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Alhilfi R, Khaleel H, Raheem B, et al., 2023, Large outbreak of Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever in Iraq, 2022, IJID Regions, Vol: 6, Pages: 76-79, ISSN: 2772-7076
BackgroundCrimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is reported sporadically in Iraq. The lack of preventive veterinary activities during 2 years of the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic (2020 and 2021) led to the largest CCHF outbreak in Iraq since 1979.ObjectiveTo describe the epidemiological characteristics of CCHF cases that occurred during the first half of 2022 in Iraq in terms of age, sex, residence, history of contact with another case, and history of contact with animals.Materials and methodsThis descriptive study included laboratory-confirmed cases of CCHF between 1st January 2022 and 26th June 2022. Frequencies and percentages were used to describe the demographic and epidemiologic criteria of the cases. The epidemic curve of the cases was used to describe the timing and duration of the outbreak.ResultsIn total, there were 219 confirmed cases of CCHF from 1st January 2022 to 26th June 2022. The first confirmed case was reported in March 2022, and cases continued to occur through June 2022. The median age of the cases was 34.5 years. The majority of cases were male (n=130, 59.4%), had an unspecified job (n=126, 57.5%) and lived in southern Iraq (n=142, 64.8%). The first case was reported in week 10 of 2022. Case numbers peaked in week 24 (30 cases were reported), and subsequently declined in week 25 (24 cases were reported). The case fatality rate was 16.4%.Conclusion and recommendationsThe CCHF outbreak in 2022 was the largest in Iraq since the disease was first reported four decades ago. Identification of CCHF strains in Iraq is recommended, together with exploration of the knowledge, attitudes and practices of high-risk groups for CCHF, and a national survey of CCHF vectors in Iraq.
Leyns C, Willems S, Powell R, et al., 2023, From disease to people-centred pandemic management: health equity through Community Organization, Health Information Systems and Community Oriented Primary Care, BMJ Global Health, ISSN: 2059-7908
Haeuser E, Serfes AL, Cork MA, et al., 2022, Mapping age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence in adults in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000-2018, BMC MEDICINE, Vol: 20, ISSN: 1741-7015
Ikuta KS, Swetschinski LR, Aguilar GR, et al., 2022, Global mortality associated with 33 bacterial pathogens in 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, The Lancet, Vol: 400, Pages: 2221-2248, ISSN: 0140-6736
BackgroundReducing the burden of death due to infection is an urgent global public health priority. Previous studies have estimated the number of deaths associated with drug-resistant infections and sepsis and found that infections remain a leading cause of death globally. Understanding the global burden of common bacterial pathogens (both susceptible and resistant to antimicrobials) is essential to identify the greatest threats to public health. To our knowledge, this is the first study to present global comprehensive estimates of deaths associated with 33 bacterial pathogens across 11 major infectious syndromes.MethodsWe estimated deaths associated with 33 bacterial genera or species across 11 infectious syndromes in 2019 using methods from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, in addition to a subset of the input data described in the Global Burden of Antimicrobial Resistance 2019 study. This study included 343 million individual records or isolates covering 11 361 study-location-years. We used three modelling steps to estimate the number of deaths associated with each pathogen: deaths in which infection had a role, the fraction of deaths due to infection that are attributable to a given infectious syndrome, and the fraction of deaths due to an infectious syndrome that are attributable to a given pathogen. Estimates were produced for all ages and for males and females across 204 countries and territories in 2019. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for final estimates of deaths and infections associated with the 33 bacterial pathogens following standard GBD methods by taking the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles across 1000 posterior draws for each quantity of interest.FindingsFrom an estimated 13·7 million (95% UI 10·9–17·1) infection-related deaths in 2019, there were 7·7 million deaths (5·7–10·2) associated with the 33 bacterial pathogens (bo
Reiner RC, LBD Triple Burden Collaborators, Hay SI, 2022, The overlapping burden of the three leading causes of disability and death in sub-Saharan African children., Nat Commun, Vol: 13
Despite substantial declines since 2000, lower respiratory infections (LRIs), diarrhoeal diseases, and malaria remain among the leading causes of nonfatal and fatal disease burden for children under 5 years of age (under 5), primarily in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The spatial burden of each of these diseases has been estimated subnationally across SSA, yet no prior analyses have examined the pattern of their combined burden. Here we synthesise subnational estimates of the burden of LRIs, diarrhoea, and malaria in children under-5 from 2000 to 2017 for 43 sub-Saharan countries. Some units faced a relatively equal burden from each of the three diseases, while others had one or two dominant sources of unit-level burden, with no consistent pattern geographically across the entire subcontinent. Using a subnational counterfactual analysis, we show that nearly 300 million DALYs could have been averted since 2000 by raising all units to their national average. Our findings are directly relevant for decision-makers in determining which and targeting where the most appropriate interventions are for increasing child survival.
