Dengue virus has circulated endemically in many global sub-tropical regions for decades. In Thailand for example, all four serotypes co-circulate throughout the year. This results in complex patterns of disease where the underlying patterns of viral flow, critical for targeted control efforts, are largely hidden due to the presence of many overlapping discrete transmission chains. Further, complex immunological interactions between serotypes means the observed distribution of symptomatic cases may be very different from underlying patterns of infection, complicating efforts to assess overall infection and disease risk. In this context, genetic and antigenic data can help. I will present analyses using methods applied to thousands of geolocated viral sequences collected over many years from Thailand and surrounding countries to identify underlying spread of dengue at local, national and international scales. I will also present models applied to detailed antigenic data from cohorts that use data augmentation techniques to reconstruct, in parallel, individual-level antibody trajectories and infection histories, allowing to identify correlates of risk for infection and disease.
Henrik Salje is a a Chargé de Recherche in the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit at Institut Pasteur in February 2017.