Complexity and risk in the energy sector

Energy Futures Lab and the Sustainable Gas Institute hosts the annual networking meeting of the Institute of Physics’ Nonlinear and Complex Physics Group.

The aim of this free event is to bring together participants with an interest in understanding and modelling risks in the energy sector. There will be a focus on how Integrated Assessment models and Energy Systems models can be used to understand risk.

To register and submit an abstract please email Daniel Crow or Emma Suckling .

Description

Energy security plays an essential role both in alleviating poverty in developing countries and in maintaining growth and prosperity in the developed world. Yet the national and global infrastructures that deliver energy are changing rapidly in the face of new and unprecedented challenges. The biggest of these stem from the need to meet ever-increasing global demand for energy services whilst simultaneously reducing CO2 emissions caused by burning fossil fuels.

Responding to these challenges will likely involve increased deployment of renewables in the energy mix, perhaps combined with a growing reliance on transported natural gas, nuclear energy and carbon capture technologies. The risks to energy security associated with this new energy landscape will need to be understood from a number of perspectives, ranging from the effects of policy and regulation on energy price and availability to the impact of weather and climate change on energy supply and demand.

Keynote speakers:

• David Brayshaw (University of Reading)- Weather- and climate-related risks to the energy sector
• Dr Simon Tindemans (Imperial College London) – Managing risks in a bottom-up electricity system

Agenda

• 11:00 – Registration & Coffee
• 11:30 – David Brayshaw, Reading: “Understanding climate risk in the energy sector”
• 12:15 – Hannah Bloomfield, Reading: “The impact of climate variability on the GB power system”
• 12:40 – Oluwamayowa Amusat, UCL: “Standalone renewable energy systems: inter-year variability in systems sizing”
• 13:05 – Lunch (provided)
• 14:15 – Simon Tindeman, Imperial: “Managing risks in a bottom-up electricity system”
• 15:00 – Paul Balcombe, Imperial: “Distribution of m ethane and CO2 emissions from the natural gas supply chain”
• 15:25 – Ellen Webborn, Warwick: “Exploring the risk of synchronisation of distributed demand-side response resources”
• 15:50 – Tea and Cakes
• 16:25 Steven Black, BAE Systems: “A quantitative approach to risk perception associated with Nuclear Safety”
• 16:50 Nick Watkins, Warwick: “On bunched black swans and return times in climate and other time series”
• 17:15 Drinks & Discussion
• 18:30 Close

Abstracts

Contributions are invited from participants at any career stage working across related disciplines to share their relevant research.

Abstract submission deadline: 7 October 2016
Registration deadline: 24 October 2016

Venue

Room 3.01 D&E in the Royal School of Mines in building 12 on the campus map.

The quickest way there is to enter the college from the entrance on Prince Consort Road Road. Take the stairs up to the third floor and it is on the left hand side through a set of double doors.