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• Journal article
  Yang Q, Tong S, Tong Z, Wang H, Cao XEet al., 2024,

  Ash fouling characteristic analysis and prediction for pillow plate heat exchanger in waste heat recovery based on attentive-feature decision algorithm

  , Fuel, Vol: 372, ISSN: 0016-2361

  Ash fouling on heat exchanger surfaces in waste heat recovery and utilization is an inevitable result of solid fuel combustion and particle deposition, affecting the efficiency, availability and operating cost of an energy utilization system. Fouling prediction plays a critical role in reasonable design and efficient operation of heat exchangers. However, credible monitoring and accurate prognostic towards fouling condition always remain a challenge, largely due to the complex flue gas component and abominable service environment of heat exchangers. In this paper, a novel ash fouling prediction method combined with Effective Particle Size Filtering and Multistep Attentive-Feature Decision algorithm (EF-MAFD) for Pillow Plate Heat Exchanger (PPHE) is proposed. First, a numerical fouling model with Discrete Phase Model (DPM) combined particle deposition and removal model is developed. Validation work is conducted on Nusselt number, pressure drop coefficient and normal restitution coefficient with existing experimental data. The effect of geometrical configuration of PPHE and condition on the fouling characteristic is then evaluated with this model. Next, the EF-MAFD ash fouling prediction model is established, in which the initial particle size distribution is transformed into an effective diameter innovatively and two indicators evaluating the fouling state, namely critical fouling resistance and critical fouling time are defined and predicted. The results indicate that fouling mainly occurs downstream of the welding spots and shows an asymptotic growing trend over time. PPHE with smaller diameter of welding spot, channel height and pitch ratio possess anti-fouling potential. In comparison to existing methods, the newly developed EF-MAFD method has the capacity to deal effectively with the complex particle distribution and provides the most satisfying prediction ability with coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.93 and mean absolute prediction

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  • Citations: 12
• Report
  Becker M, 2024,

  Addressing the Scope 3 Challenge - a workshop briefing from researchers working on corporate climate action and governance

  The Grantham Institute for Climate Change at the Environment teamed up with Oxford Net Zero to convene a set of workshops bringing together academics and other experts to discuss issues related to the assessment and mitigation of scope 3 emissions. This briefing sets out the themes arising from workshop discussions on how standard setting bodies such as SBTi might approach scope 3.

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• Report
  Zachariah M, Fioravanti G, Acosta Navarro JC, Kimutai J, Dosio A, Pasotti L, Vahlberg M, Marghidan CP, Otto F, Clarke B, Philip S, Nalato E, Massucchielli LS, Taccardi B, Singh Ret al., 2024,

  Climate change key driver of extreme drought in water scarce Sicily and Sardinia

  , Publisher: Centre for Environmental Policy
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• Journal article
  Boran I, Pettorelli N, Koberle AC, Borges RA, De Palma A, Delgado D, Deneault A, Deprez A, Imbach P, Jennings NR, Salzmann AM, Widerberg O, Chan Set al., 2024,

  Making Global Climate Action work for nature and people: Priorities for Race to Zero and Race to Resilience

  , ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & POLICY, Vol: 159, ISSN: 1462-9011
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• Journal article
  Lau KH, Toumi R, 2024,

  On the spirality of the asymmetric rain field of tropical cyclones under vertical wind shear

  , Geophysical Research Letters, Vol: 51, ISSN: 0094-8276

  The downshear-left enhancement of tropical cyclone rainfall has been demonstrated previously, but the radial dependence of this effect was not analyzed in detail. This study quantifies the progressive upwind shift of the wavenumber-1 maximum rain position with radius relative to the vertical wind shear direction. This shift is visualized as a distinctive upwind spiral of the maximum. It is shown that this spiral pattern is generally observed across various storm intensities, shear strength, and ocean basins. Detailed examination revealed that the maximum downwind deflection angle of the wavenumber-1 rain maximum relative to the shear direction is smaller for tropical storms than hurricanes, but insensitive to hurricane intensity. It is proposed that the spirality is produced by a continuous decline in angular advection of air parcels with radius. The stability of the deflection angle in hurricanes may be accounted for by a corresponding increase in vertical ascent under strengthening angular flow.

