estimated 2·08 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1·66 to 2·54) incident cases of acute hepatitis B and 0·49 million (0·42 to 0·57) of hepatitis C in Europe. There were an estimated 8·24 million (7·56 to 8·88) prevalent cases of HBV-related cirrhosis and 11·87 million (9·77 to 14·41) of HCV-related cirrhosis, with 24·92 thousand (19·86 to 31·03) deaths due to HBV-related cirrhosis and 36·89 thousand (29·94 to 45·56) deaths due to HCV-related cirrhosis. Deaths were estimated at 9·00 thousand (6·88 to 11·62) due to HBV-related liver cancer and 23·07 thousand (18·95 to 27·31) due to HCV-related liver cancer. Between 2010 and 2019, the age-standardised incidence rate of acute hepatitis B decreased (-22·14% [95% UI -35·44 to -5·98]) as did its age-standardised mortality rate (-33·27% [-43·03 to -25·49]); the age-standardised prevalence rate (-20·60% [-22·09 to -19

Journal article

Yousif MG, Hashim K, Rawaf S, 2023, Post COVID-19 effect on medical staff and doctors' productivity analysed by machine learning, Baghdad Science Journal, Vol: 20, Pages: 1507-1519, ISSN: 2078-8665

The COVID-19 pandemic has profoundly affected the healthcare sector and the productivity of medical staff and doctors. This study employs machine learning to analyze the post-COVID-19 impact on the productivity of medical staff and doctors across various specialties. A cross-sectional study was conducted on 960 participants from different specialties between June 1, 2022, and April 5, 2023. The study collected demographic data, including age, gender, and socioeconomic status, as well as information on participants' sleeping habits and any COVID-19 complications they experienced. The findings indicate a significant decline in the productivity of medical staff and doctors, with an average reduction of 23% during the post-COVID-19 period. These results reflect the overall impact observed following the entire course of the COVID-19 pandemic and are not specific to a particular wave. The analysis revealed that older participants experienced a more pronounced decline in productivity, with a mean decrease of 35% compared to younger participants. Female participants, on average, had a 28% decrease in productivity compared to their male counterparts. Moreover, individuals with lower socioeconomic status exhibited a substantial decline in productivity, experiencing an average decrease of 40% compared to those with higher socioeconomic status. Similarly, participants who slept for fewer hours per night had a significant decline in productivity, with an average decrease of 33% compared to those who had sufficient sleep. The machine learning analysis identified age, specialty, COVID-19 complications, socioeconomic status, and sleeping time as crucial predictors of productivity score. The study highlights the significant impact of post-COVID-19 on the productivity of medical staff and doctors in Iraq. The findings can aid healthcare organizations in devising strategies to mitigate the negative consequences of COVID-19 on medical staff and doctors' productivity.

Journal article

Shin YH, Hwang J, Kwon R, Lee SW, Kim MS, Shin JI, Yon DKet al., 2023, Global, regional, and national burden of allergic disorders and their risk factors in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2019: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, ALLERGY, Vol: 78, Pages: 2232-2254, ISSN: 0105-4538

Journal article

GBD 2019 Meningitis Antimicrobial Resistance Collaborators, 2023, Global, regional, and national burden of meningitis and its aetiologies, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019., Lancet Neurol, Vol: 22, Pages: 685-711

