Energy Transition Commentary 16

Jackdaw

The Jackdaw field approval is good news for UK energy security and jobs, contributing to a just energy transition. However, for it to be an effective bridge to a lower carbon future, it must be accompanied by steps to reduce UK gas consumption.

Jackdaw is a gas and condensate field with reserves of roughly 120–250 million barrels of oil equivalent (boe) [1]. At the planned peak of 40,000 boe/d, the gas output is around 1.5–2.4 bcm a year, or about 6% of current UK production, over a life of up to 11 years [2, 3].  It will improve energy security by reducing gas imports, some of them from Norway extracted from the same North Sea, some from the US as LNG.

The balance-of-payments case is straightforward. The UK imported about 60% of its gas in 2024 [4], and at recent forward prices of 3.2–4.1 p/kWh [5], peak output is worth £0.5–1.3 billion a year in displaced imports. The value to the UK is smaller than that gross figure, because some of the profit goes to the Shell and Equinor joint venture, which is partly overseas-owned. It also sits alongside jobs, tax receipts and continued use of the Shearwater hub. Gas from this field also has a lower carbon footprint than imported LNG: NSTA puts production and transport emissions at 28 kgCO2/boe for North Sea gas against 85 kgCO2/boe for LNG [4], though once combustion is included the full-lifecycle difference is nearer 15% [6]. The continuing use of gas has already been factored in to the UK carbon budgets to achieve net-zero by 2050 so if anything exploiting Jackdaw will reduce CO2 emissions compared with those previously projected.

However, a field of this size cannot cut bills. Gas is priced on the international market, and an extra 2% to 6% of supply does not change that. It also depletes within a decade.

However, this decision should not be read as a loosening of climate objectives.  Where Jackdaw gas is burned outside the home, in power stations, industrial heat or hydrogen production, this needs to be done with carbon capture and storage, and the UK now has the Track-1 and Track-2 clusters to make that possible [7]. Gas burned in domestic boilers cannot be captured, so that use has to be phased out as quickly as practical and replaced with heat pumps. That means the Boiler Upgrade Scheme must not be cut in next week's Budget, as is reportedly being considered [8]; removing it would undermine the case for producing the gas in the first place.

The UK's housing stock is among the leakiest in Europe, losing heat up to three times faster than homes on the continent [9, 10], and domestic use is the largest single demand for gas at 37% [11]. A roughly 10% reduction in domestic gas demand would displace about as much as Jackdaw's peak output, and a serious retrofit programme could go well beyond that, permanently, with no depletion curve.

So, Jackdaw is a sensible bridge, but only if urgency goes into insulation, CCS and electrification; the money Jackdaw generates should help pay for them.

Jackdaw References
[1] Oil & Gas Journal, Jackdaw consent and reserves: https://ogj.com/exploration-development/article/14277588/shell-receives-approval-for-jackdaw
[2] DESNZ statement via The Scotsman, 21 Oct 2026: https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/jackdaw-gas-field-north-sea-andy-burnham-uk-labour-government-9300243
[3] Offshore Engineer, 40,000 boe/d peak: https://www.oedigital.com/amp/news/542764-uk-set-to-clear-jackdaw-gas-field-for-production
[4] NSTA, gas emissions footprint analysis, Sept 2025: https://www.nstauthority.co.uk/the-move-to-net-zero/net-zero-benchmarking-and-analysis/natural-gas-emissions-footprint-analysis
[5] Catalyst Commercial, UK wholesale gas prices: https://www.catalyst-commercial.co.uk/wholesale-gas-prices/
[6] LBC fact check on LNG vs North Sea gas: https://www.lbc.co.uk/business/e4a75eab469c481a8bd6399552b7d541
[7] New Civil Engineer, Spending Review CCUS funding: https://www.newcivilengineer.com/latest/spending-review-9-4bn-for-carbon-capture-usage-and-storage-projects-11-06-2025/
[8] Energy Switch, possible BUS cuts before 28 Oct Budget: https://www.energyswitch.co.uk/guides/boiler-upgrade-scheme-cuts-budget-2026/
[9] tado° heat-loss study, 2020: https://www.tado.com/en/press/uk-homes-losing-heat-up-to-three-times-faster-than-european-neighbours
[10] Imperial Grantham Institute, Acha et al., 2022: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/242271/uk-behind-european-countries-home-upgrades/
[11] DUKES 2026, Chapter 4: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6a69f4232c4b5ba9d1242a67/DUKES_2026_Chapter_4.pdf