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• Report
  Clarke B, Zachariah M, Barnes C, Sparks N, Toumi R, Yang W, Vahlberg M, Lagmay AM, Ybañez R, Delmendo PA, Malaiba C, Vrkic D, Otto F, Basconcillo J, Kimutai J, Philip S, Blomendaal N, Singh R, Arrighi J, Rodriguez LC, Rances Aet al., 2024,

  Climate change increased Typhoon Gaemi's wind speeds and rainfall, with devastating impacts across the western Pacific region

  , Publisher: Centre for Environmental Policy
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• Report
  Zachariah M, T CS R D T A, Barnes C, AchutaRao K, Mondal A, Saharia M, Vahlberg M, Otto F, Kimutai J, Clarke B, Kew S, Singh R, Sengupta S, Arrighi J, Pereira Marghidan C, Rodriguez LCet al., 2024,

  Landslide-triggering rainfall made more intense by human-induced climate change, devastating highly vulnerable communities in northern Kerala

  , Publisher: Centre for Environmental Policy
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• Report
  Barnes C, Santos FLM, Libonati R, Keeping T, Rodrigues R, Alves LM, Sivanu S, Vahlberg M, Alcayna T, Otto F, Zachariah M, Singh R, Mugge M, Biehl J, Petryna A, Dias M, Reis E, Uzquiano Set al., 2024,

  Hot, dry and windy conditions that drove devastating Pantanal wildfires 40% more intense due to climate change

  , Publisher: Centre for Environmental Policy
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• Journal article
  Xu Y, Dang C, Cao XE, Cao Y, Huang J, Xu Y, Shan M, Liu R, Li P, Xu G, Zhu Met al., 2024,

  Artificial phytoremediation solar interface evaporator for efficient heavy metal salt separation and saline soil remediation

  , Journal of Environmental Chemical Engineering, Vol: 12

  Solar-driven interfacial evaporation is an efficient, green, and low-carbon footprint way to separate heavy metals from contaminated soil. A biomimetic mushroom-like evaporator based on polypyrrole-modified cotton fabric is designed, which uses the mechanism of evaporative diffusion and gravity to drive the separation of heavy metal salt crystals, achieving sustainable remediation heavy metal contaminated soil (HMCS). This stereo biomimetic evaporator not only achieves excellent evaporation performance under solar energy drive but also enhances evaporation efficiency by capturing environmental energy from the side and then using natural convection. At an air velocity of 6 m s⁻¹, the evaporation rate reaches 2.32 kg m⁻² h⁻¹. After continuous operation for 192 h, the biomimetic evaporator maintains stable evaporation performance and successfully separates metal salt pollutants from the washing solution of HMCS. The removal rates of heavy metal ions Pb²⁺, Cr³⁺, Cd²⁺, Zn²⁺, and Hg²⁺ in polluted soil are 53 %, 59 %, 60 %, 62 %, and 84 %, respectively. Compared to untreated control soil, the concentrations of Pb²⁺, Hg²⁺, Cr³⁺, Zn²⁺, and Cd²⁺ in the roots of pea treated with solar evaporation remediation decreased by 66.4 %, 31.6 %, 31.1 %, 29.0 %, and 8.3 %, respectively. This study provides a potential new approach and method for the sustainable, low-cost, and low-energy remediation of HMCS using solar evaporation technology.

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  • Citations: 13
• Journal article
  Phillips E, Picott K, Kümmel S, Bulka O, Edwards E, Wang P-H, Gehre M, Nijenhuis I, Lollar BSet al., 2024,

  Vitamin B12 as a source of variability in isotope effects for chloroform biotransformation by Dehalobacter.

