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Taylor E, Jauneikaite E, Sriskandan S, et al., 2022, Detection and characterisation of 16S rRNA methyltransferase-producing Pseudomonas aeruginosa from the UK and Republic of Ireland from 2003-2015, International Journal of Antimicrobial Agents, Vol: 59, ISSN: 0924-8579
16S rRNA methyltransferase (16S RMTase) genes confer high-level aminoglycoside resistance, reducing treatment options for multidrug-resistant Gram-negative bacteria. Pseudomonas aeruginosa isolates (n = 221) exhibiting high-level pan-aminoglycoside resistance (amikacin, gentamicin and tobramycin MICs ≥64, ≥32 and ≥32 mg/L, respectively) were screened for 16S RMTase genes to determine their occurrence among isolates submitted to a national reference laboratory from December 2003 to December 2015. 16S RMTase genes were identified using two multiplex PCRs, and whole-genome sequencing (WGS) was used to identify other antibiotic resistance genes, sequence types (STs) and the genetic environment of 16S RMTase genes. 16S RMTase genes were found in 8.6% (19/221) of isolates, with rmtB4 (47.4%; 9/19) being most common, followed by rmtD3 (21.1%; 4/19), rmtF2 (15.8%; 3/19) and single isolates harbouring rmtB1, rmtC and rmtD1. Carbapenemase genes were found in 89.5% (17/19) of 16S RMTase-positive isolates, with blaVIM (52.9%; 9/17) being most common. 16S RMTase genes were found in ‘high-risk’ clones known to harbour carbapenemase genes (ST233, ST277, ST357, ST654 and ST773). Analysis of the genetic environment of 16S RMTase genes identified that IS6100 was genetically linked to rmtB1; IS91 to rmtB4, rmtC or rmtD3; ISCR14 to rmtD1; and rmtF2 was linked to Tn3, IS91 or Tn1721. Although 16S RMTase genes explained only 8.6% of pan-aminoglycoside resistance in the P. aeruginosa isolates studied, the association of 16S RMTase genes with carbapenemase-producers and ‘high-risk’ clones highlights that continued surveillance is required to monitor spread as well as the importance of suppressing the emergence of dually-resistant clones in hospital settings.
Myall A, Peach R, Wan Y, et al., 2022, Improved contact tracing using network analysis and spatial-temporal proximity, iMED conference, Publisher: Elsevier, Pages: S20-S20, ISSN: 1201-9712
Imai N, Gaythorpe KAM, Bhatia S, et al., 2022, COVID-19 in Japan: insights from the first three months of the epidemic, Publisher: Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
BackgroundUnderstanding the characteristics and natural history of novel pathogens is crucial to inform successful control measures. Japan was one of the first affected countries in the COVID-19 pandemic reporting their first case on 14 January 2020. Interventions including airport screening, contact tracing, and cluster investigations were quickly implemented. Here we present insights from the first 3 months of the epidemic in Japan based on detailed case data. MethodsWe conducted descriptive analyses based on information systematically extracted from individual case reports from 13 January to 31 March 2020 including patient demographics, date of report and symptom onset, symptom progression, travel history, and contact type. We analysed symptom progression and estimated the time-varying reproduction number, Rt, correcting for epidemic growth using an established Bayesian framework. Key delays and the age-specific probability of transmission were estimated using data on exposures and transmission pairs. ResultsThe corrected fitted mean onset-to-reporting delay after the peak was 4 days (standard deviation: ±2 days). Early transmission was driven primarily by returning travellers with Rt peaking at 2.4 (95%CrI:1.6, 3.3) nationally. In the final week of the trusted period, Rt accounting for importations diverged from overall Rt at 1.1 (95% CrI: 1.0, 1.2) compared to 1.5 (95% CrI: 1.3, 1.6) respectively. Household (39.0%) and workplace (11.6%) exposures were the most frequently reported potential source of infection. The estimated probability of transmission was assortative by age. Across all age groups, cases most frequently onset with cough, fever, and fatigue. There were no reported cases of patients <20 years old developing pneumonia or severe respiratory symptoms.ConclusionsInformation collected in the early phases of an outbreak are important in characterising any novel pathogen. Timely recognition of key symptoms and high-risk settings for transmi
Aliabadi S, Jauneikaite E, Muller-Pebody B, et al., 2022, Exploring temporal trends and risk factors for resistance in <i>Escherichia coli</i>-causing bacteraemia in England between 2013 and 2018: an ecological study, JOURNAL OF ANTIMICROBIAL CHEMOTHERAPY, Vol: 77, Pages: 782-792, ISSN: 0305-7453
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Wan Y, Mills E, Leung RCY, et al., 2021, Alterations in chromosomal genes nfsA, nfsB, and ribE are associated with nitrofurantoin resistance in escherichia coli from the UK, Microbial Genomics, Vol: 7, Pages: 1-19, ISSN: 2057-5858
Antimicrobial resistance in enteric or urinary Escherichia coli is a risk factor for invasive E. coli infections. Due to widespread trimethoprim resistance amongst urinary E. coli and increased bacteraemia incidence, a national recommendation to prescribe nitrofurantoin for uncomplicated urinary tract infection was made in 2014. Nitrofurantoin resistance is reported in <6% urinary E. coli isolates in the UK, however, mechanisms underpinning nitrofurantoin resistance in these isolates remain unknown. This study aimed to identify the genetic basis of nitrofurantoin resistance in urinary E. coli isolates collected from north west London and then elucidate resistance-associated genetic alterations in available UK E. coli genomes. As a result, an algorithm was developed to predict nitrofurantoin susceptibility.Deleterious mutations and gene-inactivating insertion sequences in chromosomal nitroreductase genes nfsA and/or nfsB were identified in genomes of nine nitrofurantoin-resistant urinary E. coli isolates, as well as all further 11 E. coli isolates that were experimentally validated to be nitrofurantoin resistant. Eight categories of allelic changes in nfsA, nfsB, and the associated gene ribE were detected in 12,412 E. coli genomes from the UK. Evolutionary analysis of these three genes revealed homoplasic mutations and explained the previously reported order of stepwise mutations. The mobile gene complex oqxAB, which is associated with reduced nitrofurantoin susceptibility, was identified in only one of the 12,412 genomes.In conclusion, mutations and insertion sequences in nfsA and nfsB were leading causes of nitrofurantoin resistance in UK E. coli. As nitrofurantoin exposure increases in human populations, the prevalence of nitrofurantoin resistance in carriage E. coli isolates and those from urinary and bloodstream infections should be monitored.
