The climate is changing. The change in the average climatic conditions is a slow process over many decades but there is clear evidence that climate variability directly affects individuals’ environment, health and wellbeing.  This variability is expected to increase in the future, and consequently to exacerbate the overall impacts on health. This is a global  challenge, and the UK is not spared from this phenomenon.

Meteorological conditions can have a variety of impacts ranging from psychological stress to physical injury before leading to death. For example, high temperature aggravates chronic diseases, including cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. During the 2003 heatwave, the rate of hospitalisation in London increased by 16% for the 75 and over, and by 4% for the 0-64 age group in London. During the same period, emergency admissions were in excess of 1% across the UK (Johnson et al., 2005).

The effects of temperature extremes on mortality and morbidity have attracted most of the attention in the literature, mainly due to data availability and the direct relationship between temperature and deaths. Little is still known of the effects of a broader range of weather events such as cold spells, precipitation and wind, and on all the possible interaction effects between those events. For example the perception and effects of temperature vary with wind.

Economists at the Business School at Imperial College are currently collecting, integrating and investigating data on a large range of weather events (precipitation, sunshine duration, wind, pressure) to establish the impact on a broad set of diseases. Their analysis takes into account the interaction of the different weather aspects and their cumulative effects such as the consecutive number of dry days and its interaction with temperature.

The second objective of the team at Imperial College is therefore to estimate how individuals adapt to climate change and to account for their behavioural changes in the overall assessment of the impact of climate change on health.

A thorough understanding of these relationships is indispensable for the Public Health sector to develop an effective prevention plan. This includes precise and exhaustive costs estimates necessary to help the healthcare system frame an appropriate response, and to plan adequate resources.

Finally our project will produce costs estimates of the impact of weather on the healthcare sector. This research will support the development of public policies to mitigate the impact of climate change and will permit the identification of an efficient allocation of resources to protect the most vulnerable populations.

Economics research team:

• Professor Rifat Atun
• Professor Marisa Miraldo
• Professor Walter Distaso
• Dr Laure de Preux

Collaborating institutions:

• Harvard University
• Columbia University