  , Microbiologyopen, Vol: 13

  Carbon and chlorine isotope effects for biotransformation of chloroform by different microbes show significant variability. Reductive dehalogenases (RDase) enzymes contain different cobamides, affecting substrate preferences, growth yields, and dechlorination rates and extent. We investigate the role of cobamide type on carbon and chlorine isotopic signals observed during reductive dechlorination of chloroform by the RDase CfrA. Microcosm experiments with two subcultures of a Dehalobacter-containing culture expressing CfrA-one with exogenous cobamide (Vitamin B12, B12+) and one without (to drive native cobamide production)-resulted in a markedly smaller carbon isotope enrichment factor (εC, bulk) for B12- (-22.1 ± 1.9‰) compared to B12+ (-26.8 ± 3.2‰). Both cultures exhibited significant chlorine isotope fractionation, and although a lower εCl, bulk was observed for B12- (-6.17 ± 0.72‰) compared to B12+ (-6.86 ± 0.77‰) cultures, these values are not statistically different. Importantly, dual-isotope plots produced identical slopes of ΛCl/C (ΛCl/C, B12+ = 3.41 ± 0.15, ΛCl/C, B12- = 3.39 ± 0.15), suggesting the same reaction mechanism is involved in both experiments, independent of the lower cobamide bases. A nonisotopically fractionating masking effect may explain the smaller fractionations observed for the B12- containing culture.

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• Report
  Jennings N, Brandmayr C, 2024,

  How can action to tackle climate change improve people’s health and save the NHS money?

  To achieve Net Zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 and contribute to global efforts to avoid the worst consequences of climate change, policies are required that reduce emissions across the whole of UK society including the transport, housing and agriculture sectors. Climate action could play an important role in helping to reduce existing health inequalities, improving public health and responding to the high levels of pressure on the NHS.

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• Report
  Lawrance E, Newberry Le Vay J, El Omrani O, Howitt P, Jennings N, Meinsma N, Watson Det al., 2024,

  Global Agenda for Research and Action in Climate Change and Mental Health

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• Journal article
  Greene SM, Schachat SR, Arita-Merino N, Cao XE, Gurnani H, Heyns M, Cagigas ML, Maikawa CL, Needham EJ, Perets EA, Phillips E, Waddle AW, Wilkinson CE, Zhou KC, Zlotnick HMet al., 2024,

  Accessible interview practices for disabled scientists and engineers

  , ISCIENCE, Vol: 27
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• Journal article
  Rao RR, Bucci A, Corby S, Moss B, Liang C, Gopakumar A, Stephens IEL, Lloret-Fillol J, Durrant JRet al., 2024,

  Unraveling the Role of Particle Size and Nanostructuring on the Oxygen Evolution Activity of Fe-Doped NiO

  , ACS CATALYSIS, Vol: 14, Pages: 11389-11399, ISSN: 2155-5435
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• Journal article
  Liang C, Rao RR, Svane KL, Hadden JHL, Moss B, Scott SB, Sachs M, Murawski J, Frandsen AM, Riley DJ, Ryan MP, Rossmeisl J, Durrant JR, Stephens IELet al., 2024,

  Unravelling the effects of active site density and energetics on the water oxidation activity of iridium oxides

  , Nature Catalysis, Vol: 7, Pages: 763-775, ISSN: 2520-1158

  Understanding what controls the reaction rate on iridium-based catalysts is central to designing better electrocatalysts for the water oxidation reaction in proton exchange membrane electrolysers. Here we quantify the densities of redox-active centres and probe their binding strengths on amorphous IrOx and rutile IrO2 using operando time-resolved optical spectroscopy. We establish a quantitative experimental correlation between the intrinsic reaction rate and the active-state energetics. We find that adsorbed oxygen species, *O, formed at water oxidation potentials, exhibit repulsive adsorbate–adsorbate interactions. Increasing their coverage weakens their binding, thereby promoting O–O bond formation, which is the rate-determining step. These analyses suggest that although amorphous IrOx exhibits a higher geometric current density, the intrinsic reaction rates per active state on IrOx and IrO2 are comparable at given potentials. Finally, we present a modified volcano plot that elucidates how the intrinsic water oxidation kinetics can be increased by optimizing both the binding energy and the interaction strength between the catalytically active states.

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• Report
  Rhodes A, Moustafa N, Wyn Owen M, 2024,

  EFL White Paper - Nuclear in the UK

  , Future of Nuclear in the UK: Challenges and Opportunities
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• Report
  Moustafa N, Rhodes A, Wyn Owen M, 2024,

  EFL White Paper - Nuclear in the UK

  , The Future of Nuclear in the UK: Challenges and Opportunities, Publisher: Energy Futures Lab