Aliabadi S, Anyanwu P, Beech E, et al., 2021, Do antibiotic stewardship interventions in primary care have an effect on antimicrobial resistance of Escherichia coli bacteraemia in England? An ecological analysis of national data between 2013-2018, The Lancet Infectious Diseases, Vol: 21, ISSN: 1473-3099
Background: We sought to evaluate the effectiveness of a national antimicrobial stewardship intervention, the Quality Premium (QP), on broad-spectrum antibiotic prescribing and Escherichia coli bacteraemia resistance to broad-spectrum antibiotics in England. Methods: We used longitudinal data on patients registered with a general practitioner in the English National Health Service and patients with E. coli bacteraemia notified to the national mandatory surveillance programme between January 2013-December 2018.We conducted an ecological analysis using interrupted time series (ITS) analyses and generalised estimating equations (GEE) to estimate the change in broad-spectrum antibiotics prescribing over time and change in the proportion of E. coli bacteraemia cases where the causative bacteria were resistant to each antibiotic individually or to at least one of the five antibiotics, after implementation of the QP. Findings: Following the implementation of the QP in April 2015, we observed an immediate downward step-change in broad-spectrum antibiotic prescribing incidence rate of 0.867per 1000 patients (95% CI: 0.837 to 0.898, p<0·001). We found that the pre-intervention slope for total antibiotic usage was an IRR of 1.002(CI: 1.000to 1.004, p-value=0.046). The change in slope for total antibiotic usage was an IRR of 0.993(CI: 0.991to 0.995, p<0·001). We also observed a downward step-change in resistance rate of 0.947 per 1000 E. coli isolates tested (95% CI: 0.918 to 0.977, p<0·001).We found that the pre-intervention slope for total antibiotic resistance was an IRR of 1.001 (CI: 0.999 to 1.003, p-value=0.346). The change in slope level for total antibiotic usage was an IRR of 0.999 (CI: 0.997 to 1.000, p=0.112). On examination of the long-term effect following implementation of the QP, there was an increase in the number of isolates resistant to at least one of the five broad-spectrum antibiotics tested.134Interpretati
To K-N, Powell O, Jamrozy D, et al., 2021, RAPD PCR detects co-colonisation of multiple Group B Streptococcus genotypes: a practical molecular technique for screening multiple colonies, Journal of Microbiological Methods, Vol: 190, ISSN: 0167-7012
Group B Streptococcus (GBS) is a leading cause of neonatal meningitis, pneumonia, and sepsis. The biggest contributing factor of neonatal infections is due to vertical transmission from maternal colonisation of GBS in the genitourinary tract. Multiple serotype colonisation is often not investigated in epidemiological studies, but it is an important consideration for serotype-based vaccine development and implementation to ensure less abundant serotypes are not under-represented. In this study, we show that RAPD PCR is a quick tool useful in screening the presence of genetically different strains using multiple colony picks from a single patient swab. We observed a maximum of five different GBS strains colonising a single patient at a specific time.
Miglietta L, Moniri A, Pennisi I, et al., 2021, Coupling machine learning and high throughput multiplex digital PCR enables accurate detection of carbapenem-resistant genes in clinical isolates, Frontiers in Molecular Biosciences, Vol: 8, Pages: 1-11, ISSN: 2296-889X
Rapid and accurate identification of patients colonised with carbapenemase-producing organisms (CPOs) is essential to adopt prompt prevention measures to reduce the risk of transmission. Recent studies have demonstrated the ability to combine machine learning (ML) algorithms with real-time digital PCR (dPCR) instruments to increase classification accuracy of multiplex PCR assays when using synthetic DNA templates. We sought to determine if this novel methodology could be applied to improve identification of the five major carbapenem-resistant genes in clinical CPO-isolates, which would represent a leap forward in the use of PCR-based data-driven diagnostics for clinical applications. We collected 3 clinical isolates (including 221 CPO-positive samples) and developed a novel 5-plex PCR assay for detection of blaIMP, blaKPC, blaNDM, blaOXA-48 and blaVIM. Combining the recently reported ML method ‘Amplification and Melting Curve Analysis’ (AMCA) with the abovementioned multiplex assay, we assessed the performance of the AMCA methodology in detecting these genes. The improved classification accuracy of AMCA relies on the usage of real-time data from a single fluorescent channel and benefits from the kinetic/thermodynamic information encoded in the thousands of amplification events produced by high throughput real-time dPCR. The 5-plex showed a lower limit of detection of 10 DNA copies per reaction for each primer set and no cross-reactivity with other carbapenemase genes. The AMCA classifier demonstrated excellentpredictive performance with 99.6% (CI 97.8-99.9%) accuracy (only one misclassified sample out of the 253, with a total of 160,041 positive amplification events), which represents a 7.9% increase (p value < 0.05) compared to conventional melting curve analysis. This work demonstrates the use of the AMCA method to increase the throughput and performance of state-of-the-art molecular diagnostic platforms, without hardware modifications and additiona
Wan Y, Myall AC, Boonyasiri A, et al., 2021, Integrated analysis of patient networks and plasmid genomes reveals a regional, multi-species outbreak of carbapenemase-producing Enterobacterales carrying both<i>bla</i><sub>IMP</sub>and<i>mcr-9</i>genes