Lozano R, Haakenstad A, Yearwood JA, et al., 2022, Assessing performance of the Healthcare Access and Quality Index, overall and by select age groups, for 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, The Lancet Global Health, Vol: 10, Pages: E1715-E1743, ISSN: 2214-109X
BackgroundHealth-care needs change throughout the life course. It is thus crucial to assess whether health systems provide access to quality health care for all ages. Drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019), we measured the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index overall and for select age groups in 204 locations from 1990 to 2019.MethodsWe distinguished the overall HAQ Index (ages 0–74 years) from scores for select age groups: the young (ages 0–14 years), working (ages 15–64 years), and post-working (ages 65–74 years) groups. For GBD 2019, HAQ Index construction methods were updated to use the arithmetic mean of scaled mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs) and risk-standardised death rates (RSDRs) for 32 causes of death that should not occur in the presence of timely, quality health care. Across locations and years, MIRs and RSDRs were scaled from 0 (worst) to 100 (best) separately, putting the HAQ Index on a different relative scale for each age group. We estimated absolute convergence for each group on the basis of whether the HAQ Index grew faster in absolute terms between 1990 and 2019 in countries with lower 1990 HAQ Index scores than countries with higher 1990 HAQ Index scores and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. SDI is a summary metric of overall development.FindingsBetween 1990 and 2019, the HAQ Index increased overall (by 19·6 points, 95% uncertainty interval 17·9–21·3), as well as among the young (22·5, 19·9–24·7), working (17·2, 15·2–19·1), and post-working (15·1, 13·2–17·0) age groups. Large differences in HAQ Index scores were present across SDI levels in 2019, with the overall index ranging from 30·7 (28·6–33·0) on average in low-SDI countries to 83·4 (82·4–84·3) on average in high-SDI countries. Similarly
Al-Koubaisy H, Tabche C, Rawaf S, 2022, A retrospective study: Cholera in Baghdad 2015, Science Journal of Public Health, Vol: 10, Pages: 252-255, ISSN: 2328-7942
From June to December 2015, Iraq's capital city, Baghdad, suffered a cholera epidemic. Al-Yarmouk Teaching Hospital (AYTH) is the second main hospital in Baghdad City, located close to the epidemic epicentre and recorded events as they unfolded. A retrospective audit of hospital records was done in this study. Clinical and sociodemographic data were collected on the population, including adult patients admitted to AYTH with a confirmed diagnosis of cholera by the Central Public Health Laboratory (CPHL). The confirmed cases were 940. Of those cases, 21% attended AYTH. Initial belt zone cases totalled 44.16% of hospital cases, of which 65 were dependent on agricultural products from neighbouring farms. All patients were positive for the Inaba Vibrio Cholera strain. Baghdad’s cholera epidemic may have resulted from inhabitants’ dependence on local water sources for agricultural needs. During summer, severed water supplies denied Baghdad’s Dijla River water access forced farmers and locals to source well water. To protect the public and environmental safety, groundwater must be accurately and regularly tested in the region. Safe drinking water and sanitary toilet facilities must be guaranteed.
Awedew AF, Han H, Abbasi B, et al., 2022, The global, regional, and national burden of benign prostatic hyperplasia in 204 countries and territories from 2000 to 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, The Lancet Healthy Longevity, Vol: 3, Pages: e754-e776, ISSN: 2666-7568
BackgroundBenign prostatic hyperplasia is a common urological disease affecting older men worldwide, but comprehensive data about the global, regional, and national burden of benign prostatic hyperplasia and its trends over time are scarce. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we estimated global trends in, and prevalence of, benign prostatic hyperplasia and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to benign prostatic hyperplasia, in 21 regions and 204 countries and territories from 2000 to 2019.MethodsThis study was conducted with GBD 2019 analytical and modelling strategies. Primary prevalence data came from claims from three countries and from hospital inpatient encounters from 45 locations. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR version 2.1, was used to estimate the age-specific, location-specific, and year-specific prevalence of benign prostatic hyperplasia. Age-standardised prevalence was calculated by the direct method using the GBD reference population. Years lived with disability (YLDs) due to benign prostatic hyperplasia were estimated by multiplying the disability weight by the symptomatic proportion of the prevalence of benign prostatic hyperplasia. Because we did not estimate years of life lost associated with benign prostatic hyperplasia, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) equalled YLDs. The final estimates were compared across Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintiles. The 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were estimated as the 25th and 975th of 1000 ordered draws from a bootstrap distribution.FindingsGlobally, there were 94·0 million (95% UI 73·2 to 118) prevalent cases of benign prostatic hyperplasia in 2019, compared with 51·1 million (43·1 to 69·3) cases in 2000. The age-standardised prevalence of benign prostatic hyperplasia was 2480 (1940 to 3090) per 100 000 people. Although the global number of prevalent cases increased by 70·5% (
GBD 2019 LRI Collaborators, 2022, Age-sex differences in the global burden of lower respiratory infections and risk factors, 1990-2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019., Lancet Infect Dis, Vol: 22, Pages: 1626-1647
