In this section
ICEPT staff and PhD students publish widely in a range of academic journals, policy reports and technical papers.
@article{Lamboll:2026:10.1038/s41558-026-02685-y,
author = {Lamboll, RD and Rogelj, J},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-026-02685-y},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
pages = {907--910},
title = {Future-proofing interpretations of the Paris Agreement’s limit of well below 2 °C},
url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-026-02685-y},
volume = {16},
year = {2026}
}
TY - JOUR
AB - The Paris Agreement’s ‘well below 2 °C’ target is often interpreted as holding warming below 2 °C with a probability in the 66–90% range. We argue that such interpretations are not future-proof as decreasing uncertainties with time will allow temperatures to approach 2 °C later in the century. We show how referring to median warming can resolve this issue and illustrate how past probabilistic target interpretations would translate to a median 1.65–1.8 °C warming limit range.
AU - Lamboll,RD
AU - Rogelj,J
DO - 10.1038/s41558-026-02685-y
EP - 910
PY - 2026///
SN - 1758-678X
SP - 907
TI - Future-proofing interpretations of the Paris Agreement’s limit of well below 2 °C
T2 - Nature Climate Change
UR - http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-026-02685-y
VL - 16
ER -