BACKGROUND: Although meningitis is largely preventable, it still causes hundreds of thousands of deaths globally each year. WHO set ambitious goals to reduce meningitis cases by 2030, and assessing trends in the global meningitis burden can help track progress and identify gaps in achieving these goals. Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we aimed to assess incident cases and deaths due to acute infectious meningitis by aetiology and age from 1990 to 2019, for 204 countries and territories. METHODS: We modelled meningitis mortality using vital registration, verbal autopsy, sample-based vital registration, and mortality surveillance data. Meningitis morbidity was modelled with a Bayesian compartmental model, using data from the published literature identified by a systematic review, as well as surveillance data, inpatient hospital admissions, health insurance claims, and cause-specific meningitis mortality estimates. For aetiology estimation, data from multiple causes of death, vital registration, hospital discharge, microbial laboratory, and literature studies were analysed by use of a network analysis model to estimate the proportion of meningitis deaths and cases attributable to the following aetiologies: Neisseria meningitidis, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae, group B Streptococcus, Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Listeria monocytogenes, Staphylococcus aureus, viruses, and a residual other pathogen category. FINDINGS: In 2019, there were an estimated 236 000 deaths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 204 000-277 000) and 2·51 million (2·11-2·99) incident cases due to meningitis globally. The burden was greatest in children younger than 5 years, with 112 000 deaths (87 400-145 000) and 1·28 million incident cases (0·947-1·71) in 2019. Age-standardised mortality rates decreased from 7·5 (6·6-8·4) per 100 000 population in 1990

Journal article

Thomson AM, McHugh TA, Oron AP, Teply C, Lonberg N, Vilchis Tella V, Wilner LB, Fuller K, Hagins H, Aboagye RG, Aboye MB, Abu-Gharbieh E, Abu-Zaid A, Addo IY, Ahinkorah BO, Ahmad A, AlRyalat SAS, Amu H, Aravkin AY, Arulappan J, Atout MMW, Badiye AD, Bagherieh S, Banach M, Banakar M, Bardhan M, Barrow A, Bedane DA, Bensenor IM, Bhagavathula AS, Bhardwaj P, Bhardwaj PV, Bhat AN, Bhutta ZA, Bilalaga MM, Bishai JD, Bitaraf S, Boloor A, Butt MH, Chattu VK, Chu D-T, Dadras O, Dai X, Danaei B, Dang AK, Demisse FW, Dhimal M, Diaz D, Djalalinia S, Dongarwar D, Elhadi M, Elmonem MA, Esezobor CI, Etaee F, Eyawo O, Fagbamigbe AF, Fatehizadeh A, Force LM, Gardner WM, Ghaffari K, Gill PS, Golechha M, Goleij P, Gupta VK, Hasani H, Hassan TS, Hassen MB, Ibitoye SE, Ikiroma AI, Iwu CCD, James PB, Jayaram S, Jebai R, Jha RP, Joseph N, Kalantar F, Kandel H, Karaye IM, Kassahun WD, Khan IA, Khanmohammadi S, Kisa A, Kompani F, Krishan K, Landires I, Lim SS, Mahajan PB, Mahjoub S, Majeed A, Marasini BP, Meresa HA, Mestrovic T, Minhas S, Misganaw A, Mokdad AH, Monasta L, Mustafa G, Nair TS, Narasimha Swamy S, Nassereldine H, Natto ZS, Naveed M, Nayak BP, Noubiap JJ, Noyes T, Nri-ezedi CA, Nwatah VE, Nzoputam CI, Nzoputam OJ, Okonji OC, Onikan AO, Owolabi MO, Patel J, Pati S, Pawar S, Petcu I-R, Piel FB, Qattea I, Rahimi M, Rahman M, Rawaf S, Redwan EMM, Rezaei N, Saddik B, Saeed U, Saheb Sharif-Askari F, Samy AM, Schumacher AE, Shaker E, Shetty A, Sibhat MM, Singh JA, Suleman M, Sunuwar DR, Szeto MD, Tamuzi JJLL, Tat NY, Taye BT, Temsah M-H, Umair M, Valadan Tahbaz S, Wang C, Wickramasinghe ND, Yigit A, Yiğit V, Yunusa I, Zaman BA, Zangiabadian M, Zheng P, Hay SI, Naghavi M, Murray CJL, Kassebaum NJet al., 2023, Global, regional, and national prevalence and mortality burden of sickle cell disease, 2000-2021: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, The Lancet Haematology, Vol: 10, Pages: e585-e599, ISSN: 2352-3026