<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:sec><jats:title>Background</jats:title><jats:p>Carbapenemase-producing Enterobacterales (CPE) are challenging in the healthcare setting, with resistance to multiple classes of antibiotics and a high associated mortality. The incidence of CPE is rising globally, despite enhanced awareness and control efforts. This study describes an investigation of the emergence of IMP-encoding CPE amongst diverse Enterobacterales species between 2016 and 2019 in patients across a London regional hospital network.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods</jats:title><jats:p>We carried out a network analysis of patient pathways, using electronic health records, to identify contacts between IMP-encoding CPE positive patients. Genomes of IMP-encoding CPE isolates were analysed and overlayed with patient contacts to imply potential transmission events.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results</jats:title><jats:p>Genomic analysis of 84 Enterobacterales isolates revealed diverse species (predominantly<jats:italic>Klebsiella</jats:italic>spp,<jats:italic>Enterobacter</jats:italic>spp,<jats:italic>E. coli</jats:italic>), of which 86% (72/84) harboured an IncHI2 plasmid, which carried both<jats:italic>bla</jats:italic><jats:sub>IMP</jats:sub>and the mobile colistin resistance gene<jats:italic>mcr-9</jats:italic>(68/72). Phylogenetic analysis of IncHI2 plasmids identified three lineages which showed significant association with patient contact and movements between four hospital sites and across medical specialities, which had been missed on initial investigations.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusions</jats:title><jats:p>Combined, our patient network and plasmid analyses demonstrate an interspecies, plasmid-med
Jauneikaite E, Pichon B, Mosavie M, et al., 2021, Staphylococcus argenteus transmission among healthy Royal Marines: a molecular epidemiology case-study, Journal of Infection, Vol: 83, ISSN: 0163-4453
Objectives: During a prospective study of S. aureus carriage in Royal Marines recruits, six S. argenteus strains were identified in four recruits. As S. argenteus sepsis leads to mortality similar to S. aureus, we determined the potential for within same troop transmission, to evaluate future outbreak risk.Methods: We used whole-genome sequencing to characterise S. argenteus and investigate phylogenetic relationships between isolates.Results: S. argenteus strains (t5078, ST2250) were detected in 4/40 recruits in the same troop (training cohort) in weeks 1, 6 or 15 of training. No mec, tsst or LukPV genes were detected. We identified differences of 1-17 core SNPs between S. argenteus from different recruits. In two recruits, two S. argenteus strains were isolated; these could be distinguished by 2 and 15 core SNPs.Conclusions: The identification of S. argenteus within a single troop from the total recruit population suggests a common source for transmission, though high number of SNPs were identified, both within-host and within-cluster. The high number of SNPs between some isolates may indicate a common source of diverse isolates or a high level of S. argenteus mutation in carriage. S. argenteus is newly recognised species; and understanding of the frequency of genetic changes during transmission and transition from asymptomatic carriage to disease is required.
Bhatia S, Parag K, Wardle J, et al., 2021, Global predictions of short- to medium-term COVID-19 transmission trends : a retrospective assessment
<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title> <jats:p>From 8th March to 29th November 2020, we produced weekly estimates of SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility and forecasts of deaths due to COVID-19 for 81 countries with evidence of sustained transmission. We also developed a novel heuristic to combine weekly estimates of transmissibility to produce forecasts over a 4-week horizon. We evaluated the robustness of the forecasts using relative error, coverage probability, and comparisons with null models. During the 39-week period covered by this study, both the short- and medium-term forecasts captured well the epidemic trajectory across different waves of COVID-19 infections with small relative errors over the forecast horizon. The model was well calibrated with 56.3\% and 45.6\% of the observations lying in the 50\% Credible Interval in 1-week and 4-week ahead forecasts respectively. We could accurately characterise the overall phase of the epidemic up to 4-weeks ahead in 84.9\% of country-days. The medium-term forecasts can be used in conjunction with the short-term forecasts of COVID-19 mortality as a useful planning tool as countries continue to relax public health measures.</jats:p>
Aliabadi S, Anyanwu P, Beech E, et al., 2021, Effect of antibiotic stewardship interventions in primary care on antimicrobial resistance of Escherichia coli bacteraemia in England (2013-18): a quasi-experimental, ecological, data linkage study, Lancet Infectious Diseases, Vol: 21, ISSN: 1473-3099
BACKGROUND: Antimicrobial resistance is a major global health concern, driven by overuse of antibiotics. We aimed to assess the effectiveness of a national antimicrobial stewardship intervention, the National Health Service (NHS) England Quality Premium implemented in 2015-16, on broad-spectrum antibiotic prescribing and Escherichia coli bacteraemia resistance to broad-spectrum antibiotics in England. METHODS: In this quasi-experimental, ecological, data linkage study, we used longitudinal data on bacteraemia for patients registered with a general practitioner in the English National Health Service and patients with E coli bacteraemia notified to the national mandatory surveillance programme between Jan 1, 2013, and Dec 31, 2018. We linked these data to data on antimicrobial susceptibility testing of E coli from Public Health England's Second-Generation Surveillance System. We did an ecological analysis using interrupted time-series analyses and generalised estimating equations to estimate the change in broad-spectrum antibiotics prescribing over time and the change in the proportion of E coli bacteraemia cases for which the causative bacteria were resistant to each antibiotic individually or to at least one of five broad-spectrum antibiotics (co-amoxiclav, ciprofloxacin, levofloxacin, moxifloxacin, ofloxacin), after implementation of the NHS England Quality Premium intervention in April, 2015. FINDINGS: Before implementation of the Quality Premium, the rate of antibiotic prescribing for all five broad-spectrum antibiotics was increasing at rate of 0·2% per month (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 1·002 [95% CI 1·000-1·004], p=0·046). After implementation of the Quality Premium, an immediate reduction in total broad-spectrum antibiotic prescribing rate was observed (IRR 0·867 [95% CI 0·837-0·898], p<0·0001). This effect was sustained until the end of the study period; a 57% reduction in rate of antibiotic pr
