Net Zero Policy Design: Deep Uncertainty, Humility and Ethics
It has become increasingly evident that the realisation of Net Zero by 2050 will require the ability for strategy developers, operational planners and decision makers to better manage uncertainty, complexity and emergence. It is also becoming ever apparent that the application of the conventional orthodox set of decision support tools and processes that have been used to explore deep decarbonisation options to 2050 have obscured decision makers from the enormity of the uncertainty, complexity and emergence which pervades the net zero decision space. Tools have often been used which are inappropriate. This lack of competency has been glaringly revealed during the Covid Pandemic which had uncertainty characteristics similar to climate change and net zero albeit with more immediate impacts.
This talk will explore the following questions regarding Climate Change and Net Zero with attendees:
- Are we seriously underestimating the extent of uncertainty?
- Are we asking the right questions?
- Are we using the right tools for strategic decision making?
Uncannily, the Bernanke review of the failures of the Bank of England to forecast the extent of UK inflation in 2022 and the outputs of the first report of the Covid-19 Inquiry have come up with many of the insights that will be explored in this talk.
Speaker
Mark Workman is a director of Foresight Transitions Ltd and an Affiliate Researcher at Imperial College London where he conducts research on the NERC funded CO2RE Directorate Hub. He also works with a team that uses interdisciplinary methods and human-centred design approaches to assess uncertainty, risk and opportunities in different possible futures specialising in systemic risk, deep uncertainty and exploratory approaches to net zero and decision making more broadly. He is a Coastal Engineer, Military and Business Leader, Environmental Economist and Strategist by training. He has undertaken military tours, led extreme and high-risk expeditions all over the world and run multi-million-dollar business units. He has two military awards for leadership.
When asked whether Mark has achieved anything of significance in his undistinguished career – of the 3 people who were canvased that might have known – the following was relevant: one had died, another sectioned under the mental health act and the third is Mark, and he has forgotten.
About Energy Futures Lab
Energy Futures Lab is one of seven Global Institutes at Imperial College London. The institute was established to address global energy challenges by identifying and leading new opportunities to serve industry, government and society at large through high quality research, evidence and advocacy for positive change. The institute aims to promote energy innovation and advance systemic solutions for a sustainable energy future by bringing together the science, engineering and policy expertise at Imperial and fostering collaboration with a wide variety of external partners.