Introduction to Catastrophic Modelling and Coastal Surge Risk
The presentation aims to introduce students to catastrophic modelling, focusing on coastal surge risk. It will cover the relevance of catastrophic modelling in the insurance industry, fundamental concepts of insurance and re-insurance, and how risk is defined. The discussion will delve into the building blocks of catastrophic modelling with a focus on tropical cyclone surge modelling along the Atlantic coast of the US. We will explore the building blocks of a coastal flood model and different classes of models that capture the appropriate physics. Major drivers of flooding, particularly wind, will be highlighted. Additionally, pragmatic considerations for calibrating a coastal surge model will be addressed, including how engineering judgment underpins validation. By the end of the presentation, students will have a high level understanding of catastrophic modelling and coastal surge risk.
Short Bio:
George Pouliasis is a Catastrophe Modeller at Moody’s RMS, specializing in the simulation of coastal hazard. Previously, George was working as a Metocean Engineer in HR Wallingford’s Coasts and Oceans group, where he participated in wave modelling studies in more than 10 countries on a variety of civil engineering projects. George’s expertise lie at the interface between statistics and numerical modelling. He has performed research in the fields of flood risk, wave-structure interaction and dependence modelling and has published in peer reviewed journals. George holds an MSc in Hydraulic Engineering from Delft University of Technology and a Diploma in Civil Engineering from NTUA.