Knock ES, Whittles LK, Lees JA, et al., 2021, Key epidemiological drivers and impact of interventions in the 2020 SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in England, Science Translational Medicine, Vol: 13, Pages: 1-12, ISSN: 1946-6234
We fitted a model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in care homes and the community to regional surveillance data for England. Compared with other approaches, our model provides a synthesis of multiple surveillance data streams into a single coherent modelling framework allowing transmission and severity to be disentangled from features of the surveillance system. Of the control measures implemented, only national lockdown brought the reproduction number (Rteff ) below 1 consistently; if introduced one week earlier it could have reduced deaths in the first wave from an estimated 48,600 to 25,600 (95% credible interval [95%CrI]: 15,900-38,400). The infection fatality ratio decreased from 1.00% (95%CrI: 0.85%-1.21%) to 0.79% (95%CrI: 0.63%-0.99%), suggesting improved clinical care. The infection fatality ratio was higher in the elderly residing in care homes (23.3%, 95%CrI: 14.7%-35.2%) than those residing in the community (7.9%, 95%CrI: 5.9%-10.3%). On 2nd December 2020 England was still far from herd immunity, with regional cumulative infection incidence between 7.6% (95%CrI: 5.4%-10.2%) and 22.3% (95%CrI: 19.4%-25.4%) of the population. Therefore, any vaccination campaign will need to achieve high coverage and a high degree of protection in vaccinated individuals to allow non-pharmaceutical interventions to be lifted without a resurgence of transmission.
Gaythorpe K, Bhatia S, Mangal T, et al., 2021, Children’s role in the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic review of early surveillance data on susceptibility, severity, and transmissibility, Scientific Reports, Vol: 11, Pages: 1-14, ISSN: 2045-2322
Background: SARS-CoV-2 infections have been reported in all age groups including infants, children, and adolescents. However, the role of children in the COVID-19 pandemic is still uncertain. This systematic review of early studies synthesises evidence on the susceptibility of children to SARS-CoV-2 infection, the severity and clinical outcomes in children with SARS-CoV-2 infection, and the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 by children in the early phases of the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods and findings: A systematic literature review was conducted in PubMed. Reviewers extracted data from relevant, peer-reviewed studies published up to July 4th 2020 during the first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak using a standardised form and assessed quality using the NIH Quality Assessment Tool for Observational Cohort and Cross-Sectional Studies. For studies included in the meta-analysis, we used a random effects model to calculate pooled estimates of the proportion of children considered asymptomatic or in a severe or critical state. We identified 2,775 potential studies of which 128 studies met our inclusion criteria; data were extracted from 99, which were then quality assessed. Finally, 29 studies were considered for the meta-analysis that included information of symptoms and/or severity, these were further assessed based on patient recruitment. Our pooled estimate of the proportion of test positive children who were asymptomatic was 21.1% (95% CI: 14.0 - 28.1%), based on 13 included studies, and the proportion of children with severe or critical symptoms was 3.8% (95% CI: 1.5 - 6.0%), based on 14 included studies. We did not identify any studies designed to assess transmissibility in children and found that susceptibility to infection in children was highly variable across studies.Conclusions: Children’s susceptibility to infection and onward transmissibility relative to adults is still unclear and varied widely between studies. However, it is evident that most children e
Jauneikaite E, Pichon B, Mosavie M, et al., 2021, Characterisation of <i>Staphylococcus argenteus</i> carried by healthy Royal Marines: a molecular epidemiology case-study
<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:sec><jats:title>Objectives</jats:title><jats:p>During a prospective study of <jats:italic>S. aureus</jats:italic> carriage in Royal Marines (RM) recruits, six <jats:italic>S. argenteus</jats:italic> strains were identified in four recruits undertaking military training together. As <jats:italic>S. argenteus</jats:italic> sepsis leads to mortality similar to <jats:italic>S. aureus</jats:italic>, we determined the potential for person-to-person transmission, to evaluate future outbreak risk.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Methods</jats:title><jats:p>We used whole-genome sequencing to characterise <jats:italic>S. argenteus</jats:italic> and investigate phylogenetic relationships between isolates. Participant colonisation with <jats:italic>S. aureus</jats:italic> and skin and soft tissue infection acquisition were recorded.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Results</jats:title><jats:p>All six <jats:italic>S. argenteus</jats:italic> strains were <jats:italic>spa</jats:italic>-type t5078, ST2250. Strains were detected in 4/40 recruits in the same troop (training cohort) in weeks 1, 6 or 15 of training. No <jats:italic>mec, tsst</jats:italic> or <jats:italic>LukPV</jats:italic> genes were detected. We identified differences of 10-35 core SNPs between <jats:italic>S. argenteus</jats:italic> from different recruits. In two recruits, two <jats:italic>S. argenteus</jats:italic> strains were isolated; these could be distinguished by 3 and 15 core SNPs in each case. <jats:italic>S. argenteus</jats:italic> was not identified in any one of the other 21 participating troops (1,012 recruits).</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec><jats:title>Conclusions&
