Most decision models assume (explicitly or implicitly) that the key parameters – probabilities and outcomes – are known, or can be estimated accurately. In reality many of these parameters cannot be specified with the level of precision expected by the models. Ellsberg (1961) was one of the first researchers to demonstrate the impact of incomplete information on decisions, and his famous paradox has engendered a large body of empirical and theoretical work.
In this talk David will review some of his own work on (a) decisions with imprecise probabilities and / or outcomes, (b) preference for various communication modes in the presence of imprecision, and (c) ways to improve the quality of communication involving imprecise values. Some of this work was motivated by issues related to communication and decisions about global climate change and I will discuss the implication of the results in this domain.
Author Background:
David V. Budescu is the Anne Anastasi Professor of Psychometrics and Quantitative Psychology at Fordham University in New York. He held positions at the University of Illinois and the University of Haifa, and visiting positions at Carnegie Mellon University, University of Gotheborg, the Hebrew University and the Israel Institute of Technology (Technion). His research is in the areas of human judgment, individual and group decision making under uncertainty and with incomplete and vague information, and statistics for the behavioral and social sciences. He is on the editorial boards of Applied Psychological Measurement; Journal of Behavioral Decision Making; Journal of Mathematical Psychology; Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory & Cognition (2000-2003); Multivariate Behavioral Research; Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes (1992-2002); and Psychological Methods (1996-2000). He is past president of the Society for Judgment and Decision Making (2000-2001), fellow of the American Psychological Society, and an elected member of the Society of Multivariate Experimental Psychologists.