  A growth globally in population and living standards is driving an increase in energy consumption worldwide. The drivers for energy include essential large-scale power generation, industrial activity, and increased transportation capabilities. These activities come with staggering carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, exacerbating the already significant cumulative totals which are resulting in a global rise in temperature. Currently, the main sources for global electrical energy generation comes from thermal power using coal and natural gas followed by hydro-electric plants, nuclear power with remaining energy being produced from biomass, geothermal, wind, solar and marine energy.Nuclear energy is a low-carbon source of electricity production and is the second largest source of low carbon electricity production globally after hydropower. Nuclear power accounts for 10% of the world’s electricity generation and 18% of electricity in OECD countries. Almost all reports from governments and organisations consider nuclear power as required to create a sustainable future energy system. An IEA report published in 2022, concluded that achieving net-zero targets globally will be significantly harder and more expensive without nuclear energy. The UK currently generates ~15% of its electricity from about 6.5 GW of nuclear capacity. However, most existing capacity will be shut down in the next 10 years. Where current government plans have ambitions for nuclear power to reach 25% of electricity production. Hence there is a need to investigate current and future nuclear power technologies, their technology readiness level, costs and required policy and funding mechanisms to enhance nuclear power generation and ensure British energy security. This research evaluated the prospects for new nuclear power generation to provide a significant proportion of UK generation, showing a rigorous, evidence-based evaluation of realistic timescales, costings and funding mechanisms and required s

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• Report
  Pinto I, Barnes C, Philip S, Kew S, Cerezo-Mota R, Tannenbaum A, Winkley S, Pershing A, Vahlberg M, Pereira Marghidan C, Izquierdo K, Sivanu S, Keith L, Kleeman M, Otto F, Avila Flores B, Arroyo Barrantes S, Singh R, Mistry M, Kimutai Jet al., 2024,

  Extreme heat killing more than 100 people in Mexico hotter and much more likely due to climate change

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• Report
  Zachariah M, Saeed F, Barnes C, Clarke B, Vahlberg M, Thalheimer L, Otto F, Philip S, Kew S, Singh R, Rodriguez LC, Zeb A, Khan Aet al., 2024,

  Increasing April-May rainfall, El Niño and high vulnerability behind deadly flooding in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran

  , Publisher: Centre for Environmental Policy
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• Report
  Rogelj J, Stern N, Zenghelis D, Valero A, Ekins P, Bell K, Qadrdan M, Cipcigan L, Hampton S, Whitmarsh L, Moorcroft Het al., 2024,

  The truth about climate action in the UK: dispelling common myths to underline the importance of acting on net zero

  To help unpack the evidence and provide greater clarity about what is fact and what is false, this collection of essays authored by academics from across the UK explores a range of topics that are often featured in public and policy discussion on climate change.The essays outline the key evidence on climate science, the economic implications of climate action, the performance and costs of technologies and infrastructure to reduce emissions, and public attitudes to net zero.

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• Report
  Brandmayr C, Bird J, Jennings N, Gilbert A, Ward B, Burke J, Mercer L, Serin Eet al., 2024,

  General Election 2024: climate change priorities for the next UK Government

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• Journal article
  Lee H, Kim K-H, Rao RR, Park DG, Choi WH, Choi JH, Kim DW, Jung DH, Stephens IEL, Durrant JR, Kang JKet al., 2024,

  A hydrogen radical pathway for efficacious electrochemical nitrate reduction to ammonia over an Fe-polyoxometalate/Cu electrocatalyst

  , MATERIALS HORIZONS, ISSN: 2051-6347
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• Report
  Clarke B, Barnes C, Rodrigues R, Zachariah M, Alves LM, Haarsma R, Pinto I, Yang W, Vahlberg M, Vecchi G, Izquierdo K, Kimutai J, Otto F, Philip S, Kew S, Singh R, Biehl J, Mugge Met al., 2024,

  Climate change, El Niño and infrastructure failures behind massive floods in southern Brazil

  , Publisher: Centre for Environmental Policy
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• Journal article
  Quilodran-Casas C, Li Q, Zhang N, Cheng S, Yan S, Ma Q, Arcucci Ret al., 2024,

  Exploring unseen 3D scenarios of physics variables using machine learning-based synthetic data: An application to wave energy converters

  , ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE, Vol: 177, ISSN: 1364-8152
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• Journal article
  Holm DD, Hu R, Street OD, 2024,