BACKGROUND: Previous global analyses, with known underdiagnosis and single cause per death attribution systems, provide only a small insight into the suspected high population health effect of sickle cell disease. Completed as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021, this study delivers a comprehensive global assessment of prevalence of sickle cell disease and mortality burden by age and sex for 204 countries and territories from 2000 to 2021. METHODS: We estimated cause-specific sickle cell disease mortality using standardised GBD approaches, in which each death is assigned to a single underlying cause, to estimate mortality rates from the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-coded vital registration, surveillance, and verbal autopsy data. In parallel, our goal was to estimate a more accurate account of sickle cell disease health burden using four types of epidemiological data on sickle cell disease: birth incidence, age-specific prevalence, with-condition mortality (total deaths), and excess mortality (excess deaths). Systematic reviews, supplemented with ICD-coded hospital discharge and insurance claims data, informed this modelling approach. We employed DisMod-MR 2.1 to triangulate between these measures-borrowing strength from predictive covariates and across age, time, and geography-and generated internally consistent estimates of incidence, prevalence, and mortality for three distinct genotypes of sickle cell disease: homozygous sickle cell disease and severe sickle cell β-thalassaemia, sickle-haemoglobin C disease, and mild sickle cell β-thalassaemia. Summing the three models yielded final estimates of incidence at birth, prevalence by age and sex, and total sickle cell disease mortality, the latter of which was compared directly against cause-specific mortality estimates to evaluate differences in mortality burden assessment and implications for the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). FINDINGS

Journal article

Azzopardi PS, Kerr JA, Francis KL, Sawyer SM, Kennedy EC, Steer AC, Graham SM, Viner RM, Ward JL, Hennegan J, Pham M, Habito CMD, Kurji J, Cini K, Beeson JG, Brown A, Murray CJL, Abbasi-Kangevari M, Abolhassani H, Adekanmbi V, Agampodi SB, Ahmed MB, Ajami M, Akbarialiabad H, Akbarzadeh-Khiavi M, AL-Ahdal TMA, Ali MM, Samakkhah SA, Alimohamadi Y, Alipour V, Al-Jumaily A, Amiri S, Amirzade-Iranaq MH, Anoushiravani A, Anvari D, Arabloo J, Arab-Zozani M, Arkew M, Armocida B, Asadi-Pooya AA, Asemi Z, Asgary S, Athari SS, Azami H, Azangou-Khyavy M, Azizi H, Bagheri N, Bagherieh S, Barone-Adesi F, Barteit S, Basu S, Belete MA, Belo L, Berhie AY, Bijani A, Bikbov B, Burkart K, Carreras G, Charalampous P, Abebe EC, Cruz-Martins N, Dai X, Dandona L, Dandona R, Degualem SM, Demetriades AK, Demlash AA, Desta AA, Dianatinasab M, Doaei S, Dorostkar F, Effendi DE, Emami A, Bain LE, Eskandarieh S, Esmaeilzadeh F, Faramarzi A, Fatehizadeh A, Ferrara P, Fetensa G, Fischer F, Flor LS, Forouhari A, Foroutan M, Gaihre S, Galehdar N, Gallus S, Gautam RK, Gebrehiwot M, Gebremeskel TG, Getacher L, Getachew ME, Ghamari S-H, Nour MG, Goleij P, Golitaleb M, Gorini G, Gupta VK, Hashemian M, Hassankhani H, Heidari M, Heyi DZ, Isola G, Jaafari J, Javanmardi F, Jonas JB, Jozwiak JJ, Juerisson M, Kabir A, Kabir Z, Kalankesh LR, Kalhor R, Kauppila JH, Kaur H, Kayode GA, Keikavoosi-Arani L, Khammarnia M, AB Khan M, Khatab K, Kashani HRK, Kolahi A-A, Koohestani HR, Koyanagi A, Kumar GA, Kurmi OP, Kyu HH, La Vecchia C, Lallukka T, Lim SS, Loureiro JA, Mahjoub S, Mahmoudi R, Majeed A, Rad EM, Maleki A, Mansour-Ghanaei F, Marjani A, Mathioudakis AG, Mehri F, Mentis A-FA, Mestrovic T, Mirica A, Misganaw A, Mohammadian-Hafshejani A, Mohammed H, Mohammed S, Mokdad AH, Mokhtarzadehazar P, Monasta L, Moradi M, Moradzadeh M, Morovatdar N, Mueller UO, Mulita F, Mulu GBB, Muthupandian S, Naik GR, Nashwan AJJ, Nejadghaderi SA, Netsere HB, Noor NM, Noori M, Oancea B, Oguntade AS, Okati-Aliabad H, Otoiu A, Padron-et al., 2023, The unfinished agenda of communicable diseases among children and adolescents before the COVID-19 pandemic, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, LANCET, Vol: 402, Pages: 313-335, ISSN: 0140-6736

