The seasonal cycle of precipitation is of key societal importance in Eastern Africa, impacting sectors including agriculture, health and energy. Recent declines in the long rains are linked to changes in seasonal timing, with an earlier end of the season linked to changes in the Arabian Heat Low. Generally, climate models exhibit biases in representing the seasonal cycle of precipitation over East Africa, with a wet bias during the short rains. The representation is found to be improved when using convection-permitting simulations. Future projections indicate increased precipitation during the short rains, and a later end to the short rains.
This seminar will be a hybrid event, with in-person attendees invited to watch in Huxley 711c.