Summary:

The Grantham Institute at Imperial College London has been developing its Grantham-TIAM model for the past year as a part of the AVOID2 programme. The Grantham Institute is leading the analysis on Work Package C which seeks to answer the question “What is the feasibility of pathways which will avoid dangerous climate change”. The initial phase has been to run a suite of scenarios aimed at limiting global warming to different levels by 2100 (with the focus on 2, 2.5, 3 and 4 degrees Celsius) using carbon budgets derived from UK Met Office analysis. These scenarios have been compared to those produced by other IAMs run by our collaborators (IIASA, which runs the MESSAGE and GAINS models, and FEEM, which runs the WITCH model). The scenarios are intended to highlight which technologies are deployed, and at what costs, both globally and in different regions. Global Energy Systems models have become increasingly popular as tools for decision-makers to investigate long-term pathways for decarbonisation. However, owing to their high level of detail and complexity, policy makers and other end users do not always understand the key drivers behind the results. In addition to giving an introduction to energy systems modelling in general and the Grantham-TIAM model, this talk will present the results from the first set of scenarios and discuss the challenges of ‘stretching the model’ to meet deep decarbonisation targets out to 2100 and the importance of transparency when presenting these results.

Biography:

Dr Tamaryn Napp is a research associate at the Grantham Institute. Since joining the institute in 2010, her research has focussed on decarbonisation pathways for industry – investigating the technologies, costs and policies for reducing emissions from industrial processes. Last year, Tamaryn spent the year in South Africa on LoA from Imperial working with the Energy Research Centre at the University of Cape Town. During this time, she worked on a model of the industrial sector for their national energy system’s model (SATIM). She is now working as the lead modeller for the AVOID2 programme, developing the Grantham-TIAM model.