BACKGROUND: The global burden of lower respiratory infections (LRIs) and corresponding risk factors in children older than 5 years and adults has not been studied as comprehensively as it has been in children younger than 5 years. We assessed the burden and trends of LRIs and risk factors across all age groups by sex, for 204 countries and territories. METHODS: In this analysis of data for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we used clinician-diagnosed pneumonia or bronchiolitis as our case definition for LRIs. We included International Classification of Diseases 9th edition codes 079.6, 466-469, 470.0, 480-482.8, 483.0-483.9, 484.1-484.2, 484.6-484.7, and 487-489 and International Classification of Diseases 10th edition codes A48.1, A70, B97.4-B97.6, J09-J15.8, J16-J16.9, J20-J21.9, J91.0, P23.0-P23.4, and U04-U04.9. We used the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling strategy to analyse 23 109 site-years of vital registration data, 825 site-years of sample vital registration data, 1766 site-years of verbal autopsy data, and 681 site-years of mortality surveillance data. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, to analyse age-sex-specific incidence and prevalence data identified via systematic reviews of the literature, population-based survey data, and claims and inpatient data. Additionally, we estimated age-sex-specific LRI mortality that is attributable to the independent effects of 14 risk factors. FINDINGS: Globally, in 2019, we estimated that there were 257 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 240-275) LRI incident episodes in males and 232 million (217-248) in females. In the same year, LRIs accounted for 1·30 million (95% UI 1·18-1·42) male deaths and 1·20 million (1·07-1·33) female deaths. Age-standardised incidence and mortality rates were 1·17 times (95% UI 1·16-1·18) and 1·31 times (95% UI 1·23-1·41) greater in males th
European Antimicrobial Resistance Collaborators, 2022, The burden of bacterial antimicrobial resistance in the WHO European region in 2019: a cross-country systematic analysis., Lancet Public Health, Vol: 7, Pages: e897-e913
BACKGROUND: Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) represents one of the most crucial threats to public health and modern health care. Previous studies have identified challenges with estimating the magnitude of the problem and its downstream effect on human health and mortality. To our knowledge, this study presents the most comprehensive set of regional and country-level estimates of AMR burden in the WHO European region to date. METHODS: We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life-years attributable to and associated with AMR for 23 bacterial pathogens and 88 pathogen-drug combinations for the WHO European region and its countries in 2019. Our methodological approach consisted of five broad components: the number of deaths in which infection had a role, the proportion of infectious deaths attributable to a given infectious syndrome, the proportion of infectious syndrome deaths attributable to a given pathogen, the percentage of a given pathogen resistant to an antimicrobial drug of interest, and the excess risk of mortality (or duration of an infection) associated with this resistance. These components were then used to estimate the disease burden by using two counterfactual scenarios: deaths attributable to AMR (considering an alternative scenario where infections with resistant pathogens are replaced with susceptible ones) and deaths associated with AMR (considering an alternative scenario where drug-resistant infections would not occur at all). Data were solicited from a wide array of international stakeholders; these included research hospitals, surveillance networks, and infection databases maintained by private laboratories and medical technology companies. We generated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for final estimates as the 25th and 975th ordered values across 1000 posterior draws, and models were cross-validated for out-of-sample predictive validity. FINDINGS: We estimated 541 000 deaths (95% UI 370 000-763 000) associated with bacterial AMR and 133 000 d
Roberts NLS, Johnson EK, Zeng SM, et al., 2022, Global mortality of snakebite envenoming between 1990 and 2019, NATURE COMMUNICATIONS, Vol: 13
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Mangieri CW, Valenzuela CD, Strode MA, et al., 2022, Effect of preoperative liver-directed therapy prior to hepatic resection., Am J Surg
INTRODUCTION: Hepatobiliary malignancies present with advanced disease precluding upfront resection. Liver-directed therapy (LDT), particularly Y-90 radioembolization and transarterial chemoembolization (TACE), has become increasingly utilized to facilitate attempt at oncologic resection. However, the safety profile of preoperative LDT is limited. METHODS: Retrospective review of the ACS NSQIP main and targeted hepatectomy registries for 2014-2016. Primary objective was evaluation of outcomes between preoperative LDT cases and those that received upfront resection. RESULTS: A total of 8923 cases met selection criteria. 192 cases (2.15%) received either Y-90 or TACE prior to hepatectomy. Multivariate analysis for all study patients revealed preoperative LDT significantly increased the risk of perioperative transfusion (OR 2.19, 95% CI 1.445-3.328, P < 0.0001), sepsis (OR 2.21, 95% CI 1.104-4.411, P = 0.022), and liver failure (OR 2.72, 95% CI 1.562-4.747, P < 0.0001). Subgroup analysis found for primary hepatobiliary malignancies LDT only increased the risk for liver failure. While for secondary hepatic tumors LDT significantly increased perioperative transfusion, sepsis, cardiac failure, renal failure, liver failure, and mortality. The complication profile also significantly increased with advanced T stage. Conversely, on propensity score matching preoperative LDT did not significantly increase perioperative complications. CONCLUSION: Preoperative LDT has the potential to convert inoperable hepatic tumors into resectable disease but there is a general increased risk for significant postoperative complications, most notable liver failure. However, on controlled analysis preoperative LDT does not increase perioperative complications and should not be considered a contraindication to resection.
