A Royal Meteorological Society National Meeting sponsored by the Grantham Institute.
Chaos leads to uncertainty in weather forecasts, which grows the further into the future we try to predict. This meeting aims to discuss how chaos is taken into account in order to assign confidence levels (and probabilities) to weather forecasts. It will also cover how such “probabilistic” forecasts are assessed, and how they can be used by industry and the public.
This meeting is open to all and will be accessible to a broad audience.
Come along to our Christmas meeting and enjoy networking, mince pies and mulled wine.
Remote Participation (CloudCast) (simultaneous audio and PowerPoint presentations) is available at this meeting. Access to the web conferencing is free and is open to members and non members but requires prior registration.
Programme
2.00 Welcome, Dr Anna Ghelli FRMetS ECMWF
2.05 Chaos in weather forecasting, Prof Lenny Smith LSE
2.35 The science of chaos and modelling of uncertainty, Prof Tim Palmer CBE Oxford
3.05 Evaluating forecast uncertainty, Dr Mark Rodwell ECMWF
3.35 Coffee and mince pies, Met Office & ECMWF movie-loops
4.20 Working with uncertainty and confidence,Renate Hagedorn DWD
4.50 Confidence in weather forecasts
Discussion and voting on competition entries John Hammond BBC / Met Office
5.40 Meeting close