Imperial College London


Faculty of MedicineSchool of Public Health

Emeritus Reader







Medical SchoolSt Mary's Campus





I have worked as an epidemiologist for much of my career. I have published extensively on reproductive epidemiology, especially on biological fertility as assessed using the time taken to conceive - "Time To Pregnancy" or TTP. I developed and validated a method of measuring this in population samples using self reports, and together with colleagues, developed the methodological aspects of analysis of the data, which are highly complex.

Another area of epidemiological expertise is the use of causal systems to analyse epidemiological relationships (exposure-disease) in their broader context, whether biological and/or social. This also involved work on causal inference, including philosophical aspects.

More recently I have worked on a distinct approach to studying the economy, using methods that are well established in natural sciences such as biology - see the website gives a central place to causal relationships, and the evidence for them, both statistical (what philophers call "difference making") and mechanistic; causal systems (combinations of individual causal relationships) are also important here. Publications on this topic include both substantive economic studies and papers in economic methodology.

Peer-reviewed papers in economics and economic methodology since 2017:

Joffe M. 2017. Causal theories, models and evidence in economics - some reflections from the natural sciences. Cogent Economics & Finance 5: 1280983

Joffe M. 2017. The roots of growth: entrepreneurship, innovation and the capitalist firm. In Pyka A, Cantner U (eds.) Foundations of Economic Change – A Schumpeterian View on Behaviour, Interaction and Aggregate Outcomes, Springer.

Joffe M. 2017. Why does capital flow from poor to rich countries? – the real puzzle. Real-World Economics Review No. 81

Joffe M. 2017. Evidence and the micro-foundations of economic growth. Economics and Business Review 3(3): 52-79.

Joffe M. 2017. The neglect of buying power in traditional economic theory, and its practical implications. Advances in Economics & Business 5(8): 435-439.

Joffe M. 2018. Causation, Capacities, Flow, Initiative and Power in the Economic System. Advances in Economics and Business 6(2): 125-135.

Joffe M. 2018. The creation of jobs. Real-World Economics Review Issue No. 83

Joffe M. 2019. Mechanism in behavioural economics. Journal of Economic Methodology 26(3): 228-242.


Not yet published:

Equilibrium, instability, growth and feedback in economics (PDF)

Profit rate dynamics in US manufacturing (PDF)

Cost and price reduction in the transition to the modern economy (PDF)

Specific outcome measures to complement GDP (PDF)



Joffe M, 2019, Mechanism in behavioural economics, Journal of Economic Methodology, Vol:26, ISSN:1350-178X, Pages:228-242

Joffe M, 2017, Causal theories, models and evidence in economics-some reflections from the natural sciences, Cogent Economics and Finance, Vol:5, ISSN:2332-2039

Almond D, Edlund L, Joffe M, et al., 2016, An adaptive significance of morning sickness? Trivers-Willard and Hyperemesis Gravidarum, Economics & Human Biology, Vol:21, ISSN:1570-677X, Pages:167-171

Joffe M, 2015, Selection Bias Due to Parity-conditioning in Studies of Time Trends in Fertility, Epidemiology, Vol:26, ISSN:1044-3983, Pages:E67-E67

Rehfuess EA, Best N, Briggs DJ, et al., 2013, Diagram-based Analysis of Causal Systems (DACS): elucidating inter-relationships between determinants of acute lower respiratory infections among children in sub-Saharan Africa., Emerg Themes Epidemiol, Vol:10, ISSN:1742-7622

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