, 2022, Health Beliefs and Cardiovascular Risk among Saudi Women: A Cross Sectional Study, Family Medicine and Primary Care: Open Access, Vol: 6
Frostad JJ, Nguyen QP, Baumann MM, et al., 2022, Mapping development and health effects of cooking with solid fuels in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000–18: a geospatial modelling study, The Lancet Global Health, Vol: 10, Pages: e1395-e1411, ISSN: 2214-109X
BackgroundMore than 3 billion people do not have access to clean energy and primarily use solid fuels to cook. Use of solid fuels generates household air pollution, which was associated with more than 2 million deaths in 2019. Although local patterns in cooking vary systematically, subnational trends in use of solid fuels have yet to be comprehensively analysed. We estimated the prevalence of solid-fuel use with high spatial resolution to explore subnational inequalities, assess local progress, and assess the effects on health in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) without universal access to clean fuels.MethodsWe did a geospatial modelling study to map the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking at a 5 km × 5 km resolution in 98 LMICs based on 2·1 million household observations of the primary cooking fuel used from 663 population-based household surveys over the years 2000 to 2018. We use observed temporal patterns to forecast household air pollution in 2030 and to assess the probability of attaining the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target indicator for clean cooking. We aligned our estimates of household air pollution to geospatial estimates of ambient air pollution to establish the risk transition occurring in LMICs. Finally, we quantified the effect of residual primary solid-fuel use for cooking on child health by doing a counterfactual risk assessment to estimate the proportion of deaths from lower respiratory tract infections in children younger than 5 years that could be associated with household air pollution.FindingsAlthough primary reliance on solid-fuel use for cooking has declined globally, it remains widespread. 593 million people live in districts where the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking exceeds 95%. 66% of people in LMICs live in districts that are not on track to meet the SDG target for universal access to clean energy by 2030. Household air pollution continues to be a major contributor to particulate exposure
Schmidt CA, Cromwell EA, Hill E, et al., 2022, The prevalence of onchocerciasis in Africa and Yemen, 2000–2018: a geospatial analysis, BMC Medicine, Vol: 20, ISSN: 1741-7015
BackgroundOnchocerciasis is a disease caused by infection with Onchocerca volvulus, which is transmitted to humans via the bite of several species of black fly, and is responsible for permanent blindness or vision loss, as well as severe skin disease. Predominantly endemic in parts of Africa and Yemen, preventive chemotherapy with mass drug administration of ivermectin is the primary intervention recommended for the elimination of its transmission.MethodsA dataset of 18,116 geo-referenced prevalence survey datapoints was used to model annual 2000–2018 infection prevalence in Africa and Yemen. Using Bayesian model-based geostatistics, we generated spatially continuous estimates of all-age 2000–2018 onchocerciasis infection prevalence at the 5 × 5-km resolution as well as aggregations to the national level, along with corresponding estimates of the uncertainty in these predictions.ResultsAs of 2018, the prevalence of onchocerciasis infection continues to be concentrated across central and western Africa, with the highest mean estimates at the national level in Ghana (12.2%, 95% uncertainty interval [UI] 5.0–22.7). Mean estimates exceed 5% infection prevalence at the national level for Cameroon, Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Guinea-Bissau, Sierra Leone, and South Sudan.ConclusionsOur analysis suggests that onchocerciasis infection has declined over the last two decades throughout western and central Africa. Focal areas of Angola, Cameroon, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Ghana, Guinea, Mali, Nigeria, South Sudan, and Uganda continue to have mean microfiladermia prevalence estimates exceeding 25%. At and above this level, the continuation or initiation of mass drug administration with ivermectin is supported. If national programs aim to eliminate onchocerciasis infection, additional surveillance or supervision of areas of predicted high prevalence would be warranted to ensure sufficiently high c
GBD 2019 Hepatitis B Collaborators, 2022, Global, regional, and national burden of hepatitis B, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, The Lancet Gastroenterology & Hepatology, Vol: 7, Pages: 796-829, ISSN: 2468-1253
BACKGROUND: Combating viral hepatitis is part of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and WHO has put forth hepatitis B elimination targets in its Global Health Sector Strategy on Viral Hepatitis (WHO-GHSS) and Interim Guidance for Country Validation of Viral Hepatitis Elimination (WHO Interim Guidance). We estimated the global, regional, and national prevalence of hepatitis B virus (HBV), as well as mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to HBV, as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. This included estimates for 194 WHO member states, for which we compared our estimates to WHO elimination targets. METHODS: The primary data sources were population-based serosurveys, claims and hospital discharges, cancer registries, vital registration systems, and published case series. We estimated chronic HBV infection and the burden of HBV-related diseases, defined as an aggregate of cirrhosis due to hepatitis B, liver cancer due to hepatitis B, and acute hepatitis B. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian mixed-effects meta-regression tool, to estimate the prevalence of chronic HBV infection, cirrhosis, and aetiological proportions of cirrhosis. We used mortality-to-incidence ratios modelled with spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression to estimate the incidence of liver cancer. We used the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling (CODEm) model, a tool that selects models and covariates on the basis of out-of-sample performance, to estimate mortality due to cirrhosis, liver cancer, and acute hepatitis B. FINDINGS: In 2019, the estimated global, all-age prevalence of chronic HBV infection was 4·1% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·7 to 4·5), corresponding to 316 million (284 to 351) infected people. There was a 31·3% (29·0 to 33·9) decline in all-age prevalence between 1990 and 2019, with a more marked decline of 76·8% (76·2 to 77·5) in prevalence in childr