  Geometric mechanics of the vertical slice model

  , Geometric Mechanics, Vol: 01, Pages: 77-121, ISSN: 2972-4589

  <jats:p> The goals of this work are to: (i) investigate the dynamics of oceanic frontogenesis by taking advantage of the geometric mechanics underlying the class of Vertical Slice Models (VSMs) of ocean dynamics and (ii) illustrate the versatility and utility of deterministic and stochastic variational approaches by deriving several variants of wave–current interaction models which describe the effects of internal waves propagating within a vertical planar slice embedded in a 3D region of constant horizontal gradient of buoyancy in the direction transverse to the vertical plane. </jats:p>

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• Journal article
  Rai UJ, Oluleye G, Hawkes A, 2024,

  Stochastic optimisation model to determine the optimal contractual capacity of a distributed energy resource offered in a balancing services contract to maximise profit

  , Energy Reports, Vol: 11, Pages: 5800-5818, ISSN: 2352-4847

  In the realm of grid balancing services, determining the generation capacity of a distributed energy resource for contractual agreements with the system operator is pivotal. However, prevalent heuristic or deterministic methodologies employed by demand response aggregators often lack risk assessment and may not optimize generation capacity allocation. Consequently, the potential for maximizing utilization profits remains untapped. This paper addresses these limitations and explains the necessity of using the optimal generation capacity of a grid-connected distributed energy resource which is also fulfilling site electricity demand to maximise profit and mitigate penalties both for demand response aggregators and their clients. Demand response aggregators provide these services to the system operator on behalf of their clients whose electrical generation assets they utilize on a profit-sharing basis. The primary challenge investigated in this study lies in effectively managing the uncertainty surrounding both site electricity demand and short-term operating reserve calls by the system operator through a novel two-step approach. Firstly, a demand bin characterization technique is employed to account for site demand uncertainty. Subsequently, a stochastic model utilizing mixed integer nonlinear programming is developed using the General Algebraic Modeling System, incorporating five years of uncertainty regarding the frequency of short-term operating reserve calls which makes it instrumental and novel in determining optimal contractual generation capacity in a balancing service contract, as well as associated profits and penalties, under varying utilization prices. This distinctiveness positions it as an advancement over and distinct from deterministic approaches. Case study results demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed stochastic model in comparison to deterministic methods utilized in prior research. Specifically, the stochastic model yields a realistic profit incr

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  El Omrani O, Massazza A, Fleury J, Funani A, Guluzade N, Jatene I, Lawrance E, Jennings N, Souza de Camargo T, Vergunst F, Vicente dos Santos Ferreira Jet al., 2024,

  Submission by The Climate Cares Centre and United for Global Mental Health to the Expert Dialogue on Children and Climate Change

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  Vrkic D, 2024,

  Test Dora

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  Bird J, 2024,

  Autumn and winter storms in the UK 2023-24

  , Grantham Institute background briefing, Publisher: Imperial Grantham Institute

  Key points• Rainfall during autumn and winter storms in the UK and Ireland in 2023/24 was made around 20% more intense by human-caused climate change. • The total volume of rainfall experienced over the October 2023 – March 2024 period increased by about 15% compared to the preindustrial climate. • Rainfall intensity and volume are expected to continue to worsen unless greenhouse gas emissions are rapidly reduced. • A range of factors, including health, economic, social, discrimination and geographic features can impact people’s level of risk from flooding, with risk of harm especially high in cases where multiple risk factors intersect. • The Government has not yet set a long-term resilience target for flooding, and policy measures to build resilience have so far fallen short. In late 2023 and early 2024, the UK and Ireland experienced a very active storm season. The countries were affected by 13-14 severe storms. Storms Babet, Ciarán, Henk and Isha were some of the most damaging in Ireland and the UK, leading to severe floods, at least 13 deaths, severe damages to homes and infrastructure, power outages, travel cancellations, and loss of crops and livestock.

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  Kimutai J, Barnes C, Masambaya F, Pinto I, Mwai Z, Wangari H, Ogega OM, Kilavi M, Vahlberg M, Arrighi J, Raju E, Baumgart N, Otto F, Zachariah M, Philip S, Singh R, Jjemba E, Mawanda Set al., 2024,

  Urban planning at the heart of increasingly severe East African flood impacts in a warming world

  , Publisher: Centre for Environmental Policy
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