Journal article

GBD 2021 Diabetes Collaborators, 2023, Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021., The Lancet, Vol: 402, Pages: 203-234, ISSN: 0140-6736

BACKGROUND: Diabetes is one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide, and affects people regardless of country, age group, or sex. Using the most recent evidentiary and analytical framework from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), we produced location-specific, age-specific, and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden from 1990 to 2021, the proportion of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in 2021, the proportion of the type 2 diabetes burden attributable to selected risk factors, and projections of diabetes prevalence through 2050. METHODS: Estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden were computed in 204 countries and territories, across 25 age groups, for males and females separately and combined; these estimates comprised lost years of healthy life, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; defined as the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]). We used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach to estimate deaths due to diabetes, incorporating 25 666 location-years of data from vital registration and verbal autopsy reports in separate total (including both type 1 and type 2 diabetes) and type-specific models. Other forms of diabetes, including gestational and monogenic diabetes, were not explicitly modelled. Total and type 1 diabetes prevalence was estimated by use of a Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, to analyse 1527 location-years of data from the scientific literature, survey microdata, and insurance claims; type 2 diabetes estimates were computed by subtracting type 1 diabetes from total estimates. Mortality and prevalence estimates, along with standard life expectancy and disability weights, were used to calculate YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs. When appropriate, we extrapolated estimates to a hypothetical population with a standardised age structure to allow comparison in populations with different age structures. We used the com