Khanh BT, Lang JJ, Compton K, et al., 2022, The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010-19: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, The Lancet, Vol: 400, Pages: 563-591, ISSN: 0140-6736
BackgroundUnderstanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally.MethodsThe GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk–outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented.FindingsGlobally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4·45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4·01–4·94) deaths and 105 million (95·0–116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44·4% (41·3–48·4) of all cancer deaths and 42·0% (39·1–45·6) of all DALYs. There were 2·88 million (2·60–3·18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50·6% [47·8–54·1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1·58 million (1·36–1·84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36·3% [32·5–41·3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk fac
Hertelendy AJ, Chekijian S, McNulty E, et al., 2022, Crisis leadership: a case for inclusion in accredited Master of Public Health program curricula, Public Health, Vol: 209, Pages: 14-18, ISSN: 0033-3506
OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the exposure to crisis leadership theory already present in Council on Education for Public Health (CEPH) accredited Master of Public Health (MPH) programs in the United States and provide a compelling case for its future inclusion. STUDY DESIGN: This was a narrative review. METHODS: We compiled a comprehensive list of 179 CEPH schools that offered an MPH program. During January through March 2021, we examined 179 websites for the core courses and elective courses offered in the MPH degree program to determine if any courses covered the topics of leadership, crisis leadership, or crisis management in either the course title or description. RESULTS: Leadership courses were available in only 55.31% of CEPH-accredited schools. Only a single program (0.56%) offers a crisis leadership course. CONCLUSIONS: The current global COVID-19 pandemic and reality of climate-induced disasters have brought crises to the forefront for health systems. Successful leadership for the future requires public health leaders to have training in crisis leadership. The evaluation and revision of public health curricula must focus on leadership competency development to prepare graduates to lead complex multiple crisis events and system shocks simultaneously.
GBD 2019 Adolescent Transport and Unintentional Injuries Collaborators, 2022, Adolescent transport and unintentional injuries: a systematic analysis using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019., The Lancet Public Health, Vol: 7, Pages: e657-e669, ISSN: 2468-2667
BACKGROUND: Globally, transport and unintentional injuries persist as leading preventable causes of mortality and morbidity for adolescents. We sought to report comprehensive trends in injury-related mortality and morbidity for adolescents aged 10-24 years during the past three decades. METHODS: Using the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2019 Study, we analysed mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributed to transport and unintentional injuries for adolescents in 204 countries. Burden is reported in absolute numbers and age-standardised rates per 100 000 population by sex, age group (10-14, 15-19, and 20-24 years), and sociodemographic index (SDI) with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We report percentage changes in deaths and DALYs between 1990 and 2019. FINDINGS: In 2019, 369 061 deaths (of which 214 337 [58%] were transport related) and 31·1 million DALYs (of which 16·2 million [52%] were transport related) among adolescents aged 10-24 years were caused by transport and unintentional injuries combined. If compared with other causes, transport and unintentional injuries combined accounted for 25% of deaths and 14% of DALYs in 2019, and showed little improvement from 1990 when such injuries accounted for 26% of adolescent deaths and 17% of adolescent DALYs. Throughout adolescence, transport and unintentional injury fatality rates increased by age group. The unintentional injury burden was higher among males than females for all injury types, except for injuries related to fire, heat, and hot substances, or to adverse effects of medical treatment. From 1990 to 2019, global mortality rates declined by 34·4% (from 17·5 to 11·5 per 100 000) for transport injuries, and by 47·7% (from 15·9 to 8·3 per 100 000) for unintentional injuries. However, in low-SDI nations the absolute number of deaths increased (by 80·5% to 42 774 for transport
Saad RK, Abu Khudair S, El Rabbat M, et al., 2022, Published Research on COVID-19 in the Eastern Mediterranean Region: Bibliometric Analysis., Interact J Med Res, Vol: 11, ISSN: 1929-073X