Wan Y, Mills E, Leung RCY, et al., 2021, Diverse Genetic Determinants of Nitrofurantoin Resistance in UK <i>Escherichia coli</i>
<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>Antimicrobial resistance in enteric or urinary <jats:italic>Escherichia coli</jats:italic> is a risk factor for invasive <jats:italic>E. coli</jats:italic> infections. Due to widespread trimethoprim resistance amongst urinary <jats:italic>E. coli</jats:italic> and increased bacteraemia incidence, a national recommendation to prescribe nitrofurantoin for uncomplicated urinary tract infection was made in 2018. Nitrofurantoin resistance is reported in <6% urinary <jats:italic>E. coli</jats:italic> isolates in the UK. However, mechanisms underpinning nitrofurantoin resistance in these isolates remain unknown. This study aimed to identify genetic determinants of nitrofurantoin resistance in a local <jats:italic>E. coli</jats:italic> collection and assess their prevalence in a larger dataset of <jats:italic>E. coli</jats:italic> genomes. Deleterious point mutations and gene-inactivating insertion sequences in both chromosomal nitroreductase genes <jats:italic>nfsA</jats:italic> and <jats:italic>nfsB</jats:italic> were identified in genomes of nine nitrofurantoin-resistant urinary <jats:italic>E. coli</jats:italic> isolates collected from north west London. Eight types of genetic alterations were identified when comparing sequences of <jats:italic>nfsA</jats:italic>, <jats:italic>nfsB</jats:italic>, and the associated gene <jats:italic>ribE</jats:italic> in 12,412 <jats:italic>E. coli</jats:italic> genomes collected from across the UK. Evolutionary analysis revealed homoplasic mutations and explained the order of stepwise mutations. An algorithm was developed to predict nitrofurantoin susceptibility and predictions for 20 accessible isolates were experimentally validated. Only one genome carrying <jats:italic>oqxAB</jats:italic>, a mobile gene
Collin SM, Groves N, O' Sullivan C, et al., 2021, Uncovering infant group B streptococcal (GBS) disease clusters in the UK and Ireland through genomic analysis: a population-based epidemiological study, Clinical Infectious Diseases, Vol: 72, Pages: e296-e302, ISSN: 1058-4838
BackgroundThe true frequency of hospital outbreaks of invasive group B streptococcal (iGBS; Streptococcus agalactiae) disease in infants is unknown. We used whole genome sequencing (WGS) of iGBS isolates collected during a period of enhanced surveillance of infant iGBS disease in the UK and Ireland to determine the number of clustered cases.MethodsPotentially linked iGBS cases from infants with early (<7 days of life) or late-onset (7–89 days) disease were identified from WGS data (HiSeq 2500 platform, Illumina) from clinical sterile site isolates collected between 04/2014 and 04/2015. We assessed time and place of cases to determine a single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) difference threshold for clustered cases. Case details were augmented through linkage to national hospital admission data and hospital record review by local microbiologists.ResultsAnalysis of sequences indicated a cutoff of ≤5 SNP differences to define iGBS clusters. Among 410 infant iGBS isolates, we identified 7 clusters (4 genetically identical pairs with 0 SNP differences, 1 pair with 3 SNP differences, 1 cluster of 4 cases with ≤1 SNP differences) of which 4 clusters were uncovered for the first time. The clusters comprised 16 cases, of which 15 were late-onset (of 192 late-onset cases with sequenced isolates) and 1 an early-onset index case. Serial intervals between cases ranged from 0 to 59 (median 12) days.ConclusionsApproximately 1 in 12 late-onset infant iGBS cases were part of a hospital cluster. Over half of the clusters were previously undetected, emphasizing the importance of routine submission of iGBS isolates to reference laboratories for cluster identification and genomic confirmation.
Watson O, Alhaffar M, Mehchy Z, et al., 2021, Leveraging community mortality indicators to infer COVID-19 mortality and transmission dynamics in Damascus, Syria, Nature Communications, Vol: 12, Pages: 1-10, ISSN: 2041-1723
The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in substantial mortality worldwide. However, to date, countries in the Middle East and Africa have reported considerably lower mortality rates than in Europe and the Americas. Motivated by reports of an overwhelmed health system, we estimate the likely under-ascertainment of COVID-19 mortality in Damascus, Syria. Using all-cause mortality data, we fit a mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission to reported mortality, estimating that 1.25% of COVID-19 deaths (sensitivity range 1.00% – 3.00%) have been reported as of 2 September 2020. By 2 September, we estimate that 4,380 (95% CI: 3,250 – 5,550) COVID-19 deaths in Damascus may have been missed, with 39.0% (95% CI: 32.5% – 45.0%) of the population in Damascus estimated to have been infected. Accounting for under-ascertainment corroborates reports of exceeded hospital bed capacity and is validated by community-uploaded obituary notifications, which confirm extensive unreported mortality in Damascus.