Journal article

Ferreira ML, de Luca K, Haile LM, Steinmetz J, Culbreth G, Cross M, Kopec JA, Ferreira PH, Blyth FM, Buchbinder R, Hartvigsen J, Wu A-M, Safiri S, Woolf A, Collins GS, Ong KL, Vollset SE, Smith AE, Cruz JA, Fukutaki KG, Abate SM, Abbasifard M, Abbasi-Kangevari M, Abbasi-Kangevari Z, Abdelalim A, Abedi A, Abidi H, Adnani QES, Ahmadi A, Akinyemi RO, Alamer AT, Alem AZ, Alimohamadi Y, Alshehri MA, Alshehri MM, Alzahrani H, Amini S, Amiri S, Amu H, Andrei CL, Andrei T, Antony B, Arabloo J, Arulappan J, Arumugam A, Ashraf T, Athari SS, Awoke N, Azadnajafabad S, Baernighausen TW, Barrero LH, Barrow A, Barzegar A, Bearne LM, Bensenor IM, Berhie AY, Bhandari BB, Bhojaraja VS, Bijani A, Bodicha BBA, Bolla SR, Brazo-Sayavera J, Briggs AM, Cao C, Charalampous P, Chattu VK, Cicuttini FM, Clarsen B, Cuschieri S, Dadras O, Dai X, Dandona L, Dandona R, Dehghan A, Demie TGG, Denova-Gutierrez E, Dewan SMR, Dharmaratne SD, Dhimal ML, Dhimal M, Diaz D, Didehdar M, Digesa LE, Diress M, Do HT, Doan LP, Ekholuenetale M, Elhadi M, Eskandarieh S, Faghani S, Fares J, Fatehizadeh A, Fetensa G, Filip I, Fischer F, Franklin RC, Ganesan B, Gemeda BNB, Getachew ME, Ghashghaee A, Gill TK, Golechha M, Goleij P, Gupta B, Hafezi-Nejad N, Haj-Mirzaian A, Hamal PK, Hanif A, Harlianto N, Hasani H, Hay S, Hebert JJ, Heidari G, Heidari M, Heidari-Soureshjani R, Hlongwa MM, Hosseini M-S, Hsiao AK, Iavicoli I, Ibitoye SE, Ilic IM, Ilic M, Islam SMS, Janodia MD, Jha RP, Jindal HA, Jonas JB, Kabito GG, Kandel H, Kaur RJ, Keshri VR, Khader YS, Khan EA, Khan MJ, AB Khan M, Kashani HRK, Khubchandani J, Kim YJ, Kisa A, Klugarova J, Kolahi A-A, Koohestani HR, Koyanagi A, Kumar GA, Kumar N, Lallukka T, Lasrado S, Lee W-C, Lee YH, Mahmoodpoor A, Malagon-Rojas JN, Malekpour M-R, Malekzadeh R, Malih N, Mehndiratta MM, Nasab EM, Menezes RG, Mentis A-FA, Mesregah MK, Miller TR, Mirza-Aghazadeh-Attari M, Mobarakabadi M, Mohammad Y, Mohammadi E, Mohammed S, Mokdad AH, Momtazmanesh S, Monasta L, Moni MA, Mostafavi E, Murret al., 2023, Global, regional, and national burden of low back pain, 1990-2020, its attributable risk factors, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, LANCET RHEUMATOLOGY, Vol: 5, Pages: E316-E329, ISSN: 2665-9913

Journal article

Carter A, Rawaf S, 2023, The “binocular model” of hospital planning for quality improvement, Hospital Administration and Medical Practices, Vol: 2