BACKGROUND: The challenges presented by the COVID-19 pandemic have led to unprecedented global research activity. The Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) continues to contribute to COVID-19 research driven by the unique challenges of the region, including the protracted conflicts, already stressed health systems, and serious health and social inequalities. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to provide an overview of the publication activities and trends in COVID-19 research in the EMR from the onset of the disease to early 2022 using bibliometric methods. METHODS: A literature search using Scopus was conducted from December 1, 2019, to January 31, 2022, using keywords relevant to COVID-19 and the World Health Organization (WHO) EMR country list. Data were exported and analyzed using Microsoft Excel and the Citation Overview function on Scopus. The quality of journals was determined using SCImago Journal Rank and CiteScore. VOSviewer software was used to visualize the relationships between authors, countries, and key terms used in the retrieved documents. RESULTS: A total of 6880 documents were retrieved, of which 1805 (26.24%) were from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) and 1782 (25.90%) from Iran, followed by Pakistan, Egypt, and Jordan. Most published documents were affiliated with EMR universities, primarily the Tehran University of Medical Sciences in Iran and King Saud University in KSA (396/6880, 5.76%, and 370/6880, 5.4%, respectively), while only 407 (5.92%) of 6880 documents were associated with universities outside the EMR. For most of the identified publications (5020/6880, 72.97%), no funding source was reported, while King Saud University contributed the largest share (282/1860, 15.16%) of funded publications. Retrieved documents were cited 53,516 times, with an average of 7.78 (SD 34.30). Iran was the EMR country with the most links to other countries (77 links and total link strength of 1279). The 5 authors with the most publications were from KSA, Qatar, and
Bryazka D, Reitsma MB, Griswold MG, et al., 2022, Population-level risks of alcohol consumption by amount, geography, age, sex, and year: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020, The Lancet, Vol: 400, Pages: 185-235, ISSN: 0140-6736
BackgroundThe health risks associated with moderate alcohol consumption continue to be debated. Small amounts of alcohol might lower the risk of some health outcomes but increase the risk of others, suggesting that the overall risk depends, in part, on background disease rates, which vary by region, age, sex, and year.MethodsFor this analysis, we constructed burden-weighted dose–response relative risk curves across 22 health outcomes to estimate the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL) and non-drinker equivalence (NDE), the consumption level at which the health risk is equivalent to that of a non-drinker, using disease rates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020 for 21 regions, including 204 countries and territories, by 5-year age group, sex, and year for individuals aged 15–95 years and older from 1990 to 2020. Based on the NDE, we quantified the population consuming harmful amounts of alcohol.FindingsThe burden-weighted relative risk curves for alcohol use varied by region and age. Among individuals aged 15–39 years in 2020, the TMREL varied between 0 (95% uncertainty interval 0–0) and 0·603 (0·400–1·00) standard drinks per day, and the NDE varied between 0·002 (0–0) and 1·75 (0·698–4·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals aged 40 years and older, the burden-weighted relative risk curve was J-shaped for all regions, with a 2020 TMREL that ranged from 0·114 (0–0·403) to 1·87 (0·500–3·30) standard drinks per day and an NDE that ranged between 0·193 (0–0·900) and 6·94 (3·40–8·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals consuming harmful amounts of alcohol in 2020, 59·1% (54·3–65·4) were aged 15–39 years and 76·9% (73·0–81·3) were male.InterpretationThere is stron
GBD 2019 Colorectal Cancer Collaborators, 2022, Global, regional, and national burden of colorectal cancer and its risk factors, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, The Lancet Gastroenterology & Hepatology, Vol: 7, Pages: 627-647, ISSN: 2468-1253
BACKGROUND: Colorectal cancer is the third leading cause of cancer deaths worldwide. Given the recent increasing trends in colorectal cancer incidence globally, up-to-date information on the colorectal cancer burden could guide screening, early detection, and treatment strategies, and help effectively allocate resources. We examined the temporal patterns of the global, regional, and national burden of colorectal cancer and its risk factors in 204 countries and territories across the past three decades. METHODS: Estimates of incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for colorectal cancer were generated as a part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 by age, sex, and geographical location for the period 1990-2019. Mortality estimates were produced using the cause of death ensemble model. We also calculated DALYs attributable to risk factors that had evidence of causation with colorectal cancer. FINDINGS: Globally, between 1990 and 2019, colorectal cancer incident cases more than doubled, from 842 098 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 810 408-868 574) to 2·17 million (2·00-2·34), and deaths increased from 518 126 (493 682-537 877) to 1·09 million (1·02-1·15). The global age-standardised incidence rate increased from 22·2 (95% UI 21·3-23·0) per 100 000 to 26·7 (24·6-28·9) per 100 000, whereas the age-standardised mortality rate decreased from 14·3 (13·5-14·9) per 100 000 to 13·7 (12·6-14·5) per 100 000 and the age-standardised DALY rate decreased from 308·5 (294·7-320·7) per 100 000 to 295·5 (275·2-313·0) per 100 000 from 1990 through 2019. Taiwan (province of China; 62·0 [48·9-80·0] per 100 000), Monaco (60·7 [48·5-73&midd
Haakenstad A, Irvine CMS, Knight M, et al., 2022, Measuring the availability of human resources for health and its relationship to universal health coverage for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, LANCET, Vol: 399, Pages: 2129-2154, ISSN: 0140-6736