Miglietta L, Moniri A, Pennisi I, et al., 2021, Coupling machine learning and high throughput multiplex digital PCR enables accurate detection of carbapenem-resistant genes in clinical isolates, Publisher: Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
<jats:p>Background: The emergence and spread of carbapenemase-producing organisms (CPO) are a significant clinical and public health concern. Rapid and accurate identification of patients colonised with CPO is essential to adopt prompt prevention measures in order to reduce the risk of transmission. Recent proof-of-concept studies have demonstrated the ability to combine machine learning (ML) algorithms with real-time digital PCR (dPCR) instruments to increase classification accuracy of multiplex assays. From this, we sought to determine if this ML based methodology could accurately identify five major carbapenem-resistant genes in clinical CPO-isolates.Methods: We collected 253 clinical isolates (including 221 CPO-positive samples) and developed a novel 5-plex assay for detection of blaVIM, blaOXA-48, blaNDM, blaIMP and blaKPC. Combining the recently reported ML method "Amplification and Melting Curve Analysis" (AMCA) with the abovementioned multiplex assay, we assessed the performance of the methodology in detecting these five carbapenem-resistant genes. The classification accuracy relies on the usage of real-time data from a single fluorescent channel and benefits from the kinetic and thermodynamic information encoded in the thousands of amplification events produced by high throughput dPCR.Results: The 5-plex showed a lower limit of detection of 100 DNA copies per reaction for each primer set and no cross-reactivity with other carbapenemase genes. The AMCA classifier demonstrated excellent predictive performance with 99.6% (CI 97.8-99.9%) accuracy (only one misclassified sample out of the 253, with a total of 163,966 positive amplification events), which represents a 7.9% increase compared to the conventional ML-based melting curve analysis (MCA) method.Conclusion: This work demonstrates the utility of the AMCA method to increase the throughput and performance of state-of-the-art molecular diagnostic platforms, reducing costs without any changes
Ragonnet-Cronin M, Boyd O, Geidelberg L, et al., 2021, Genetic evidence for the association between COVID-19 epidemic severity and timing of non-pharmaceutical interventions, Nature Communications, Vol: 12, Pages: 1-7, ISSN: 2041-1723
Unprecedented public health interventions including travel restrictions and national lockdowns have been implemented to stem the COVID-19 epidemic, but the effectiveness of non- pharmaceutical interventions is still debated. We carried out a phylogenetic analysis of more than 29,000 publicly available whole genome SARS-CoV-2 sequences from 57 locations to estimate the time that the epidemic originated in different places. These estimates were examined in relation to the dates of the most stringent interventions in each location as well as to the number of cumulative COVID-19 deaths and phylodynamic estimates of epidemic size. Here we report that the time elapsed between epidemic origin and maximum intervention is associated with different measures of epidemic severity and explains 11% of the variance in reported deaths one month after the most stringent intervention. Locations where strong non-pharmaceutical interventions were implemented earlier experienced 30 much less severe COVID-19 morbidity and mortality during the period of study.
Myall A, Peach RL, Wan Y, et al., 2021, Characterising contact in disease outbreaks via a network model of spatial-temporal proximity
<jats:title>ABSTRACT</jats:title><jats:p>Contact tracing is a key tool in epidemiology to identify and control outbreaks of infectious diseases. Existing contact tracing methodologies produce contact maps of individuals based on a binary definition of contact which can be hampered by missing data and indirect contacts. Here, we present a Spatial-temporal Epidemiological Proximity (StEP) model to recover contact maps in disease outbreaks based on movement data. The StEP model accounts for imperfect data by considering probabilistic contacts between individuals based on spatial-temporal proximity of their movement trajectories, creating a robust movement network despite possible missing data and unseen transmission routes. Using real-world data we showcase the potential of StEP for contact tracing with outbreaks of multidrug-resistant bacteria and COVID-19 in a large hospital group in London, UK. In addition to the core structure of contacts that can be recovered using traditional methods of contact tracing, the StEP model reveals missing contacts that connect seemingly separate outbreaks. Comparison with genomic data further confirmed that these recovered contacts indeed improve characterisation of disease transmission and so highlights how the StEP framework can inform effective strategies of infection control and prevention.</jats:p>
Pi L, Expert P, Clarke JM, et al., 2021, Electronic health record enabled track and trace in an urban hospital network: implications for infection prevention and control
<jats:title>ABSTRACT</jats:title><jats:p>Healthcare-associated infections represent one of the most significant challenges for modern medicine as they can significantly impact patients’lives. Carbapenemase-producing Enterobacteriaceae (CPE) pose the greatest clinical threat, given the high levels of resistance to carbapenems, which are considered as agents of ‘last resort’ against life-threatening infections. Understanding patterns of CPE infection spreading in hospitals is paramount to design effective infection control protocols to mitigate the presence of CPE in hospitals. We used patient electronic health records from three urban hospitals to: i) track microbiologically confirmed carbapenemase producing<jats:italic>Escherichia coli</jats:italic>(CP-Ec) carriers and ii) trace the patients they shared place and time with until their identification. We show that yearly contact networks in each hospital consistently exhibit a core-periphery structure, highlighting the presence of a core set of wards where most carrier-contact interactions occured before being distributed to peripheral wards. We also identified functional communities of wards from the general patient movement network. The contact networks projected onto the general patient movement community structure showed a comprehensive coverage of the hospital. Our findings highlight that infections such as CP-Ec infections can reach virtually all parts of hospitals through first-level contacts.</jats:p>
Boonyasiri A, Jauneikaite E, Brinkac LM, et al., 2021, Genomic and clinical characterisation of multidrug-resistant carbapenemase-producing ST231 and ST16 Klebsiella pneumoniae isolates colonising patients at Siriraj hospital, Bangkok, Thailand from 2015 to 2017., BMC Infectious Diseases, Vol: 21, Pages: 1-11, ISSN: 1471-2334