Journal article

Momtazmanesh S, Moghaddam SS, Ghamari S-H, Rad EM, Rezaei N, Shobeiri P, Aali A, Abbasi-Kangevari M, Abbasi-Kangevari Z, Abdelmasseh M, Abdoun M, Abdulah DM, Abdullah AYM, Abedi A, Abolhassani H, Abrehdari-Tafreshi Z, Achappa B, Adane DEA, Adane TD, Addo IY, Adnan M, Adnani QES, Ahmad S, Ahmadi A, Ahmadi K, Ahmed A, Ahmed A, Rashid TA, Al Hamad H, Alahdab F, Alemayehu A, Alif SM, Aljunid SM, Almustanyir S, Altirkawi KA, Alvis-Guzman N, Dehkordi JA, Amir-Behghadami M, Ancuceanu R, Andrei CL, Andrei T, Antony CM, Anyasodor AE, Arabloo J, Arulappan J, Ashraf T, Athari SS, Attia EF, Ayele MT, Azadnajafabad S, Babu AS, Bagherieh S, Baltatu OC, Banach M, Bardhan M, Barone-Adesi F, Barrow A, Basu S, Bayileyegn NS, Bensenor IM, Bhardwaj N, Bhardwaj P, Bhat AN, Bhattacharyya K, Bouaoud S, Braithwaite D, Brauer M, Butt MH, Butt ZA, Calina D, Camera LA, Chanie GS, Charalampous P, Chattu VK, Chimed-Ochir O, Chu D-T, Cohen AJ, Cruz-Martins N, Dadras O, Darwesh AM, Das S, Debela SA, Delgado-Ortiz D, Dereje D, Dianatinasab M, Diao N, Diaz D, Digesa LE, Dirirsa G, Doku PN, Dongarwar D, Douiri A, Dsouza HL, Eini E, Ekholuenetale M, Ekundayo TC, Elagali AEM, Elhadi M, Enyew DB, Erkhembayar R, Etaee F, Fagbamigbe AF, Faro A, Fatehizadeh A, Fekadu G, Filip I, Fischer F, Foroutan M, Franklin RC, Andras Gaal P, Gaihre S, Gaipov A, Gebrehiwot M, Gerema U, Getachew ME, Getachew T, Ghafourifard M, Ghanbari R, Ghashghaee A, Gholami A, Gil AU, Golechha M, Goleij P, Golinelli D, Guadie HA, Gupta B, Gupta S, Gupta VB, Gupta VK, Hadei M, Halwani R, Hanif A, Hargono A, Harorani M, Hartono RK, Hasani H, Hashi A, Hay S, Heidari M, Hellemons ME, Herteliu C, Holla R, Horita N, Hoseini M, Hosseinzadeh M, Huang J, Hussain S, Hwang B-F, Iavicoli I, Ibitoye SE, Ibrahim S, Ilesanmi OS, Ilic IM, Ilic MD, Immurana M, Ismail NE, Merin JL, Jakovljevic M, Jamshidi E, Janodia MD, Javaheri T, Jayapal SK, Jayaram S, Jha RP, Johnson O, Joo T, Joseph N, Jozwiak JJ, Vaishali K, Kaambwa B, Kabir Z, Kalankesh LR, Kalhet al., 2023, Global burden of chronic respiratory diseases and risk factors, 1990-2019: an update from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, ECLINICALMEDICINE, Vol: 59

Journal article

Rawaf S, Tabche C, Christodoulou G, Rawaf D, Quezada-Yamamoto Het al., 2023, Person-Centered Prevention, Person Centered Medicine, Publisher: Springer, Cham, ISBN: 978-3-031-17650-0

Book chapter

Mangieri CW, Valenzuela CD, Strode MA, Erali RA, Shen P, Howerton R, Clark CJet al., 2023, Effect of preoperative liver-directed therapy prior to hepatic resection., Am J Surg, Vol: 225, Pages: 703-708

INTRODUCTION: Hepatobiliary malignancies present with advanced disease precluding upfront resection. Liver-directed therapy (LDT), particularly Y-90 radioembolization and transarterial chemoembolization (TACE), has become increasingly utilized to facilitate attempt at oncologic resection. However, the safety profile of preoperative LDT is limited. METHODS: Retrospective review of the ACS NSQIP main and targeted hepatectomy registries for 2014-2016. Primary objective was evaluation of outcomes between preoperative LDT cases and those that received upfront resection. RESULTS: A total of 8923 cases met selection criteria. 192 cases (2.15%) received either Y-90 or TACE prior to hepatectomy. Multivariate analysis for all study patients revealed preoperative LDT significantly increased the risk of perioperative transfusion (OR 2.19, 95% CI 1.445-3.328, P < 0.0001), sepsis (OR 2.21, 95% CI 1.104-4.411, P = 0.022), and liver failure (OR 2.72, 95% CI 1.562-4.747, P < 0.0001). Subgroup analysis found for primary hepatobiliary malignancies LDT only increased the risk for liver failure. While for secondary hepatic tumors LDT significantly increased perioperative transfusion, sepsis, cardiac failure, renal failure, liver failure, and mortality. The complication profile also significantly increased with advanced T stage. Conversely, on propensity score matching preoperative LDT did not significantly increase perioperative complications. CONCLUSION: Preoperative LDT has the potential to convert inoperable hepatic tumors into resectable disease but there is a general increased risk for significant postoperative complications, most notable liver failure. However, on controlled analysis preoperative LDT does not increase perioperative complications and should not be considered a contraindication to resection.

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