BackgroundHuman resources for health (HRH) include a range of occupations that aim to promote or improve human health. The UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the WHO Health Workforce 2030 strategy have drawn attention to the importance of HRH for achieving policy priorities such as universal health coverage (UHC). Although previous research has found substantial global disparities in HRH, the absence of comparable cross-national estimates of existing workforces has hindered efforts to quantify workforce requirements to meet health system goals. We aimed to use comparable and standardised data sources to estimate HRH densities globally, and to examine the relationship between a subset of HRH cadres and UHC effective coverage performance.MethodsThrough the International Labour Organization and Global Health Data Exchange databases, we identified 1404 country-years of data from labour force surveys and 69 country-years of census data, with detailed microdata on health-related employment. From the WHO National Health Workforce Accounts, we identified 2950 country-years of data. We mapped data from all occupational coding systems to the International Standard Classification of Occupations 1988 (ISCO-88), allowing for standardised estimation of densities for 16 categories of health workers across the full time series. Using data from 1990 to 2019 for 196 of 204 countries and territories, covering seven Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) super-regions and 21 regions, we applied spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) to model HRH densities from 1990 to 2019 for all countries and territories. We used stochastic frontier meta-regression to model the relationship between the UHC effective coverage index and densities for the four categories of health workers enumerated in SDG indicator 3.c.1 pertaining to HRH: physicians, nurses and midwives, dentistry personnel, and pharmaceutical personnel. We identified minimum workforce
Armocida B, Monasta L, Sawyer S, et al., 2022, Burden of non-communicable diseases among adolescents aged 10–24 years in the EU, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019, The Lancet Child & Adolescent Health, Vol: 6, Pages: 367-383, ISSN: 2352-4642
BackgroundDisability and mortality burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) have risen worldwide; however, the NCD burden among adolescents remains poorly described in the EU.MethodsEstimates were retrieved from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. Causes of NCDs were analysed at three different levels of the GBD 2019 hierarchy, for which mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were extracted. Estimates, with the 95% uncertainty intervals (UI), were retrieved for EU Member States from 1990 to 2019, three age subgroups (10–14 years, 15–19 years, and 20–24 years), and by sex. Spearman's correlation was conducted between DALY rates for NCDs and the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) of each EU Member State.FindingsIn 2019, NCDs accounted for 86·4% (95% uncertainty interval 83·5–88·8) of all YLDs and 38·8% (37·4–39·8) of total deaths in adolescents aged 10–24 years. For NCDs in this age group, neoplasms were the leading causes of both mortality (4·01 [95% uncertainty interval 3·62–4·25] per 100 000 population) and YLLs (281·78 [254·25–298·92] per 100 000 population), whereas mental disorders were the leading cause for YLDs (2039·36 [1432·56–2773·47] per 100 000 population) and DALYs (2040·59 [1433·96–2774·62] per 100 000 population) in all EU Member States, and in all studied age groups. In 2019, among adolescents aged 10–24 years, males had a higher mortality rate per 100 000 population due to NCDs than females (11·66 [11·04–12·28] vs 7·89 [7·53–8·23]), whereas females presented a higher DALY rate per 100 000 population due to NCDs (8003·25 [5812·78–10&thi
Haagsma JA, Charalampous P, Ariani F, et al., 2022, The burden of injury in Central, Eastern, and Western European sub-region: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 Study, Archives of Public Health, Vol: 80, Pages: 1-14, ISSN: 0778-7367
BackgroundInjury remains a major concern to public health in the European region. Previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study showed wide variation in injury death and disability adjusted life year (DALY) rates across Europe, indicating injury inequality gaps between sub-regions and countries. The objectives of this study were to: 1) compare GBD 2019 estimates on injury mortality and DALYs across European sub-regions and countries by cause-of-injury category and sex; 2) examine changes in injury DALY rates over a 20 year-period by cause-of-injury category, sub-region and country; and 3) assess inequalities in injury mortality and DALY rates across the countries.MethodsWe performed a secondary database descriptive study using the GBD 2019 results on injuries in 44 European countries from 2000 to 2019. Inequality in DALY rates between these countries was assessed by calculating the DALY rate ratio between the highest-ranking country and lowest-ranking country in each year.ResultsIn 2019, in Eastern Europe 80 [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 71 to 89] people per 100,000 died from injuries; twice as high compared to Central Europe (38 injury deaths per 100,000; 95% UI 34 to 42) and three times as high compared to Western Europe (27 injury deaths per 100,000; 95%UI 25 to 28). The injury DALY rates showed less pronounced differences between Eastern (5129 DALYs per 100,000; 95% UI: 4547 to 5864), Central (2940 DALYs per 100,000; 95% UI: 2452 to 3546) and Western Europe (1782 DALYs per 100,000; 95% UI: 1523 to 2115). Injury DALY rate was lowest in Italy (1489 DALYs per 100,000) and highest in Ukraine (5553 DALYs per 100,000). The difference in injury DALY rates by country was larger for males compared to females. The DALY rate ratio was highest in 2005, with DALY rate in the lowest-ranking country (Russian Federation) 6.0 times higher compared to the highest-ranking country (Malta). After 2005, the DALY rate ratio between the lowest- and the highest-ranki
Castelpietra G, Knudsen AKS, Agardh EE, et al., 2022, The burden of mental disorders, substance use disorders and self-harm among young people in Europe, 1990-2019: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, The Lancet Regional Health Europe, Vol: 16, Pages: 1-18, ISSN: 2666-7762
