The lecture will be followed by a drinks reception from 7pm in the foyer of the Blackett Laboratory (the Department of Physics).
Please forward this invitation on to anyone who may be interested.
If you will be attending the event, please register no later than 6 January.
Abstract
We all have to juggle ‘rational’ and ‘emotional’ responses to risk and uncertainty, and good two-way communication should mean that audiences become more immune to misleading anecdotes. When we are fairly happy about putting numbers on risks, then there are established methods for using words, numbers and graphics, and I shall briefly look at recent work in various fields, including communicating the benefits and harms of cancer screening.
Things get trickier when we acknowledge we don’t really understand what is going on, and have qualms about a formal analysis. I will compare about how different groups – such as security, toxicology, health care, climate change, finance and so on – have come up with different strategies for communicating these deeper uncertainties, and consider some proposed ‘scales’ expressing confidence in analyses.
Biography
David Spiegelhalter is Winton Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk at the University of Cambridge and Senior Scientist in the MRC Biostatistics Unit. His background is in medical statistics, particularly the use of Bayesian methods in clinical trials, health technology assessment and drug safety. He led the statistical team in the Bristol Royal Infirmary Inquiry and also gave evidence to the Shipman Inquiry.
In his post he leads a small team (UnderstandingUncertainty.org) which attempts to improve the way in which the quantitative aspects of risk and uncertainty are discussed in society. He works closely with the Millennium Mathematics Project in trying to bring risk and uncertainty into education. He gives many presentations to schools and others, advises organisations on risk communication, and is a regular newspaper columnist on current risk issues.
He was elected FRS in 2005 and awarded an OBE in 2006 for services to medical statistics.
Further info can be found on the event webpage.