 

Rosebank

The remaining elephant in the room is the decision on the Rosebank field, 80 miles to the northwest of the Shetlands.  This is much bigger than Jackdaw, holding between 300 and 500 mboe, 90% of which is oil and the rest gas.  The jobs, tax revenues and UK investment arguments for UK benefits are as strong and larger than for Jackdaw. The project involves over £6bn direct investment in the UK over its lifetime, supporting over 1600 jobs at the height of construction and around 450 UK-based jobs over the lifetime of the field.  It would also boost UK domestic gas production by a further 2% (1.2m m3 per day), directed to mainland Scotland via the West of Shetland pipeline. The major difference to Jackdaw is that most of the oil extracted will be exported abroad (mainly to the Netherlands and Belgium) to be refined because the UK’s four remaining refineries are unable, without huge new investment, to process the type of heavier, more viscous oil Rosebank will produce, compared with the lighter oils produced from the likes of Brent and Forties in the North Sea’s heyday. Some argue therefore that this does nothing for the UK’s energy security.  However, recent months have shown our vulnerability to the overseas supply of oil, particularly road diesel and jet fuel of which to meet demand we need to import over 13m tonnes pa (see our recent Energy Transition Commentary #15).  So feeding our oil into the refineries of our near-European neighbours, who supply most of our imported oil products, indirectly reduces our vulnerability to diesel and jet fuel supply restrictions from further afield. Hopefully those refineries will in time be fitted with carbon capture and storage to decarbonise their fuel production.  As with gas, if we are going to need to continue using road diesel and jet fuel to sustain parts of our economy for decades, better to have some control over our access to supply, with enhanced jobs and economic benefits, than be increasingly vulnerable to supply disruptions from the Middle East and the USA.  

Furthermore, the Floating Production, Storage and Offloading vessel (FPSO) to which the Rosebank subsea wells are tied back will be electrification-ready, which has the potential to reduce production emissions from Rosebank by over 70%. Prior to electrification it will produce oil at about 12 kg CO2 per bbl, reducing to less than 3 kg CO2 per bbl after electrification, compared with the North Sea average of around 20 kg CO2, making a major reduction in the  carbon footprint of our oil production over the North Sea’s remaining decades. There will be additional CO2 emissions from the transport of the oil to near-European refineries but those resulting from the import of the refined diesel and jet fuel products and their use in powering long-distance transport will not change much from the current situation where we import 55% of our diesel and 70% of our jet fuel.

So overall, the case for giving the go-ahead to produce the Rosebank field, centred on more domestic gas supply, UK jobs, UK investment, supply chain work and benefits to the wider European oil-products system on which the UK is so dependent, is just as strong as for Jackdaw with the effect on CO2 emissions small compared with the current situation and already factored into future UK carbon budgets.   Let us hope that the ‘pragmatic’ holistic approach to ensuring a just and achievable energy transition for the UK demonstrated this week by the Jackdaw decision prevails when the government announces a decision on production from Rosebank in a few weeks time.

Rosebank sources:

  1. Will production from Rosebank benefit the UK?  https://northseafacts.co.uk/energy-security/will-production-from-rosebank-benefit-the-uk
  1. https://www.gov.uk/government/news/jackdaw-gas-field-gets-green-light
  2. What does the government’s Jackdaw decision mean for Rosebank? | The Independent
  3. What is the Rosebank oilfield and why is it so controversial https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/what-rosebank-oil-field-equinor-shetland-cpfphfxl3
  1. Adura – Rosebank  https://adura.com/projects/rosebank/

 

Professor Martin Blunt, Professor of Flow in Porous Media

Professor Paul Fennell, Professor of Clean Energy

Professor Niall Mac Dowell, Professor of Energy Systems Engineering

Professor Geoffrey Maitland, Professor of Energy Engineering

Professor Ann Muggeridge, Professor of Subsurface Physics

Professor Ronny Pini, Professor of Multiphase Systems

Professor Martin Trusler, Professor of Thermophysics

Imperial College London, Transition to Net Zero Group