BackgroundMental health is a public health issue for European young people, with great heterogeneity in resource allocation. Representative population-based studies are needed. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019 provides internationally comparable information on trends in the health status of populations and changes in the leading causes of disease burden over time.MethodsPrevalence, incidence, Years Lived with Disability (YLDs) and Years of Life Lost (YLLs) from mental disorders (MDs), substance use disorders (SUDs) and self-harm were estimated for young people aged 10-24 years in 31 European countries. Rates per 100,000 population, percentage changes in 1990-2019, 95% Uncertainty Intervals (UIs), and correlations with Sociodemographic Index (SDI), were estimated.FindingsIn 2019, rates per 100,000 population were 16,983 (95% UI 12,823 – 21,630) for MDs, 3,891 (3,020 - 4,905) for SUDs, and 89·1 (63·8 - 123·1) for self-harm. In terms of disability, anxiety contributed to 647·3 (432–912·3) YLDs, while in terms of premature death, self-harm contributed to 319·6 (248·9–412·8) YLLs, per 100,000 population. Over the 30 years studied, YLDs increased in eating disorders (14·9%;9·4-20·1) and drug use disorders (16·9%;8·9-26·3), and decreased in idiopathic developmental intellectual disability (–29·1%;23·8-38·5). YLLs decreased in self-harm (–27·9%;38·3-18·7). Variations were found by sex, age-group and country. The burden of SUDs and self-harm was higher in countries with lower SDI, MDs were associated with SUDs.InterpretationMental health conditions represent an important burden among young people living in Europe. National policies should strengthen mental health, with a specific focus on young people.FundingThe Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation
Rawaf S, Tabche C, 2022, Public health workforce development through virtually interactive training courses, Public Health Reviews, Vol: 43, ISSN: 2107-6952
Kusuma D, 2022, Global, regional, and national burden of diseases and injuries for adults 70 years and older: systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease 2019 Study, BMJ: British Medical Journal, Vol: 376, Pages: e068208-e068208, ISSN: 0959-535X
Objectives To use data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019) to estimate mortality and disability trends for the population aged ≥70 and evaluate patterns in causes of death, disability, and risk factors.Design Systematic analysis.Setting Participants were aged ≥70 from 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019.Main outcomes measures Years of life lost, years lived with disability, disability adjusted life years, life expectancy at age 70 (LE-70), healthy life expectancy at age 70 (HALE-70), proportion of years in ill health at age 70 (PYIH-70), risk factors, and data coverage index were estimated based on standardised GBD methods.Results Globally the population of older adults has increased since 1990 and all cause death rates have decreased for men and women. However, mortality rates due to falls increased between 1990 and 2019. The probability of death among people aged 70-90 decreased, mainly because of reductions in non-communicable diseases. Globally disability burden was largely driven by functional decline, vision and hearing loss, and symptoms of pain. LE-70 and HALE-70 showed continuous increases since 1990 globally, with certain regional disparities. Globally higher LE-70 resulted in higher HALE-70 and slightly increased PYIH-70. Sociodemographic and healthcare access and quality indices were positively correlated with HALE-70 and LE-70. For high exposure risk factors, data coverage was moderate, while limited data were available for various dietary, environmental or occupational, and metabolic risks.Conclusions Life expectancy at age 70 has continued to rise globally, mostly because of decreases in chronic diseases. Adults aged ≥70 living in high income countries and regions with better healthcare access and quality were found to experience the highest life expectancy and healthy life expectancy. Disability burden, however, remained constant, suggesting the need to enhance public health and intervent
Cousin E, Duncan BB, Stein C, et al., 2022, Diabetes mortality and trends before 25 years of age: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology, Vol: 10, Pages: 177-192, ISSN: 2213-8587
BackgroundDiabetes, particularly type 1 diabetes, at younger ages can be a largely preventable cause of death with the correct health care and services. We aimed to evaluate diabetes mortality and trends at ages younger than 25 years globally using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.MethodsWe used estimates of GBD 2019 to calculate international diabetes mortality at ages younger than 25 years in 1990 and 2019. Data sources for causes of death were obtained from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and other surveillance systems for 1990–2019. We estimated death rates for each location using the GBD Cause of Death Ensemble model. We analysed the association of age-standardised death rates per 100 000 population with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and a measure of universal health coverage (UHC) and described the variability within SDI quintiles. We present estimates with their 95% uncertainty intervals.FindingsIn 2019, 16 300 (95% uncertainty interval 14 200 to 18 900) global deaths due to diabetes (type 1 and 2 combined) occurred in people younger than 25 years and 73·7% (68·3 to 77·4) were classified as due to type 1 diabetes. The age-standardised death rate was 0·50 (0·44 to 0·58) per 100 000 population, and 15 900 (97·5%) of these deaths occurred in low to high-middle SDI countries. The rate was 0·13 (0·12 to 0·14) per 100 000 population in the high SDI quintile, 0·60 (0·51 to 0·70) per 100 000 population in the low-middle SDI quintile, and 0·71 (0·60 to 0·86) per 100 000 population in the low SDI quintile. Within SDI quintiles, we observed large variability in rates across countries, in part explained by the extent of UHC (r2=0·62). From 1990 to 2019, age-standardised death rates decreased globally by 17·0% (−
Nichols E, Steinmetz JD, Vollset SE, et al., 2022, Estimation of the global prevalence of dementia in 2019 and forecasted prevalence in 2050: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease 2019, LANCET PUBLIC HEALTH, Vol: 7, Pages: E105-E125, ISSN: 2468-2667
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