BACKGROUND: Infections caused by carbapenemase-producing Enterobacteriaceae (CPE) have continually grown as a global public health threat, with significant mortality rates observed across the world. We examined the clinical data from patients with CPE infections and their outcomes, concentrating on Klebsiella pneumoniae isolates. We analysed the clinical information, performed antimicrobial susceptibility testing, and conducted molecular epidemiological and genomic analyses on the isolates to identify patterns in the data. METHODS: The clinical characteristics of 33 hospitalised patients with confirmed CPE, including patient-related factors associated with the development of CPE infections, were examined. Patients were divided according to whether they were "colonised" or "infected" with CPE and by the timing and frequency of their rectal swab collections, from which 45 swabs were randomly selected for analysis. CPE isolates were purified, and antimicrobial susceptibility tests performed. Whole genome sequences of these isolates were determined and analysed to compute bacterial multilocus sequence types and plasmid replicon types, infer phylogenetic relationships, and identify antimicrobial resistance and virulence genes. RESULTS: Altogether, 88.9% (40/45) of the CPE isolates were K. pneumoniae. The most abundant carbapenemase gene family in the K. pneumoniae isolates (33/39) was blaOXA-232, with blaNDM-1 additionally identified in 19 of them. All CPE isolates carrying either blaOXA-232 or blaNDM-1 were resistant to meropenem, but only 40 from 45 were susceptible to colistin. Among the CPE-infected patients (n = 18) and CPE-colonised patients who developed CPE infections during the study (n = 3), all but one received standard colistin-based combination therapy. Phylogenetic analysis revealed the polyclonal spread of carbapenemase-producing K. pneumoniae (CPKP) within the patient population, with the following two major
Knock E, Whittles L, Lees J, et al., 2020, Report 41: The 2020 SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in England: key epidemiological drivers and impact of interventions
England has been severely affected by COVID-19. We fitted a model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in care homes and the community to regional 2020 surveillance data. Only national lockdown brought the reproduction number below 1 consistently; introduced one week earlier in the first wave it could have reduced mortality by 23,300 deaths on average. The mean infection fatality ratio was initially ~1.3% across all regions except London and halved following clinical care improvements. The infection fatality ratio was two-fold lower throughout in London, even when adjusting for demographics. The infection fatality ratio in care homes was 2.5-times that in the elderly in the community. Population-level infection-induced immunity in England is still far from herd immunity, with regional mean cumulative attack rates ranging between 4.4% and 15.8%.
Boonyasiri A, Jauneikaite E, Brinkac LM, et al., 2020, Genomic epidemiology of carbapenemase-producing Enterobacteriaceae in hospitalised patients in Bangkok, Thailand from 2015 to 2017, Publisher: ELSEVIER SCI LTD, Pages: 28-29, ISSN: 1201-9712
Gaythorpe K, Bhatia S, Mangal T, et al., 2020, Report 37: Children’s role in the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic review of early surveillance data on susceptibility, severity, and transmissibility
SARS-CoV-2 infections have been reported in all age groups including infants, children, and adolescents. However, the role of children in the COVID-19 pandemic is still uncertain. This systematic review of early studies synthesises evidence on the susceptibility of children to SARS-CoV-2 infection, the severity and clinical outcomes in children with SARS-CoV-2 infection, and the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 by children. A systematic literature review was conducted in PubMed. Reviewers extracted data from relevant, peer-reviewed studies published during the first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak using a standardised form and assessed quality using the NIH Quality Assessment Tool for Observational Cohort and Cross-Sectional Studies. For studies included in the meta-analysis, we used a random effects model to calculate pooled estimates of the proportion of children considered asymptomatic or in a severe or critical state. We identified 2,775 potential studies of which 128 studies met our inclusion criteria; data were extracted from 99, which were then quality assessed. Finally, 29 studies were considered for the meta-analysis that included information of symptoms and/or severity, these were further assessed based on patient recruitment. Our pooled estimate of the proportion of test positive children who were asymptomatic was 21.1% (95% CI: 14.0 - 28.1%), based on 13 included studies, and the proportion of children with severe or critical symptoms was 3.8% (95% CI: 1.5 - 6.0%), based on 14 included studies. We did not identify any studies designed to assess transmissibility in children and found that susceptibility to infection in children was highly variable across studies.Children’s susceptibility to infection and onward transmissibility relative to adults is still unclear and varied widely between studies. However, it is evident that most children experience clinically mild disease or remain asymptomatically infected. More comprehensive contact-tracing studie
Ellington MJ, Davies F, Jauneikaite E, et al., 2020, A multi-species cluster of GES-5 carbapenemase producing Enterobacterales linked by a geographically disseminated plasmid, Clinical Infectious Diseases, Vol: 71, Pages: 2553-2560, ISSN: 1058-4838
BACKGROUND: Early and accurate treatment of infections due to carbapenem-resistant organisms is facilitated by rapid diagnostics but rare resistance mechanisms can compromise detection. One year after a GES-5 carbapenemase-positive Klebsiella oxytoca infection was identified by whole genome sequencing (WGS) (later found to be part of a cluster of three cases), a cluster of 11 patients with GES-5-positive K. oxytoca was identified over 18 weeks in the same hospital.METHODS: Bacteria were identified by MALDI-TOF, antimicrobial susceptibility testing followed EUCAST guidelines. Ertapenem-resistant isolates were referred to Public Health England for characterization using PCR detection of GES, pulse-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) and WGS for the second cluster.RESULTS: The identification of the first GES-5 K. oxytoca isolate was delayed, being identified on WGS. A GES-gene PCR informed the occurrence of the second cluster in real-time. In contrast to PFGE, WGS phylogenetic analysis refuted an epidemiological link between the two clusters; it also suggested a cascade of patient-to-patient transmission in the later cluster. A novel GES-5-encoding plasmid was present in K. oxytoca,E. coli and E. cloacae isolates from unlinked patients within the same hospital group and in human and wastewater isolates from three hospitals elsewhere in the UK.CONCLUSIONS: Genomic sequencing revolutionized the epidemiological understanding of the clusters, it also underlined the risk of covert plasmid propagation in healthcare settings and revealed the national distribution of the resistance-encoding plasmid. Sequencing results also informed and led to the ongoing use of enhanced diagnostic tests for detecting carbapenemases locally and nationally.
Bianchi-Jassir F, Paul P, To K-N, et al., 2020, Systematic review of Group B Streptococcal capsular types, sequence types and surface proteins as potential vaccine candidates., Vaccine, Vol: 38, Pages: 6682-6694, ISSN: 0264-410X
BACKGROUND: 21 million pregnant women worldwide (18%) are estimated to carry Group B Streptococcus (GBS), which is a risk for invasive disease in newborns, pregnant women, and stillbirths. Adults ≥ 60 years or with underlying health conditions are also vulnerable to invasive GBS disease. We undertook systematic reviews on GBS organism characteristics including: capsular polysaccharide (serotype), sequence type (multi-locus sequence types (MLST)), and virulence proteins. We synthesised data by at-risk populations, to inform vaccine development. METHODS: We conducted systematic reviews and meta-analyses to estimate proportions of GBS serotypes for at risk populations: maternal colonisation, invasive disease in pregnant women, stillbirths, infants 0-90 days age, and older adults (≥60 years). We considered regional variation and time trends (2001-2018). For these at-risk population groups, we summarised reported MLST and surface proteins. RESULTS: Based on 198 studies (29247isolates), 93-99% of GBS isolates were serotypes Ia, Ib, II, III, IV and V. Regional variation is likely, but data gaps are apparent, even for maternal colonisation which has most data. Serotype III dominates for infant invasive disease (60%) and GBS-associated stillbirths (41%). ST17 accounted for a high proportion of infant invasive disease (41%; 95%CI: 35-47) and was found almost exclusively in serotype III strains, less present in maternal colonisation (9%; 95%CI:6-13),(4%; 95%CI:0-11) infant colonisation, and adult invasive disease (4%, 95%CI:2-6). Percentages of strains with at least one of alp 1, alp2/3, alpha C or Rib surface protein targets were 87% of maternal colonisation, 97% infant colonisation, 93% infant disease and 99% adult invasive disease. At least one of three pilus islands proteins were reported in all strains. DISCUSSION: A hexavalent vaccine (serotypes Ia, Ib, II, III, IV and V) might provide comprehensive cover for all at-risk populations. Survei
Hogan A, Winskill P, Watson O, et al., 2020, Report 33: Modelling the allocation and impact of a COVID-19 vaccine
Several SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidates are now in late-stage trials, with efficacy and safety results expected by the end of 2020. Even under optimistic scenarios for manufacture and delivery, the doses available in 2021 are likely to be limited. Here we identify optimal vaccine allocation strategies within and between countries to maximise health (avert deaths) under constraints on dose supply. We extended an existing mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission across different country settings to model the public health impact of potential vaccines, using a range of target product profiles developed by the World Health Organization. We show that as supply increases, vaccines that reduce or block infection – and thus transmission – in addition to preventing disease have a greater impact than those that prevent disease alone, due to the indirect protection provided to high-risk groups. We further demonstrate that the health impact of vaccination will depend on the cumulative infection incidence in the population when vaccination begins, the duration of any naturally acquired immunity, the likely trajectory of the epidemic in 2021 and the level of healthcare available to effectively treat those with disease. Within a country, we find that for a limited supply (doses for <20% of the population) the optimal strategy is to target the elderly and other high-risk groups. However, if a larger supply is available, the optimal strategy switches to targeting key transmitters (i.e. the working age population and potentially children) to indirectly protect the elderly and vulnerable. Given the likely global dose supply in 2021 (2 billion doses with a two-dose vaccine), we find that a strategy in which doses are allocated to countries in proportion to their population size is close to optimal in averting deaths. Such a strategy also aligns with the ethical principles agreed in pandemic preparedness planning.
Monod M, Blenkinsop A, Xi X, et al., 2020, Report 32: Targeting interventions to age groups that sustain COVID-19 transmission in the United States, Pages: 1-32
Following inial declines, in mid 2020, a resurgence in transmission of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has occurred in the United States and parts of Europe. Despite the wide implementaon of non-pharmaceucal inter-venons, it is sll not known how they are impacted by changing contact paerns, age and other demographics. As COVID-19 disease control becomes more localised, understanding the age demographics driving transmission and how these impact the loosening of intervenons such as school reopening is crucial. Considering dynamics for the United States, we analyse aggregated, age-specific mobility trends from more than 10 million individuals and link these mechaniscally to age-specific COVID-19 mortality data. In contrast to previous approaches, we link mobility to mortality via age specific contact paerns and use this rich relaonship to reconstruct accurate trans-mission dynamics. Contrary to anecdotal evidence, we find lile support for age-shis in contact and transmission dynamics over me. We esmate that, unl August, 63.4% [60.9%-65.5%] of SARS-CoV-2 infecons in the United States originated from adults aged 20-49, while 1.2% [0.8%-1.8%] originated from children aged 0-9. In areas with connued, community-wide transmission, our transmission model predicts that re-opening kindergartens and el-ementary schools could facilitate spread and lead to considerable excess COVID-19 aributable deaths over a 90-day period. These findings indicate that targeng intervenons to adults aged 20-49 are an important con-sideraon in halng resurgent epidemics, and prevenng COVID-19-aributable deaths when kindergartens and elementary schools reopen.
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